GDT: #2| Carolina Hurricanes @ New York Islanders| October 11th 7:00 PM | F/W 4-3

[BroadwayJay*]

yup, exactly my point. our eyes trick us, and we miss things, but if we could have an objective, never-lacking view of the game we'd basically all just be confirming corsi.

I misread you before. I apologize.

In my defense, your choice of language was confusing.

What you've written here is EXACTLY what I've been saying for a long time.

 

[rikker]

i don't think either eye-test or corsi is completely accurate, but i will say that i think corsi is much more accurate.

how the eye-test can result in completely opposite opinions, is surely an indicator of it's shortcomings. human bias is a very powerful force.

if i were employed in the industry, i would probably reference the corsi numbers, to whittle down possible options, then watch the videos.

but since i'm just some keyboard-pounding doofus, i will mostly watch for enjoyment, and argue with you fine fellows, that my reality, is the correct reality.

 

[scott99]

If I never hear the ****ing word corsi ever again, I'd be thrilled. Dumbest most useless stat ever.

A Corsi rating (or Corsi number) is an ice hockey statistic created by Jim Corsi. Similar to a plus/minus statistic, a Corsi rating measures the difference in shots directed at a players own net, versus shots directed at their opponent's net.

Holy **** that is so ingenious ! A stat based on shots on goal ! Wow, amazing ! Please note the sarcasm. This is as useless as most baseball stats. Batting average against righties on Friday nights in May.

 

[louie lighthouse]

Just back from the game, here are my observations/comments.

-Terrible job by team with pre-game.... no individual player introductions, the pre game video was lame, no ceremonial drop of the puck by somebody with a historical tie to the team, anthem performed by a no name.

Now to the game itself,

-The usual 3rd period pins & needles. The PK is not good, even the coach says that.

-Reinhart looks overmatched out there. On a couple of plays he looked like a traffic cone and the Canes went right around him. He needs to use his size and body to check and knock the opponent off the puck. Once deHaan or Viz comes back he needs to get some seasoning at BPT.

-Goaltending was nothing special. The 3rd goal was on Johnson in my opinion.

- I did like the way the 1st line (Tavares) and 3rd line (Nielsen) played tonight. The 2nd line (Nelson) was pretty much ineffective. While Boychuk has lived up to his billing, Leddy has not stood out (good or bad) in these 2 games

-Let's face it, the Canes are where we were the past couple of years.... A bigger test will be the next few games vs. NYR, SJ, TOR, PIT..... If they cannot get past the 3rd period scrambles quickly, it can become a long season.

Agree completely about Reinhart. He needs to be in Bridgeport. He is 1/2 step behind the play and will be exposed as the season goes on as NYI play the more elite teams in the league. This is not an insult to Griffin. It is just the truth. The smart thing NYI could do is to give him a year in Bridgeport and let him play 20+ minutes a game and develop.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

If I never hear the ****ing word corsi ever again, I'd be thrilled. Dumbest most useless stat ever.

A Corsi rating (or Corsi number) is an ice hockey statistic created by Jim Corsi. Similar to a plus/minus statistic, a Corsi rating measures the difference in shots directed at a players own net, versus shots directed at their opponent's net.

Holy **** that is so ingenious ! A stat based on shots on goal ! Wow, amazing ! Please note the sarcasm. This is as useless as most baseball stats. Batting average against righties on Friday nights in May.

The problem with batting average against righties on fridays in May is that the sample is so small as to provide no demonstrable value.

Corsi has a proven correlation with success.

To put it simply, to generate goals, you need scoring chances, to generate scoring chances, you need to generate shots, to generate shots, you need to generate shot attempts. We go to the baseline, shot attempts, and see how team shot attempts change depending on who is on the ice.

The idea is that we're trying to approximate possession, which is extremely valuable. This is hardly the place for this discussion, but if you'd like to learn more about it Scott I'm always willing to help teach people who we use it and what we get out of it.

It certainly has value, probably more than any other stat but points.

 

[rikker]

Agree completely about Reinhart. He needs to be in Bridgeport. He is 1/2 step behind the play and will be exposed as the season goes on as NYI play the more elite teams in the league. This is not an insult to Griffin. It is just the truth. The smart thing NYI could do is to give him a year in Bridgeport and let him play 20+ minutes a game and develop.

mixed feelings on him going down. i get the feeling that playing with Strait is hurting his game. not to say that he is doing great, just that he may play better, with a guy like deHAAN or Vis. he is also playing on the right side, and this may be causing him some difficulty. i know he's a lefty, but i don't know if he has experience on the right side.

there is a definite benefit to playing the AHL, but some people think that just practicing at the NHL level offers more benefit. i think each player responds differently to different situations, so it's hard to know what is the best path for him.

the problem with sending him down, is who's going to replace him? will they benefit the team much more? i am not sure that Donovan or Mayfield or Church are much better, unfortunately.

IMO, he is solid in front of our own net, and that is a big, big plus, for us.

 

[JetsMetsIsles]

mixed feelings on him going down. i get the feeling that playing with Strait is hurting his game. not to say that he is doing great, just that he may play better, with a guy like deHAAN or Vis. he is also playing on the right side, and this may be causing him some difficulty. i know he's a lefty, but i don't know if he has experience on the right side.

there is a definite benefit to playing the AHL, but some people think that just practicing at the NHL level offers more benefit. i think each player responds differently to different situations, so it's hard to know what is the best path for him.

the problem with sending him down, is who's going to replace him? will they benefit the team much more? i am not sure that Donovan or Mayfield or Church are much better, unfortunately.

IMO, he is solid in front of our own net, and that is a big, big plus, for us.

Well when DeHaan or Vis come back they will replace Reinhart and Strait. Looks like Strait will take the 7th Dman role and Griffin goes back to BP. Carkner is another hurt Dman who will be a healthy scratch.

 

[scott99]

The problem with batting average against righties on fridays in May is that the sample is so small as to provide no demonstrable value.

Corsi has a proven correlation with success.

To put it simply, to generate goals, you need scoring chances, to generate scoring chances, you need to generate shots, to generate shots, you need to generate shot attempts. We go to the baseline, shot attempts, and see how team shot attempts change depending on who is on the ice.

The idea is that we're trying to approximate possession, which is extremely valuable. This is hardly the place for this discussion, but if you'd like to learn more about it Scott I'm always willing to help teach people who we use it and what we get out of it.

It certainly has value, probably more than any other stat but points.

No thanks Jay, I think it's a ******** stat. You do realize that shots come in all shapes and sizes ? Some defenseman in his own zone, falling down shoots the puck in desperation, yet miraculously it goes all the way down ice on goal avoiding an icing, shot on goal. A forward or Dman can do everything right being back defending, but their own teammate can fall or make a bad defensive play, shot on goal. On offense, a team can do everything right, make some amazing plays, puck hits the crossbar or post on the shot, NO shot on goal. A team could have 35+ shots on goal, but the defense plays it right and keeps 90% of those shots on the outside, OMG we were outshot 35-21, but won 3-2. Go figure, there goes the players Corsi.

******** stat, so ridiculous. Watch the game, you'll learn more than you could by ******** statistics like +/- and corsi.

 

[airbus220]

Corsi has a proven correlation with success.

The idea is that we're trying to approximate possession, which is extremely valuable.

It certainly has value, probably more than any other stat but points.

Corsi are also Missed-Shots!
Everybody can imagine what kind of success that is.
It's not about winning.

 

[13th Floor]

No thanks Jay, I think it's a ******** stat. You do realize that shots come in all shapes and sizes ? Some defenseman in his own zone, falling down shoots the puck in desperation, yet miraculously it goes all the way down ice on goal avoiding an icing, shot on goal. A forward or Dman can do everything right being back defending, but their own teammate can fall or make a bad defensive play, shot on goal. On offense, a team can do everything right, make some amazing plays, puck hits the crossbar or post on the shot, NO shot on goal. A team could have 35+ shots on goal, but the defense plays it right and keeps 90% of those shots on the outside, OMG we were outshot 35-21, but won 3-2. Go figure, there goes the players Corsi.

******** stat, so ridiculous.

Over a long enough timeline, all of that noise approaches zero.

 

[WangMustGo]

Was at the game last night, great atmosphere, great game all around. The one thing that really stuck out at me was how good Bailey was defensively. He may not put up great offensive numbers, but if he gives that effort every night he will be a key player for us. He really helped us close out the game at the end of the third period.

 

[CaptDenisPotvin]

Well after the first game i said Bailey just wasnt gonna cut it and when Grabs came back he should go in the pressbox. After last night s game i will gladly eat my share of crow, his goal was good because he went to the right spot for an opportunity but i was more impressed with him taking the body and diving to try to make a play in the offensive zone. His defensive play was very good also. He looks like he knows this is a big year for him and hes putting it all on the line. I hope we get THIS Bailey for another 80 games.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

No thanks Jay, I think it's a ******** stat. You do realize that shots come in all shapes and sizes ? Some defenseman in his own zone, falling down shoots the puck in desperation, yet miraculously it goes all the way down ice on goal avoiding an icing, shot on goal. A forward or Dman can do everything right being back defending, but their own teammate can fall or make a bad defensive play, shot on goal. On offense, a team can do everything right, make some amazing plays, puck hits the crossbar or post on the shot, NO shot on goal. A team could have 35+ shots on goal, but the defense plays it right and keeps 90% of those shots on the outside, OMG we were outshot 35-21, but won 3-2. Go figure, there goes the players Corsi.

******** stat, so ridiculous. Watch the game, you'll learn more than you could by ******** statistics like +/- and corsi.

As a reminder, I watch all the games. I often REWATCH the games too. Watching the games is something you'll never have to worry about with me.

As far as "all shots not being equal", that's obviously correct. However, we're trying to approximate possession through shot attempts. I said that above.

Every event you described is covered as a shot attempt, so you can disregard that part of the argument as well.

Also, if you get outshot 35-21 but keep everything to the outside that's great I guess; but you were outpossessed and that is bad. The purpose of Corsi is to approximate possession, nothing more. It is simple and useful. You want the puck in the other end, Corsi tells us whether you are doing that.

 

[YearlyLottery]

No thanks Jay, I think it's a ******** stat. You do realize that shots come in all shapes and sizes ? Some defenseman in his own zone, falling down shoots the puck in desperation, yet miraculously it goes all the way down ice on goal avoiding an icing, shot on goal. A forward or Dman can do everything right being back defending, but their own teammate can fall or make a bad defensive play, shot on goal. On offense, a team can do everything right, make some amazing plays, puck hits the crossbar or post on the shot, NO shot on goal. A team could have 35+ shots on goal, but the defense plays it right and keeps 90% of those shots on the outside, OMG we were outshot 35-21, but won 3-2. Go figure, there goes the players Corsi.

******** stat, so ridiculous. Watch the game, you'll learn more than you could by ******** statistics like +/- and corsi.

Every stat needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

Remember Brad Boyes? Everybody hated him yet he put him solid stats. Corsi is just another way of backing up your point IMO.


* I'm not a defender of Corsi nor do I agree with it, just don't see the problem with advanced stats in general.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Corsi are also Missed-Shots!
Everybody can imagine what kind of success that is.
It's not about winning.

You don't need to imagine the success we're talking about. You saw it last year with the LA Kings, the year before with the Chicago Blackhawks, and the year before that with the Kings again, and the year before that with the Bruins. It is no accident that those great Corsi teams are also great teams in general.

Here is a classic article about it. You'll note the mention of Vic Ferrari in there. He was hired by the Washington Capitals a few days ago.

http://objectivenhl.blogspot.com/2011/03/loose-ends-part-i-predictive-validity.html

 

[WangMustGo]

Well after the first game i said Bailey just wasnt gonna cut it and when Grabs came back he should go in the pressbox. After last night s game i will gladly eat my share of crow, his goal was good because he went to the right spot for an opportunity but i was more impressed with him taking the body and diving to try to make a play in the offensive zone. His defensive play was very good also. He looks like he knows this is a big year for him and hes putting it all on the line. I hope we get THIS Bailey for another 80 games.

Agreed, he cannot get complacent. If he keeps giving this effort night in and night out he will get his fair share of minutes.

 

[stranger34]

I just have one question. Why cant this team play 60 minutes of hockey?

until we fire the coach I don't expect it.

 

[stranger34]

Staple suggested on twitter that Tavares didn't want to do individual introductions.

I'm glad. Johnny is old school. I can't stand all of the ceremonies, banner flyings, etc. This all strikes me as a post 1990's superficial self aggrandizing shift in our culture. The opening night Kings ceremony was beyond excessive.

It's hockey, not the WWE. Drop the puck and get on with it.

 

[TeamKidd]

dont we have a CORSI thread already guys?

Good game last night as Carolina came with more urgency. In my eyes its not that we cant play "60 minutes", its more that we get a bit frantic and sloppy in the 3rd. Seems like the upgrades on D and FWD might help us with that though as they mostly held firm. We move up in class next game, im interested to see how we raise our game. We need to get more offense 5 on 5 as i dont think we can expect the PP to continue at this pace.

As for Reinhart, yes he's a bit slow but his size and net presence have been HUGE in these games. Go back and look at how many potential dangerous plays and scoring chances he interfered with in front of the net these last 2 games. It's several, i'll tell you that. When DeHaan comes back he should be paired with Hickey and then if Vis comes back then maybe we have a decision to make, but there is no way i play strait over him.

 

[louie lighthouse]

mixed feelings on him going down. i get the feeling that playing with Strait is hurting his game. not to say that he is doing great, just that he may play better, with a guy like deHAAN or Vis. he is also playing on the right side, and this may be causing him some difficulty. i know he's a lefty, but i don't know if he has experience on the right side.

there is a definite benefit to playing the AHL, but some people think that just practicing at the NHL level offers more benefit. i think each player responds differently to different situations, so it's hard to know what is the best path for him.

the problem with sending him down, is who's going to replace him? will they benefit the team much more? i am not sure that Donovan or Mayfield or Church are much better, unfortunately.

IMO, he is solid in front of our own net, and that is a big, big plus, for us.

Excellent points. Perhaps Griffin would benefit from playing with a better D partner. Having said this, if Vis and DeHaan were healthy, I don't think Griffin plays for us and would benefit most from playing 20+ minutes at the Bridge. Now, say if DeHaan was healthy and Vis was still out, I could see sitting Strait and playing Griffin with DeHaan or maybe even Hamonic (left/right combo), or maybe even Hickey.

 

[boredmale]

Here is a classic article about it. You'll note the mention of Vic Ferrari in there. He was hired by the Washington Capitals a few days ago.

Wasn't Vic Ferrari a character on Taxi?

 

[Bones45]

Yes-- let's keep the Corsi talk in the Corsi thread and not in the GDT.

 

[BroadwayJay*]

Wasn't Vic Ferrari a character on Taxi?

Yes, and it is where he got his online name. His real name is Tim Barnes, I think.

 

[airbus220]

Over a long enough timeline, all of that noise approaches zero.

Do you really know what you are talking about???

Let me give you a hint and look at our former beloved Andrew MacDonald.
Last season he had for the Isles

198 Blocked Shots which are included in Corsi
60 Missed Shots which are also included in Corsi
72 Shots only on goal
and only 4 goals

Please tell me where this is noise and how it can become zero?
Less than 22% of his shot attemps were on goal.
Seems to me over 78% of his own Corsi was dirty and amount to ...

... Nothing


All of that noise approaches to zero, you said LOLOLOL

 

[The Underboss]

Staple suggested on twitter that Tavares didn't want to do individual introductions.

The whole story behind the whole team introduction:

http://www.newsday.com/sports/colum...768?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I liked the little bit of intro they showed in the broadcast. Also liked coming out as a TEAM and not an individual.

dont we have a CORSI thread already guys?

Good game last night as Carolina came with more urgency. In my eyes its not that we cant play "60 minutes", its more that we get a bit frantic and sloppy in the 3rd. Seems like the upgrades on D and FWD might help us with that though as they mostly held firm. We move up in class next game, im interested to see how we raise our game. We need to get more offense 5 on 5 as i dont think we can expect the PP to continue at this pace.

As for Reinhart, yes he's a bit slow but his size and net presence have been HUGE in these games. Go back and look at how many potential dangerous plays and scoring chances he interfered with in front of the net these last 2 games. It's several, i'll tell you that. When DeHaan comes back he should be paired with Hickey and then if Vis comes back then maybe we have a decision to make, but there is no way i play strait over him.

Yes we do and please keep that discussion in there and not clutter up the GDT about it.