2015-2016 Roster Talk: East Coast Thinks We Suck Edition(MOD WARNING) post# 107

[KINGS17]

Kings get also extra 1,5M in cap space from Richards(from 3,1M to 1,5M).

Lucic 7,0 - Kopitar 10,0 - Toffoli 3,4
Pearson 1,4 - Carter 5,3 - Gaborik 4,8
King 1,9 - Shore 0,6 - Brown 5,8
Clifford 1,6 - Andy 0,6 - Lewis 2,5
Mersch 0,9 - Nolan 1,1

McNabb 1,5 - Doughty 7,0
Muzzin 4,0 - Schenn 2,75
Martinez 4,0 - McBain 1,1
Forbort 0,8

Quick 5,8
*backup* 1,0

Richards 1,6

TOTAL=76,45M

That would be at least 3M too much (assuming cap goes up some 3%).

You could possibly save maybe 0,5-0,75 on Lucic and Schenn, 0,4 on backup goalie and 2,0 if you trade Clifford and Nolan(playing Mersch in Clifford's place and bringing Dowd or somebody else on minimum contract).
In total that creates additional 2,9-3,1M of cap space, just enough for 22 man roster.

So in theory it's possible to squeeze almost entire roster for next year with modest cap raise.

On the other hand that creates even bigger problem summer after when Toffoli is due for his contract extension.

This is the big issue, and I am sure Dean will go about his business with this in mind. It's the cap in 2017-18 that he has to fit everyone under.

 

[Johnny Utah]

Nolan makes only 950k not 1.1 and I don't think McBain goes from almost league minimum of 600k to 1.1?

I agree also, one of Nolan or Clifford goes. Andreoff is half the cost.

Every time I look at the numbers the two contracts that stick out are Brown and Gaborik.

 

[guderian]

Nolan makes only 950k not 1.1 and I don't think McBain goes from almost league minimum of 600k to 1.1?

I agree also, one of Nolan or Clifford goes. Andreoff is half the cost.

Every time I look at the numbers the two contracts that stick out are Brown and Gaborik.

Yeah, I messed up with Nolan but it doesn't change overall picture significantly.I also messed up with Mersch's cap hit. He has 0,925M cap hit for next year, but 0,133M are bonuses, so for every practical purpose his cap hit is actually 0,793M.
That makes total 76,2M(instead 76,45M), a bit less, but still some 3M too much.

McBain&McNabb could go for less, for sure, I just used 1,1&1,5M as sort of ceiling, worst case scenario, leaving some wiggle room. If Dean can sign both of them for combined cap hit of 2,5M or less that would be great.

This is the big issue, and I am sure Dean will go about his business with this in mind. It's the cap in 2017-18 that he has to fit everyone under.

Absolutely, biggest problem with signing Lucic would be 2017/2018 season and onwards.
It still doesn't mean Kings can't sign Lucic, but either Brown or Gaborik should be gone by that point(summer '17) to fit everybody under the cap(and by gone I mean completely gone, without any retention).

 

[Ron*]

Yeah, I messed up with Nolan but it doesn't change overall picture significantly.I also missed a bit with Mersch's cap hit. He has 0,925M cap hit for next year, but 0,133M are bonuses, so for every practical purpose his cap hit is actually 0,793M.
That makes total 76,2M(instead 76,45M), a bit less, but still some 3M too much.

McBain&McNabb could go for less, for sure, I just used 1,1&1,5M as sort of ceiling, worst case scenario, leaving some wiggle room. If Dean can sign both of them for combined cap hit of 2,5M or less that would be great.




Absolutely, biggest problem with signing Lucic would be 2017/2018 season and onwards.
It still doesn't mean Kings can't sign Lucic, but either Brown or Gaborik should be gone by that point to fit everybody under the cap(and by gone I mean completely gone, without any retention).

I thought you already understood that no one, I mean absolutely no one, is going to take on Brown's contract without some retention, and likely the maximum of 50%. I can't take these posts seriously if you aren't going to have some basis in reality.

 

[TradeMadeMeSignUp]

No matter how this season ends up, even if it's with Dustin Brown lifting the cup and handing it off to Ehrhoff, this off-season will probably bring a lot more change than we're all used to as Kings fans lately.

1. Dustin Brown and Gaborik will both probably be attempted to be moved, Gaborik probably has more value at this moment. We might just be stuck with Brown until the expansion draft in 2017.

2. Lucic/Trevor Lewis. I'm pretty sure they let Trevor Lewis walk if they can sign Lucic to a contract extension. I don't think they even make an attempt to bring Lewis back if that happens and if they can't get Lucic signed, Lewis probably still tests the market since it took so long to talk contract with him which means somebody pays him more than DL wants to pay him, basically I think this is Lewis' last year with the Kings. Lucic contract extension, if it happens, I'm starting to think happens around the same time Gaborik's did.

3. Clifford/Nolan, one of these two has to go but the question is when? Now Mersch is an option but even if he's "not ready" (seemed ready to me?) you still have Andreoff and when Clifford comes back, what are you going to do? I could see sending Nick Shore down to Ontario as a temporary move which might not be so bad since IMO, lately he hasn't been anything but healthy scratch worthy. Clifford has more value, makes more money, Nolan is the one more likely to take that idiotic penalty in the offensive zone and just doesn't really bring much. I hope Nolan is the one to go here.

4. So the off-season will come and Ehrhoff will walk and McBain will once again be a UFA leaving the Kings 1 D short. Does Matt Greene retire? If Greene doesn't retire he becomes your 6th, I'd hope Gaborik or Brown are gone and they'll have cap space for a 7th. Of course the best case scenario would be Forbort stepping up and becoming reliable enough to be that guy.

Most of this is just obvious stuff, I guess real question is if DL makes another move before the trading deadline. I think the Kings are done adding roster players, I don't see them losing anymore assets or giving up anymore picks. Nolan/Clifford is the only move I can see happening this season unless someone actually wants to take Dustin Brown off of the King's hands, one can dream.

 

[KINGS17]

It still doesn't mean Kings can't sign Lucic, but either Brown or Gaborik should be gone by that point(summer '17) to fit everybody under the cap(and by gone I mean completely gone, without any retention).

Yes, this is a difficult task for Dean, and why I think it has to be done before Lucic is re-signed. I think Dean will have to include a good young NHL roster player to make taking on Brown's contract palatable for a team that is building toward success in the future.

Even then it's a tall order, as I don't think Brown's contract expires until the 2021-22 season. I don't think an NHL GM is going to take that contract even if Pearson or McNabb are included in the deal.

If the cap doesn't increase dramatically, and it won't, and if Dean can't move Brown, there is no Lucic next season. Dean has run out of road with these long term deals and excessive cap hits.

Regarding the expansion draft, as it seems to come up from time to time as the Dustin Brown silver bullet: expansion is not a sure thing. Bettman seems to be backing away from the idea in recent interviews. Also, if you are the GM of an expansion team, why are you using a pick on Dustin Brown? No, you are going to use your pick on a relatively inexpensive young player from the Kings. Then if you still feel like having Brown on your team, you are going to go to Dean and offer to take Brown in a trade as long as Dean includes a 2nd round pick and a good prospect. Something along those lines.

No expansion GM is going to start their team by taking on the established teams garbage contracts in the expansion draft.

 

[TradeMadeMeSignUp]

I thought you already understood that no one, I mean absolutely no one, is going to take on Brown's contract without some retention, and likely the maximum of 50%. I can't take these posts seriously if you aren't going to have some basis in reality.

Yup. Only way they ditch him completely is if they keep him until the expansion draft and keep him unprotected. Maybe Las Vegas takes him with that C experience.

 

[guderian]

I thought you already understood that no one, I mean absolutely no one, is going to take on Brown's contract without some retention, and likely the maximum of 50%. I can't take these posts seriously if you aren't going to have some basis in reality.

Oh, I didn't want to imply anybody is taking Brown without retention, was just trying to put some numbers together to see what kind of picture lies ahead.


In reality nobody knows is Brown movable and for what price, we can speculate and use our common sense, but nothing is set in stone( e.g.There is always hope that expansion draft takes away this problem )

I firmly believe Dean has better sense of situation overall, and if he sees same numbers and draws similar conclusions (that Brown needs to go but is hardly worth moving because high price) then i don't expect him to seriously go after Lucic.

 

[Fat Elvis]

I think Gaborik will start putting up numbers this second half of the season. I wouldn't write him off just yet, he's close. I'm less confident Brown is anything more than a 5.8 pker. It's been seasons since he last drove to the net with authority. He should take a page from Looch's book or even Mersch.

 

[YP44]

I think Gaborik will start putting up numbers this second half of the season. I wouldn't write him off just yet, he's close. I'm less confident Brown is anything more than a 5.8 pker. It's been seasons since he last drove to the net with authority. He should take a page from Looch's book or even Mersch.

This is why if there is any sliver of hope to move either of them it will be gaborik. Need him to have a great playoffs and second half of the year, and then maybe just maybe a GM will be dumb enough to take him off our hand

 

[TradeMadeMeSignUp]

I think Gaborik will start putting up numbers this second half of the season. I wouldn't write him off just yet, he's close. I'm less confident Brown is anything more than a 5.8 pker. It's been seasons since he last drove to the net with authority. He should take a page from Looch's book or even Mersch.

Yup, this seems likely.

@Kings17 , yeah, you're right. Dumping Brown without sending actual assets with him or retainment is probably just a pipe dream.

 

[Fishhead]

The best chance with Brown is in Buffalo. He's from the area, that team needs guidance for it's younger players, etc. Having Brown for a few years while their core matures would be an asset for them. He was a major part of a successful build from nothing to cup winner, and completely understands the process.

The Kings would still have to add, but I think a prospect would be sent to reduce retention. They are probably our best bet.

 

[Ollie Weeks]

i was curious how the arrival of luke & vincent affected lak's special teams and the redistribution of individual tois for pp & pk. played with numbers a bit and this came out.

source for raw data: nhl. % of teams roughly checked via puckalytics, some small deviations in comparison, not really sure why, but it shouldn't matter. the data is adjusted for number of games played, but not for other stuff (for example time spent in the penalty box)

the sample for "after their arrival" is obviously too small for such analysis, as too many other factors can affect the variance in individual tois. still, some "winners and losers" could stay relatively constant over time. i hope that the variables are self-evident, and i'll leave the interpretation to you.

the first table is for pp:

the second table is for sh:

Nice find. Looks like Vinny replaces King and Brown on the PP, and Shore on the PK. And Schenn replaces McNabb on the PK. Doughty's PK time stays the same.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Lucic really wants to stay with the Kings. Make it happen Deano!

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14619198/nhl-kings-milan-lucic-loving-life-los-angeles

 

[Johnny Utah]

Wow that's great to hear.

Lombardi knows after the MR contract mess and termination now what has to be done with future players. He won't make that mistake again.

Someone big is gone this summer and it won't be Kopitar, Carter, Muzzin, Quick, Toffoli, or Doughty.

 

[YP44]

Lucic really wants to stay with the Kings. Make it happen Deano!

http://espn.go.com/nhl/story/_/id/14619198/nhl-kings-milan-lucic-loving-life-los-angeles

even he said though that if he is prepared to test free agency. So it's nice of him to say he wants to stay here but what is that truly worth?

 

[mrkolice]

mhm, pearson?

 

[YP44]

Wow that's great to hear.

Lombardi knows after the MR contract mess and termination now what has to be done with future players. He won't make that mistake again.

Someone big is gone this summer and it won't be Kopitar, Carter, Muzzin, Quick, Toffoli, or Doughty.

I think everyone owuld love it if Brown or Gaborik are moved out, but it is highly unlikely.
Does that mean I guy like Martinez is moved to fit in Lucic? Whenever i post Martinez trades it is do to the fact he is not the core you mentioned but right below. He would have tons of value on the market and would help LA retain Lucic. That said it would create a huge whole on the backend. Need some prospects to step up.

 

[YP44]

mhm, pearson?

would hate moving him or martinez but I imagine they have the most value to other clubs. I do not think Pearson would clear enough cap space.

 

[KINGS17]

I think everyone owuld love it if Brown or Gaborik are moved out, but it is highly unlikely.
Does that mean I guy like Martinez is moved to fit in Lucic? Whenever i post Martinez trades it is do to the fact he is not the core you mentioned but right below. He would have tons of value on the market and would help LA retain Lucic. That said it would create a huge whole on the backend. Need some prospects to step up.

Does Dean do this to sign Lucic to yet another ridiculous long term contract though?

I would advise against it, but you're right most people don't understand that you will have to give (Martinez) to get (keep Lucic and rid the team of Brown's contract).

I read the article by Lebrun, sounds like he wants to stay, but sounds like he wants to get paid as well.

 

[YP44]

Does Dean do this to sign Lucic to yet another ridiculous long term contract though?

I would advise against it, but you're right most people don't understand that you will have to give (Martinez) to get (keep Lucic and rid the team of Brown's contract).

Lucic is only 27..i would be ok giving him long term. really do not know on cap hit though if he wants 8 year.
Right now I am just going to enjoy him and this team while we got him

 

[KINGS17]

Lucic is only 27..i would be ok giving him long term. really do not know on cap hit though if he wants 8 year.
Right now I am just going to enjoy him and this team while we got him

Rumors last season coming out of Boston was that Lucic wants 7 years and close to $50M. Lucic is only 27, it will be a bad deal in about 3-4 years. Guys that play his style don't last much beyond 30 years of age. He basically wants a retirement deal. How many guys is Dean going to give this type of deal?

The Kings already have Quick, Brown, Kopitar, and Gaborik on contracts like that when we should and will need Toffoli on a deal like that year after next.

 

[Trolfoli]

Does Dean do this to sign Lucic to yet another ridiculous long term contract though?

I would advise against it, but you're right most people don't understand that you will have to give (Martinez) to get (keep Lucic and rid the team of Brown's contract).

I read the article by Lebrun, sounds like he wants to stay, but sounds like he wants to get paid as well.

GO BIG OR GO HOME!!!! 8 years of LLLLUUUUUCCCCC!!!

 

[mrkolice]

Nice find. Looks like Vinny replaces King and Brown on the PP, and Shore on the PK. And Schenn replaces McNabb on the PK. Doughty's PK time stays the same.

roughly yes. but also pearson lost a lot of toi in all departments. maybe that's the biggest question now, compared with lucic or no lucic dilemma, and maybe we're witnessing the death of the 70's line. but keep in mind that the sample is too small for any relevant conclusions. plus dwight played only 10 games this season. plus jeff is probably injured. plus recent tyler's promotion in the 1st line and gabby's degradation in the 4the line (!) are deformating the data somehow. and so on, many factors are relevant.

to finish what i've started before, here are total tois for all players, all situations. same caution as i've mentioned before, but the data here is a little more robust, with 365 minutes played since luke and vincent arrived.

before = before 2016-01-06 (without luke and vincent, with weal)
after = after 2016-01-07 (with luke and vincent, without weal)

 

[Ron*]

Rumors last season coming out of Boston was that Lucic wants 7 years and close to $50M. Lucic is only 27, it will be a bad deal in about 3-4 years. Guys that play his style don't last much beyond 30 years of age. He basically wants a retirement deal. How many guys is Dean going to give this type of deal?

The Kings already have Quick, Brown, Kopitar, and Gaborik on contracts like that when we should and will need Toffoli on a deal like that year after next.

Pay the man his money.