18/19 Tank Tracker Part Deux

[lhsgolf19]

Shocker! All of the Tkachuks are douchebags lol

 

[lhsgolf19]

Ottawa wins 4-1

 

[FrolundaRedWings]

So we are probably gonna pass NYR now

 

[Leadzedder]

Wednesday...
NYR vs OTT - 0 points
ANA vs CGY - 2 points

At least we had some movement.


Standings
(8) 25. ANA - 78 - 31 (1)
(7) 24. EDM - 77 - 31 (2)
(6) 26. NYR - 75 - 25 (2)
(5) 27. DET - 74 - 29 (2)
(4) 28. BUF - 72 - 26 (2)


F*cking rangers.
With Anaheim win, they are still catchable because we have the tie breaker.



Thursday
DET vs PIT
BUF vs OTT
EDM vs SJS

A Buffalo win would be great to see. Would set up an interesting final game.

Friday
NYR vs CBJ
ANA vs LAK

Saturday
DET vs BUF
NYR vs PIT
EDM vs CGY

 

[pz29]

Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are not Zion Williamson. It's going to take a collective effort to turn this franchise around, not 1 piece. I hope to pick as high as possible, but our best young players look like players you can add pieces to at this point, not lost causes. Which is a step up from the off-season where we said Larkin wasn't a 1C and many said he couldn't be.

You are right, IMO. One piece never solves anything.

 

[jkutswings]

You are right, IMO. One piece never solves anything.

And nobody claimed otherwise. But if I think a top 3-5 player in this draft class is noticeably better than the next tier available, then why wouldn't I want the more talented/impactful option, even at the expense of a few more losses?

 

[pz29]

And nobody claimed otherwise. But if I think a top 3-5 player in this draft class is noticeably better than the next tier available, then why wouldn't I want the more talented/impactful option, even at the expense of a few more losses?

Seriously? I hate to get into an argument, but this forum oozes the idea that "if we could only get Hughes or fill in the blank", the rebuild will be done. Or that if we had 18 highly skilled super stars and no role players, we'd be golden.

 

[jkutswings]

Seriously? I hate to get into an argument, but this forum oozes the idea that "if we could only get Hughes or fill in the blank", the rebuild will be done. Or that if we had 18 highly skilled super stars and no role players, we'd be golden.

I can't speak for anybody else. But I do agree that, in the long run, a guy like Hughes or Kakko could make the difference between winning or losing a round in the playoffs. You need a good mix of All Stars, depth scoring, and role players, and right now Larkin is the only guy I would ever vote for as an All Star, so I'd love to get another one in what appears to be a very impressive top of a draft class.

Having a great 1-2 punch, with additional threats thereafter, is how I want to build things up front. And I don't yet see a compliment to Larkin as the 1-2 punch. AA and Mantha and Zadina and Hirose and Rasmussen and Veleno are all good assets to have behind Larkin. But they're all GREAT assets to have if they're behind "two Larkins" (let alone if they find an even better player than Dylan). It's a similar concept to landing a top defenseman, so you can slot everybody else down one notch, and they all simultaneously become a little more effective with better matchups.

Yes, it takes a village on a roster. But everybody in that village is more successful when they have an extra stud to rank behind.

 

[Cyborg Yzerberg]

Seriously? I hate to get into an argument, but this forum oozes the idea that "if we could only get Hughes or fill in the blank", the rebuild will be done. Or that if we had 18 highly skilled super stars and no role players, we'd be golden.

What we do need is more talent. Nothing hyperbolic like 18 skill players, but this team needs a top end talent like Hughes in the worst way. That won’t end the rebuild, but it’s another step out of the rebuild.

 

[Heaton]

What we do need is more talent. Nothing hyperbolic like 18 skill players, but this team needs a top end talent like Hughes in the worst way. That won’t end the rebuild, but it’s another step out of the rebuild.

I'm definitely conflicted, I've been a big proponent of this team being as bad as possible for the past couple years, but it's hard for me to get angry about the way we're winning games recently. I still feel that it's very unlikely this team is very good next year, so while I feel a top 3 pick will help us tremendously, I think a couple top 8 picks could also get the job done.

 

[Christien]

If I were to guess, we're going to lose tonight and then win against New York

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

We need high end talent, period.

We need it upfront and more so on the backend.

Maybe we already have those guys somewhere in the system but outside of Larkin they have yet to emerge.

Maybe you get lucky and draft a subban or kucherov in the second round this year or a Schiffele at pick 8.

Thd best odds though are at the top of the draft. I dont care how they do it but they better, or else the team wont ever compete for cups

 

[RedWingzz]

If I were to guess, we're going to lose tonight and then win against New York

We play the Sabres.

 

[obey86]

I'm definitely conflicted, I've been a big proponent of this team being as bad as possible for the past couple years, but it's hard for me to get angry about the way we're winning games recently. I still feel that it's very unlikely this team is very good next year, so while I feel a top 3 pick will help us tremendously, I think a couple top 8 picks could also get the job done.

Let's say we get Hughes this year and he's good enough right away to help the Wings become a team on the playoff bubble and the Wings won't be drafting super high again for the foreseeable future because of that. As opposed to drafting someone, say #6, who doesn't contribute this year at all and the Wings are still a ~bottom 5 team next season.

Looking at these two scenarios, would it be more advantageous long term for the Wings to have...
A) the #1 pick in 2019 and the #13 pick in 2020
or
B) the #6 pick in 2019 and the #6 pick in 2020

I know most people will say option A due to the #1 pick, but i'm not sure the answer is quite as clear cut as it looks. Option A, your odds of getting a single superstar player are higher. But option B, your odds of getting two star players (if not superstars) are higher IMO.

 

[jkutswings]

So is my math correct, thinking that, with 2 games left, Detroit could finish anywhere from 4th to 8th, heading into the lottery?

 

[Christien]

We play the Sabres.

Still don't think it'll make a difference

 

[Hen Kolland]

So is my math correct, thinking that, with 2 games left, Detroit could finish anywhere from 4th to 8th, heading into the lottery?

That seems to be correct. Meaning the potential range of picks are 1st through 11th, final games and lottery results pending.

 

[RedWingzz]

Let's say we get Hughes this year and he's good enough right away to help the Wings become a team on the playoff bubble and the Wings won't be drafting super high again for the foreseeable future because of that. As opposed to drafting someone, say #6, who doesn't contribute this year at all and the Wings are still a ~bottom 5 team next season.

Looking at these two scenarios, would it be more advantageous long term for the Wings to have...
A) the #1 pick in 2019 and the #13 pick in 2020
or
B) the #6 pick in 2019 and the #6 pick in 2020

I know most people will say option A due to the #1 pick, but i'm not sure the answer is quite as clear cut as it looks. Option A, your odds of getting a single superstar player are higher. But option B, your odds of getting two star players (if not superstars) are higher IMO.

Interesting point, but I, without a doubt, choose option A. Right now I have guys like Lavoie/Caufield/Soderstrom/York/Broberg/Newhook/Foote in the 13 range. I know things change from year to year, but I would definitely take a package of Hughes and a Newhook-type of prospect instead of getting Dach this year and another prospect with similar value to Dach next year.

Just by doing a bit of data analysis, from the 2007-2016 drafts (10 drafts) you have half of the picks becoming "star players" in the NHL. (Not necessarily superstar, but these guys are all top 5 players on their respective teams). Tkachuk (16), Monahan (13), H.Lindholm (12), Zibanejad (11), OEL (10).

You then have 4 players who are still quality NHL players, but more-so depth players. Zacha (15), Virtanen (14), Connolly (10), Gagner (07).

Then you have Nikita Filatov (08) who was a bust. I didn't include Zadina and Glass because it is yet to be determined what they become at the NHL level, but both have star potential as well. The 6th overall pick seems to be a solid draft slot over the last 12 years, with roughly a 50% chance of becoming a star player, and a 92% chance of the player becoming an NHL regular.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

Let's say we get Hughes this year and he's good enough right away to help the Wings become a team on the playoff bubble and the Wings won't be drafting super high again for the foreseeable future because of that. As opposed to drafting someone, say #6, who doesn't contribute this year at all and the Wings are still a ~bottom 5 team next season.

Looking at these two scenarios, would it be more advantageous long term for the Wings to have...
A) the #1 pick in 2019 and the #13 pick in 2020
or
B) the #6 pick in 2019 and the #6 pick in 2020

I know most people will say option A due to the #1 pick, but i'm not sure the answer is quite as clear cut as it looks. Option A, your odds of getting a single superstar player are higher. But option B, your odds of getting two star players (if not superstars) are higher IMO.

1 and 13 no question.

Also should remember, if we get a really good or elite player this year into he draft. And if kenny wants to compete next year, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we make the playoffs next year by acquiring 2 damn good players in free agency.

So yes you take the talent now. But I do feel.in this particular draft that fall off between Hughes at 1 and say turcotte or a similar center at 6 or 7 or 8 isn't nearly as bad as previous drafts. The high end talent is pretty deep.

 

[Larkin2AA]

1 and 13 no question.

Also should remember, if we get a really good or elite player this year into he draft. And if kenny wants to compete next year, it is not out of the realm of possibilities that we make the playoffs next year by acquiring 2 damn good players in free agency.

So yes you take the talent now. But I do feel.in this particular draft that fall off between Hughes at 1 and say turcotte or a similar center at 6 or 7 or 8 isn't nearly as bad as previous drafts. The high end talent is pretty deep.

I am also scared say option A happens and we get the #1 pick this year and become a fringe playoff team, that we might do something stupid such as become buyers at the deadline (i.e. overpay) to try and squeeze in. That would be my biggest fear with the 1st and 13th option. The #1 pick would be so appealing, but getting a top C at #6 this year, and possibly a top D at #6 next year seems like the safer bet to me.

 

[jkutswings]

I am also scared say option A happens and we get the #1 pick this year and become a fringe playoff team, that we might do something stupid such as become buyers at the deadline (i.e. overpay) to try and squeeze in. That would be my biggest fear with the 1st and 13th option. The #1 pick would be so appealing, but getting a top C at #6 this year, and possibly a top D at #6 next year seems like the safer bet to me.

In that scenario, I would much rather offer sheet a really high-end player with the picks that I would otherwise use to rent somebody at the deadline.

 

[TheOtherOne]

Let's say we get Hughes this year and he's good enough right away to help the Wings become a team on the playoff bubble and the Wings won't be drafting super high again for the foreseeable future because of that. As opposed to drafting someone, say #6, who doesn't contribute this year at all and the Wings are still a ~bottom 5 team next season.

Looking at these two scenarios, would it be more advantageous long term for the Wings to have...
A) the #1 pick in 2019 and the #13 pick in 2020
or
B) the #6 pick in 2019 and the #6 pick in 2020

I know most people will say option A due to the #1 pick, but i'm not sure the answer is quite as clear cut as it looks. Option A, your odds of getting a single superstar player are higher. But option B, your odds of getting two star players (if not superstars) are higher IMO.

To answer your question I'll say if I got the choice I'd take A 100 times out of 100.

To be cute I'll make a bold prediction: Next week we're going to drop 3 places back to pick at something like 8 or 9. Next year we're going to finish at #17 and win the 1oa pick.
Book it.

 

[Heaton]

Let's say we get Hughes this year and he's good enough right away to help the Wings become a team on the playoff bubble and the Wings won't be drafting super high again for the foreseeable future because of that. As opposed to drafting someone, say #6, who doesn't contribute this year at all and the Wings are still a ~bottom 5 team next season.

Looking at these two scenarios, would it be more advantageous long term for the Wings to have...
A) the #1 pick in 2019 and the #13 pick in 2020
or
B) the #6 pick in 2019 and the #6 pick in 2020

I know most people will say option A due to the #1 pick, but i'm not sure the answer is quite as clear cut as it looks. Option A, your odds of getting a single superstar player are higher. But option B, your odds of getting two star players (if not superstars) are higher IMO.

All depends how good the #1 pick is. Sometimes the #1 pick is franchise altering and you can start to win again much sooner. A couple #6 picks could also lead the same result or you can just be good enough to compete a little bit more.

I guess it's all a mystery at this point, we just know that typically the really high picks are the ones that turn things around.

 

[Leadzedder]

So is my math correct, thinking that, with 2 games left, Detroit could finish anywhere from 4th to 8th, heading into the lottery?

No need to hurt yourself with the math. Just look at the latest chart.

And yes. You’re correct.

With a Detroit loss tonight the only options are 4,5 or 6. I’m cheering for the pens tonight. Growth be damned.

If det and buff lose tonight Detroit will be 5 or 6 with the rangers.

If det loses and buff wins they’ll play for 4th on sat.

If Detroit wins tonight, whatever. Deal with that out one tomorrow.

The wings have had their fun, it’s time to lose.

 

[Leadzedder]

For Pittsburgh you would think they would rather face NYI than TBL or WSH.

If they lose they are opening the door for CAR or CLB to catch them. (And possibly the habs)