Speculation: 2013 - Free-agent Discussion

UncleRisto

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I'd go after Filppula if he was available at about 4mil cause he can move to the middle come possible Stastny trade. More realistically maybe go after Stalberg.
 

Lonewolfe2015

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Would anyone be realistically against throwing some of our cap space at Jagr for the season? I can't believe the guy would turn down 5mil or something, which we have easily...

I think the team needs another role model like him, not a guy that's going to try and take over the team leadership-wise, but just compliment them with his presence. While I admit, Jagr isn't the best role model as a person, he is a great role model as a hockey player. Would round out our top 9 very well and be a trade deadline asset if we flop.

One can dream I guess. Cause that's not the Avs style anyways.
 

InjuredChoker

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I'd go after Filppula if he was available at about 4mil cause he can move to the middle come possible Stastny trade. More realistically maybe go after Stalberg.

Stalberg is much more realistic. Hawks probably won't re-sign him. Well, maybe. They probably use a buyout or two this offseason.

If Flip was available at 4 mil. was makes you think that he would come to Avs for that price? Many teams would be after him in that case.

And Red Wings would re-sign him 99% certainly if he'd take 4 mil. AAV, imo.
 

UncleRisto

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Jul 7, 2012
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Stalberg is much more realistic. Hawks probably won't re-sign him. Well, maybe. They probably use a buyout or two this offseason.

If Flip was available at 4 mil. was makes you think that he would come to Avs for that price? Many teams would be after him in that case.

And Red Wings would re-sign him 99% certainly if he'd take 4 mil. AAV, imo.

Nothing. 5mil then I think is too much. I was just thinking that he could take Stastny's place if he's traded. Anyways, Stalberg as said before having played with Duchene before should be targeted. He can't be that expensive.
 

Lonewolfe2015

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Everyone gets overpaid in free agency usually, add a mil to anyone's fair price and you get what they will likely sign with your team for. Stalberg at 3mil might be interesting, but at 4mil he can take a hike. Filpulla at 4mil is interesting, but at 5mil he can sign elsewhere.

Realistically, going after older veterans will be more cost effective this offseason because they are more interested in term than dollars. Streit for 3 years versus 2 for instance.
 

henchman21

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Feb 24, 2012
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Stalberg would be a great pickup for this team. It would really fill out the top 9, and he probably wouldn't cost more that 2-3 per season for 2-3 years. A contract that is movable if a cap crunch happens.

Stalberg-Duchene-PAP
Landy-ROR-Downie
McGinn-Stastny-Jones
McLeod-Mitchell/Malone-Bordy

That really looks like a solid forward group, and one that should fit under the cap in the future.
 

Colorado Avalanche

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I've said it several times, but RFAs next summer...

Matt Duchene: $3.5 M right now, probably goes to $7 M
Ryan O'Reilly: $5 M cap hit, but $6.5 M qualifying offer next summer
Semyon Varlamov: $2.83 M cap hit, probably goes to $5 M
Gabriel Landeskog: $3.575 M cap hit, but probably goes to $5 M
Jamie McGinn: $1.75 M right now, probably goes to $3-3.5 M
Tyson Barrie: $0.90 M hit, probably goes up to $1.75 M short-term
Stefan Elliott: $0.90 M hit, probably goes up to $1.50 M short-term

Who knows about Joey Hishon, and there's Olver as well.

For UFAs (not including Staz):

Steve Downie: $2.65 M right now, Sherman fav but been injured twice for us now, to keep him probably will cost $3.5 M or so
J-S Giguere: $1.5 M next season, he will probably retire/leave though

Then junk like Mitchell and the aforementioned Zanon/Hunwick.

What I'm saying is that the guys we need to dump are guys who's contracts may hurt us next summer when we want to re-sign our core pieces. I have no reason to believe we will spend anywhere close to the cap until ownership is convinced and sees a playoff team, therefore we have to spend wisely.

I don't expect much in free agency, either.

Those cap-hits will only happen, If everyone plays their best games. Most likely It won't happen(everyone plays their best), but Let's hope. No way Varlamov gets 5 million, unless he has amazing year.
 

InjuredChoker

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Dec 25, 2011
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Would anyone be realistically against throwing some of our cap space at Jagr for the season? I can't believe the guy would turn down 5mil or something, which we have easily...

I think the team needs another role model like him, not a guy that's going to try and take over the team leadership-wise, but just compliment them with his presence. While I admit, Jagr isn't the best role model as a person, he is a great role model as a hockey player. Would round out our top 9 very well and be a trade deadline asset if we flop.

One can dream I guess. Cause that's not the Avs style anyways.

I'd love Jagr.

But... seems very unAvs-like move to me.
 

R S

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Sep 18, 2006
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I agree with the people wanting Stalberg, that would be a good signing to make our depth that much better.

Me too.

He's versatile, can play on all 4 lines, play both PP and PK, and has top end speed...which we covet.

Would love to sign him.
 

RoyIsALegend

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??? - Duchene - Parenteau
Landeskog - O'Reilly - Downie
McGinn - Stastny - Jones

I don't think finding a winger for Dutch/PAP should be too difficult. We'd like an elite scorer there, but not entirely necessary if we plan on rolling 3 'scoring' lines.

My fear is that question mark is... John Mitchell.
 

CobraAcesS

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Me too.

He's versatile, can play on all 4 lines, play both PP and PK, and has top end speed...which we covet.

Would love to sign him.

He's only averaging 14:05 TOI this year, playing with Bickle and Shaw, it makes you wonder if he couldn't put up a few more points seeing something like 16-17 on a regular basis.

I'd say the defense is more important though, I'd choose these guys in order of priority.

Streit, Scuderi, Horton, and Stalberg

I say Horton before Stalberg, because if we keep Stastny we need to bring in someone to fill the role Jones was suppose to fill, and Jones failure makes us weak on the right side in top 9 talent.

Lets just drop a bomb on/buyout/trade Zannon, Jones, Hunwick (Just to make sure Sacco can't play him next to EJ anymore.), and trade Wilson before people notice that he has too many injury problems. Then we can sign ALL THE FREE-AGENTS!!

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Viktor Stalberg ($3.000m) / Matt Duchene ($3.500m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.650m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.750m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / Nathan Horton ($5.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / John Mitchell ($1.100m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($0.525m)
Mark Olver ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($4.000m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.500m) / Seth Jones ($3.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($2.833m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Greg Zanon ($0.000m)
Traded: David Jones
Traded: Matt Hunwick
Traded: Ryan Wilson
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,683,333; BONUSES: $2,710,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,326,667

Unfortunately the likeliness of this happening is about .01%, but it looks good on paper.
 
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Pierce Hawthorne

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We wont sign Horton. His concussion issues will certainly be huge red flag for this organization.

Plus, given that he is arguably the top free agent this summer, he could very well get upwards of 6M this summer.

He's not worth 5.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

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He's only averaging 14:05 TOI this year, playing with Bickle and Shaw, it makes you wonder if he couldn't put up a few more points seeing something like 16-17 on a regular basis.

I'd say the defense is more important though, I'd choose these guys in order of priority.

Streit, Scuderi, Horton, and Stalberg

I say Horton before Stalberg, because if we keep Stastny we need to bring in someone to fill the role Jones was suppose to fill, and Jones failure makes us weak on the right side in top 9 talent.

Lets just drop a bomb on/buyout/trade Zannon, Jones, Hunwick (Just to make sure Sacco can't play him next to EJ anymore.), and trade Wilson before people notice that he has too many injury problems. Then we can sign ALL THE FREE-AGENTS!!

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Viktor Stalberg ($3.000m) / Matt Duchene ($3.500m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($3.575m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.000m) / Steve Downie ($2.650m)
Jamie McGinn ($1.750m) / Paul Stastny ($6.600m) / Nathan Horton ($5.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / John Mitchell ($1.100m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($0.525m)
Mark Olver ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($4.000m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.500m) / Seth Jones ($3.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie ($0.900m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($2.833m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.500m)
OTHER
Buyout: Greg Zanon ($0.000m)
Traded: David Jones
Traded: Matt Hunwick
Traded: Ryan Wilson
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $63,683,333; BONUSES: $2,710,000
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $3,326,667

Unfortunately the likeliness of this happening is about .01%, but it looks good on paper.

If we signed all 4 of Scuderi, Streit, Stalberg, and Horton you could pretty much say good bye to Stastny, and Oreilly and probably Downie.


With all the free agents we have next summer, we cant spend much money this summer.

Maybe 1 Top 6 Winger, and 1 Top 4 Dman, even then they would have to come on fairly nice contracts.
 

Ivan13

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May 3, 2011
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??? - Duchene - Parenteau
Landeskog - O'Reilly - Downie
McGinn - Stastny - Jones

I don't think finding a winger for Dutch/PAP should be too difficult. We'd like an elite scorer there, but not entirely necessary if we plan on rolling 3 'scoring' lines.

My fear is that question mark is... John Mitchell.

Likewise, I fear his hot start played tricks with the minds of our FO.

On another not whoever signs Horton to a multi year deal will regret it down the road, his brain is mush from all the headshots he's taken in the last couple of years, plus I think he won't be as good outside Boston since he won't be able to goon it up and then hide behind Chara, Lučić, Thornton or McQuaid.
 

CobraAcesS

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If we signed all 4 of Scuderi, Streit, Stalberg, and Horton you could pretty much say good bye to Stastny, and Oreilly and probably Downie.


With all the free agents we have next summer, we cant spend much money this summer.

Maybe 1 Top 6 Winger, and 1 Top 4 Dman, even then they would have to come on fairly nice contracts.

The only problem I see is finding a way to move Jones, everyone else could be traded, and Zannon with 1 season left isn't an unrealistic buyout. The Salary cap won't be the issue, I just showed that.

Streit would probably require 3 years, Scuderi 2 years, and Horton is worth 5M. I would guess you haven't watched Horton play much this year if you say hes not worth 5M. The concussion stuff is a legit concern, as is him being a top free-agent.

But as others have said, there will be more teams needing to shed salary than teams able to take it on. So free-agents might not get as overpaid as usual this year.

Likewise, I fear his hot start played tricks with the minds of our FO.

On another not whoever signs Horton to a multi year deal will regret it down the road, his brain is mush from all the headshots he's taken in the last couple of years, plus I think he won't be as good outside Boston since he won't be able to goon it up and then hide behind Chara, Lučić, Thornton or McQuaid.

The last thing I'd say Horton needs to do is hide, he fights, and has been fighting this year as well. With that said he hasn't had any injury issues this year even with his physical style.

It's not like we don't have other tough players, McLeod, Bordy, McGinn, Downie, O'Brien, and Landeskog all fight as well.
 
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henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
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Horton is simply too expensive to try to sign and then deal with the cap issues we will have for 14-15. A forward under 3m and a 4-5m defensemen is the absolute max the Avs should try to do right now. Even those are somewhat questionable.
 

CobraAcesS

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Horton is simply too expensive to try to sign and then deal with the cap issues we will have for 14-15. A forward under 3m and a 4-5m defensemen is the absolute max the Avs should try to do right now. Even those are somewhat questionable.

What cap issues for 14-15?

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Viktor Stalberg ($3.000m) / Matt Duchene ($6.000m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($5.000m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.000m) / Steve Downie ($3.000m)
Jamie McGinn ($3.000m) / Paul Stastny ($5.500m) / Nathan Horton ($5.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / John Mitchell ($1.100m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($0.525m)
Mark Olver ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($4.000m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.500m) / Seth Jones ($3.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie ($1.500m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($3.500m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,375,000; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $625,000

This is fairly close IMO, that's with all the free-agent signings. Which I don't believe will really happen, but to say it's not feasible is wrong IMO.

(There would be about 2.5M in wiggle room because of S. Jones's bonus cushion.)
 

Avs71

Registered User
Aug 12, 2008
8,958
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Downie will probably want closer to 3.5-4.

It's also risky assuming Stastny will take a pay cut, and O'Reilly will accept something significantly less than his Q.O. If Varly has a better year with a better team in front of him, he could also be looking at 4.5 million.

Worst comes to worse, I guess you could shed Hejda/O'Brien for 5.25 million, but that may be extremely difficult. I guess it is doable, but it is certainly risky and could blow up in the Avs face.
 

Ivan13

Not posting anymore
May 3, 2011
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Zagreb, Croatia
The only problem I see is finding a way to move Jones, everyone else could be traded, and Zannon with 1 season left isn't an unrealistic buyout. The Salary cap won't be the issue, I just showed that.

Streit would probably require 3 years, Scuderi 2 years, and Horton is worth 5M. I would guess you haven't watched Horton play much this year if you say hes not worth 5M. The concussion stuff is a legit concern, as is him being a top free-agent.

But as others have said, there will be more teams needing to shed salary than teams able to take it on. So free-agents might not get as overpaid as usual this year.



The last thing I'd say Horton needs to do is hide, he fights, and has been fighting this year as well. With that said he hasn't had any injury issues this year even with his physical style.

It's not like we don't have other tough players, McLeod, Bordy, McGinn, Downie, O'Brien, and Landeskog all fight as well.

He picks his spots and Colorado doesn't have the wolf pack mentality Boston has. He's not worth the money he's going to get.
 

henchman21

Mr. Meeseeks
Feb 24, 2012
63,506
48,209
What cap issues for 14-15?

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Viktor Stalberg ($3.000m) / Matt Duchene ($6.000m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($5.000m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.000m) / Steve Downie ($3.000m)
Jamie McGinn ($3.000m) / Paul Stastny ($5.500m) / Nathan Horton ($5.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / John Mitchell ($1.100m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($0.525m)
Mark Olver ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($4.000m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.500m) / Seth Jones ($3.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie ($1.500m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($3.500m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,375,000; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $625,000

This is fairly close IMO, that's with all the free-agent signings. Which I don't believe will really happen, but to say it's not feasible is wrong IMO.

(There would be about 2.5M in wiggle room because of S. Jones's bonus cushion.)

A lot of assumptions there...

70m cap - possible but probably closer to 66-68

Difference in salary that are easily possible:
Downie for $3m - 3.5
ROR for $5m - 6-6.5
Stastny for 5.5 - 6-6.5
Varly for 3.5 -4-4.5
Duchene for 6 - 7-7.5

Those alone are $5.5m cap hit differences, combine that with a 2-4m less cap room and you have a team that needs to shed ~$7-9m in salary.
 

Bubba Thudd

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Jul 19, 2005
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Downie will probably want closer to 3.5-4.

It's also risky assuming Stastny will take a pay cut, and O'Reilly will accept something significantly less than his Q.O. If Varly has a better year with a better team in front of him, he could also be looking at 4.5 million.

Worst comes to worse, I guess you could shed Hejda/O'Brien for 5.25 million, but that may be extremely difficult. I guess it is doable, but it is certainly risky and could blow up in the Avs face.

Downie doesn't have much of an argument for a big raise. He needs to play to get paid.
 

Pierce Hawthorne

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Apr 29, 2012
45,350
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What cap issues for 14-15?

CAPGEEK.COM USER GENERATED ROSTER
My Custom Lineup
FORWARDS
Viktor Stalberg ($3.000m) / Matt Duchene ($6.000m) / P-A Parenteau ($4.000m)
Gabriel Landeskog ($5.000m) / Ryan O'Reilly ($5.000m) / Steve Downie ($3.000m)
Jamie McGinn ($3.000m) / Paul Stastny ($5.500m) / Nathan Horton ($5.000m)
Cody McLeod ($1.150m) / John Mitchell ($1.100m) / Patrick Bordeleau ($0.525m)
Mark Olver ($0.600m) /
DEFENSEMEN
Mark Streit ($4.000m) / Erik Johnson ($3.750m)
Rob Scuderi ($3.500m) / Seth Jones ($3.500m)
Jan Hejda ($3.250m) / Tyson Barrie ($1.500m)
Shane O'Brien ($2.000m) /
GOALTENDERS
Semyon Varlamov ($3.500m)
Jean-Sebastien Giguere ($1.500m)
------
CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)
(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)
SALARY CAP: $70,000,000; CAP PAYROLL: $69,375,000; BONUSES: $0
CAP SPACE (22-man roster): $625,000

This is fairly close IMO, that's with all the free-agent signings. Which I don't believe will really happen, but to say it's not feasible is wrong IMO.

(There would be about 2.5M in wiggle room because of S. Jones's bonus cushion.)

First of all the salary cap is highly unlikely to jump back up to 70M again that quickly. It might hit 66.5-67M, but 70 is unlikely.

Secondly, with Duchene's level of play right now, if he puts up say 75-80 points next year he's going to ask for at least 6.5M.

Streit is reportedly seeking a 3 year 16.5M contract from the Islanders, so any team in free agency he would likely want at least that.

Horton will want 6M if he becomes a UFA. Downie and/or McGinn could very well ask for similar contracts to Jones. Especially if Ginner puts up another 20-25 goal season next year.


Most of the guys you listed are being underpaid by as much as 1.5M. Your thinking to much about next year without taking into account future years.

Its just not possible for us to sign all of that talent without losing valuable pieces next year. Just like how its likely impossible for us to move Zanon or Hunwick this offseason. Were stuck with those 2 until there contracts run out.
 

CobraAcesS

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First of all the salary cap is highly unlikely to jump back up to 70M again that quickly. It might hit 66.5-67M, but 70 is unlikely.

Secondly, with Duchene's level of play right now, if he puts up say 75-80 points next year he's going to ask for at least 6.5M.

Streit is reportedly seeking a 3 year 16.5M contract from the Islanders, so any team in free agency he would likely want at least that.

Horton will want 6M if he becomes a UFA. Downie and/or McGinn could very well ask for similar contracts to Jones. Especially if Ginner puts up another 20-25 goal season next year. Obviously Horton isn't a need if we draft Mackinnon, but maybe he still is if we draft Mack and trade Stastny. The defensive guys only become even more of a need if we don't draft Jones however. So any forward group projected out two years is going to be questionable regardless until at least after the draft.


Most of the guys you listed are being underpaid by as much as 1.5M. Your thinking to much about next year without taking into account future years.

Its just not possible for us to sign all of that talent without losing valuable pieces next year. Just like how its likely impossible for us to move Zanon or Hunwick this offseason. Were stuck with those 2 until there contracts run out.

The two biggest risks I see are O'Reilly and Varlamov, obviously if Stastny won't take some sort of paycut and O'Reilly wants 6M (Hes not getting 6.5M a year on a long term deal IMO) then Stastny will be moved out which clears even more cap space.

So there are a lot of IFs, but there is room for error there when you take into account the Stastny + O'Reilly or Stastny VS O'Reilly situation. I highly doubt they keep both unless both of them take 5.5 or less. This is obviously an example of a scenario where we keep both, you'd need to redo the picture if one of them are moved. So take it for the scenario that it depicts.

Duchene will sign for less of an average cap hit than people think IMO, but no one can be sure at this point. I still believe he'll get a contract almost identical to Tavares.

Obviously before these guys (Free-agents) are signed management would have a pretty good idea what the situation with our centers will be, as long as they attempt to talk extension anyways.

We'd probably have to layout three or four different Cap/Roster scenarios to be honest. Keep both Stastny & O'Reilly, trade one, then also one for each likely player we draft as well.
 
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