Proposal: 2015-2016 Season Trade Rumours & Proposals | Part XII

[topshelf15]

I'm worried about MacArthur tbh.

My bet is that we sign P.A Paranteau

I think we will resign guys like Macormick,Dzingle and Puemple to keep some depth on LW

 

[Benjamin]

I really can't imagine the Sens signing any UFA's beyond depth players on short contracts. Too many raises coming up and prospect being NHL ready. No room or longterm cash available. It'll just be regretful in 2-3 years. Pass on PAP, Eriksson, Hudler.

 

[topshelf15]

I really can't imagine the Sens signing any UFA's beyond depth players on short contracts. Too many raises coming up and prospect being NHL ready. No room or longterm cash available. It'll just be regretful in 2-3 years. Pass on PAP, Eriksson, Hudler.

Dale weiss baby

 

[trentmccleary]

I'm worried about MacArthur tbh.

My bet is that we sign P.A Paranteau

You don't replace an injury before you have it.

You go with MacArthur and if he can't go, you try to fill internally with kids. If that doesn't work and you have high expectations, you acquire somebody at the deadline.

Personally, I'm hoping that MacArthur rebuilds his value and is the most enticing Sen left unprotected in the expansion draft.

 

[Micklebot]

I'm worried about MacArthur tbh.

My bet is that we sign P.A Paranteau

MacArthur's health concerns me as well, but I wouldn't replace him until he's gone or it's apparent that his play has dropped off.

From a completely selfish perspective; it would be far more beneficial if we knew whether his concussion issues will force him into retirement prior to free agency, even if it is via permanent LTIR because we could use his salary (assuming it was insured) towards a good free agent.

The uncertainty means that we can't sign a replacement, and we don't know if we'll have a player or not, and if we do, whether he'll still provide value for his contract.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

PA Parenteau isn't a top 6 player anymore. He scored 20 goals last season, but someone had to score them on Toronto. It is telling that Colorado gave him away to get out of the second year of his deal to Montreal, he had to play for the ECHL Toronto Maple Leafs last season, and then there were no takers at the deadline.

If Mac can't play, the solution probably won't be to get a player like Parenteau. The team will either have to try and attract a true top 6 player in a trade or via free agency, or start the season with Smith as the 2LW and see who else internally that could play the left side like Puempel, Dzingel, or Paul steps up offensively while waiting to try and find a better player on the trade market if no one steps up.

 

[Othello*]

PA wasn't supposed to be a solution; just a cheap role player.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

I think the necessary strategy this offseason is one of risk mitigation and insulation. The first and most important objective is to make the requisite adjustments to ensure the highest probability of the Senators making and succeeding in the playoffs. Given the current structure of the roster the Senators lack elite top six talent, as a result unless they can acquire some elite talent via free agency or trade they will be required to have 4 strong lines that can all contribute in order to be a playoff team. Therefore the Senators would be able to increase their probability of success by having more established NHL players in the lineup and being able to spread out the production amongst them.

Secondly, one of the established players (MacArthur) has a high probability of being injured this season. Concussions increase the risk of subsequent concussions and given that this is a contact sport there is a very high risk that MacArthur becomes injured this season. There is also some probability that other players become injured this season. Given that the Senators must rely on depth to ensure regular season and playoff success they must initiate some mitigation strategies to insulate themselves in the event that MacArthur or any other prominent player becomes injured for any meaningful length of time.

At this time only Colin White, Nick Paul and Thomas Chabot are quality enough prospects to be able to contribute to the Senators on a regular basis. So while some prospects may be able to take a temporary role with the team it is a very high risk strategy to rely on their performances.

The first strategy would be to acquire some elite talent. This offsets the need for the Senators to rely on depth to succeed but it is also the most costly strategy and also the least likely to occur.

The 2nd strategy is to sign or trade for some versatile players that can be moved up and down the lineup. Examples of free agents include Milan Lucic, David Backes, Kyle Okoposo or Andrew Ladd. These are more established players which helps offset the risk if a prominent player becomes injured.

Finally a very cost effective strategy that offsets the risk but only in a minimal way is the camp invite or two-way contract route. There are a number of players who have had established NHL careers that may require this route in order to attain NHL opportunities this offseason. The players I have in mind are Mike Richards, Steve Ott, Tuomo Ruutu, Raffi Torres, Chris Stewart and Rene Bourque. Having any of those players as 13th/14th forwards or in the minors would at the very least allow the Senators to have some more veteran NHL players at their disposal if need be.

Whatever strategy that is employed, I personally feel that it is more strategic for the Senators to lean towards having more NHL players than they need rather than relying on prospect call ups and the health of the roster like they have in the past.

 

[salomonster]

Whatever strategy that is employed, I personally feel that it is more strategic for the Senators to lean towards having more NHL players than they need rather than relying on prospect call ups and the health of the roster like they have in the past.

Agreed on this.

Listening to Dorion on team 1200 this morning, he said they would be looking to experienced role players on July 1st.

We cannot rely of our prospects to take a step forward this year.

Having done that the last 2 years, once with success, last year a resounding not...

 

[keppel146]

Do the Sens want to trade Zibanajed? Or even interested?

 

[Super Cake]

Do the Sens want to trade Zibanajed? Or even interested?

Doubtful.

Dorion has already said that he doesn't expect to make any big trades this summer.

 

[YouGotAStuGoing]

Do the Sens want to trade Zibanajed? Or even interested?

Zib's still developing and he really ended the year on a high note. Also, he's made a commitment to improve his conditioning this year with the team's staff. Despite what some posters who are down on Zib might say, the odds are extremely slim we'd move him right now.

 

[keppel146]

Doubtful.

Dorion has already said that he doesn't expect to make any big trades this summer.

Zib's still developing and he really ended the year on a high note. Also, he's made a commitment to improve his conditioning this year with the team's staff. Despite what some posters who are down on Zib might say, the odds are extremely slim we'd move him right now.

Ok thanks. Just seeing if you needed a Wild defender not named Spurgeon or Suter.

 

[BondraTime]

Do the Sens want to trade Zibanajed? Or even interested?

If he was a piece for a legit 1st Center with term, sure.

Otherwise, not sure what we would trade our 20g-30a (hopefully 25g-35a) 23 year old center who is big and good defensively for.

 

[Ohhh Franco]

Steve Lloyd floated it out there today that if Dorion does want to significantly shake up the current roster, seems like ZBad would be a likely candidate. Lloyd and White talked about it for a bit, and you're not just dumping him and have to be getting something of substance back, and there is risk to it, but yeah, it's very possible. Especially when you consider that he's been reamed out by management a few times regarding his commitment to fitness and history of not being ready to rock come Game 1.

 

[trentmccleary]

I care primarily about the top-6, top-4 and #1 goalie. At the bottom of that list are usually the secondary wingers and #4 d-man. I typically don't mind when one of these spots are open or if they are filled precariously. In our situation, we have signed Ryan and MacArthur to long term, big money deals over our top line forwards and long term solution at #1 goalie. This makes me unhappy. So I personally wouldn't be throwing around more 5 x $5M + type deals at more secondary wingers like Ladd, Okposo, Lucic, etc to bung up our cap and block our prospects.

 

[BonkTastic]

Ok thanks. Just seeing if you needed a Wild defender not named Spurgeon or Suter.

There might have been room to negotiate before we made the Phaneuf trade.

As it stands now, we're super-confident in our top-4 at the moment, assuming Methot is healthy.

Methot-Karlsson
Phaneuf-Ceci


Lookin' good on the Sens blueline for the first time in a long time...

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

That, and the fact that Eriksson will be looking for a 5 year deal.

IMO i'd give it to him. Normally every great team eventually has a bit of an overpaid savvy veteran playing role player towards his latter contract and the best teams normally have the guys who at least have high IQ's so they can still be useful even in their last years.

Erik is BFFs with half the guys in the league. Dude loves everybody.

Hahaha, agreed but Eriksson moreso.

Y'all need to stop putting our best forward on the third line.

Not really our 3rd line. Like someone said, if we wanna win a cup as a budget-esque team, we're gonna need to do it with 4 great lines and 3 similar lines in terms of effectiveness.

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Dale weiss baby

Wouldn't mind this at all either. Weise is the perfect 3rd liner.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Adding Erickson without subtracting anybody means diminishing returns. The improvement we get is offset by no longer giving somebody, say MacArthur, ice time in offensive situations. Then we're wasting the money we're paying him by not using him properly, as we watch his meagre trade value erode instead of rebuilding it.

IMO we can't risk this. We took same approach with Wier/Cowen and look how that turned out.

We can't rely on a guy with injury history(in the above case it was inconsistency but nonetheless) to turn it around in a roster spot that is very important to our future success(1st or 2nd line LW).

Say for example MacArthur gets injured 20 games in next season and we don't have the personnel to fill that 2nd line LW spot with great production, then for the rest of the season we are either:

1) Trying to fill it in internally with revolving door
2) Trying to find the player via trade

And if we don't, we are another key injury away on offense from being on the outside looking in.... and that's another year effecting Karlsson's wasted prime.

Also, I think if we have Eriksson then it will divert attention away from MacArthur's need to be real effective and he could thrive more as the team plays better as a deeper unit.

I like the idea of Hudler too.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Until proven otherwise MacArthur is good to go.

You don't sign a free agent because you are worried about injuries.

 

[Sun God Nika]

With MacA being an unknown hopefully it gives Perron a shot at a game or two.

 

[trentmccleary]

I think the necessary strategy this offseason is one of risk mitigation and insulation. The first and most important objective is to make the requisite adjustments to ensure the highest probability of the Senators making and succeeding in the playoffs. Given the current structure of the roster the Senators lack elite top six talent, as a result unless they can acquire some elite talent via free agency or trade they will be required to have 4 strong lines that can all contribute in order to be a playoff team. Therefore the Senators would be able to increase their probability of success by having more established NHL players in the lineup and being able to spread out the production amongst them.

Secondly, one of the established players (MacArthur) has a high probability of being injured this season. Concussions increase the risk of subsequent concussions and given that this is a contact sport there is a very high risk that MacArthur becomes injured this season. There is also some probability that other players become injured this season. Given that the Senators must rely on depth to ensure regular season and playoff success they must initiate some mitigation strategies to insulate themselves in the event that MacArthur or any other prominent player becomes injured for any meaningful length of time.

At this time only Colin White, Nick Paul and Thomas Chabot are quality enough prospects to be able to contribute to the Senators on a regular basis. So while some prospects may be able to take a temporary role with the team it is a very high risk strategy to rely on their performances.

The first strategy would be to acquire some elite talent. This offsets the need for the Senators to rely on depth to succeed but it is also the most costly strategy and also the least likely to occur.

The 2nd strategy is to sign or trade for some versatile players that can be moved up and down the lineup. Examples of free agents include Milan Lucic, David Backes, Kyle Okoposo or Andrew Ladd. These are more established players which helps offset the risk if a prominent player becomes injured.

Finally a very cost effective strategy that offsets the risk but only in a minimal way is the camp invite or two-way contract route. There are a number of players who have had established NHL careers that may require this route in order to attain NHL opportunities this offseason. The players I have in mind are Mike Richards, Steve Ott, Tuomo Ruutu, Raffi Torres, Chris Stewart and Rene Bourque. Having any of those players as 13th/14th forwards or in the minors would at the very least allow the Senators to have some more veteran NHL players at their disposal if need be.

Whatever strategy that is employed, I personally feel that it is more strategic for the Senators to lean towards having more NHL players than they need rather than relying on prospect call ups and the health of the roster like they have in the past.

I appreciate the work and thought process that went into this.

I nevertheless, disagree.

1) The Sens do not lack elite top-6 talent; they ooze top-6 talent. They may lack 1 focal player, but have the forwards to finish 30th, 31st , 50th, 51st and 80th in scoring. That's way above average... and scoring was not the problem this season despite key injuries to MacArthur and Turris up front.

2) MacArthur is barely a prominent player on this team and they could live without him. We already 5 better top-6 forwards than him. A smarter strategy is not to replace a healthy MacArthur with a better and more expensive winger. It's to play MacArthur in the role he was signed for and hope that he has a healthy & productive enough season to be selected in the expansion draft so that we can get that contract off of our books.

3) All of this is about forwards, why? We might walk away from Wiercioch, our bottom pairing could use work and we'll eventually need a long term solution in goal. D & G are more important areas for this team to address in the next 14 months than scoring winger.

IMO we can't risk this. We took same approach with Wier/Cowen and look how that turned out.

We can't rely on a guy with injury history(in the above case it was inconsistency but nonetheless) to turn it around in a roster spot that is very important to our future success(1st or 2nd line LW).

Say for example MacArthur gets injured 20 games in next season and we don't have the personnel to fill that 2nd line LW spot with great production, then for the rest of the season we are either:

1) Trying to fill it in internally with revolving door
2) Trying to find the player via trade

And if we don't, we are another key injury away on offense from being on the outside looking in.... and that's another year effecting Karlsson's wasted prime.

Also, I think if we have Eriksson then it will divert attention away from MacArthur's need to be real effective and he could thrive more as the team plays better as a deeper unit.

I like the idea of Hudler too.

Wiercioch and Cowen were trying to be top-4 d-men on a team that was missing a #2. They were also trying to refine their games with another young kid who was trying to get his game together.

The position is not very important to our success anymore because we have 5 better offensive forwards ahead of him. He is our 10th-12th best player.

Top-6 / Top-4 / #1
Best forward, best D-man, #1 goalie... great places to use cap space.
#2-4 forwards & #2-3 D-men... good places to use cap space.
#5-6 forwards & #4 d-men... not so good places to spend cap space.

2nd line LW is literally the least important of all of those 11 positions (I pick on LW because it is typically barren of talent). Next most useless is 2nd line RW, because defensemen and centers usually have more impact.

These are our top-11 players at those key positions. These are the players who help us win. The only deals longer than 3 more years are highlighted:

23 Stone 75-23-38-61 (2 x $3.5)
26 Turris 57-13-17-30 (2 x $3.5)
26 Hoffman 78-29-30-59 (RFA)
29 B. Ryan 81-22-34-56 (6 x $7.25)
31 MacArthur 4-0-0-0 (4 x $4.65)
23 Zibanejad 81-21-30-51 (1 x $2.63)

25 Karlsson 82-16-66-82 (3 x $6.5)
31 Phaneuf 71-4-28-32 (5 x $7.0)
22 Ceci 75-10-16-26 (RFA)
30 Methot 69-5-7-12 (3 x $4.9)

34 Anderson 60 (31-23-5) 2.78, 0.916 (2 x $4.2)

Now start thinking about importance to winning. Are Ryan and MacArthur closer to the top or the bottom of your list? ... because two 2nd line wingers are almost always going to be closer to the bottom of my list. 2nd line wing is where I fill out my roster, not where I sign people to silly long term contracts. It's where I save money to spend on more important positions. It's where I give talented rookies a chance to compete for an offensive role. Having one of these contracts isn't that big a deal, but having two sucks. Signed a 3rd big money player to a long term deal in such an important position and you're looking at crunch down the line that costs you a Stone, Karlsson, Hoffman, Zibanejad or a #1 goalie.

 

[Hutz]

Yeah id do White plus 12th in a second. I honestly think the sens would probably have to take back Clarkson to get this done. Worried about White going UFA too be honest.

I appreciate the work and thought process that went into this.

I nevertheless, disagree.

1) The Sens do not lack elite top-6 talent; they ooze top-6 talent. They may lack 1 focal player, but have the forwards to finish 30th, 31st , 50th, 51st and 80th in scoring. That's way above average... and scoring was not the problem this season despite key injuries to MacArthur and Turris up front.

I'm curious where those numbers are from. Maybe I'm missing something, but the numbers I have from the NHL stats page are 36, 42, 55, 77, 116. Respectable, to be sure, but not quite as high.

 

[trentmccleary]

I'm curious where those numbers are from. Maybe I'm missing something, but the numbers I have from the NHL stats page are 36, 42, 55, 77, 116. Respectable, to be sure, but not quite as high.

They're easy to remember guesstimates based on:
30-ish
Stone's past two seasons
Turris last season

50-ish
Hoffman this season
Ryan every season

80-ish
Zibanejad this season, well last season too.