McDNicks17
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DousedInOil said:
DOUSEDINOIL'S 6TH ANNUAL DRAFT RANKINGS
A quick message
Hey Everyone! This is going to be a much shorter read then in previous years despite it being my favorite draft in a long time. I want to apologize for the delay in this years rankings and the lack of content. I actually completed most of my player profiles back in May but unfortunately lost them due to computer problems. I love doing this in my spare time but simply don't have the time to redo all of the profiles that I had previously done. I am not a professional scout and have real life obligations that take priority. Believe it or not, but I usually put 100's of hours of work in this and it's impossible to recreate on such short notice. If you have any questions about the rankings or a particular player, please feel free to ask and I will do my best to answer your questions. Once again, I apologize and promise to try that much harder next year.
Draft Overview
I can't believe that it has already been an entire year since the 2012 NHL Draft in Pittsburgh. I hope that this draft guide lives up to expectations this year! This guide is just something that I like to do for myself to educate myself on the 50 best prospects eligible for the draft. I'm not here to convince anyone that a certain player is better than another prospect. Please feel free to come up with your own opinions and challenge your fellow board members to get the conversation going! I like to think of this as more of a compilation of information that will bring posters that don't have a chance to watch minor hockey a better understanding of this years top prospects. This is a hell of a draft year, so lets get started with an overview.
With the NHL lockout this year, the standings are significantly different then last year. Several teams that were in the playoffs last year are now drafting in the top 10, while the same is true for teams that have been stuck in the basement. Lets take a look at the Montreal Canadiens for example. Montreal selected Alex Galchenyuk 3rd overall last year and finished at the top of their division. It will be interesting to see where teams view themselves and how it will reflect their draft decisions. Will they remain patient because of one good/bad season or decide that they have finally turned the corner. The Edmonton Oilers are hoping that they fall in the latter but does that mean that they will move their pick come June 30th?
I'm really excited for this draft due to the high end talent and the depth of the 1st and second rounds. This is easily the best draft we have seen in a long time. I would compare the top of this draft to 2006 with the resemblances being uncanny. It is likely that a defenceman will go first overall while numerous franchise changing centers selected right after. However, that is where the comparison to 2006 ends. The rest of the first and second round have drawn comparisons to the infamous 2003 draft. I could see potential first line players or top pairing defencemen drafted late in the first round. The second round will also help separate this draft from years previous. Most years, I can slide some prospects into my top 50 that are "long shots" into making the NHL because of the lack of quality prospects. However, in 2013 I've had problems just trying to keep several can't miss prospects outside my top 50. Although it is unlikely that it will have the same impact as 2003, this is the closest a draft has come to matching the 2003 pedigree. The 2013 draft is full of interesting prospects and high scoring forwards.
How then, how does this draft breakdown? Well, it appears that their is a general consensus that the first player in this years draft is Seth Jones. That is where my first black line starts separating players. If a team is already stacked on defense, a guy like Nathan MacKinnon or Jonathan Drouin could potentially go first overall. Having said that, I think a team would be very unwise to pass on a generational talent like Seth Jones . After Jones, my next thick black line comes after the top 8. Aleksander Barkov, Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan, Darnell Nurse and Valeri Nichushkin have really separated themselves from the rest of the draft. In previous years, they would all be locks for the top 5. You could argue that a few other prospects sort of round out the top 10-12 prospects. After that, I think their is another group of players of guys that will go between 12 and 25. These are players that I would normally say are "top 10" players in their draft year. Frederic Gauthier, Curtis Lazar, Bo Horvat, etc. are all deserving of this title. These are guys that aren't as complete/polished as the other players mentioned but could turn out to be the best player in the draft.. After that, I have several players from 25-35 range could go inside the top 20 if a team liked that player enough. That leads me to my next and final thick black line- around 50. These are all players that I believe could be taken in the first round.
Scouting Philosophy & Disclaimers
1. Comparisons: I'm not a huge fan of comparing players for two reasons. One, each player styles their game after a bunch of other different players. Just because a guy models his game after someone, doesn't mean that he is a carbon copy. Still, it gives the average fan a very broad look of what style of player you are looking at. If a player is being compared to Scott Niedermayer, it doesn't mean he will be the next Niedermayer. It just means that they play a similar style. Secondly, just because something is similar between players, doesn't mean that everything is similar between players. If I were to compare Matt Dumba to PK Subban, it is only limited to his style of game. It doesn't mean that he has character issues like Subban does.
2. Projections: I tend to focus on how good a player is projected to be in a few years time rather than how good they are right now. I would rather draft a player that has shown proven in their development rather than a player that has peaked physically and won't be able to translate their game to the NHL level. Although this might seem like a simple point, it one that is often overlooked. Scouts tend to fall in love with those gritty players that have size and toughness but lack NHL skill. If I think two players are similar, I take the player that has better offensive instincts. A player can learn defense a lot easier than they can learn offense. Not that its easy to learn defense but I would rather have a guy that I have to control rather than a kid I have to motivate. If a player is pegged as a third line checker, he would have to have very little risk in his game to be considered above a guy who is projected to be a top 6 scorer.
3. Understanding Fallacies: One major fallacy that scouts have is basing their decisions on prior drafts and rankings. They say something like "Nikita Filatov was drafted 6th overall and didn't pan out. Theirs no way I take a Russian in the top 10" yet other highly touted Russian have been taken inside the top like like Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Ilya Kovalchuck. On the flip side, lots of non-russian players have busted. Yes, Russians can go back to Russia but saying they are a bust because they are Russian is just simply not true.
4. Best Player Available: I always found this to be a term that people use in false dilemmas. They try and polarize BPA from need. Rather, team dynamics, depth charts systems, mentors, etc all play important parts of a kids development. Some players play better under different situations. Now clearly, you don't pass on a guy you feel is on a completely different level. I would be furious if we passed on Evgeni Malkin for Cam Barker. Clearly Malkin is the better player. Having said that, I think its unfair to compare Grigorenko with Malkin and Murray with Barker. Murray doesn't have the character issues that Barker has and Grigorenko isn't as good as Malkin. Teams have been drafting much more on need as of late but shouldn't do so when guys start to fall of the gap is significant. Obviously everyone's perception of gaps is different so BPA seems to be somewhat subjective.
5. Playoffs: One of the biggest mistakes scouts make is the emphasis on playoffs. I'm not saying that they aren't a good measuring stick but they aren't the be all end all. The fact is many players are taken high in their draft year to teams that are at the bottom of the league. I mean look at Edmonton, we have a ton of talent that hasn't made the playoffs. Would you take Zack Kassian over Taylor Hall because he is going to the playoffs? Obviously not. Also, the sample size of playoff games for most teams is incredibly small. What if that player just doesn't match up well against the other team? I think scouts are often late to the show for some players (fail to watch them all year) and their basis is entirely on playoff production.
2012: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=915727
2011: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=915727
2010: http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=780117
Rank|Player|TSN|CSS|THN|ISS|CB|RR|FC|MK|LW|HP|POS|SH|HT|WT|DOB|CURRENT TEAM
01 | Seth Jones |02|1NA|01|02|01|X|01|01|03|X| D | R | 6.04 | 208 | Oct 3, 1994 | Portland (WHL)
02 | Nate MacKinnon |01|2NA|03|01|03|X|02|02|02|X| C | R | 6.00 | 182 | Sep 1, 1995 | Halifax (QMJHL)
03 | Jonathan Drouin |03|3NA|02|03|02|X|03|03|01|X| LW | L | 5.10 | 182 | Mar 27, 1995 | Halifax (QMJHL)
04 | Aleksander Barkov |04|1EU|06|05|04|X|04|05|04|X| C | L | 6.03 | 207 | Sep 2, 1995 | Tappara (FIN)
05 | Elias Lindholm |05|3EU|04|07|09|X|06|04|05|X| C | R | 6.00 | 181 | Dec 2, 1994 | Brynas (SWE)
06 | Sean Monahan |07|5NA|07|09|06|X|08|11|06|X| C | L | 6.03 | 193 | Oct 12, 1994 | Ottawa (OHL)
07 | Valeri Nichushkin |06|2EU|05|04|05|X|05|06|08|X| RW | L | 6.04 | 191 | Mar 4, 1995 | Chelyabinsk (RUS)
08 | Darnell Nurse |09|4NA|08|06|08|X|07|08|10|X| D | L | 6.04 | 194 | Feb 4, 1995 | Sault Ste Marie (OHL)
09 | Rasmus Ristolainen |08|4EU|22|11|25|X|12|21|09|X| D | R | 6.04 | 196 | Oct 27, 1994 | TPS Turku (FIN)
10 | Nikita Zadorov |11|22NA|14|08|11|X|11|07|12|X| D | L | 6.03 | 205 | Apr 15, 1995 | London (OHL)
11 | Ryan Pulock |23|12NA|10|14|30|X|14|15|07|X| D | R | 6.01 | 201 | Oct 6, 1994 | Brandon (WHL)
12 | Hunter Shinkaruk |14|6NA|23|13|14|X|09|22|11|X| LW | L | 5.11 | 175 | Oct 13, 1994 | Medicine Hat (WHL)
13 | Bo Horvat |13|15NA|16|10|19|X|23|14|19|X| C | L | 6.00 | 198 | Apr 5, 1995 | London (OHL)
14 | Frederic Gauthier |22|8NA|30|18|21|X|16|23|21|X| C | L | 6.05 | 210 | Apr 26, 1995 | Rimouski (QMJHL)
15 | Curtis Lazar |18|20NA|09|12|32|X|17|12|20|X| C | R | 6.00 | 189 | Feb 2, 1995 | Edmonton (WHL)
16 | Anthony Mantha |15|10NA|24|24|16|X|18|24|14|X| LW | L | 6.04 | 200 | Sep 16, 1994 | Val D-or (QMJHL)
17 | Max Domi |10|19NA|15|25|10|X|10|09|13|X| C | L | 5.10 | 192 | Mar 2, 1995 | London (OHL)
18 | Josh Morrissey |28|27NA|19|21|15|X|15|18|15|X| D | L | 6.00 | 184 | Mar 28, 1995 | Prince Albert (WHL)
19 | Alex Wennberg |12|5EU|11|15|12|X|13|13|18|X| LW | L | 6.00 | 173 | Sep 22, 1994 | Djurgardens (SWE)
20 | Valentin Zykov |25|7NA|31|19|37|X|19|32|28|X| RW | R | 6.01 | 214 | May 15, 1995 | Baie Comeau (QMJHL)
21 | Adam Erne |20|26NA|13|X|20|X|28|20|16|X| RW | L | 6.00 | 206 | Apr 20, 1995 | Quebec (QMJHL)
22 | Kerby Rychel |21|17NA|21|20|27|X|26|25|22|X| LW | L | 6.01 | 200 | Oct 7, 1994 | Windsor (OHL)
23 | Ryan Hartman |26|16NA|28|X|26|X|22|36|26|X| RW | R | 5.11 | 187 | Sep 20, 1994 | Plymouth (OHL)
24 | Shea Theodore |44|11NA|46|X|47|X|20|49|33|X| D | L | 6.01 | 170 | Aug 3, 1995 | Seattle (WHL)
25 | Mirco Mueller |16|9NA|18|X|40|X|X|17|31|X| D | L | 6.03 | 185 | Mar 21, 1995 | Everett (WHL)
26 | Robert Hagg |27|8EU|12|X|48|X|24|19|23|X| D | L | 6.02 | 204 | Feb 8, 1995 | Modo (SWE)
27 | Madison Bowey |36|32NA|44|22|24|X|X|35|29|X| D | R | 6.01 | 194 | Apr 22, 1995 | Kelowna (WHL)
28 | Samuel Morin |17|23NA|20|X|13|X|X|10|36|X| D | L | 6.07 | 200 | Jul 12, 1995 | Rimouski (QMJHL)
29 | JT Compher |35|34NA|41|26|34|X|29|56|17|X| C | R | 5.11 | 184 | Apr 8, 1995 | USNDT (USHL)
30 | Andre Burakovsky |24|6EU|17|16|58|X|25|16|25|X| RW | L | 6.01 | 176 | Feb 9, 1995 | Malmo (SWE)
31 | Mike McCarron |34|35NA|27|23|NA|X|X|33|X|X| RW | R | 6.05 | 227 | Mar 7, 1995 | USNDT (USHL)
32 | Jason Dickinson |31|30NA|35|X|28|X|X|34|38|X| LW | L | 6.01 | 165 | Jul 4, 1995 | Guelph (OHL)
33 | Dillon Heatherington |47|31NA|45|27|39|X|X|44|51|X| D | L | 6.02 | 185 | May 9, 1995 | Swift Current (WHL)
34 | Steve Santini |42|47NA|65|17|31|X|X|41|39|X| D | R | 6.02 | 207 | Mar 7, 1995 | USNDT (USHL)
35 | Ian McCoshen |39|24NA|26|28|38|X|X|29|37|X| D | L | 6.02 | 210 | Aug 5, 1995 | Waterloo (USHL)
36 | Justin Bailey |45|38NA|34|X|51|X|X|40|41|X| RW | R | 6.04 | 182 | Jul 1, 1995 | Kitchener (OHL)
37 | Chris Bigras |32|14NA|33|30|35|X|X|27|40|X| D | L | 6.00 | 189 | Feb 22, 1995 | Owen Sound (OHL)
38 | Nic Petan |33|33NA|42|29|17|X|27|46|27|X| C | L | 5.09 | 165 | Mar 22, 1995 | Portland (WHL)
39 | Morgan Klimchuk |30|25NA|38|X|18|X|21|42|32|X| C | L | 5.11 | 180 | Mar 2, 1995 | Regina (WHL)
40 | Tristan Jarry |40|3NA|68|2G|50|X|X|65|X|X| G | L | 6.01 | 175 | Apr 29, 1995 | Edmonton (WHL)
41 | Thomas Vannelli |48|44NA|37|X|NA|X|X|30|X|X| D | R | 6.02 | 165 | Jan 26, 1995 | Minnetonka (High-MN)
42 | Jacob De la Rose |29|7EU|29|X|57|X|X|31|34|X| C | L | 6.02 | 183 | May 20, 1995 | Leksands (SWE)
43 | Laurent Dauphin |38|28NA|66|X|22|X|X|37|43|X| C | L | 6.00 | 166 | Mar 26, 1995 | Chicoutimi (QMJHL)
44 | Oliver Bjorkstrand |52|36NA|53|X|55|X|X|48|49|X| LW | R | 5.11 | 164 | Apr 10, 1995 | Portland (WHL)
45 | Zachary Fucale |19|1NA|25|1G|07|X|X|28|24|X| G | L | 6.00 | 166 | May 28, 1995 | Halifax (QMJHL)
46 | Artturi Lehkonen |43|9EU|36|X|23|X|X|39|30|X| RW | L | 5.10 | 163 | Jul 4, 1995 | Kalpa (FIN)
47 | Connor Hurley |57|45NA|48|X|44|X|30|50|50|X| C | L | 6.01 | 174 | Sep 15, 1995 | Edina High (High-MN)
48 | Zach Nastasiuk |51|13NA|39|X|46|X|X|51|X|X| RW | R | 6.02 | 191 | Mar 30, 1995 | Owen Sound (OHL)
49 | William Carrier |50|18NA|51|X|NA|X|X|54|45|X| LW | L | 6.00 | 205 | Dec 20, 1994 | Cape Breton (QMJHL)
50 | Ryan Kujawinski |HM|63NA|69|X|75|X|X|73|X|X| C | L | 6.02 | 202 | Mar 30, 1995 | Kingston (OHL)
*Rankings will be added as they are released. Updated heights and weights will also be changed once the official information is given. If you have any rankings that would like to be added or have purchased a guide with the complete rankings, please PM me and I will add them.
Mock Draft
Rank|Team|Player
1|Colorado Avalanche|Seth Jones|
2|Florida Panthers|Nathan MacKinnon|
3|Tampa Bay Lightning|Jonathan Drouin
4|Nashville Predators|Aleksander Barkov|
5|Carolina Hurricanes|Valeri Nichushkin|
6|Calgary Flames|Elias Lindholm|
7|Edmonton Oilers|Sean Monahan|
8|Buffalo Sabres|Rasmus Ristolainen|
9|New Jersey Devils |Nikita Zadorov|
10|Dallas Stars|Hunter Shinkaruk|
11|Philadelphia Flyers|Darnell Nurse|
12|Phoenix Coyotes|Bo Horvat|
13|Winnipeg Jets|Max Domi|
14|Columbus Blue Jackets|Frederik Gauthier|
15|New York Islanders|Ryan Pulock|
16|Buffalo Sabres|Adam Erne|
17|Detroit Red Wings|Curtis Lazar|
18|Ottawa Senators|Alexander Wennberg|
19|Columbus Blue Jackets|Anthony Mantha|
20|San Jose Sharks|Ryan Hartman|
21|Toronto Maple Leafs|Kerby Rychel|
22|Washington Capitals|Joshua Morrissey|
23|Columbus Blue Jackets|Mirco Mueller|
24|Vancouver Canucks|Andre Burakowsky|
25|Calgary Flames|Samuel Morin|
26|Dallas Stars |Madison Bowey|
27|Montreal Canadiens |Valentin Zykov|
28|Anaheim Ducks |JT Compher|
29|Calgary Flames|Zach Fucale|
30|Chicago Blackhawks|Nic Petan|
31|Florida Panthers|Shea Theodore|
32|Colorado Avalanche|Jason Dickinson|
33|Tampa Bay Lightning|Robert Hagg|
34|Montreal Canadiens|Morgan Klimchuk|
35|Carolina Hurricanes|Justin Bailey|
36|Montreal Canadiens|Ian McCoshen|
37|Edmonton Oilers|Mike McCarron|
I included McKeens.
Last edited by a moderator:
Oops. Didn't see his thread.
