Prospect Info: 2015-16 Colorado Avalanche Prospects Thread II (QMJHL, NCAA and Europe)
- Thread starter tigervixxxen
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- Feb 24, 2012
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I'm with Chet that the goal should be 2 NHL players from every draft. 3 or more would be awesome but it isn't realistic (in really deep drafts, it should be the goal). I don't mind trading youth and picks for established NHL players, in fact, sometimes it has to happen. The Varly trade was a large price to pay, but it was completely the right move. Boedker was a move shifting pieces they could afford to move without sacrificing the top prospects.
If we consider Zadorov a prospect which is debatable, but since he is in the AHL developing I think we are looking at a top 10 of:
1. Rantanen
2. Zadorov
3. Bigras
4. Meloche
5. Pickard
6. Compher
7. Beaudin
8. Greer
9. Geertsen
10. Siemens
HM Mironov
HM Butcher
HM Martin
Wood and Bleackley would have slotted somewhere in the 6-8 range. The Avs gave up some depth, but nothing that really risked the future. The still have their top 3 D prospects, top F prospect, and top 2 goalie prospects. Compher and Bleackley are probably equivalent F prospects (I'd give a slight edge to Compher ATM). So you could argue (and have a legitimate point) that the Avs kept their top 2 forward prospects as well.
On to signings... I think shipping off Wood and Bleackley opened the door for some players. Namely Boikov, Butcher, and Pepin to earn contracts (Compher and Nantel were going to get contracts regardless IMO).
If we consider Zadorov a prospect which is debatable, but since he is in the AHL developing I think we are looking at a top 10 of:
1. Rantanen
2. Zadorov
3. Bigras
4. Meloche
5. Pickard
6. Compher
7. Beaudin
8. Greer
9. Geertsen
10. Siemens
HM Mironov
HM Butcher
HM Martin
Wood and Bleackley would have slotted somewhere in the 6-8 range. The Avs gave up some depth, but nothing that really risked the future. The still have their top 3 D prospects, top F prospect, and top 2 goalie prospects. Compher and Bleackley are probably equivalent F prospects (I'd give a slight edge to Compher ATM). So you could argue (and have a legitimate point) that the Avs kept their top 2 forward prospects as well.
On to signings... I think shipping off Wood and Bleackley opened the door for some players. Namely Boikov, Butcher, and Pepin to earn contracts (Compher and Nantel were going to get contracts regardless IMO).
What do we have left in terms of picks ?
Everything except our 4th?
What I like about our prospects is that in my opinion they're knocking at the door. It's possible Zadorov, Bigras, Compher, Rantanen and Pickard all are NHLer starting next year. That said, it also means that our prospect pool will be god damn awful after that. We need to do well at the 2016 draft. Seriously.
Everything except our 4th?
What I like about our prospects is that in my opinion they're knocking at the door. It's possible Zadorov, Bigras, Compher, Rantanen and Pickard all are NHLer starting next year. That said, it also means that our prospect pool will be god damn awful after that. We need to do well at the 2016 draft. Seriously.
- Feb 24, 2012
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bromando
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- Jun 4, 2013
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This year's draft will be really important, especially in those first three picks. We could (and hopefully will) have Rantanen, Zadorov, Pickard and Bigras all on the Avs next year with Compher as a possibility as well. That pool looks a lot lighter without them in it and Meloche is really the only high end talent left at that point. Wood and Bleackley (the 2017 3rd and Smith) weren't going to solve that problem but they at least make the pool deeper to buffer it.
With that said, I don't think we need an influx of top end talent immediately next year, especially if you have Boedker (I would guess) and Rantanen both in the top 6 and Zadorov and Bigras on D. We still have a few possibilities for bottom 6 roles and lower pairing D from the prospect pool so while the trades yesterday hurt the pool a little bit, it doesn't really set us back any further than we would've been unless Wood gets real good.
With that said, I don't think we need an influx of top end talent immediately next year, especially if you have Boedker (I would guess) and Rantanen both in the top 6 and Zadorov and Bigras on D. We still have a few possibilities for bottom 6 roles and lower pairing D from the prospect pool so while the trades yesterday hurt the pool a little bit, it doesn't really set us back any further than we would've been unless Wood gets real good.
- Feb 24, 2012
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Sadly with the Avs' positioning, they are not going to get an amazing set of picks there. The first rounder should be a decent player... 2nd and 3rd, those are going to be real questionable. There just isn't a huge amount of depth in the draft.
bromando
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- Jun 4, 2013
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I'm not expecting the best but do you think we can at least pull a Meloche/Bigras level player from the 1st round? Are you looking at 3rd line/second pairing at best from the second and third rounds?
- Feb 24, 2012
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I'm probably down on this draft more than most people. I see a bunch of future 2nd and 3rd line (middle and bottom pairing) types in the teens and 20s. Some players that I am high on are bound to fall. It is just how far will they fall? I don't see the 2nd and 3rd round picks bring back more than projects or low ceiling players. The first is probably a middle 6 forward or middle pairing defender.
With the Avs likely in the 13-17 range, they are after the bigger dropoffs in the draft.
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
- Feb 24, 2012
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I wouldn't say that... no higher than 17-18 is probably safe. The Avs are at 15 now (Philly not being in the playoffs pushes them to the lottery ahead of the Avs). A good stretch from the Avs and a bad from the Pens/Isles/Bruins could easily change things.
Gigantor The Goalie
Speak for the Goalies
And while there is a drop off for forwards and defense in this draft I'm looking at the goalies (especially the CHL ones) and seeing some strong candidates up till the 5th round. So don't despair friends, we can still get a strong prospect later on in the draft.
AvsFan2123
Registered User
That's why I would like for them to sign undrafted prospects who tore up their respective junior league. Wishing we were in on more of them.
Always a ton of guys in Europe too. Not sure how old you'd want to be targeting but there are 22-24 year old guys that are unsigned and doing extremely well.
Probably close to just being ready to compete in camp and earn a spot. Especially if they play in places like Liiga, SHL, KHL or NLA.
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
Gigantor The Goalie
Speak for the Goalies
I agree with this. I believe we'll see a decent amount of turnover in San Antonio regarding players and maybe a bit of the coaching staff. The Front Office has given the current system about three years to improve along with the players there. It's at least been a disappointment so I believe we'll at least see 5-10 new faces in San Antonio.
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
would be nice if they'd look at replacing Dean but if they keep not giving him a ton to work with I don't know how they'll get to that point either. I do expect maybe ven half the roster to turn over myself too. They have a lot of guys to sign.
- Feb 24, 2012
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I think we see a college UFA or two and a Euro or two combined with the signings of some prospects. There will be lots of new faces though.
Gigantor The Goalie
Speak for the Goalies
With all the talk and the fact that Mikko Rantanen is still down in the AHL, I don't see the Avalanche just saying screw the San Antonio Rampage. I believe that they are dedicated to making sure the team is balanced to develop prospects and compete. Which means this is going to be an interesting summer prospect wise.
- Feb 24, 2012
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I don't think they are saying screw it, but I think it is fair to say they really don't care about a championship caliber AHL team.
McMetal
Writer of Wrongs
- Sep 29, 2015
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Even if they did, they don't have a whole lot to work with down there, and the NHL club will always have to be the top priority. I'm not sure what's happening in SA is really a result of a conscious decision as much as just not having the pieces to do everything they might want to do.
- Oct 24, 2008
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Hoping we get to see Compher, Nantel, Pepin, Geertsen, Boikov, and Martin regularly with SA next year. Perhaps Pepin and Boikov would need time in the ECHL. Meloche, Greer, Beaudin, and perhaps Mironov the following year.
There will be talent to work with, but I don't think it's a bad thing to say most of the young talent will be on display in Denver. The AHL is good for development, but nobody begins the year aiming to win the Calder Cup. I'm much more interested in NHL success. If the AHL team only has a couple of interesting prospects each year, but successfully develop them and promote them to the NHL, that's a damn good program in my books. For instance, the Rampage suck this year, but they'll be responsible for providing us with Bigras, Zadorov, Rantanen, and Pickard. That's excellent development.
There will be talent to work with, but I don't think it's a bad thing to say most of the young talent will be on display in Denver. The AHL is good for development, but nobody begins the year aiming to win the Calder Cup. I'm much more interested in NHL success. If the AHL team only has a couple of interesting prospects each year, but successfully develop them and promote them to the NHL, that's a damn good program in my books. For instance, the Rampage suck this year, but they'll be responsible for providing us with Bigras, Zadorov, Rantanen, and Pickard. That's excellent development.
tigervixxxen
Optimism=Delusional
It should be a concern that Rantanen is still there on a team they just got rid of two centers, expect him to play center and carry the position now and when teams are seriously starting to run him because not only is he the best player in the league (especially with lord Nylander called up) he's BY FAR the best player on the team. So no, they didn't leave him there to benefit the Rampage.
Yes, the Avs always will be the priority, as it should be. But it's pretty much clear they aren't going to use the minor league team for their depth. They'd rather use waiver claims and buy their depth with medium assets. They still care about developing the true pieces they believe in but the rest is just going to be fodder. They'll add a few late round picks, some euros and AHL FAs and call it good for next year. Compher could be the only one with any sort of future assuming they sign him and he even sees significant AHL time.
Bigras spent not even 3 months there, Zadorov has nearly 100 NHL games played, Rantanen is an elite talent. I'm not so sure the Rampage in particular changed the course of their development to the point where I'd credit them with being a good development system. Pickard truly has been developing and I'd say Allaire gets some credit there.
Yes, the Avs always will be the priority, as it should be. But it's pretty much clear they aren't going to use the minor league team for their depth. They'd rather use waiver claims and buy their depth with medium assets. They still care about developing the true pieces they believe in but the rest is just going to be fodder. They'll add a few late round picks, some euros and AHL FAs and call it good for next year. Compher could be the only one with any sort of future assuming they sign him and he even sees significant AHL time.
Bigras spent not even 3 months there, Zadorov has nearly 100 NHL games played, Rantanen is an elite talent. I'm not so sure the Rampage in particular changed the course of their development to the point where I'd credit them with being a good development system. Pickard truly has been developing and I'd say Allaire gets some credit there.
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- Feb 24, 2012
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I see no issue with Rantanen getting some time at center. He was a center before and got moved. If he has truly mastered the AHL at wing, it gives him a new challenge and potentially more options for the Avs moving forward. Do AHL teams run guys... yeah it happens, but how many bad injuries actually result to top players in the league?
Bigras, Zadorov, and Rantanen are all getting developed. Zadorov may have 83 career games, but only 16 are with the Avs. He has played more in the AHL with the organization so far. Same story with Bigras and Rantanen. Bigras is only up because the stopgaps were all terrible. They were not helped immensely by their time in the AHL, but undoubtedly all 3 are better players because of it. That also doesn't take into account Picks, Everberg, and Rendulic's development.
The organization also hasn't had much of a chance to get the players they want in the AHL yet. The 2013 and 2014 drafts had an obvious Roy and Sakic influence, they also were not totally thrilled with the results either (hence Pracey being canned). To this point the 2013 draft is the only one that can be paying dividends in the AHL, and it has with Bigras and Martin (may still with Butcher and Geertsen). 2014 won't have an impact until next season.
I don't think it is fair to chastise their lack of belief in their development system on one hand, and then turn around a chastise them for keeping Rantanen and Zadorov down to learn more. It is one or the other...
Bigras, Zadorov, and Rantanen are all getting developed. Zadorov may have 83 career games, but only 16 are with the Avs. He has played more in the AHL with the organization so far. Same story with Bigras and Rantanen. Bigras is only up because the stopgaps were all terrible. They were not helped immensely by their time in the AHL, but undoubtedly all 3 are better players because of it. That also doesn't take into account Picks, Everberg, and Rendulic's development.
The organization also hasn't had much of a chance to get the players they want in the AHL yet. The 2013 and 2014 drafts had an obvious Roy and Sakic influence, they also were not totally thrilled with the results either (hence Pracey being canned). To this point the 2013 draft is the only one that can be paying dividends in the AHL, and it has with Bigras and Martin (may still with Butcher and Geertsen). 2014 won't have an impact until next season.
I don't think it is fair to chastise their lack of belief in their development system on one hand, and then turn around a chastise them for keeping Rantanen and Zadorov down to learn more. It is one or the other...
Nihiliste
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- Feb 8, 2010
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On this note, I find the idea of firing Pracey and leaving Hepple at the helm while failing to significantly expand our scouting staff beyond the existing personnel (who are drastically overstretched outside the CHL) to be a bit dubious as a strategy for improving our drafting.
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