2015-2016 Roster Talk: East Coast Thinks We Suck Edition(MOD WARNING) post# 107

[tsanuri]

I don't know. I look at that team and I don't think they are quite there yet. Yzerman may feel the same way and feel like he is better off re-scheduling his window to a later date.

The problem for TB may be that there is a young team in Miami that seems to have their core pieces of the puzzle, and they are very young and talented.

Everything that has happened with Drouin can't help with him figuring his timeline. But consider he has so many of his bigger RFA's coming up this year. That is putting the squeeze on him. And you know he fears offer sheets if he gets too much tied up.

 

[Reclamation Project]

A lot of people think an AHL stint would do wonders for Drouin. I don't see that happening though.

 

[KINGS17]

Everything that has happened with Drouin can't help with him figuring his timeline. But consider he has so many of his bigger RFA's coming up this year. That is putting the squeeze on him. And you know he fears offer sheets if he gets too much tied up.

Yeah, I think Yzerman is wise to consider this. He may be better off spending cap space on buying some of the UFA years of his best young upcoming RFAs.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

For the immediate future, it's not as bad as what the Ducks are going to roll with, but I wouldn't let that be the standard to go by in evaluating our cap situation.

You may be right, but let's take a look around the league at those slots, 1C, 2C, 1D, 2D, Goalie,

Los Angeles
Kopitar--10
Carter--5.27
Doughty--7
Muzzin--4
Quick--5.8
Total: 32.07
----------------
Chicago
Toews--10.5
Anisimov--4.5 (starting next year)
Keith-- 5.8
Seabrook-- 5.5
Crawford-- 6
Total-- 32.3 (don't forget Kane!)
---------------
Tampa Bay
Stamkos--7.5 (UFA)
T Johnson--3.3 (RFA in two years, also have Fippula at 5)
Hedman--4
Stralman--4.5
Bishop--5.9
Total--25.2. Looks great eh? Well, until you realize they have 6 key RFAs at forward, including Kucherov and Namestnikov, are overpaying a few d-men like Carle, and have their 'franchise player' (I disagree with it but eh) as a UFA. Not to mention TJ will be an RFA in another year and Hedman will be UFA at 26.
-------------

Not sure who else we could look at but the point is that Carter's and Muzzin's contracts help check Kopitar's and Doughty's current and eventual contract, while Quick's is also lower than MANY other starters (LOL HANK AT 8 FOR INFINITY). Most other teams are either in our boat with guys like Keith on legacy contracts helping to tame some of the insanity, or they will be getting screwed SOON as they don't have those legacy contracts to dim the blow of ridiculous contracts (i.e. poor Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Calgary, et. al.).

I'm in the minority thinking this but I think from a strictly cap perspective, despite being a veteran team, it's being handled VERY well considering.

Who do you consider as a good 'model?'

 

[tsanuri]

A lot of people think an AHL stint would do wonders for Drouin. I don't see that happening though.

He's already there.

 

[Johnny Utah]

DL has to do something to get out of Gaborik and Brown's contracts.

 

[Reclamation Project]

I meant on the team that acquires him.

 

[tsanuri]

You may be right, but let's take a look around the league at those slots, 1C, 2C, 1D, 2D, Goalie,

Los Angeles
Kopitar--10
Carter--5.27
Doughty--7
Muzzin--4
Quick--5.8
Total: 32.07
----------------
Chicago
Toews--10.5
Anisimov--4.5 (starting next year)
Keith-- 5.8
Seabrook-- 5.5
Crawford-- 6
Total-- 32.3 (don't forget Kane!)
---------------
Tampa Bay
Stamkos--7.5 (UFA)
T Johnson--3.3 (RFA in two years, also have Fippula at 5)
Hedman--4
Stralman--4.5
Bishop--5.9
Total--25.2. Looks great eh? Well, until you realize they have 6 key RFAs at forward, including Kucherov and Namestnikov, are overpaying a few d-men like Carle, and have their 'franchise player' (I disagree with it but eh) as a UFA. Not to mention TJ will be an RFA in another year and Hedman will be UFA at 26.
-------------

Not sure who else we could look at but the point is that Carter's and Muzzin's contracts help check Kopitar's and Doughty's current and eventual contract, while Quick's is also lower than MANY other starters (LOL HANK AT 8 FOR INFINITY). Most other teams are either in our boat with guys like Keith on legacy contracts helping to tame some of the insanity, or they will be getting screwed SOON as they don't have those legacy contracts to dim the blow of ridiculous contracts (i.e. poor Edmonton, Tampa Bay, Calgary, et. al.).

I'm in the minority thinking this but I think from a strictly cap perspective, despite being a veteran team, it's being handled VERY well considering.

Who do you consider as a good 'model?'

It's not the main contracts that hurt us. Most of those are quite good really. It's Brown, Gaborik, and then there is the not buying out Richards which is 3.1M this year and rumored to be 1.5M next.
And to some extent Martinez as a 3rd D at 4M. But not sure we could get anyone like him for much if any less.

 

[Reclamation Project]

I completely forgot about Richards big hit this year.

 

[YP44]

Down the middle, I don't TB being a team to beat. At least not like Florida could be in the near future.

namistikov, Johnson, Kilorn all play centre do they not? has it not been reported that Tampa wants Stamkos to play wing. They must have some good depth to do that.

 

[YP44]

It's not the main contracts that hurt us. Most of those are quite good really. It's Brown, Gaborik, and then there is the not buying out Richards which is 3.1M this year and rumored to be 1.5M next.
And to some extent Martinez as a 3rd D at 4M. But not sure we could get anyone like him for much if any less.

all this is true

 

[Johnny Utah]

Lewis - 1.525 million
Ehrhoff - 1.5 million
McBain - 600k
Enroth - 1.25 million
Schultz - 850K

Add all that up and it's almost 6 million.

Somehow the Kings need to parlay some of that money for Kopitar's contract and Lucic.

I get the feeling from listening to Mayor's latest podcast/interview that Greene might retire? First time I've heard that. That would give the Kings another 2.5 million.

So essentially, the Kings could have 8.25 million for Kopitar's new deal, Lucic and Schenn. Hopefully, the Cap goes up a bit and currently Lucic is eating 3 million.

Kopitar went from 7 to 10 million, so there is 3 out of that 8 = 5...then take another 3 for Lucic and you are down to 2 million...just not enough, even if that Cap goes up a few million to sign a back up goalie and a D man.

Brown is a goner.

 

[kingsfan28]

Lewis - 1.525 million
Ehrhoff - 1.5 million
McBain - 600k
Enroth - 1.25 million
Schultz - 850K

Add all that up and it's almost 6 million.

Somehow the Kings need to parlay some of that money for Kopitar's contract and Lucic.

I get the feeling from listening to Mayor's latest podcast/interview that Greene might retire? First time I've heard that. That would give the Kings another 2.5 million.

So essentially, the Kings could have 8.25 million for Kopitar's new deal, Lucic and Schenn. Hopefully, the Cap goes up a bit and currently Lucic is eating 3 million.

Kopitar went from 7 to 10 million, so there is 3 out of that 8 = 5...then take another 3 for Lucic and you are down to 2 million...just not enough, even if that Cap goes up a few million to sign a back up goalie and a D man.

Brown is a goner.

I take everything the Mayor says with a large grain of salt. All he's doing is projecting, just like the Williams trade. I'd say it will be Gaborik. If you have to choose between those two, you keep the captain, the guy who has been here since day one, played through the dark days and lead you to your first cup.

 

[Reclamation Project]

I take everything the Mayor says with a large grain of salt. All he's doing is projecting, just like the Williams trade. I'd say it will be Gaborik. If you have to choose between those two, you keep the captain, the guy who has been here since day one, played through the dark days and lead you to your first cup.

If I had a dollar for every time he peddled that...

 

[Omni Owl]

namistikov, Johnson, Kilorn all play centre do they not? has it not been reported that Tampa wants Stamkos to play wing. They must have some good depth to do that.

Stamkos, Johnson, Filppula, Boyle, Paquette, Killorn, and Namestnikov can all play center. I don't understand why they would have Stamkos on the wings but I guess its similar to why we have Carter playing wing right now (though I still think Carter is nursing an injury).

Lightning have pretty good center depth, but I still think the Stars potentially have the best group.

 

[kingsfan28]

If I had a dollar for every time he peddled that...

No kidding.He and Bernstein really were pushing for that trade to happen, and when it didn't happen they were both disappointed .

 

[KingsFan7824]

Stamkos, Johnson, Filppula, Boyle, Paquette, Killorn, and Namestnikov can all play center. I don't understand why they would have Stamkos on the wings but I guess its similar to why we have Carter playing wing right now (though I still think Carter is nursing an injury).

Lightning have pretty good center depth, but I still think the Stars potentially have the best group.

Statistically, Stamkos is a goal scoring winger playing center. He's more of an Ovechkin, or a Hull, than Crosby, or whatever playmaking center. Which might be one reason they drafted Drouin, who seems like more of a playmaker playing on the wing.

 

[Ron*]

If I had a dollar for every time he peddled that...

You could buy this site.

 

[Reclamation Project]

I'd spend it elsewhere.

 

[Martyros]

I'd spend it elsewhere.

maybe a special jackhammer for Lewis' hands?

 

[guderian]

Lewis - 1.525 million
Ehrhoff - 1.5 million
McBain - 600k
Enroth - 1.25 million
Schultz - 850K

Add all that up and it's almost 6 million.

Somehow the Kings need to parlay some of that money for Kopitar's contract and Lucic.

I get the feeling from listening to Mayor's latest podcast/interview that Greene might retire? First time I've heard that. That would give the Kings another 2.5 million.

So essentially, the Kings could have 8.25 million for Kopitar's new deal, Lucic and Schenn. Hopefully, the Cap goes up a bit and currently Lucic is eating 3 million.

Kopitar went from 7 to 10 million, so there is 3 out of that 8 = 5...then take another 3 for Lucic and you are down to 2 million...just not enough, even if that Cap goes up a few million to sign a back up goalie and a D man.

Brown is a goner.

Kings get also extra 1,5M in cap space from Richards(from 3,1M to 1,5M).

Lucic 7,0 - Kopitar 10,0 - Toffoli 3,4
Pearson 1,4 - Carter 5,3 - Gaborik 4,8
King 1,9 - Shore 0,6 - Brown 5,8
Clifford 1,6 - Andy 0,6 - Lewis 2,5
Mersch 0,9 - Nolan 1,1

McNabb 1,5 - Doughty 7,0
Muzzin 4,0 - Schenn 2,75
Martinez 4,0 - McBain 1,1
Forbort 0,8

Quick 5,8
*backup* 1,0

Richards 1,6

TOTAL=76,45M

That would be at least 3M too much (assuming cap goes up some 3%).

You could possibly save maybe 0,5-0,75 on Lucic and Schenn, 0,4 on backup goalie and 2,0 if you trade Clifford and Nolan(playing Mersch in Clifford's place and bringing Dowd or somebody else on minimum contract).
In total that creates additional 2,9-3,1M of cap space, just enough for 22 man roster.

So in theory it's possible to squeeze almost entire roster for next year with modest cap raise.

On the other hand that creates even bigger problem summer after when Toffoli is due for his contract extension.

 

[Mike Carr]

Kings get also extra 1,5M in cap space from Richards(from 3,1M to 1,5M).

Lucic 7,0 - Kopitar 10,0 - Toffoli 3,4
Pearson 1,4 - Carter 5,3 - Gaborik 4,8
King 1,9 - Shore 0,6 - Brown 5,8
Clifford 1,6 - Andy 0,6 - Lewis 2,5
Mersch 0,9 - Nolan 1,1

McNabb 1,5 - Doughty 7,0
Muzzin 4,0 - Schenn 2,75
Martinez 4,0 - McBain 1,1
Forbort 0,8

Quick 5,8
*backup* 1,0

Richards 1,6

TOTAL=76,45M

That would be at least 3M too much (assuming cap goes up some 3%).

You could possibly save maybe 0,5-0,75 on Lucic and Schenn, 0,4 on backup goalie and 2,0 if you trade Clifford and Nolan(playing Mersch in Clifford's place and bringing Dowd or somebody else on minimum contract).
In total that creates additional 2,9-3,1M of cap space, just enough for 22 man roster.

So in theory it's possible to squeeze almost entire roster for next year with modest cap raise.

On the other hand that creates even bigger problem summer after when Toffoli is due for his contract extension.

7m is too much for Looch - hopefully he takes Carter/Brown kind of money.
** you let Mcbain take the same pay or walk - saves .5 (AHL player for 600k if required)
*** Lewis 1.5-1.9 or he has to go also - saves another .6-1m on above workings
**** I would trade Clifford - 1.6m is too much - we can save 1m there

still we have to hope Greene retires or can be traded
I don't think 1.5 would be enough for McNabb

 

[Mike Carr]

Lucic 5.8m Kopitar 10m Toffoli 3.4
Pearson 1.4m Carter 5.3 Gaborik 4.8
King 1.9 Shore 0.6 Lewis 1.5
Merch 0.6 Andreoff 0.6 Nolan 0.9

Doughty 7m Muzzin 4m Martinez 4m Schenn 2.5m Mcbain 0.7 Forbert 0.8

quick 5.8 backup 0.6
Richards 1.5m

that is 69.1M (20 Signed)
so add some depth form AHL to fill out the squad - 3 or 4 at 0.6-0.8 (Gravel, Loverde, Dowd etc)

so DL could just about do this - means we have to trade/retire/waive Greene and Clifford
I wouldn't want to lose McNabb but don't have him included - no idea what kind of pay would be expected

 

[guderian]

There is just no way Lucic takes anything under 6,5M.

Lewis is not going to take pay cut, that's not happening.

If Greene doesn't retire he takes Schenn's spot. Schenn and Greene are interchangeable, only one should make roster next year.

With things shaping lately Clifford looks like odd man, just too much $$, Mersch is cheaper option without drop in quality.

 

[mrkolice]

i was curious how the arrival of luke & vincent affected lak's special teams and the redistribution of individual tois for pp & pk. played with numbers a bit and this came out.

source for raw data: nhl. % of teams roughly checked via puckalytics, some small deviations in comparison, not really sure why, but it shouldn't matter. the data is adjusted for number of games played, but not for other stuff (for example time spent in the penalty box)

the sample for "after their arrival" is obviously too small for such analysis, as too many other factors can affect the variance in individual tois. still, some "winners and losers" could stay relatively constant over time. i hope that the variables are self-evident, and i'll leave the interpretation to you.

the first table is for pp:

the second table is for sh: