My Top 10 (with my thoughts on their ceiling and where I think they likely top out... call it a realistic projection):
1. Chris Bigras - Clear cut #1 prospect in the system. Great skater, good puck mover, great defensively... needs to get stronger, more physical, and can be frustrating offensively (has more offensive talent than his numbers indicate). I don't think his ceiling is as high as a legit top pairing defender, but I hope to be proven wrong. Ceiling: fringe 2/3 defensemen that can look okay on top pairing with a true #1D. My 'realistic' projection: #3 defensemen that plays in all situations.
2. Conner Bleackley - Basically the #2 on this list by default. He is pretty safe to make the NHL in some sort of middle 6 forward role. Doesn't have some of the upside of others on this list (Hishon most notably), but is much easier to project. Ceiling: 2nd line RW My 'realistic' projection: Tweener 2nd/3rd line player that can play any forward position.
3. Stefan Elliott - Upside is the
only reason he is this high. If he ever puts it all together he will be one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL (dat wrist shot
). Big questions on whether he can do that. Ceiling: Offensive defensemen that can put up 50-60 points a season with ease. My 'realistic' projection: Tweener NHL/AHL offensive defensemen.
4. Joey Hishon - Finally had decently healthy season. Upside is still there, but injury concerns (even beyond concussions) will always be there. Ceiling: Top 6 forward. My 'realistic' projection: Career AHL top line player, may head to Europe in a couple years.
5. Troy Bourke - IMO more likely to carve out a career in the NHL than Hishon, but much less upside. I have concerns about how his body will hold up over time. Ceiling: Top 6 wing. My 'realistic' projection: Career AHL top line player, may head to Europe in a couple years.
6. Duncan Siemens - I have major concerns about how his puck skills will translate. IMO he will at least need some (not a lot) to be an effective top 4 shutdown D long-term. He is mean enough and can skate well enough to at least make it in a bottom pairing role. Ceiling: top 4 shut down defensemen. My 'realistic' projection: Bottom pairing shutdown defender that excels on the PK.
7. Mason Geertsen - I think it will be pretty close between Siemens and Geertsen in a few years. They are both big and mean shutdown defenders. While I don't think Geertsen's offensive abilities are that high, I think his offensive skills will translate better than Siemens' will. I think he has a breakout season next year. His skating will need to improve. Ceiling: top 4 shut down defensemen. My 'realistic' projection: Bottom pairing shutdown defender/AHL top pairing defender.
8. Kyle Wood - If he hadn't been injured in training camp, he really would have gone earlier in the draft. Because of his injury concerns he was probably picked a bit high this year (probably picked 1 or 2 rounds too early, but that doesn't really matter in the end). Could turn into an incredible value. IMO the slight concerns about his skating will go away as he continues to recover from the dislocated knee cap. Ceiling: 2-way middle pairing defender that is nasty to play against and has a decent amount of offensive upside. My 'realistic' projection: I can't place this yet... much too small of a sample size. Which is why he is low on here. Lots of risk with this pick.
9. Will Butcher - The promise is there to have a dynamic offensive skill set. Size and strength will remain a concern for a while. Ceiling: middle pairing offensive defensmen that can pile up points and run a PP. My 'realistic' projection: bottom pairing offensive defensemen, that may float between the NHL and AHL/Europe for a good portion of his career.
10. Sami Aittokallio - We all know the story on him. Upside, but some rather large holes in his game. Ceiling: solid NHL starting goalie, but not elite potential. My 'realistic' projection: backup goalie that always looks like he can handle more, but when given the chance won't live up to his potential. May flee back to Europe and have a very solid career there as a starter.
HM
Nick Magyar - Very close to making the top 10, should be a NHL player... limited upside
Colin Smith - Boom or bust to me, and much more likely to bust.
Alexis Pepin - Upside, but also boom or bust... and much more likely to bust
Calvin Pickard - I think he has a future as a backup goalie, but probably not with the Avs
Mitchell Heard - Not much upside, but a potential McLeod replacement on the 4th line. Solid face puncher and pest with some versatility.
I left out players like Will/Everberg/etc completely. Want to see what they can do on NA ice first.