GDT: 2/21/13 7PM Bowl of Oates: Gretzky's Mickey Mices vs. Adonis Leonsis' Frankfurters

[Ajax1995]

Is Ovy ever tickling the balls lately. So close...just finish already. He needs to stop rushing these glorious chances and look where he's shooting. But I love that he's getting these chances...break th damn already tho!!

Yeah he clearly is not playing with much confidence when it comes to actually putting the puck in the net. He had some amazing chances last night that he just failed to finish and he had a decent amount of other ones that he simply passed up.

Old Ovechkin would have had 4 last night...

 

[Ajax1995]

Bellows and Joe Murphy were the two I can think of that helped in the past, but after that they have been pretty sad.

Joe Murphy?!?!? If he is the benchmark for 'helping' than plenty of McPhee's low cost / low reward pickups have helped...

 

[g00n]

Then we can rinse & repeat in nine years after several disappointments! Fun!

Maybe if the same guy is repeating his same mistakes over and over and over again, which is what we're seeing.

GMGM's basically built the pre-firesale team again, because that's the culmination of his philosophies. He lucked into a Cup Finals team, and lucked into Ovechkin. And in both cases he neglected to stock a tough, solid defensive core, instead opting for old or inexperienced or soft d-men. He allowed the stars to run the team while the coach fell on his sword, and eventually ended up with a one-dimensional group of goldbrickers who can't play a full 60 minutes nevermind go deep in the playoffs, and who live and die by the power play/offensive skill and hot goaltending.

 

[LSnow]

Didn't get to see the game because of work, but did Ovetshkin play well ? Highlights give impression that he was flying. Hopefully he starts to get confidence again.

 

[brs03]

Didn't get to see the game because of work, but did Ovetshkin play well ? Highlights give impression that he was flying. Hopefully he starts to get confidence again.

He was abusing Tallinder (IINM) pretty regularly. Definitely flying. Shot wasn't where it needed to be, but the Caps were bad all night about not getting their shots on net so I don't know what all that was about.

 

[SlappaDaBass]

It was the best game I've seen Ovie play all season. He was flying all over the ice, making hits, and running break aways almost every time he was on the ice. He'll eventually find his stride with his goal scoring, he was really the only bright spot out of last night's game. I wish Backstrom wasn't such a lazy, slow ***** then we might see him do something for once.

 

[Roughing]

Again, I just can't see this happening. This team is as mentally soft as they come. Couple that with poor top six forward balance, thin D, poor overall depth and inexperienced goaltending and you get garbage.

Other than that though, you know, they're pretty solid.

 

[Hivemind]

Is his system basic or too ****ing complex for our simpleton players to understand? I thought the latter was one of the excuses similar to "THERE WAS A LOCKOUT, NO CAMPS, NEW COACH" etc etc etc. Because you know...new coaches need time to adjust, just ask Les Habitants.

It's not basic. BTCG is oversimplifying it, or straight up misreading it. There are a lot of reads that Oates is asking the players to make. You'll see at least three different forechecking looks depending on how cleanly the other team gains possession of the puck. The defensive scheme in particular depends on very good communication and reading the play (something that they aren't doing very well). The zone entries rely on overlapping routes and quick passing in order to isolate a single defender.

It's a complicated system. Especially compared to Dale's trap and collapse.

 

[BTCG]

It's not basic. BTCG is oversimplifying it, or straight up misreading it. There are a lot of reads that Oates is asking the players to make. You'll see at least three different forechecking looks depending on how cleanly the other team gains possession of the puck. The defensive scheme in particular depends on very good communication and reading the play (something that they aren't doing very well). The zone entries rely on overlapping routes and quick passing in order to isolate a single defender.

It's a complicated system. Especially compared to Dale's trap and collapse.

MS,

Of course, they try to do a few different things on the forecheck.

Same on the backcheck, and especially when AO is out there; they're trying to spring him quickly with some support, and you could see last night that it's starting to work.

As Locker pointed out last night, they're trying to use the neutral zone as a semi-staging area as well, and again, you could see improvement.

And yes... they recognize that the puck jumps around, and some players on some clubs can be exploited in certain ways.

But at its root, it's a system of area, and responsibility.

That's what you do when you have limited talent: you go to the basics.

 

[Calicaps]

Other than that though, you know, they're pretty solid.

 

[Calicaps]

Yeah he clearly is not playing with much confidence when it comes to actually putting the puck in the net. He had some amazing chances last night that he just failed to finish and he had a decent amount of other ones that he simply passed up.

Old Ovechkin would have had 4 last night...

And he was pissed, slamming the bench door after the missed breakaway.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

Probably not happening and that's a generous way to put it. They'd need a monumental change in winning rate to even make the playoffs, let alone win the division. Check it out:

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Washington.html

After tonight's game we have a 4.5% chance to make the playoffs. 2% we finish 8th, 1% we finish 7th, and 1% we finish 3rd. We're in the weakest division in the league, but the other four teams would really have to screw up from now till the end.

The least we can hope for to get a decent (70%) chance to make the playoffs is if we go 20-9-3 from here on out.

Right now we've got a little over twice as many losses as we do wins, 10 to 5. I really doubt we'll be a team that suddenly reverses and starts winning twice as many games than lost come Saturday.

Being really optimistic, say we come close to 20-9-3 but only go 19-9-4. Regardless, we'd all say what a great effort they showed in the end. It would truly be a great stretch to watch! However, due to that 1 extra OTL, our chances to make it fall below 50% to 48%. Say that OTL is a regulation loss, our chances fall to 27%. Only 18 wins? Our chances fall to 12%...

Point is, every game now is massive. Our slow start now has given us no room for error from here on out.

A logical/rational decision would be to tank because we're not making the playoffs.
But because this business is about entertainment, management won't allow it. At the end of the day they need to keep fans somewhat hopeful to make money and, because most casuals don't look at this kind of data, each win or good effort may seem like a big step forward, when really, it's too late.

The season is virtually over. I assume McPhee is well aware of this and so I expect him to be a seller come trade deadline time. That is if he's still around then.

I'll still be watching though.

using the same math on http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Washington.html looks like even if caps turn into 500 team caps would still be one of the bottom 3 teams in the standings.

 

[Calicaps]

Maybe if the same guy is repeating his same mistakes over and over and over again, which is what we're seeing.

GMGM's basically built the pre-firesale team again, because that's the culmination of his philosophies. He lucked into a Cup Finals team, and lucked into Ovechkin. And in both cases he neglected to stock a tough, solid defensive core, instead opting for old or inexperienced or soft d-men. He allowed the stars to run the team while the coach fell on his sword, and eventually ended up with a one-dimensional group of goldbrickers who can't play a full 60 minutes nevermind go deep in the playoffs, and who live and die by the power play/offensive skill and hot goaltending.

Holy **** that's depressingly accurate.

 

[g00n]

Holy **** that's depressingly accurate.

I think I first realized this was happening 1-2 years ago. The writing was on the wall. I actually went throught the pre-firesale roster and matched up every player with the guys who were on that more recent roster, and it was uncannily accurate.

He also has patterns in hiring coaches.

 

[RandyHolt]

I think I first realized this was happening 1-2 years ago. The writing was on the wall. I actually went throught the pre-firesale roster and matched up every player with the guys who were on that more recent roster, and it was uncannily accurate.

He also has patterns in hiring coaches.

Given a big enough sample size, patterns do emerge. The man behind the curtain eventually revealed. 15 years seems a fine sample size.

I think the patterns he falls into when constructing the defense may prove to be the most telling. But with Jagr and Ovi in the discussion, coupled with his rookie coaches, etc, his blueprint to building America's Hockey Team can now be seen.

 

[BTCG]

Given a big enough sample size, patterns do emerge. The man behind the curtain eventually revealed. 15 years seems a fine sample size.

I think the patterns he falls into when constructing the defense may prove to be the most telling. But with Jagr and Ovi in the discussion, coupled with his rookie coaches, etc, his blueprint to building America's Hockey Team can now be seen.

Oh pluheze!

Tinner and I told you this years ago.

You guys claimed we were wrong.

What is this... the rock opera Tommy? You got the miracle cure now????

Too funny!

 

[RandyHolt]

Oh pluheze!

Tinner and I told you this years ago.

You guys claimed we were wrong.

What is this... the rock opera Tommy? You got the miracle cure now????

Too funny!

If there is no link it didn't happen! You are not talking to George's mother here.

My first posts here often involved questioning of George. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Had BB / Dale led us to the finals or a cup last year, were you right?

"years ago" I am not sure we had progressed long enough through the rebuild - a 2nd failed cup window - long enough to know the blueprint has NO chance.

 

[BTCG]

If there is no link it didn't happen! You are not talking to George's mother here.

My first posts here often involved questioning of George. But even a blind squirrel finds a nut. Had BB / Dale led up to the finals or a cup last year, were you right?

"years ago" I am not sure we had progressed long enough through the rebuild - a 2nd failed cup run long enough to know the blueprint has NO chance.

So it is Tommy... the deaf dumb & blind defence.

What a hoot!

 

[RandyHolt]

So it is Tommy... the deaf dumb & blind defence.

What a hoot!

Lets see the list. Go through the pre-firesale roster and match it up with current players.

If you didn't think George would ever land us a cup, are you really going to beat on your chest that hard to say you predicted failure first from an organization that has never even won a cup?

Tommy did play a mean pinball but saying he would fail was paying **** odds.

 

[Ajax1995]

I think I first realized this was happening 1-2 years ago. The writing was on the wall. I actually went throught the pre-firesale roster and matched up every player with the guys who were on that more recent roster, and it was uncannily accurate.

He also has patterns in hiring coaches.

Except the team going into the season of the firesale was the victim of Leonis' kneejerk reaction to slash the budget as a result of all the empty seats during the playoffs series against Tampa. That left McPhee with no money to replace Johansson and Klee and left the team with just two NHL defensemen in Gonchar and Witt.

And I'm sorry but if you see the rest of today's blueline corps as the equivalent of Doig, Kwiatkowski, Berry, a 19 year old Eminger, Boumedienne, and Rohloff I'm not sure what to say. None of those guys should have even been in the league much less playing regular minutes.

You can argue that Erskine shouldn't be playing top 4 minutes and maybe Kundratek should be getting more AHL time but they are all NHL players except maybe him, though he is looking better and better IMO.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

I liked Rick Berry!

 

[g00n]

Except the team going into the season of the firesale was the victim of Leonis' kneejerk reaction to slash the budget as a result of all the empty seats during the playoffs series against Tampa. That left McPhee with no money to replace Johansson and Klee and left the team with just two NHL defensemen in Gonchar and Witt.

And I'm sorry but if you see the rest of today's blueline corps as the equivalent of Doig, Kwiatkowski, Berry, a 19 year old Eminger, Boumedienne, and Rohloff I'm not sure what to say. None of those guys should have even been in the league much less playing regular minutes.

You can argue that Erskine shouldn't be playing top 4 minutes and maybe Kundratek should be getting more AHL time but they are all NHL players except maybe him, though he is looking better and better IMO.

I think this is somewhat correct but not entirely. As I said, the roster I created was a year or two ago, not this year. Though there may be slight, superficial differences now. The overall pattern is the SAME.

Ted's "market has spoken" moment was a jab at the fans but he'd ALREADY gone cheap on the defense for the year of the TB series, and simply didn't upgrade the following year when it was painfully clear the defense stunk. What is GMGM's excuse for following the same pattern his entire career as a GM? You can't blame Ted here.


That wasn't the only problem either, as already mentioned.