2014 NYI Mock Offseason

[First Blood]

We already did the easiest thing to fix the pk...

http://www.extraskater.com/players/goalies?page=2&min_gp=25&sit=4v5

Out of 59 goalies to play 21+ games, Nabokov was 57th in sh s%. Poulin was 54th. Halak was 7th.

If you take Halak's .910 s% and apply it to the 244 shots faced in the 68 games Poulin and Nabokov played, we would have given up 22 pp goals, rather than the 41 given up by Poulin and Nabokov. Our pk % would have been about 85%, or one of the top pk units in the league.

Granted, we probably would have given up more pk shots (there would have been more pk time since less goals were scored), but it still would have been a solid unit with good goaltending.

Another way to look at it, Nabokov actually faced less shots while shorthanded than most goaltenders...
http://www.extraskater.com/players/goalies?sit=4v5&min_gp=25&sort=sa_60

Poulin faced about an average number of shots (could be because of the high number of rebounds). In any case, with better goaltending the pk should be fine.

Plus, you'd like to think that Calvin de Haan, Travis Hamonic, and maybe even Donovan/Czuczman can look better for next season

 

[Felix Unger]

We already did the easiest thing to fix the pk...

Look at these faceoff #'s and tell me we don't need to do more here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....dedFaceOffsLost&viewName=faceOffPercentageAll

Believe me, it's worse than you're remembering it.

 

[seafoam]

Plus, you'd like to think that Calvin de Haan, Travis Hamonic, and maybe even Donovan/Czuczman can look better for next season

Hickey too, I think his confidence really started to come on late in the season.

 

[seafoam]

Look at these faceoff #'s and tell me we don't need to do more here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....dedFaceOffsLost&viewName=faceOffPercentageAll

Believe me, it's worse than you're remembering it.

I'd like to echo Dan-o's concern. Look at how important Jarret Stoll was for the Kings playoffs success.

 

[A Pointed Stick]

Obviously goaltending is important, but the removal of AMac from 25+ minutes on the blueline was huge.

 

[Felix Unger]

Let me break it down. In 2010-2011 we had Konopka taking most PK draws. This past year we had Cizikas. Konopka was over 50%, Cizikas is at 34%. We went from 83% PK to 78%. Now most SH FO % is lower than 50% because of help, but it puts the unit at a massive disadvantage.

Goc, for example, gets a solid 45% SH FO %. That's a big difference. He's available.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Obviously goaltending is important, but the removal of AMac from 25+ minutes on the blueline was huge.

He was a possession anchor, dragging his on-ice teammates down into the depths of the defensive zone.

His departure is likely the primary reason for the late-season turnaround.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I'd like to echo Dan-o's concern. Look at how important Jarret Stoll was for the Kings playoffs success.

I would share your concern.

We need a faceoff specialist for the PK BADLY.

 

[kasper11]

Look at these faceoff #'s and tell me we don't need to do more here:

http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats....dedFaceOffsLost&viewName=faceOffPercentageAll

Believe me, it's worse than you're remembering it.

Is 200 faceoffs enough to make a decision based on? Seems like a small sample size to me. I see that he was at 48.4% last year, 52.5% the year before and a terrible 40.9% in his rookie year overall.

Was last year a bad year, or was the year before an aberration?

 

[BroadwayJay*]

We already did the easiest thing to fix the pk...

http://www.extraskater.com/players/goalies?page=2&min_gp=25&sit=4v5

Out of 59 goalies to play 21+ games, Nabokov was 57th in sh s%. Poulin was 54th. Halak was 7th.

If you take Halak's .910 s% and apply it to the 244 shots faced in the 68 games Poulin and Nabokov played, we would have given up 22 pp goals, rather than the 41 given up by Poulin and Nabokov. Our pk % would have been about 85%, or one of the top pk units in the league.

Granted, we probably would have given up more pk shots (there would have been more pk time since less goals were scored), but it still would have been a solid unit with good goaltending.

Another way to look at it, Nabokov actually faced less shots while shorthanded than most goaltenders...
http://www.extraskater.com/players/goalies?sit=4v5&min_gp=25&sort=sa_60

Poulin faced about an average number of shots (could be because of the high number of rebounds). In any case, with better goaltending the pk should be fine.

That is some beautiful analysis right there.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Is 200 faceoffs enough to make a decision based on? Seems like a small sample size to me. I see that he was at 48.4% last year, 52.5% the year before and a terrible 40.9% in his rookie year overall.

Was last year a bad year, or was the year before an aberration?

If he was a good possession player with a sub 50% faceoff, I'd be okay with it.

He's a sub 50% possession player with a sub 50% faceoff percentage. Obviously, the two drive each other. I would say that nothing is more important to a good PK than possession and faceoffs. That's how you send the puck down ice. When guys get pinned in the zone, that's how the goals against happen.

Maybe you're right though, perhaps Cizikas can build on '12-13 and rebound from a bad '13-14.

 

[Sheva7]

Is 200 faceoffs enough to make a decision based on? Seems like a small sample size to me. I see that he was at 48.4% last year, 52.5% the year before and a terrible 40.9% in his rookie year overall.

Was last year a bad year, or was the year before an aberration?

He's 23 and plays on a team mostly made up of other 23-25 yr olds. They aren't ready to win yet. So let the kid play it out. Let him develop.

What has this kid done to make u ppl think he won't improve his face off %? Is it that outrageous to think that a 23 yr old player can actually get better at something? Especially faceoffs of all things. Don't most young centres have trouble winning faceoffs when they first come into the league? I thought that was normal?

Jeez, It's not like Casey's 29...he's only been in the league like 2-3 yrs. Keep your pants on people!

 

[Felix Unger]

Is 200 faceoffs enough to make a decision based on? Seems like a small sample size to me. I see that he was at 48.4% last year, 52.5% the year before and a terrible 40.9% in his rookie year overall.

Was last year a bad year, or was the year before an aberration?

It has never been good SH. It's a special skill NYI needs and don't have.

Jeez, It's not like Casey's 29...he's only been in the league like 2-3 yrs. Keep your pants on people!

Your rhetorical range is staggering.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

He's 23 and plays on a team mostly made up of other 23-25 yr olds. They aren't ready to win yet. So let the kid play it out. Let him develop.

What has this kid done to make u ppl think he won't improve his face off %? Is it that outrageous to think that a 23 yr old player can actually get better at something? Especially faceoffs of all things. Don't most young centres have trouble winning faceoffs when they first come into the league? I thought that was normal?

Jeez, It's not like Casey's 29...he's only been in the league like 2-3 yrs. Keep your pants on people!

The issue is where his ceiling is. Do you see him advancing beyond a fourth line role? If not, then there really isn't reason to consider him an important part of the future, as fourth liners are replacement-level players.

I'm not married to the idea of moving forward with out him, perhaps you want to think on it and pitch to us where his ceiling is, what you see improving and why, etc...

I'd certainly listen, I'd much rather that our own homegrown assets develop nicely than be forced to acquire players from the outside.

 

[Poliz24]

So when do we see the hometown kiddies, CdH, Lee and Cizikas get deals done? I don't really want to see them go to July 1 w/o deals. I like all 3 of them especially Cdh and Cizikas though cizikas is expendable if sundstrom plays well.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

So when do we see the hometown kiddies, CdH, Lee and Cizikas get deals done? I don't really want to see them go to July 1 w/o deals. I like all 3 of them especially Cdh and Cizikas though cizikas is expendable if sundstrom plays well.

I think in another thread it was discussed that qualifying offers have to get made before the draft.

I will look that up later and get back to you.

 

[Felix Unger]

I'd certainly listen, I'd much rather that our own homegrown assets develop nicely than be forced to acquire players from the outside.

This is really the rub. Unless we know what the budget is, we don't really know what to say. I mean, if we could get a guy like Goc for 2M AAV/3yrs, it's a no-brainer. Of course, that's unlikely to happen.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

This is really the rub. Unless we know what the budget is, we don't really know what to say. I mean, if we could get a guy like Goc for 2M AAV/3yrs, it's a no-brainer. Of course, that's unlikely to happen.

On the other hand, fourth line assets don't typically cost you a lot so when you're looking at low-cost places to upgrade; fourth line should be one of those places.

 

[Sheva7]

The issue is where his ceiling is. Do you see him advancing beyond a fourth line role? If not, then there really isn't reason to consider him an important part of the future, as fourth liners are replacement-level players.

I'm not married to the idea of moving forward with out him, perhaps you want to think on it and pitch to us where his ceiling is, what you see improving and why, etc...

I'd certainly listen, I'd much rather that our own homegrown assets develop nicely than be forced to acquire players from the outside.

I see him as having potential to be a solid 3rd line centre. But that shouldn't matter anyway because young quality 4th line centremen who can skate, hit and forecheck the way he does, don't come around as often as you think.

 

[seabass45]

I would think faceoffs are a pretty easy thing to work on and get better at, at least as a young hockey player. That said, Zeeker's shorthanded faceoff numbers are bruuuutal.

 

[Sheva7]

Go look at Darren Helms numbers from his first 3 yrs in the league. Might be a decent comparison there.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

I would think faceoffs are a pretty easy thing to work on and get better at, at least as a young hockey player. That said, Zeeker's shorthanded faceoff numbers are bruuuutal.

I would far prefer to carry a faceoff specialist over Eric Boulton.

We need to win short-handed faceoffs and we don't.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Regarding the qualifying offer date, it is June 29, the day after the draft ends:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...to-receive-offer-sheets-in-2014-nhl-offseason

 

[CaptDenisPotvin]

As far as PK is concerned i think Halak will be the biggest improvement.

First unit of Franz, Grabs, Hammer and DeHaan is not a bad unit. Should be better than most.

Its the second unit that scares me, i dont really see 2 more defensemen i would be extremely confident in putting out there. Im assuming Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Bailey, Okposo are all forward options (not the best) and the defense? Who knows Viz and hickey? Ouch

 

[BroadwayJay*]

As far as PK is concerned i think Halak will be the biggest improvement.

First unit of Franz, Grabs, Hammer and DeHaan is not a bad unit. Should be better than most.

Its the second unit that scares me, i dont really see 2 more defensemen i would be extremely confident in putting out there. Im assuming Cizikas, Clutterbuck, Bailey, Okposo are all forward options (not the best) and the defense? Who knows Viz and hickey? Ouch

My understanding is that Clutterbuck is a pretty good PKer. I'll see what I can find in the numbers and get back to you.