Prospect Info: 2015-16 Colorado Avalanche Prospects Thread II (QMJHL, NCAA and Europe)

[Foppa2118]

I don't think 2014 draft will be a particularly great year for NHLers across the board, but this season and next will be interesting to watch for the prospects drafted later and outside the 1st. A lot of them will be taking their next step into the pro's and could have strong showings. This is when you start to see some of the unhyped guys come out of the woodwork.

A big problem with the Avs 2014 draft was they had a later pick in the first to begin at #23 with and no 2nd round pick because they sent it to Calgary for Berra. Which to me goes down as a much worse deal than Stuarts because Berra at the time was totally unnecessary. That meant they had to hit on their late 1st, or the next chance they got at finding quality in the draft was gonna be at #84.

They did ok with #84 taking Wood, but he was still behind lots of other young D men on the Avs, and Bleackley hadn't establised himself yet, and both eventually ended up being included in a trade. Something that by itself didn't hurt the pipleline a great deal for the Avs, but it did compound how bad the 2014 draft looked by itself for them.

It essentially meant they had five rolls of the dice on picks in the 4th round and later, to make something of the 2014 draft. At #93 (Magyar), #114 (Pepin) #144 (Lindholm) #174 (Pajpach) and #204 (Nantel).

If you look at it that way, it isn't necessarily a great result, but so far Lindholm in the 5th and Nantel in the 7th look like they have at least a shot at being serviceable NHLers in some capacity. Maybe Pajpach becomes something, who the hell knows with goalies. I'm not holding my breath too much on Magyar and Pepin though.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Funny thing is if they still had Bleackley and Wood they'd still be some of our better prospects.

 

[Foppa2118]

Funny thing is if they still had Bleackley and Wood they'd still be some of our better prospects.

I think they'd still be middle of the pack.

Forwards

Rantanen
2016 1st
Compher
Bleackley/Greer/Beaudin (too early to tell)

Defense

Zadorov
Bigras
Meloche
Wood/Mironov/Geertsen/Butcher (too early to tell)

 

[tigervixxxen]

That's still "better" considering at least 3 of the guys you listed won't be prospects next year.

 

[henchman21]

Funny thing is if they still had Bleackley and Wood they'd still be some of our better prospects.

IMO both would be in the top 10, but be on the lower end of that last. If you consider Zadorov a prospect still... I'd at least put Zadorov, Bigras, Meloche, Compher, Greer, and Rantanen ahead of them. Beaudin could be argued, and if Picks is still considered a prospect, him as well. Now many of those players won't be in the AHL next season, so Bleacks and Wood would have been two of the top prospects in San Antonio.

That's still "better" considering at least 3 of the guys you listed won't be prospects next year.

It is better, but they would get moved down based on who is selected this summer. Entirely possible both 10 and 40 could be ranked ahead of them. 10 is likely.

 

[Foppa2118]

That's still "better" considering at least 3 of the guys you listed won't be prospects next year.

It's obviously better with them than without. The idea of the state of the team/prospect pool with regard to young players coming in to fill roles for the future, is the same with two 21 year olds and one soon to be 20 year old. Doesn't matter if they'll be removing the "prospect" tag next year.

 

[cgf]

They did ok with #84 taking Wood, but he was still behind lots of other young D men on the Avs, and Bleackley hadn't establised himself yet, and both eventually ended up being included in a trade. Something that by itself didn't hurt the pipleline a great deal for the Avs, but it did compound how bad the 2014 draft looked by itself for them.

Yeah, Wood wasn't behind very many dmen in our pipeline at all. Peacock & Woody were ahead of him, but that was about it. Meloche would've probably passed him as well before either was ready for the NHL; but by that point Barrie could be gone, EJ could be broken down, and any or all of Zads/Bigras/Meloche could've busted. Losing him did hurt our pipeline a lot. Now our only RHD behind EJ & Barrie is Meloche; and though I adore him...someday he will be the perfect partner for Zadorov on our top pairing...he still has a long ways to go himself.

Funny thing is if they still had Bleackley and Wood they'd still be some of our better prospects.

Truth. JTC & Mikko are our only forward prospects closer to making the NHL. And though I can see either of Beaudin or Greer surpassing Bleackley someday, they're still behind him in their development curves atm...and tbh I'm not sure JCB has the hands to keep up with his mind, like he would need to hit a level higher that's actually significantly higher than Bleackley's; while AJG still has so far to go that he's no-safe-bet...still bummed it didn't work out with him because of stupid s***, but Wood is the one that really irks me; even if he was gunna need a lot of time & someone to watch over him to make sure he keeps his nose-clean/focus.

 

[cgf]

damn it

 

[Foppa2118]

Yeah, Wood wasn't behind very many dmen in our pipeline at all. Peacock & Woody were ahead of him, but that was about it. Meloche would've probably passed him as well before either was ready for the NHL; but by that point Barrie could be gone, EJ could be broken down, and any or all of Zads/Bigras/Meloche could've busted. Losing him did hurt our pipeline a lot. Now our only RHD behind EJ & Barrie is Meloche; and though I adore him...someday he will be the perfect partner for Zadorov on our top pairing...he still has a long ways to go himself.

This first bolded sentence is a huge leap in logic to the second though cgf.

Barrie would be gone and not replaced? EJ would be broken down in a couple years and also not replaced? Zads, Bigras, and Meloche could have busted? Sure if all of those things happen they'd be in trouble, but I'd say the only one that is realistic is Meloche being an unknown. I think the rest we're about on as solid ground as any other team with regard to their players/top prospects.

I don't think the right side issue is a big one either. EJ plays the right side. Barrie plays the right side and it's unknown what a potential return for him could be, or what UFA's they could sign. Beauchemin and Bigras can both play the right side well. Meloche plays the right side.

 

[cgf]

This first bolded sentence is a huge leap in logic to the second though cgf.

Barrie would be gone and not replaced? EJ would be broken down in a couple years and also not replaced? Zads, Bigras, and Meloche could have busted? Sure if all of those things happen they'd be in trouble, but I'd say the only one that is realistic is Meloche being an unknown. I think the rest we're about on as solid ground as any other team and their players/top prospects.

EJ plays the right side. Barrie plays the right side and it's unknown what a potential return for him could be, or what UFA's they could sign. Beauchemin and Bigras can both play the right side well. Meloche plays the right side. I don't think the right side issue is a big one.

It wouldn't have taken all of those things happening for Wood to become important for this, just one or two. I love Zads and hype him like no one else on this board; but he's still a risk as his development could stagnate long before he becomes the dynamic #1 dman that he has the skills & creativity to become. Bigras' smarts & skating make you fall in love immediately, but we still need to see him develop-physically/adjust-to-man-strength and figure out how to work his offensive game in the NHL. And loche is just as exciting, his tenacity, defensive prowess, puck skillls, ability to generate shots on net, and smarts are so easy to grow enamored with; but his skating is still a work in progress that must continue improving before he can play to his ability in hte NHL and he's going to need to learn how to walk the line between mean & dirty in the NHL...both are absolutely not certainties yet. Nevermind the general risk of his development just stagnating at some point along the way. Woods certainly has warts of his own; his skating & lack of physicality; but that's why it's important to have prospect cover. If any of the three above him to stumble, having him percolating behind them would be crucial...and even if they all do make good on their talent, EJ's decline isn't a question of if, but when. And when that comes having that extra top-4 prospect on the third pairing will be imperative to a smooth.

But fine, ignore that part of my post. Wood was behind Peacock, Woody, & Meloche in time, that's it...and that's counting the 2 NHLers as prospects. Without them he'd be our 2nd best dman prospect pending the draft.

 

[Foppa2118]

Fine, ignore that part of my post. Wood was behind Peacock, Woody, & Meloche in time, that's it...and that's counting the 2 NHLers as prospects. Without them he'd be our 2nd best dman prospect pending the draft.

I think that's fair. Like I said earlier though I think Wood would have to be considered tied for all intents and purposes with other guys like Mironov, Geertsen, and Butcher. None of them have really established themselves, and any of them could turn out better than each other, or even none of them could pan out.

Also there's really only six spots on an NHL blueline. If you consider EJ, Bigras, and Zadorov not going anywhere, and along with Barrie (or his replacement) part of the blueline's future, that's only two spots you really need to fill with prospects, UFA's, or trades. If Meloche makes it, that's one.

I think the more pertinent wave of D prospects will be the ones taken in the next couple years. They're the ones that will be the next wave that replaces some of those guys that form the top 6 we're talking about. Wood would have been a little ahead in development by then, and they'd have made a choice on him one way or another.

 

[cgf]

I think that's fair. Like I said earlier though I think Wood would have to be considered tied for all intents and purposes with other guys like Mironov, Geertsen, and Butcher. None of them have really established themselves, and any of them could turn out better than each other, or even none of them could pan out.

Also there's really only six spots on an NHL blueline. If you consider EJ, Bigras, and Zadorov not going anywhere, and along with Barrie (or his replacement) part of the blueline's future, that's only two spots you really need to fill with prospects, UFA's, or trades. If Meloche makes it, that's one.

There was an argument for Mironov over Wood because how much closer to being NHL ready he was...but that has gone out the window following his extension in moscow...and Wood's potential blew Geertsen & Butcher's out of the water, while not being substantially further from NHL-readiness than either of them. I still like Geertsen's chance of becoming a nasty 3rd pairing guy with enough puck skills not to be a liability; but Wood's potential is just on another level.

As for the blue line clogging up, Meloche and Wood will probably crack the NHL...if they develop well...before EJ starts falling apart, but I'm not sure that either of them will be truly ready for a top 4 gig before EJ starts breaking down; so having both breaking into that level around the time EJ is falling out of that level (give or take a season) would be huge. If we draft a kid this year who can be ready on a similar time line that'll be great but with the importence of dmen, I'd rather have one highly talented prospect too many, than one too few...especially with the reality of youth development & how many promising kids stagnate far below their ceilings or bust outright.

 

[Foppa2118]

There was an argument for Mironov over Wood because how much closer to being NHL ready he was...but that has gone out the window following his extension in moscow...and Wood's potential blew Geertsen & Butcher's out of the water, while not being substantially further from NHL-readiness than either of them. I still like Geertsen's chance of becoming a nasty 3rd pairing guy with enough puck skills not to be a liability; but Wood's potential is just on another level.

True but potential is only one part of it, and very dependent on the likelihood to reach it.

He's still fairly raw, and I don't think his potential is really that of a legit all around top pairing guy. More of a big guy with a good shot that puts up numbers. That ceiling falls more into a 2nd pairing type role. A very nice thing to have, but then consider the likelihood he reaches that, and it's no slam dunk.

It could even be argued it's more likely Geertsen or Mironov become 3rd pairing guys, or 7th/8th D, while maybe Wood never really makes it.

That's why I consider them essentially tied at this point, because they need another couple years to really seperate themselves. I don't think the Avs really had a great idea either, but I think they probably viewed it as such. Him behind those others we mentioned, and more or less tied with some other guys that would take a couple more years development.

 

[cgf]

I don't think Wood was a future top pairing guy like Parayko or anything; but I don't think he was much further away from contributing than either Geertsen or Butcher, while potentially making a much bigger contribution. I also am not sure that I buy the odds of Wood not making it all being significantly higher than those of Butcher or Geertsen never making it. Even if Wood stays soft & doesn't hit his potential he could have an NHL career as a 3rd pairing guy & PP-specialist.

And Mironov's not gunna be an option for us for so long, that his advantage in NHL-readiness just doesn't apply anymore.

 

[Foppa2118]

I don't think Wood was a future top pairing guy like Parayko or anything; but I don't think he was much further away from contributing than either Geertsen or Butcher, while potentially making a much bigger contribution. I also am not sure that I buy the odds of Wood not making it all being significantly higher than those of Butcher or Geertsen never making it. Even if Wood stays soft & doesn't hit his potential he could have an NHL career as a 3rd pairing guy & PP-specialist.

And Mironov's not gunna be an option for us for so long, that his advantage in NHL-readiness just doesn't apply anymore.

I wouldn't say Wood's chances of not making it are significantly higher, just a little higher. Not much though. It evens out his higher ceiling a bit, that's all.

I wouldn't argue with you if you thought Wood was a better prospect then them though. I just don't think we know.

With Mironov it's a little unclear, but it looks like we can still hold his rights indefinitely under the new CBA if we offer him a contract and he turns it down. Then they classify him as a "defected player" like Columbus did with Merzlikins, because the KHL doesn't have a transfer agreement in place.

Merzlikins was 20 when they drafted him in 2014. Mironov was 20 when the Avs drafted him in 2015.

"With respect to Latvian goaltending prospect Elvis Merzlikins, who was drafted No. 76 overall in 2014, he was 20 years old when drafted and is under contract to a team in a league (Swiss League) that does NOT have a transfer agreement with the NHL.

Earlier this year, the Blue Jackets exercised their option to deem Merzlikins a “defected player,” meaning they keep him on their reserve list and retain his rights indefinitely."

http://bluejackets.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=884519

 

[Foppa]

wrong thread

 

[henchman21]

I think it is important to remember that Mironov may be a left shot, but he is a RD. I'm not nearly as high on Mironov (and his prospects of coming over) as some, but I can see arguments that Mironov has a shorter timeline than Wood and is more certain.

I'd say Meloche is much closer to being NHL ready than Wood is and has a higher ceiling. I'm one of HF's biggest fans of Wood (I've been pimping him since he was drafted), but he is a big time project. Even after this season... he is probably 3 full seasons away from being NHL ready, maybe 4. I'll be shocked if Meloche isn't ready in 2.

In the trade, Wood is the player that I think is worth discussing as the big loss. He had upside and was a fairly rare combo of size, handedness, and offensive capability. It would have been a long road and on the organizational depth chart, he was down quite a bit, but he had something. With Bleackley, I get the part of not wanting to throw away a first round pick, but he wasn't going to live up to those expectations. Even when things were going well, he was on track to be a tweener, maybe 2nd line player if things went perfectly. Things have gone a bit off the rails and there are questions to that ultimate upside among other things. If he is more of a 3rd liner in the future, that is nothing to scoff at, but it also isn't worth crying about spilt milk over. I'm personally as confident in Beaudin being a 3rd liner as I am Bleackley. As a winger, I have as much confidence in Greer as I do Bleackley. I'm far more confident in Compher than I am Bleackley.

I've long held the notion that a team's future should be looked at through a 23 and under lens... when you are talking forwards in the organization there, I think you'd be very hard pressed to rank Bleackley in the top 6 of that group and I could even see a debate about the top 9. With Wood he is at very least outside the top 3. How you feel about Mironov, Geertsen, Siemens, and Butcher influences where Wood ultimately would fall.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think it is important to remember that Mironov may be a left shot, but he is a RD. I'm not nearly as high on Mironov (and his prospects of coming over) as some, but I can see arguments that Mironov has a shorter timeline than Wood and is more certain.

I'd say Meloche is much closer to being NHL ready than Wood is and has a higher ceiling. I'm one of HF's biggest fans of Wood (I've been pimping him since he was drafted), but he is a big time project. Even after this season... he is probably 3 full seasons away from being NHL ready, maybe 4. I'll be shocked if Meloche isn't ready in 2.

In the trade, Wood is the player that I think is worth discussing as the big loss. He had upside and was a fairly rare combo of size, handedness, and offensive capability. It would have been a long road and on the organizational depth chart, he was down quite a bit, but he had something. With Bleackley, I get the part of not wanting to throw away a first round pick, but he wasn't going to live up to those expectations. Even when things were going well, he was on track to be a tweener, maybe 2nd line player if things went perfectly. Things have gone a bit off the rails and there are questions to that ultimate upside among other things. If he is more of a 3rd liner in the future, that is nothing to scoff at, but it also isn't worth crying about spilt milk over. I'm personally as confident in Beaudin being a 3rd liner as I am Bleackley. As a winger, I have as much confidence in Greer as I do Bleackley. I'm far more confident in Compher than I am Bleackley.

I've long held the notion that a team's future should be looked at through a 23 and under lens... when you are talking forwards in the organization there, I think you'd be very hard pressed to rank Bleackley in the top 6 of that group and I could even see a debate about the top 9. With Wood he is at very least outside the top 3. How you feel about Mironov, Geertsen, Siemens, and Butcher influences where Wood ultimately would fall.

I'm very much in agreement with all of the assessments you made here.

 

[CalderKing21]

We aren't the only team that hasn't had much luck with the 2014 draft at least. Browsing a few other boards the last few weeks, and there have been at least a couple other teams that didn't find much there either.

Still, the top 4 picks are not even in your organization. You may only sign and spend time developing Linholm and Natel. 2 out of 7 is awful.
That's beyond 2012 draft bad. 2011 and 2010 were only saved by Lando and Picks.

This is like watching the Yankees be terrible at drafting before they finally got a clue.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Speaking of, our old friend Mario Duhamel is going to coach Gatineau (and Meloche next year) now. He was the assistant GM of the Huskies. I don't know how he is as a coach but I'm sure will be good for Meloche. Hope he gets used more.

Geertsen and Butcher are a notch down IMO. Wood was above them for me. Meloche definitely higher and Mironov if you want to ignore his contract. I'm not positive that any D taken at 40 or lower this year would fall higher in the pecking order than Wood was anyway.

Getting a draft pick to develop into a NHL 3rd liner for this org would be a giant accomplishment, we can't dismiss having that taken out of our pool.

The pipeline is the pipeline. It's the reserve, it's the depth and development, it's the system. If a lot of young talent is on the NHL roster that's great but you still need options in the system. Considering this org has had issues with drafting and developing for the system it all goes together. They had to make a big trade to even get a lot of those young assets skews it too.

 

[cgf]

[snip]

We can hold onto his rights, but we'll still have to wait out his new contract...unless it included some sort of unreported buy-out clause he can trigger. So even if we don't "lose" him, we can't add him to the avs before Wood/Meloche would be entering the mix anyway. Which is why it negates his readiness advantage.

I don't disagree with henchy on much of substance. Though I'm thrilled to have Greer, I wouldn't use the word confidence with him; if only because of how much more polish he still needs; but that's really just semantics and everything else I'd agree with. I like Mironov as a player and still think there's a good chance that one of Geertsen/Boikov is able to become a legit 3rd pairing guy & PK-specialist in this league; but I don't see Mironov coming over any time soon...which plays to Wood's talent advantage...don't think Geertsen or Boikov will be ready significantly sooner than Wood, and don't rate Siemens/Butcher's chances much with this organization.


I should clarify that when I said that 'Wood was closer but Meloche would likely pass him', I literally just meant at which stage in their development they were. I am in full agreement that Meloche should be ready for his crack at the NHL a full year (or even two) before Wood...and that I am much more confident in him becoming an NHL top 4 guy than I am in Wood doing the same.

 

[ABasin]

IMO both would be in the top 10, but be on the lower end of that last. If you consider Zadorov a prospect still... I'd at least put Zadorov, Bigras, Meloche, Compher, Greer, and Rantanen ahead of them. Beaudin could be argued,

What changed between February and now, in regards to Wood?

 

[cgf]

What changed between February and now, in regards to Wood?

Nothing? He's always been behind Zads, woody & loche as a prospect. Even with the pedantic comment in my earlier post.

 

[henchman21]

Speaking of, our old friend Mario Duhamel is going to coach Gatineau (and Meloche next year) now. He was the assistant GM of the Huskies. I don't know how he is as a coach but I'm sure will be good for Meloche. Hope he gets used more.

Geertsen and Butcher are a notch down IMO. Wood was above them for me. Meloche definitely higher and Mironov if you want to ignore his contract. I'm not positive that any D taken at 40 or lower this year would fall higher in the pecking order than Wood was anyway.

Getting a draft pick to develop into a NHL 3rd liner for this org would be a giant accomplishment, we can't dismiss having that taken out of our pool.

it was nice to see Mario finally got that job! Only a year after it was promised to him...

Agreed... I like Wood quite a bit.

To a point I agree, but to another point, 3rd liners are not real expensive. Comeau is a pretty good one and his contract isn't bad. Other 3rd line capable players sign in the 1.5-3.0m range every summer. Beyond the cost though, Bleackley isn't the only 3rd line capable prospect. Compher should at very least be one. Greer has the mindset, frame, and mentality if his offense doesn't come around. Beaudin has the mind and frame to be a good NHL player... hands and pure skill level are a question still. Nantel has that upside (though I don't have a good amount of confidence of him reaching that). Bleackley isn't the only prospect with that upside.

What changed between February and now, in regards to Wood?

Nothing really. Greer pushed his way up with his turning of a corner, and Compher solidified himself. Naturally he just got pushed down. Z, Bigras, and Meloche were always ahead in my mind.

 

[AslanRH]

Still, the top 4 picks are not even in your organization. You may only sign and spend time developing Linholm and Natel. 2 out of 7 is awful.
That's beyond 2012 draft bad. 2011 and 2010 were only saved by Lando and Picks.

This is like watching the Yankees be terrible at drafting before they finally got a clue.

I get it, really I do. Even that math isn't too complicated for me.

Was just pointing out that quite a few teams are not getting/won't be getting much from that draft, including the players that they kept in their organization.