Speculation: 2014 - 2015 New York Rangers :: Roster building / proposal thread Part II

[Doctyl]

I don't think he'll cut it as the 2c. Said it weeks ago, still confident in my assessment.

He's going to underwhelm there.

1 or 2 year contract should benefit the Rangers most.

He was our 2C last year though

 

[Tawnos]

He was our 2C last year though

Too many people confuse performance with role.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Brassard will also be up against better competition this year as the 2c for the whole season

 

[Vitto79]

Too many people confuse performance with role.

Well they really had 2 second lines and since zuccarello was the leading scorer calling his C brassard a 2nd line centre isn't crazy

 

[Thirty One]

I don't think sliding into Richards' minutes is going break Brassard.

 

[JimmyG89]

The bigger issue is someone falling into Brassard's role. It may out a bigger burden on him. He can replicate Richards minutes to me. The big thing is can someone help out and step up and take Brassard's

 

[TheTakedown]

That chart is convincing... It works if there following happens:

Stepan scores 65-70, an increase of 8-13 points
Brassard scores 55-60 points, an increase of 10-15 points
Miller scores 40 points, nearly equal to brassard last year
Moore scores 20-25 points, about the same as last year.

Include the fact that we have 2 additional Right handed shots, and I think the power play actually improves next year with Boyle and Stempniak on it.

At a minimum were looking at the same production as last year + a functioning Nash...

 

[Ola]

Thank you.
This is another reason to just say no.
Even if he's 'ok' enough now, there is increased risk of cumulative damage (compared to ordinary everyday risk of a concussion could happen to anybody on any shift at any time), which adds to basis that investment is too high, and more important, if he becomes another Drury, we are screwed.

Bern, he could never become another Drury making 6.2 or whatever when the cap is 69-80m. Drurys portion of the cap equals to like 10-11m per today.

 

[Ola]

Pretty much this (the first paragraph) bu he's worth more than 4.5

That's the top 5 players above/below Brassard last year in points as per nhl.com removing guys on ELC or first time arbitration type awards and guys that definitely weren't centers like Cammalleri. I also included what the overall groups average % cap space they took up at the time they signed and showed what that would be in todays cap (5.1M). The CHEAPEST one of those contracts (Vermette: 6.31% of cap) would come out to 4.35M cap hit if signed now. Only Vermette and Jokinen would come in below 4.5M if signed now and Jokinen is the worst comparable on this list since he signed very short term deals at an older age.

Great stuff!

5-5.5m per seems perfectly reasonable. If we were to do the same next summer, the numbers will be closer to six. Then the summer after, 6.5m per and so forth.

The only potential hang-up should be deal restrictions.

 

[Zil]

That chart is convincing... It works if there following happens:

Stepan scores 65-70, an increase of 8-13 points
Brassard scores 55-60 points, an increase of 10-15 points
Miller scores 40 points, nearly equal to brassard last year
Moore scores 20-25 points, about the same as last year.

Include the fact that we have 2 additional Right handed shots, and I think the power play actually improves next year with Boyle and Stempniak on it.

At a minimum were looking at the same production as last year + a functioning Nash...

Brassard's going to put up 55-60 when he's never put up 50 before? Miller's going to put up 40 points this year when we don't even know if he's an NHLer yet? That's some extremely wishful thinking.

 

[LaffyTaffyNYR]

Brassard may hit 50.. (finally).. Stepan will be around 60.. even if Miller scores 40 (which is going out on a HUGE limb), that's still less points from our centers than last season. though a full year of St Louis should help that a little, as well as hopefully a FULL season from Nash

 

[Tawnos]

I don't think sliding into Richards' minutes is going break Brassard.

I don't either. I was just making a point. The one thing that chart doesn't show is that Richards was getting about 2 minutes more of ES TOI/G than Brassard was. Brassard put up 27 ES points last season. Richards put up just 5 more. To me, Brassard is ready to step into that role. He won't get 2 more minutes per game, but I don't think 5 points in the 1 minute extra per game I think he'll get is too high of an expectation over a full year. Particularly if he's getting the kinds of offensive zone starts Richards was getting.

 

[ThisYearsModel]

Great discussion here. If someone else (Boyle?) covers Richards' PP points and Brassard/Lombardi make up Richards' ES points they should be good. It will be interesting to see it play out.

 

[Riche16]

That chart is convincing... It works if there following happens:

Stepan scores 65-70, an increase of 8-13 points
Brassard scores 55-60 points, an increase of 10-15 points
Miller scores 40 points, nearly equal to brassard last year
Moore scores 20-25 points, about the same as last year.

Include the fact that we have 2 additional Right handed shots, and I think the power play actually improves next year with Boyle and Stempniak on it.

At a minimum were looking at the same production as last year + a functioning Nash...

Wow. I'm not convinced any of that is going to happen, let alone all of it.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Pretty much this (the first paragraph) bu he's worth more than 4.5

That's the top 5 players above/below Brassard last year in points as per nhl.com removing guys on ELC or first time arbitration type awards and guys that definitely weren't centers like Cammalleri. I also included what the overall groups average % cap space they took up at the time they signed and showed what that would be in todays cap (5.1M). The CHEAPEST one of those contracts (Vermette: 6.31% of cap) would come out to 4.35M cap hit if signed now. Only Vermette and Jokinen would come in below 4.5M if signed now and Jokinen is the worst comparable on this list since he signed very short term deals at an older age.

He's worth that much if you look at only points, sure.

 

[TurgePurge*]

If we make the playoffs, which is maybe like 75% as long as Hank is healthy, why do all these fancy regular season point projections matter? I thought you guys were in cup or bust mode.

 

[Infinitum Vitae*]

I think this is the year stepan puts the team on his back and hits 70-75 Pts

 

[kovazub94]

Wow. I'm not convinced any of that is going to happen, let alone all of it.

Because there are other, , more reasonable ways to replace / compensate for this production.

Stepan would need only 5 - 7 point increase. Given lack of last year's horrible early season circumstances, perfectly reasonable.

If we hypothesize that Nash replaces Poo, the a significant point production increase out of this LW spot is what will cover for the need to increase in Brassard's production and then some.

A whole season of already familiar with the team MSL instead of Cally and underwhelming quarter of MSL will definitely increase point production from this top 6 LW spot.

MCD continuing where he left off last season offensively, better production out of new PP QTB Boyle instead of Richards, both reasonable expectations. All of these enough to NOT expect more than 30 points specifically out of JT.

I didn't even mention continuing development of Kreider and what looks like a more offensive 4th line.

 

[Zil]

If we make the playoffs, which is maybe like 75% as long as Hank is healthy, why do all these fancy regular season point projections matter? I thought you guys were in cup or bust mode.

Because if the guys take steps forward during the regular season, it should carry over into the playoffs?

 

[One Winged Angel]

No. It's apples to apples.

No, it's not. Gretzky is the best player ever. Joe Thornton is not even close.

Gretzky was a free agent. Joe Thornton is not.

Gretzky had dimensions to his game that Thornton couldn't dream of. Gretzky was a better skater even at their respective points of their careers.

 

[kovazub94]

What's a bit troubling (at least to me) is that in order to accommodate cap beyond next year I don't see a scenario where the Rangers would not a step back in some important position (1C - 3C, top 4D) or the overall depth.

 

[Riche16]

Because there are other, , more reasonable ways to replace / compensate for this production.

Stepan would need only 5 - 7 point increase. Given lack of last year's horrible early season circumstances, perfectly reasonable.

If we hypothesize that Nash replaces Poo, the a significant point production increase out of this LW spot is what will cover for the need to increase in Brassard's production and then some.

A whole season of already familiar with the team MSL instead of Cally and underwhelming quarter of MSL will definitely increase point production from this top 6 LW spot.

MCD continuing where he left off last season offensively, better production out of new PP QTB Boyle instead of Richards, both reasonable expectations. All of these enough to NOT expect more than 30 points specifically out of JT.

I didn't even mention continuing development of Kreider and what looks like a more offensive 4th line.

So we're now moving Nash and MSL to left wing?

You know that Boyle is going to make a nearly abysmal PP better? Where have I heard that before?

You can try to shape it any way you want, including a more offensive 4th line (not sure where that comes from), but either way, I'm saying that you are counting those chix prior to having any eggs, let alone letting them hatch.

 

[bernmeister]

No no no. There's thinking outside the box using logic and there's thinking outside the box on acid.

I'm pretty sure I know which one you're getting at.

Your inference is my suggestions were devoid of logic. Not so.

In this particular case both bernmeister and anti-bernmeister offerings are logic based. But because the opposition is less complete and therefore less accurate, mine prevail.

To prove these points:

You support my critics who say taking Stepan out is a no no, unless we get a better C back.

That is logical and correct IN A VACUUM. BUT it is 1 dimensional.
It is like saying water is wet. Water IS wet. BUT
depending on circumstances it may also be solid or vapor.

The parallel of that which applies to our banter is I have said if you got SO much of a windfall in return, since every team does not rise or fall exclusively on its Cs (or any single position) then the net benefit to the team as a whole may be worth the sacrifice of a given individual.

So a standpoint of quantity --- total gained versus total lost --- is something to consider.
But also is not quite chemistry, but let's say complementary matches, in the sense of trying to establish an ideal fit.

If we keep Stepan and at some point there is a continued push for even better Ws to play with him, why should we be close minded to that?

But by the same token, we are already invested in Kreider, who can go either way with speed/power and Hagelin + MSL, who are primo/elite speedsters.

Speed is not a strongpoint to Step's game
Please admit and concede the point.

Again, it is not to say Kreider/Hags - Step - MSL doesn't work.
Just that a speedier C works better.

If as we hope Hayes signs with us, that would be a chance for both a beast and a speed line. miller is not most ideal, but he is closest to ideal of what we have in terms of combo size/speed.

Continuing to press the envelope for guys like Ryan Johansson, Marcus Johansson, and Helm from Detroit are options to be considered based on cost.

 

[Mikos87]

What's a bit troubling (at least to me) is that in order to accommodate cap beyond next year I don't see a scenario where the Rangers would not a step back in some important position (1C - 3C, top 4D) or the overall depth.

A very likely scenario that depends on how the tv money gets incorporated. The nhlpa didn't include the tv dollars this year. If they did the cap would have gone to 71M instead of 69M. Had a lot to do with the escrow payments.

Next year it will very well likely be in the 73-75 range with increased revenues (year over year of 5% bumb) plus the tv deal.

The rangers would be wise to early extend Staal and Step to save money on the cap going up. Hagelin will command a nice deal next time. The rangers need to lock down their assists before the cap goes up and guys want more money.

There was no way Brassard would ask for 5m if the cap was at 64M. But there is a very good chance that Staal and Step ask for 6 if the cap looks like it will hit 75.

Zucc will need a new deal in January too.

 

[SA16]

Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 2m
NYR sign Brassard to 5 yr, $25M deal