18/19 Tank Tracker Part Deux

[Winger98]

Continue Tank Talk here. To kick it off, I'm pasting in the post by @cheesehead9099 that I think should be a nice reminder to us here:

Lottery results w/ team's chance of winning that pick and their reverse seeding:

2016
1st: Leafs, 20% (last)
2nd: Winnipeg, 7.8% (6th last)
3rd: Columbus, 9.8% (4th last)

2017
1st: New Jersey - 8.5% (5th last)
2nd: Philadelphia - 2.5% (13th last)
3rd: Dallas - 6.4% (8th last)

2018
1st: Buffalo, 18% (last)
2nd: Carolina, 3.3% (11th last)
3rd: Montreal, 9.7% (4th last).

Since the new lottery system came into action, the top 3 teams have never really won the top picks. The last team has won the first pick a couple of times but it's mostly other teams jumping. This is an artifact of how close the odds actually are for all these teams - all within a few percentage points of each other. People here really need to realise that while it sucks that our odds are going down a bit ,the difference isn't nearly as big as you all think. Absolute worst case, 3 teams that are all below us win and we end with the 8th overall pick. Unlikely but that's the only case in whcih we get sorta screwed, cause picks 3-7 are all fantastic, as I've discussed on here before.

Being the absolute worst team in the league has won the lotto twice, but we also see a lot of teams jumping draft spots. And I don't think there is a chance of anyone catching Ottawa in the race to awful this year.

Click to read more...

 

[Invictus12]

This actually happens quite routinely when companies get sold. The company I work for was purchased last year, and there were layoffs both before and after the merger. Life ain't fair, but a front office isn't paid to be fair. They're paid to chase championships.



That's great if the most important priorities are players giving each other high fives and the attendance figures on a Tuesday in April. Which fans don't care about.

The team is gonna do what they're gonna do. But I can be a fan however I please, and if that includes locking half my roster in a dungeon to forfeit 38 games in a row and lock up a great draft pick, that's my choice. But from a more realistic standpoint, guys like Larkin and Bertuzzi and and the other kids playing well aren't going to implode because of a handful of games, so this notion of positive reinforcement sounds swell, but isn't the factor you make it out to be.

Yeah, and how productive are they when that happens??? Fair or not,you want to have your employers do a good job? You have to take their interests into account. You're doing the math on paper but fail to do it in real life and I've seen quite a few places literally shut down as a result, especially in the service industry. Where an accountant does the math but fails to see that after the math is done, the result is everyone stops giving a f***. When that happens, customers stop giving a f*** and so on and so forth...

Yeah, when it comes to positively enforcing someone, you have to be very opportunistic and the opportunity is right now when they're playing at their best. That is when you want to point it out that THIS IS WHAT WE WANT FROM YOU. It works in the moments where you actually see good things coming from them. Re-enforcement doesn't work on some backwards memory.

 

[Oddbob]

New Jersey won from 5th, so we have as good a chance as anyone of moving up.

 

[TheMule93]

New Jersey won from 5th, so we have as good a chance as anyone of moving up.

There is no factual basis to this statement.

 

[Oddbob]

There is no factual basis to this statement.

Why because the percentage chance is like 2% or some other small amount of difference? Outside picking 1st, the teams that picked 2nd/3rd where all 3rd or worse and most of them were decently worse.

2nd place in the past 3 years: 6th, 13th, 11th
3rd place in the past 3 years: 4th, 8th, 4th

Plenty of chance to move up, and even if we draft in the 3rd-8th, most of the players in that range are about even in value. Only 1 and 2 have separated themselves from the top.

 

[Hen Kolland]

There is no factual basis to this statement.

In his defense, the Devils did move up from 5th.

I think the wording was poor, obviously 2 has greater odds than 3 > 4 > 5 and so on. I think what he is implying is by not being in the playoffs, we have at least one ping pong ball in the mix, and as long as we have one, we have a puncher’s chance to pull it off.

 

[Oddbob]

In his defense, the Devils did move up from 5th.

I think the wording was poor, obviously 2 has greater odds than 3 > 4 > 5 and so on. I think what he is implying is by not being in the playoffs, we have at least one ping pong ball in the mix, and as long as we have one, we have a puncher’s chance to pull it off.

Yes, poor wording on my part. Obviously the numbers are higher for the lower teams, but we are also talking about low numbers in the 15-18 range in %. Not like it is 85% chance or something like that.

 

[Filppula]

Yeah whatever, we’re picking like 9th or something after being in the running for 1/2 all season. Fabulous.

 

[Oddbob]

Dropping 3 spots has only happened once in the past 3 years.

 

[Sparkzuk]

If another team moves up 10+ spots I hope they modify the odds. I don't want to end up stuck in mediocrity middle ground hell like Philly have.

 

[bullocks]

How do ruin your draft pick in two weeks: Detroit Red Wings Edition

 

[jkutswings]

There's still absolutely a chance that Detroit gets lucky, whether via a top 3 ping pong ball or by a player falling to them. But if/when all of that first group of players is taken before they're on the clock - and then one or more sliding first round talents get taken in the first 4-5 picks of the second round - that would be a major kick in the pants.

 

[obey86]

There's still absolutely a chance that Detroit gets lucky, whether via a top 3 ping pong ball or by a player falling to them. But if/when all of that first group of players is taken before they're on the clock - and then one or more sliding first round talents get taken in the first 4-5 picks of the second round - that would be a major kick in the pants.

Only 6 more days until we find out! Thank goodness!

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

I think we will end up with either cozens, turcotte or byram as I do think we will draft in the 3-6 slot

No Jack Hughes but still very good players

 

[jkutswings]

I think we will end up with either cozens, turcotte or byram as I do think we will draft in the 3-6 slot

No Jack Hughes but still very good players

I would be thrilled if Detroit had one or more of that trio available, but if the lottery happened today, their odds would be:

6th, 34.5%
7th, 26.7%
3rd, 8.9%
2nd, 8.7%
1st, 8.5%
8th, 4.3%

Not the greatest of probabilities.

 

[Leadzedder]

Tuesday Games
DET vs PIT - det win.
BUF vs NSH - loss
EDM vs COL - loss
VAN vs SJS - win
LAK vs ARI - win

With Vancouver’s win they are out of range. And with Detroit’s win, LAK and NJD are out of range.

Standings

(8) 24. EDM - 77 - 31 (2)
(7) 25. ANA - 76 - 30 (2)
(6) 26. NYR - 75 - 25 (3)
(5) 27. DET - 74 - 29 (2)
(4) 28. BUF - 72 - 26 (2)


We need some wins for NYR and Ana. Can’t be dropping more spots.

Wednesday...
NYR vs OTT
ANA vs CGY

Thursday
DET vs PIT
BUF vs OTT
EDM vs SJS

Friday
NYR vs CBJ
ANA vs LAK

Saturday
DET vs BUF
NYR vs PIT
EDM vs CGY

 

[Hen Kolland]

I would be thrilled if Detroit had one or more of that trio available, but if the lottery happened today, their odds would be:

6th, 34.5%
7th, 26.7%
3rd, 8.9%
2nd, 8.7%
1st, 8.5%
8th, 4.3%

Not the greatest of probabilities.

You forgot 5th at 8.4%. Just for completeness. The math was driving me mad for a moment.

Positive spin: that gives us still a 69% (nice) chance of picking in the range he cited, or better. I think many of us have a list of 5-6 names that we are good with. Obviously some we are better with than others, but I think it's time to shift expectations to hope, and get the contingency plans in place. For me right now, the top 5 wish list would be:

Kakko
Hughes
Turcotte
Byram
Cozens

 

[Leadzedder]

For added info.

Our season series against buffalo is 1-1-1. They are 2-1-0 against us. If we win the last game we will win the season series.

We would win the tiebreaker vs NYR due to row.

We would win the season series vs ANA.

Equal points / row with EDM would be undecided at this point. Even season series and goal differential is only a 2 goal difference.

 

[Larkin2AA]

You forgot 5th at 8.4%. Just for completeness. The math was driving me mad for a moment.

Positive spin: that gives us still a 69% (nice) chance of picking in the range he cited, or better. I think many of us have a list of 5-6 names that we are good with. Obviously some we are better with than others, but I think it's time to shift expectations to hope, and get the contingency plans in place. For me right now, the top 5 wish list would be:

Kakko
Hughes
Turcotte
Byram
Cozens

Switch Cozens and Byram and I agree with all here.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

So it looks like tonight we're hoping for NYR to beat Ottawa. Tomorrow, Buffalo also to beat Ottawa. That's like the hockey version of back-to-back tapings of Are You Smarter Than a 5th Grader?

Then on Friday, Anaheim vs LA could be a big game for us, so very much the same "can our competitors beat the very worst teams?" theme.

 

[RedWingsfan55]

I've embraced the tank buuuut I hate the pens. If they lose thursday(to us) and Saturday to the rangers, while Montreal wins thursday(Washington) and saturday(toronto), mtl would be in and Pissburgh out.

Not a fan of mtl either but hate them less than the pens right now.

Also just a feeling. If we "win" the lottery I think we end up third, missing Hughes and kakko. If we lose the lottery I think 2 teams will jump us, kind of standard based on history, so we will end up 7th as it stands now.

 

[BinCookin]

We can still pass NYR, Anaheim and Edmonton.

And honestly the way we are playing right now... I fully expect to win our last 2 games.

We may very well be looking at picking 8-11th.

 

[InjuredChoker]

this recent streak should convince kenny that the rebuild is over and we're ready to compete and make the playoffs. and anything can happen in the playoffs.

silver linings.

 

[Ezekial]

If we move into 6th position our odds of picking first are ~7.5%, top 3 is 23.3%, and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 19.4%, 3 spots 2.1%.

If we move into 7th position our odds of picking first are ~6.5%, top 3 is 20.4%, and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 13.5%, 3 spots 1%.


If we move into 8th position our odds of picking first are ~6%, top 3 is 19%and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 7.5%, 3 spots .4%.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

this recent streak should convince kenny that the rebuild is over and we're ready to compete and make the playoffs. and anything can happen in the playoffs.

silver linings.

Or maybe it will convince him that some of the vets are dead weight and he makes moves to shed them from the team.