PCS getting some 30 thoughts love. Interesting views from traditional scouts
http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-thoughts-panthers-chart-bold-new-direction/
In December, the Panthers hired Cam Lawrence and Josh Weissbock on a part-time basis. Lawrence, who once used the Twitter handle @MoneyPuck_, is Chief Financial Officer of a private company. Weissbock works for Canada’s Department of Defence. Smart people and hockey fans, they worked to create a drafting model called “Prospect Cohort Success†(PCS).
Basic explanation of PCS: Determine a prospect’s size, point production, age and what league he plays in. Then, cross-reference it with all available data to determine historical comparables. The idea is to say, “Okay, we’re looking at an 18-year-old, 6-foot-5 kid with 68 points in 65 games in the OHL. What can we reasonably expect him to do?†The model goes through history to find any/all similar player(s), and how they fared as a professional. It is a fascinating in-depth project, an attempt to decipher how pre-NHL production explains NHL production. I’ve read about it and am intrigued.
The Panthers plan to implement it in their drafting process.
According to some scouts on other clubs (none of Florida’s would discuss it), Lawrence recently met with the Panthers’ guys. When I heard this, I assumed this summit would be a disaster, but was pleasantly surprised to learn things were respectful and professional — from both sides.
What no one seems to be able to answer, though, is: who makes the final call? Their recent drafts were run by director of player personnel Scott Luce. Will the decision remain his? Or, do they go off the PCS list?
“The question is,†according to an executive from another club, “Is this analytics with scouting? Or, is it scouting with analytics? Big difference.â€
From what I understand, Lawrence/Weissbock do recognize the limitations with their data. Heights and weights can be unreliable, especially from overseas. (Basketball suffers the same problem.) Some leagues don’t have a ton of history. One example is Russia’s junior circuit, the MHL, in existence since 2009-10. There is a prospect from that league who might be available in the first round when Florida is picking: German Rubtsov. It’d be a mistake to make a yes/no decision on him without personal visits.
Despite that, word is Florida’s current scouts are wary of where this is going. They are skeptical and feel they will be either let go or encouraged to pursue alternate employment. There will be demand for their services.
It’s a funny time around the NHL. More and more owners use analytics in their “regular†businesses, so they are open to it in hockey. But, even those who consider themselves analytics aficionados fight a battle over whose metrics really work.
