2012 NHL re-draft: Gostisbehere first overall?

[Appleyard]

Even strength point per game would be a better measure
Rielly plays a fair amount of minutes so his per/60 might not be as good if he's defending a lot
Or am I thinking of the stats wrong but
Of riellys 30 points this year 24 I believe we're at ev

The stats for 5v5 P/60 (ie 'proper' EV... believe me... when comparing to Ghost 5v5 as opposed to ALL EV (4v4 & 3v3 included) is fairer!):

Ghost: 1.29 (4th in NHL amongst D (Karlsson, Brodie, Burns ahead)
Rielly: 0.77 (70th in the NHL amongst D)

And if you are referring to my last post those stats are all 5v5 too.

 

[seafoam]

He'll probably have a sophomore slump. i.e. too early to tell

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

The stats for 5v5 P/60 (ie 'proper' EV... believe me... when comparing to Ghost 5v5 as opposed to ALL EV (4v4 & 3v3 included) is fairer!):

Ghost: 1.29 (4th in NHL amongst D (Karlsson, Brodie, Burns ahead)
Rielly: 0.77 (70th in the NHL amongst D)

And if you are referring to my last post those stats are all 5v5 too.

I know they are all ev but points per 60 mins is misleading
Because one player has to defend a lot more
So out of 60 mins rielly is ofc going to have a low number but if you look at just ev points per game it paints a better picture

24 ev points over 70 games
Vs
17 ev over 51
=
0.342 vs 0.333

It's a much more fair way at looking at it rielly is playing 23 mins a game vs 19:39 plus the 20% more o zone starts so points/per 60 is not as indicative as just even strength points in general over there respective games

 

[TheKingPin]

I know they are all ev but points per 60 mins is misleading
Because one player has to defend a lot more
So out of 60 mins rielly is ofc going to have a low number but if you look at just ev points per game it paints a better picture

24 ev points over 70 games
Vs
17 ev over 51
=
0.342 vs 0.333

It's a much more fair way at looking at it rielly is playing 23 mins a game vs 19:39 plus the 20% more o zone starts so points/per 60 is not as indicative as just even strength points in general over there respective games

I would personally rather have ghost. I don't think this is a fluke year. He really has the it factor. Some people just hit in the NHL and he is one of those people.

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

I would personally rather have ghost. I don't think this is a fluke year. He really has the it factor. Some people just hit in the NHL and he is one of those people.

Fair enough I would just like to point out that there ev scoring is pretty similar

 

[Appleyard]

I know they are all ev but points per 60 mins is misleading
Because one player has to defend a lot more
So out of 60 mins rielly is ofc going to have a low number but if you look at just ev points per game it paints a better picture

24 ev points over 70 games
Vs
17 ev over 51
=
0.342 vs 0.333

It's a much more fair way at looking at it rielly is playing 23 mins a game vs 19:39 plus the 20% more o zone starts so points/per 60 is not as indicative as just even strength points in general over there respective games

Ignoring the bizarre statistical logic Ghost actually has 19 EV points. So 0.373 EVP/G.

So how come those guys who play similar minutes to Rielly are producing as much or more per minute then, eh? Would they all be considered as good as Ghost too offensively at 5v5? They are doing just as well offensively at 5v5 as him WITH less or similar OZ starts over their respective games.

And yep... fair to consider that Rielly has played over 500 more minutes of hockey at 5v5 this season...

Gostisbehere has 2 less goals than Rielly in his NHL career... he has played 173 games less.

Gostisbehere has almost double Rielly's PPG this season...

Yet they are similar offensively.

 

[FLYguy3911]

When I watched Ryan Murray and McDavid going head to head every other shift I saw a very entertaining competition, while I can't recall that I've ever seen Ghost and McDavid (or any other oposition top-player) on the ice at the same time for extended periods of time. I suppose that would have been a very favorable for the Oilers match-up. So no, he won't have gone 1st overall now, not even top-10, his defense still has long ways to go. I think he gonna end up somewhere in Nick Leddy's category.

I went to my first game of the season a couple weeks ago and let's just say I enjoyed seeing Ryan Murray on the ice for 20 minutes that night. Didn't even play against Giroux all that much either.

Not gonna waist my time on silly kids here.

Trying to picture it...

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Ignoring the bizarre statistical logic Ghost actually has 19 EV points. So 0.373 EVP/G.

So how come those guys who play similar minutes to Rielly are producing as much or more per minute then, eh? Would they all be considered as good as Ghost too offensively at 5v5? They are doing just as well offensively at 5v5 as him WITH less or similar OZ starts over their respective games.

And yep... fair to consider that Rielly has played over 500 more minutes of hockey at 5v5 this season...

Gostisbehere has 2 less goals than Rielly in his NHL career... he has played 173 games less.

Gostisbehere has almost double Rielly's PPG this season...

Yet they are similar offensively.

My bad with the stat I'm on my phone its hard to get numbers right sometimes I wasn't trying to sway it one way or the other
At the end of the day rielly has a negative partner in hunwick
And the leafs can't score pretty sure no player in the nhl has a harder situation playing 1D with the worst or one of the worst offenses with one of the worst partners, no player is going to crack 50 points or 25 goals on the leafs and we are dead last or like bottom 3 in offense, ur underestimating riellys QoT (quality of team mates). So at 5v5 offense I still think they're close.

 

[Appleyard]

My bad with the stat I'm on my phone its hard to get numbers right sometimes I wasn't trying to sway it one way or the other
At the end of the day rielly has a negative partner in hunwick
And the leafs can't score pretty sure no player in the nhl has a harder situation playing 1D with the worst or one of the worst offenses with one of the worst partners, no player is going to crack 50 points or 25 goals on the leafs and we are dead last or like bottom 3 in offense, ur underestimating riellys QoT (quality of team mates). So at 5v5 offense I still think they're close.

Manning has been Ghosts most regular partner... he is far worse than Hunwick objectively.

With Manning Ghost is at 46% Corsi... without 52%... his Corsi for/60 takes a hit going from over 60 to ~50 when he has to play with that AHL 2nd pairing Dman. Which is ridiculous... but understandable if you have to watch Manning struggle to play in the NHL night in, night out.

When with Manning the Flyers are getting 1.79 GF/60 with Ghost on ice... when Ghost is away from him the Flyers are getting 3.24 GF/60 with Ghost on ice.

Gostisbehere Corsi QoT: 49.79.
Gostisbehere TOI QoC: 16.57
Rielly Corsi QoT: 49.78
Rielly TOI QoC: 16.91

Ghost does play with better forwards ofc most often... but he has also had to play with the Flyers 4th line quite a bit (2nd most in terms of lines he is out with)... who suck.

Hence partially why his numbers are dragged down in terms of QoT... he is playing with an awful partner most often, and while he is with great forwards most often, after them he plays with offensive black holes of forwards.

The three average 0.79 P/60 at 5v5... Froese is the only Leafs forward this year with more than 10 games played who has less than 0.79 P/60... yet our 4th line averaged have that!


Buffalo score less per game than Toronto at 5v5, Ristolainen plays tougher minutes... yet marginally outproduces Rielly at 5v5. He is pacing for 45 points. His QoT is far, far worse to boot. He has a harder situation and is putting up more offensively, albeit not by much at 5v5. I guess Ristolainen would be the best offensive defenseman in the NHL then...

 

[Albus Dumbledore]

Manning has been Ghosts most regular partner... he is far worse than Hunwick objectively.

With Manning Ghost is at 46% Corsi... without 52%... his Corsi for/60 takes a hit going from over 60 to ~50 when he has to play with that AHL 2nd pairing Dman. Which is ridiculous... but understandable if you have to watch Manning struggle to play in the NHL night in, night out.

When with Manning the Flyers are getting 1.79 GF/60 with Ghost on ice... when Ghost is away from him the Flyers are getting 3.24 GF/60 with Ghost on ice.

Gostisbehere Corsi QoT: 49.79.
Gostisbehere TOI QoC: 16.57
Rielly Corsi QoT: 49.78
Rielly TOI QoC: 16.91

Ghost does play with better forwards ofc most often... but he has also had to play with the Flyers 4th line quite a bit (2nd most in terms of lines he is out with)... who suck.

Hence partially why his numbers are dragged down in terms of QoT... he is playing with an awful partner most often, and while he is with great forwards most often, after them he plays with offensive black holes of forwards.

The three average 0.79 P/60 at 5v5... Froese is the only Leafs forward this year with more than 10 games played who has less than 0.79 P/60... yet our 4th line averaged have that!


Buffalo score less per game than Toronto at 5v5, Ristolainen plays tougher minutes... yet marginally outproduces Rielly at 5v5. He is pacing for 45 points. His QoT is far, far worse to boot. He has a harder situation and is putting up more offensively, albeit not by much at 5v5. I guess Ristolainen would be the best offensive defenseman in the NHL then...

Idk why your taking things out of context
Just saying riellys situation is god awful and apprently ristos is even worse. Why's it so hard to believe that Rielly is comparable 5v5 scorer there ev points per game is similar ... you have to realize that the 20% more starts in the O zone is a massive gap
Like absolutely huge and the much worse situation to play in
Rielly plays a few mins per game more but babs really uses him to shut down other players a lot.

 

[zar]

No love for the 3rd best ppg of this draft class, Charles Hudon at .666 ppg

For me the Top 5 are:
Lindholm
Reilly
Galchenyuk
Forsberg
Gostisbehere

Ghost's primary skill is offense. I remember a few tears ago when the Oilers thought they had a very special offensively gifted rookie Dman, who was very highly coveted by every single NHL team... we just traded him for a 3rd round pick and were very, very pleased to get that return. Just sayin'.

 

[1865]

No love for the 3rd best ppg of this draft class, Charles Hudon at .666 ppg

For me the Top 5 are:
Lindholm
Reilly
Galchenyuk
Forsberg
Gostisbehere

Ghost's primary skill is offense. I remember a few tears ago when the Oilers thought they had a very special offensively gifted rookie Dman, who was very highly coveted by every single NHL team... we just traded him for a 3rd round pick and were very, very pleased to get that return. Just sayin'.

Schultz hasn't even sniffed a tenth of the success Ghost has actually already had.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Manning has been Ghosts most regular partner... he is far worse than Hunwick objectively.

With Manning Ghost is at 46% Corsi... without 52%... his Corsi for/60 takes a hit going from over 60 to ~50 when he has to play with that AHL 2nd pairing Dman. Which is ridiculous... but understandable if you have to watch Manning struggle to play in the NHL night in, night out.

When with Manning the Flyers are getting 1.79 GF/60 with Ghost on ice... when Ghost is away from him the Flyers are getting 3.24 GF/60 with Ghost on ice.

Gostisbehere Corsi QoT: 49.79.
Gostisbehere TOI QoC: 16.57
Rielly Corsi QoT: 49.78
Rielly TOI QoC: 16.91

Ghost does play with better forwards ofc most often... but he has also had to play with the Flyers 4th line quite a bit (2nd most in terms of lines he is out with)... who suck.

Hence partially why his numbers are dragged down in terms of QoT... he is playing with an awful partner most often, and while he is with great forwards most often, after them he plays with offensive black holes of forwards.

The three average 0.79 P/60 at 5v5... Froese is the only Leafs forward this year with more than 10 games played who has less than 0.79 P/60... yet our 4th line averaged have that!

Buffalo score less per game than Toronto at 5v5, Ristolainen plays tougher minutes... yet marginally outproduces Rielly at 5v5. He is pacing for 45 points. His QoT is far, far worse to boot. He has a harder situation and is putting up more offensively, albeit not by much at 5v5. I guess Ristolainen would be the best offensive defenseman in the NHL then...

I'm not picking sides here, in fact I think Ghost is showcasing an offense that you are just hoping for from Rielly, but I do think there's a clear difference in opportunity.

Philly has done a great job putting Ghost in a position to succeed. Rielly has been asked to focus on improving his weak defense to make him more of a two-way D-man, and it's been very noticeable on the ice. I also don't think Corsi QoT is a fair measurement of the offensive support that Rielly gets. Toronto has been a decent possession team, but they reach that by working incredibly hard and disciplined. That's also the main way we create any kind of offense, while creative plays from our high skill players like Rielly, Kadri and Nylander become sparks that gets snuffed out by the void of talent on the team.

But there's a huge difference between doing and having the potential to do. Just like to point that out, that I'm not equating the two at all.

 

[BillDineen]

I agree that 2011 should be the draft to discuss, not 2012.

 

[wuf]

If we're talking 2011, he would have been taken as the highest pick in terms of defenders; the class is pretty lacking.
But in terms of overall bpa there's Landy, Kucherov, Couturier, Huberdeau, Scheifele, and Saad that I would pick higher and that's not going over it with a fine tooth comb.

Edit: Wow sorry, Gaudreau, Palat probably as well

 

[Appleyard]

Idk why your taking things out of context
Just saying riellys situation is god awful and apprently ristos is even worse. Why's it so hard to believe that Rielly is comparable 5v5 scorer there ev points per game is similar ... you have to realize that the 20% more starts in the O zone is a massive gap
Like absolutely huge and the much worse situation to play in
Rielly plays a few mins per game more but babs really uses him to shut down other players a lot.

I just find it crazy people are really contending Rielly is as good as Ghost offensively in any phase of the game...

We are talking about a player with the 4th best 5v5 P/60 at his position in the NHL...


It would be like Flyers fans claiming Couturier is a 75 point centre actually and would be if he played easily minutes since he puts up 0.51 EVP/game and is not used much on the PP... and plays harder minutes than Rielly relative to his position!



And if we are talking context ~30% (7/24) of Rielly's 'EV' points have came in 'non EV' situations... 6 on 5, delayed penalties, pulled goalies etc. Where he has a 26% on ice shooting %... now that may say he is actually a better PP player than his stats may indicate at base value, or the best 'niche NHL situations' player in the league... but it is not really EV play is it?

 

[LeafFever]

I just find it crazy people are really contending Rielly is as good as Ghost offensively in any phase of the game...

We are talking about a player with the 4th best 5v5 P/60 at his position in the NHL...


It would be like Flyers fans claiming Couturier is a 75 point centre actually and would be if he played easily minutes since he puts up 0.51 EVP/game and is not used much on the PP... and plays harder minutes than Rielly relative to his position!



And if we are talking context ~30% (7/24) of Rielly's 'EV' points have came in 'non EV' situations... 6 on 5, delayed penalties, pulled goalies etc. Where he has a 26% on ice shooting %... now that may say he is actually a better PP player than his stats may indicate at base value, or the best 'niche NHL situations' player in the league... but it is not really EV play is it?

You've been shown statistics which displays he clearly is.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Yes he is the best player from that draft right now. But it is still very wide open.

 

[JWEKD]

If we have to wait for Toronto to have a better team to TRULY see if Rielly's offense equates to Gostistbehere's, I dont think we'll ever know.

 

[rhinoshawarma]

Lol cmon now, 1 season and he's better than all those guys? Remember Myers winning the calder, would you take him 1st overall?

 

[WarriorofTime]

Lol cmon now, 1 season and he's better than all those guys? Remember Myers winning the calder, would you take him 1st overall?

Well it's not exactly a field where many guys have really stepped up. One of the weaker drafts in recent memory. But it's still early so that can change.

 

[BHD]

I'd pick Forsberg first in a redo but Gostisbehere would go top-15 easily, maybe top-10. I'd revisit this in ~5 years.

Yeah, 50 games is a bit early.

 

[Appleyard]

You've been shown statistics which displays he clearly is.

Ghost: 4th in NHL in 5v5 P/60 (1.29)
Rielly: 70th in NHL in 5v5 P/60 (0.77)

(400+ minutes, 203 Dmen have played 400+)

Ghost: 12th in NHL in PPP/60 (5.78)
Rielly: 54th in NHL in PPP/60 (3.27)

(100+ minutes, 70 Dmen have played 100+)




Ghost: 1st in NHL in P/60 (2.33)

 

[rhinoshawarma]

Well it's not exactly a field where many guys have really stepped up. One of the weaker drafts in recent memory. But it's still early so that can change.

Still, you have players who have been playing the last 2-3 seasons and showed good numbers, progression and such. Like Forsberg, last year and this year clearly are ahead of ghost in my book, or Galchenyuk who is finally playing at centre and showing what he can do leading his team in goals, or Lindholm who is getting closer to the 1D tag.

50games cannot surpass these guys. Revisit this in 2 years

 

[WarriorofTime]

Still, you have players who have been playing the last 2-3 seasons and showed good numbers, progression and such. Like Forsberg, last year and this year clearly are ahead of ghost in my book, or Galchenyuk who is finally playing at centre and showing what he can do leading his team in goals, or Lindholm who is getting closer to the 1D tag.

50games cannot surpass these guys. Revisit this in 2 years

Yeah I mean those guys are just guys who have good potential. They haven't really done much to make it crazy that a rookie could be considered ahead of them. It's wide open right now who is the number 1 player from that draft. So I agree with re-visiting. Having to rank someone number 1 right now is splitting hairs. It'll get sorted out in the next 2-3 years. Right now, nobody has done anything to really stand out and I would say Ghost is definitely the most impressive this season and to do date based on what anyone has done in the NHL. Besides raw games, nobody has accomplished more than he has in the NHL in my opinion.