2014-15 Point Projection: Sidney Crosby

[66-30-33]

MSL isn't there feeding him pucks... I wouldn't be shocked to see him barely hit 50.

Not that those numbers are bad, but I really think we will see a drop in his goals. 60 is A LOT.

The guy is no longer the PP specialist he once was, he scores a ton of ES goals aswell. I think he can hit 60 still with that shot.

 

[ObsessedCreative*]

Was leaning towards 111-120 but stayed realistic.

I get the feeling that Geno will have a monster year and out score him though.

All while playing only 45 games!

 

[billybudd]

Said 90.

Think the Pens are going to have a slow start and that the NHL is going to hit bottom of the "dead puck era" scoring levels unless they change something.

Those 90 points still might win the Ross, by the way.

 

[Iffyiffiffer]

I'm not sure he'll last the first month after the Pens, refs, and league officials announced it's okay to pummel the guy.

 

[Wolf Without a Howl]

40 g 70 a

 

[orby]

I predict 110 points, give or take a few. Something like 35-40 goals, 70-75 assists. I have a feeling that he'll start slow-ish but once a legit top 6 winger replaces Dupuis on the first line (be it through trade, or bumping up Bennett, or whatever) he'll turn on the jets and break 110.

 

[PensPlz]

Pens will struggle coming out of the gate with intial injuries and system adjustments, and Crosby's point total will suffer because of it.

Main boards will have a field day with "Is Crosby done?", "Who's the new best player in the world?" posts and then an obligatory "Can Crosby come roaring back?"

I can see his year being similar to Giroux's last year (very slow start and strong finish) but just ending a lil' higher in the 90-95 range. Good enough for 3rd in the scoring race.

 

[mpp9]

Said 90.

Think the Pens are going to have a slow start and that the NHL is going to hit bottom of the "dead puck era" scoring levels unless they change something.

Those 90 points still might win the Ross, by the way.

We might not win as many games b/c we'll be sloppy at times adapting to a new system, but Sid will have an easier time producing points than he did last year. Replacing Orpik with Ehrhoff while he's on the ice is massive. Having an NHL caliber RW is as well. Plus, using Sutter properly will allow Sid to see some easier minutes throughout the season.

I also don't agree that league scoring has taken this drastic turn for the worse. There aren't any 100 pt scorers anymore b/c Ovy and the Sedins aren't what they used to be, and they were never replaced by the tier of players below Sid currently. Giroux, Getzlaf and Stamkos in their best seasons didn't break 100.

5.32 GPG in 11-12 vs 5.34 GPG in 13-14.

 

[WayneSid9987]

Don't forget that the Pens PP should be lethal this year.

 

[billybudd]

We might not win as many games b/c we'll be sloppy at times adapting to a new system, but Sid will have an easier time producing points than he did last year. Replacing Orpik with Ehrhoff while he's on the ice is massive. Having an NHL caliber RW is as well. Plus, using Sutter properly will allow Sid to see some easier minutes throughout the season.

I also don't agree that league scoring has taken this drastic turn for the worse. There aren't any 100 pt scorers anymore b/c Ovy and the Sedins aren't what they used to be, and they were never replaced by the tier of players below Sid currently. Giroux, Getzlaf and Stamkos in their best seasons didn't break 100.

5.32 GPG in 11-12 vs 5.34 GPG in 13-14.

Many of those goals, league-wide, came in the first half. Scoring tailed off as the season went on, I'd argue because the refereeing on interference has gotten laxer, probably because they found a correlation between relaxed interference and reduced concussions (if you've noticed, the department of player safety has stopped suspending people for boards and charges...that says to me they think they have an alternative way to reduce concussions). Preseason looks about the same to me as the end of last season and I've heard no talk from the NHL about an interference crackdown to increase scoring.

Plus, the NHL's a copycat league. Coaches see something that looks like it works and try to adapt it for themselves. In this case, Babcock just dominated a tournament playing a brand of hockey that gives up nothing the other direction. Teams can't duplicate that due to personnel, but they can try to mimick it. And they will.

Anyways, this is just a guess on my part.

 

[Penguinator]

111 pts, optimist yet realist (~if~ he plays 80 games...).

p.s. why can't i vote?

 

[Richard]

What saddens me is that we saw the best season of is career over 8 years ago. He had a chance, before his concussions, to hit 130 points and become an all-time legend. Now, while still the best, he isn't close to that productive level and will never be. Very sad.

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

Went with 101-110.

 

[eXile59]

With the KCD line I think we'll get the KCD line results. Maybe even a little worse with the age of Kunitz & Dupuis injury. If Horny gets a shot with him I can see him doing a little better maybe but overall there still will be no one to draw attention away from him.

 

[Ogrezilla]

What saddens me is that we saw the best season of is career over 8 years ago. He had a chance, before his concussions, to hit 130 points and become an all-time legend. Now, while still the best, he isn't close to that productive level and will never be. Very sad.

For him to produce as much as he did in his best season, he would need to be a FAR better player than he was then. It is much harder to score today than it was in his highest scoring season.

In 2006-2007 we had 463 powerplay opportunities and Crosby scored 61 of his points on the powerplay. 50.08% of his scoring came on the powerplay, scoring a point on 13.3% of our powerplay opportunities. He had 59 ES points.

In 2013-2014 we had 278 powerplay opportunities and Crosby scored 38 of his points on the powerplay. 36.5% of his scoring came on the powerplay, scoring a point on 13.7% of our powerplay opportunities. He had 66 ES points.

So his scoring has stayed pretty consistent actually, essentially just losing the powerplay points as he lost the powerplay opportunities. And he has gotten much better at the non-scoring parts of the game since then.

Note: In 2006-2007 he won the scoring title by 5%. In 2013-2014 he won the scoring title by 16%. So while his scoring has stayed roughly the same aside from the loss of powerplay opportunities, the rest of the league has seen scoring drop far more than Sid has.

TL;DR: I strongly disagree that Crosby's best season was the one with the highest point total.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

101-110. Anything more is wishful thinking, IMO, considering his winger situation and the fact the league doesn't call penalties like they should.

 

[Coach Travis]

EA Sports predicts Crosby having 52 goals and earning the Hart, Art, Rocket and Lindsay. Also predicts Boston vs Columbus in the ECF.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

101-110. Anything more is wishful thinking, IMO, considering his winger situation and the fact the league doesn't call penalties like they should.

He was on pace for 107 last year while having Gibbons on his line most of the year, playing a shutdown role, with an injured wrist, and Bylsma as coach. I don't think it's a stretch at all to say he'll get over 110.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

He was on pace for 107 last year while having Gibbons on his line most of the year, playing a shutdown role, with an injured wrist, and Bylsma as coach. I don't think it's a stretch at all to say he'll get over 110.

Who is the upgrade on the wing over Gibbons this year? Hornqvist is currently playing with him, but will that last once Geno is back? Crosby will be back to having Kunitz and a mystery winger on his RW again. Also, his wrist wasn't injured until late March. He played with that injury for maybe 10 or so games. It's not like he scored 104 points playing with a bum wrist for the entire season.

Plus, this "he was on pace" thing is a bit misleading because his actual total was 104. Missing games also count as a negative when it comes to projecting totals. If Sid is "on pace" for over 110 points, but finishes below it because he only plays 75 games this season (for example), then he did not score 110+ points, pace notwithstanding.

I just don't see him scoring greater than 110 points, not with his current linemates, the likelihood of missing a couple of games here and there, and with the league not calling many penalties. Sid's played 5 full seasons of 70+ games, recording 100 points those five seasons. And yet he's only surpassed 110 points one time, and that's when the NHL was dishing out powerplays like they were going out of style.

I'd love to eat crow, especially on this topic. But, IMO, anyone expecting more than 110 points is setting themselves up for disappointment.

 

[vodeni]

he is lucky if he gets 95 points. And the main reason is injuries. I just do not see him going through full season as he is getting older without missing a bunch of games. KCD is a recipe for disaster however DB is gone and that travesty will not drag for long time.

Its all about percentages, if he gets up in 12-15% he will get 40 goals, and he will reach at least 90 points if the PP starts clicking

 

[Fordy]

downie, bennett, spaling, comeau, hornqvist, kapanen?, sundqvist?

all guys that could see time on sid's rw, all upgrades over gibbons

even... ugh... dupuis

 

[FinProspects]

Is it KCD or KCH?

With KCH and Erhoff as a trigger man in PP, I´d say 110+ is a lock if Sid is healthy.

With KCD, 101-110.

 

[Scandale du Jour]

120.

Full offseason.
New system.
Better support.
Chip on his shoulder.
120 points.

 

[Get To Our Game]

I just want him to have a 'normal' year. No major injuries, no lockout, no Olympics.

 

[Greeneye]

Guessing 110 but I would not be surprised if he hit 120 again. I think he will thrive in this system and he should be playing with slightly better wingers.