2013-14 Mid-Season Prospect Poll: #4

[MagnumForce2]

I guess I spoke too soon

 

[DazedandConfused]

Ullmark, add Kea. Probably shouldve chose between Armea and ;arson but Im drunk so to the future tendy of your Buffalo Sabres.

 

[Zman5778]

The problem with the runoff is with the glut of prospects we have bunched up together, there's a good chance that several runoffs will be required as we fill out the list. What happens when in the next poll votes are split amongst 4-5 different players?

Excellent point.

Yeah, let's not do a runoff unless it's a direct tie.

Otherwise, this might take us forever at points.

 

[OcAirlines]

Yeah, I'd say no run-offs unless there is a tie at a certain cut-off point that Woohouse has set for himself.

 

[enthusiast]

What happens is we do it. It's not like we're in a rush. I'll volunteer to handle the runoffs between the top-2 if nobody tops %33.3 assuming people want it but don't want to do the work.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Any poll with less then a 5% margin of victory shall be resolved via the epic rap battle

Or we could just acknowledge that given the voters, varied criteria, and personal bias that go into these polls that they will always be inherently inaccurate and being overly concerned with who grabs which votes will just unnecessarily bog down the progression of the mid season prospect polls, Larsson/Armia go into next round with nearly a 30% lead and will probably be able to surf that lead to 5th best prospect

 

[Sabre the Win]

What happens is we do it. It's not like we're in a rush. I'll volunteer to handle the runoffs between the top-2 if nobody tops %33.3 assuming people want it but don't want to do the work.

You will still have a delay between the Prospect Polls because one of those names will have to be put back into the next poll. No matter how you slice it its gonna slow everything down.

 

[enthusiast]

Not if the loser of the runoff takes the next spot. The same day-length vote with a majority decision instead of two pluralities.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

What happens is we do it. It's not like we're in a rush. I'll volunteer to handle the runoffs between the top-2 if nobody tops %33.3 assuming people want it but don't want to do the work.

If you wanted to invest time in something, starting a thread dedicated to finding a consensus system of rating prospects that board members could use in these polls, that would be cool, would probably contribute to a more accurate rating if we all had the same checklist to work off of then worrying about where a couple dozen votes land in the race for 4/5th best prospect

 

[enthusiast]

If you wanted to invest time in something, starting a thread dedicated to finding a consensus system of rating prospects that board members could use in these polls, that would be cool, would probably contribute to a more accurate rating if we all had the same checklist to work off of then worrying about where a couple dozen votes land in the race for 4/5th best prospect

How do you mean? A ranking aggregator rather than a vote?

 

[Sabre the Win]

Not if the loser of the runoff takes the next spot. The same day-length vote with a majority decision instead of two pluralities.

Yeah but not everyone who voted Armia is gonna vote Larsson next round and not everyone who voted Larsson is gonna vote Armia next round. What if Compher gets the majority next?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Not if the loser of the runoff takes the next spot. The same day-length vote with a majority decision instead of two pluralities.

This or nothing, these things drag on forever as it is, unless people believe that the majority of one camp wouldn't vote for the other in the next round, are 20 people gonna jump from 1 to Compher/Mc cabe? Seams unlikely

And if we do a run off and the player with less popular votes wins I'm demanding a recount from our southern voters, they seam old and unreliable

 

[Sabre the Win]

This or nothing, these things drag on forever as it is, unless people believe that the majority of one camp wouldn't vote for the other in the next round, are 20 people gonna jump from 1 to Compher/Mc cabe? Seams unlikely

And if we do a run off and the player with less popular votes wins I'm demanding a recount from our southern voters, they seam old and unreliable

I for one wouldn't, I don't have Armia in my top 5, he is sitting at 6.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

How do you mean? A ranking aggregator rather than a vote?

No just a simple checklist, Jame asked the question how people rank the prospects and like 6 people had systems. How many people have really thought about it? We have a prospect repository where stats and videos are linked, how about some kind of out of 100pnts check list for ranking prospects. Right now some people claim it's impossible to predict players in the future so it's only how they're playing now that should matter, while other people say it's all about where they project to peak, and others are in the middle. If we really are concerned about how accurate these polls are, to the point we are discussing run offs, maybe a thread dedicated to evaluating prospect rankings would be interesting, spend the rest of the season on it and then maybe the mods could pull together a weighted point list. Then when someone goes "why you no vote Grigs!?" You could say "because while on potential I gave him a 5/5 on probability of success he only got 2/5" and everyone could look at the list and go ok I see where he's coming from.

Basically I think it would encourage discussion if we all had the same grading system we could debate and it would give us something other then which Sam we should draft to talk about. Just spit balling, it's 2am and I just wrote a 28 page lab report on the Franck Hertz experiment, I'm a little fried.

Of course compiling everyone's list together would only be a matter of adding everyone's points * by the weight of the stat / number of voters, BCS polling for sabres prospects

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I for one wouldn't, I don't have Armia in my top 5, he is sitting at 6.

I voted Armia and I'd go Larsson next but The gap between Armia and Larsson is bigger than my gap between Larsson and Compher at 6, granted I've always been a big Michigan fan so it's a little biased

 

[enthusiast]

Yeah but not everyone who voted Armia is gonna vote Larsson next round and not everyone who voted Larsson is gonna vote Armia next round. What if Compher gets the majority next?

It's not best, just better.

 

[enthusiast]

No just a simple checklist, Jame asked the question how people rank the prospects and like 6 people had systems. How many people have really thought about it? We have a prospect repository where stats and videos are linked, how about some kind of out of 100pnts check list for ranking prospects. Right now some people claim it's impossible to predict players in the future so only how they're. Playing now should matter, while other people say it's all about where the project to peak, and others are in the middle. If we really are concerned about how accurate these polls are, to the point we are discussing run offs, maybe a thread dedicated to evaluating prospect rankings would be interesting, spend the rest of the season on it and then maybe the mods could pull together a weighted point list. Then when someone goes "why you no vote Grigs!?" You could say because "because while on potential I gave him a 5/5 on probability of success he only got 2/5" and everyone could look at the list and go ok I see where he's coming from.

Basically I think it would encourage discussion if we all had the same grading system we could debate and it would give us something other then which Sam we should draft to talk about. Just spit balling, it's 2am and I just wrote a 28 page lab report on the Franck Hertz experiment, I'm a little fried.

Let's work something like this out this summer?

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Let's work something like this out this summer?

Would be a fun project IMO, I'd be interested

 

[Aapo]

I wonder how that transitions to the NHL D:

I was pretty surprised that Grigorenko so easily made the Top-3. I voted Compher both for #3 and now, but it very close for me. Wouldn't have expect to see Larsson winning though, I just don't believe that his offensive play will transition to the NHL. But obviously this is just my personal opinion, I had Compher and McCabe over both Larsson and Armia.

I can’t really understand all the disbelief in Larssons performance and ability to produce at the NHL level. What is it Armia has shown that you don’t see in Larsson? His pedigree is outstanding: He has been selected captained of his national team (at 18 and 20 years old), was selected top player of the team in the WJC, won the rookie of the year in the SEL, etc.

His strong and direct play style should IMO be very “transitionable” to the NHL and he had less trouble with the transition to his first AHL season than most swedes do. I would be more worried if he was a dangler that needed big ice surface… But here we have a two-way player with good skills and extreme work ethic whose progress shows no sign of declining.

Maybe it was his stable defensive play and people comparing him to Sammy Pahlsson, which started the notion of him being just a defensive center. But in fact, Sammy was nowhere near Larssons point production in his younger years.

I see both Larsssons’ and Armias’ ceiling as being very good 2nd liners, but I have Larsson much closer to accomplish this, while also being a C.

 

[dotcommunism]

I can’t really understand all the disbelief in Larssons performance and ability to produce at the NHL level.

Well the issue is due to Larsson actually having a shot at playing in the NHL and during that time his game hasn't translated into any sort of offensive production. That's of course not to say that it won't, but so far it hasn't. I think that's the main point being made.

 

[OcAirlines]

I can’t really understand all the disbelief in Larssons performance and ability to produce at the NHL level. What is it Armia has shown that you don’t see in Larsson? His pedigree is outstanding: He has been selected captained of his national team (at 18 and 20 years old), was selected top player of the team in the WJC, won the rookie of the year in the SEL, etc.

His strong and direct play style should IMO be very “transitionable†to the NHL and he had less trouble with the transition to his first AHL season than most swedes do. I would be more worried if he was a dangler that needed big ice surface… But here we have a two-way player with good skills and extreme work ethic whose progress shows no sign of declining.

Maybe it was his stable defensive play and people comparing him to Sammy Pahlsson, which started the notion of him being just a defensive center. But in fact, Sammy was nowhere near Larssons point production in his younger years.

I see both Larsssons’ and Armias’ ceiling as being very good 2nd liners, but I have Larsson much closer to accomplish this, while also being a C.

I don't have Armia over Larsson, it is Compher I have in this spot. I still really like Larsson as a prospect but I see him as a good 3rd liner down the road, while the others have the potential to be more. And while I can still se Larsson as a decent offensive performer, consider this: In his entire career, juniors included, he never had more than 15 goals in a season. He will always get points through his hard work and by being a good complimentary player, but he doesn't have as much pure skill as many others. And while you can overcome a lot of that through hard work, it still leads me to believe that he will have a tough time scoring on the best Defenders in the world.

 

[Aapo]

Well the issue is due to Larsson actually having a shot at playing in the NHL and during that time his game hasn't translated into any sort of offensive production. That's of course not to say that it won't, but so far it hasn't. I think that's the main point being made.

I agree that is dissapointing. But I would like to see him get another shot, now that his confidence seems to have grown in the AHL, before I start to doubt that he can contiunue his progression in the NHL.

 

[Reddawg]

I really feel like Larsson has overtaken Armia at this point, and voted that way.

Add Bailey

 

[jBuds]

Grigo
Zads
Risto
Larsson
McCabe
Armia

Top six

Compher
Ullmark

Would be the two at 7-8

 

[Aapo]

I don't have Armia over Larsson, it is Compher I have in this spot. I still really like Larsson as a prospect but I see him as a good 3rd liner down the road, while the others have the potential to be more. And while I can still se Larsson as a decent offensive performer, consider this: In his entire career, juniors included, he never had more than 15 goals in a season. He will always get points through his hard work and by being a good complimentary player, but he doesn't have as much pure skill as many others. And while you can overcome a lot of that through hard work, it still leads me to believe that he will have a tough time scoring on the best Defenders in the world.

Still, Larsson played against men at 13-15 years of age (and 2-4 years older players when 16 years old). If you look at Compher or Armia, they don't reach much higher in later years. Allthough I'd agree Larsson has been a more inconsistent goal scorer in international turnaments.

Edit: In fact, when reading his career statistics, it seems he has never played a season with his own age group, as he entered the SEL at 18 yo...