18/19 Tank Tracker Part Deux

[Snuggs]

How do ruin your draft pick in two weeks: Detroit Red Wings Edition

Uh... Clearly "GROWTH".

Solid 10 games of it.

If we move into 6th position our odds of picking first are ~7.5%, top 3 is 23.3%, and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 19.4%, 3 spots 2.1%.

If we move into 7th position our odds of picking first are ~6.5%, top 3 is 20.4%, and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 13.5%, 3 spots 1%.


If we move into 8th position our odds of picking first are ~6%, top 3 is 19%and our odds of moving back 2 spots is 7.5%, 3 spots .4%.

Well I mean we were in 3rd or maybe even 2nd not even 10 days ago but we'll cherry pick the argument so the odds aren't drastic. From the real truth that's happened over this win streak.

 

[Snuggs]

Or maybe it will convince him that some of the vets are dead weight and he makes moves to shed them from the team.

Don't be talking dirty to us!

 

[Ezekial]

Uh... Clearly "GROWTH".

Solid 10 games of it.



Well I mean we were in 3rd or maybe even 2nd not even 10 days ago but we'll cherry pick the argument so the odds aren't drastic. From the real truth that's happened over this win streak.

Sorry to put facts ahead of the way you feel.

I didn't cherry pick shit, they're the actual odds.

 

[Athana see you later]

I think Blashill said it last night, but the prospects on our team right now are more important than anyone we could get in the draft. Drafting is not an exact science

 

[ricky0034]

I've embraced the tank buuuut I hate the pens. If they lose thursday(to us) and Saturday to the rangers, while Montreal wins thursday(Washington) and saturday(toronto), mtl would be in and Pissburgh out.

Not a fan of mtl either but hate them less than the pens right now.

Also just a feeling. If we "win" the lottery I think we end up third, missing Hughes and kakko. If we lose the lottery I think 2 teams will jump us, kind of standard based on history, so we will end up 7th as it stands now.

no if Pittsburgh loses both and Montreal wins both then Montreal will be in and Columbus or Carolina will be out

Pittsburgh not making it also requires Carolina to get at least 2 points and Columbus to get at least 3

 

[Snuggs]

Sorry to put facts ahead of the way you feel.

I didn't cherry pick ****, they're the actual odds.

You cherry-picked the difference in the odds from 6th/7th/8th to justify the winning streak/supporting it. When just about 10 days ago we had the 3rd spot which trumps all those odds for the top 3 pick by like 10% or more.

Significant gain or in our case, loss.. for anyone one team out of 14 to come up with in less than 10 days.

How I feel was I wanted a top pick, and with just a fraction left over in the season, we had a top 3 standing locked up basically unless something crazy like this happen.

* Read someone say they hope we do bad next year to justify hating this winning streak. I'll say truthfully that I hope they make the playoffs next year and I sound like a true chump for even caring about the win streak, and I hope they win the draft still no matter where we end up place wise, 8th, 9th, 10th, whatever. * I wanted to lose for a 2 top pick so we wouldn't suck forever or just be medicour, not to be "RIGHT." Or cause I feel some way. I'm a fan trying to watch good hockey from my team, this year was completely brutal, same with the year prior.

* I don't hate the Red Wings. Lol. We're catching lighting in a bottle right here. Most of you are counting on this play to continue or something like the old gold miners counted on the pay-streak rolling into next year after winter.

 

[ricky0034]

You cherry-picked the difference in the odds from 6th/7th/8th to justify the winning streak/supporting it. When just about 10 days ago we had the 3rd spot which trumps all those odds for the top 3 pick by like 10% or more.

Significant gain or in our case, loss.. for anyone one team out of 14 to come up with in less than 10 days.

How I feel was I wanted a top pick, and with just a fraction left over in the season, we had a top 3 standing locked up basically unless something crazy like this happen.

* Read someone say they hope we do bad next year to justify hating this winning streak. I'll say truthfully that I hope they make the playoffs next year and I sound like a true chump for even caring about the win streak, and I hope they win the draft still no matter where we end up place wise, 8th, 9th, 10th, whatever. * I wanted to lose for a 2 top pick so we wouldn't suck forever or just be medicour, not to be "RIGHT." Or cause I feel some way. I'm a fan trying to watch good hockey from my team, this year was completely brutal, same with the year prior.

and even moving from 6 to 8 dropping those two spots drops the average pick from 5.9 to 7.4

that's a pretty big difference

 

[Ezekial]

You cherry-picked the difference in the odds from 6th/7th/8th to justify the winning streak/supporting it. When just about 10 days ago we had the 3rd spot which trumps all those odds for the top 3 pick by like 10% or more.

Significant gain or in our case, loss.. for anyone one team out of 14 to come up with in less than 10 days.

How I feel was I wanted a top pick, and with just a fraction left over in the season, we had a top 3 standing locked up basically unless something crazy like this happen.

No, I chose those odds because people fear we could end up 8th. Specifically, someone said they expect to pick between 8-11. Originally I only had the 8th spot to show how unlikely it would be for us to pick 11. Then I decided it could be useful for some people to see the actual percentages based on what their biggest fears are.
I don't have an agenda. I don't come on this website to convince people of things. I come here to discuss hockey, contracts, and prospects, not lord my superior mindset over people.

 

[Ezekial]

Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are not Zion Williamson. It's going to take a collective effort to turn this franchise around, not 1 piece. I hope to pick as high as possible, but our best young players look like players you can add pieces to at this point, not lost causes. Which is a step up from the off-season where we said Larkin wasn't a 1C and many said he couldn't be.

 

[Snuggs]

No, I chose those odds because people fear we could end up 8th. Specifically, someone said they expect to pick between 8-11. Originally I only had the 8th spot to show how unlikely it would be for us to pick 11. Then I decided it could be useful for some people to see the actual percentages based on what their biggest fears are.
I don't have an agenda. I don't come on this website to convince people of things. I come here to discuss hockey, contracts, and prospects, not lord my superior mindset over people.

LOL, one cheeky fellow are you?

I'll just keep LORDING my superior mindset with people that are passive aggressively quoting my posts and call me things like narrow minded.

It's ok I'm over it. Tank doesn't matter much to me anymore with these odds. I'm just hoping we're lucky come draft lottery.

 

[Ezekial]

LOL, one cheeky fellow are you?

I'll just keep LORDING my superior mindset with people that are passive aggressively quoting my posts and call me things like narrow minded.

It's ok I'm over it. Tank doesn't matter much to me anymore with these odds. I'm just hoping we're lucky come draft lottery.

If you think KH can just walk in the room and say "Dylan, you're shut down for the season. Need that good draft lottery position, bud." You are narrow minded and very unsure of how how a hockey organization who's roster moves have a rippling effect over 3 teams in 3 leagues works.
I'm not lording anything, I'm bluntly telling you how unrealistic you are being.

 

[ArGarBarGar]

At this point we would need to ice 1/4 of our roster to ensure we stop winning games.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

Jack Hughes and Kappo Kakko are not Zion Williamson. It's going to take a collective effort to turn this franchise around, not 1 piece. I hope to pick as high as possible, but our best young players look like players you can add pieces to at this point, not lost causes. Which is a step up from the off-season where we said Larkin wasn't a 1C and many said he couldn't be.

good thing they aren't zion! i don't want the wings to draft zion, he can't play hockey!

 

[Konnan511]

At this point we would need to ice 1/4 of our roster to ensure we stop winning games.

Larkin, Mantha, Bert, Hirose, Hronek, and AA all get the "flu". Forfeit remaining games.

 

[JustJokinenAround]

If you think KH can just walk in the room and say "Dylan, you're shut down for the season. Need that good draft lottery position, bud." You are narrow minded and very unsure of how how a hockey organization who's roster moves have a rippling effect over 3 teams in 3 leagues works.
I'm not lording anything, I'm bluntly telling you how unrealistic you are being.

its definitely irritating that they get this far and win 8 of 9 and go from 2 to 5 and possibly back to 8 but as you said there isn't a whole lot they can do. its the same team that was 30th two weeks ago, they aren't just going to bench larkin, athanasiou, mantha, bertuzzi, howard and bernier. there is still no reason they could win the lottery and it would be okay

 

[Ezekial]

its definitely irritating that they get this far and win 8 of 9 and go from 2 to 5 and possibly back to 8 but as you said there isn't a whole lot they can do. its the same team that was 30th two weeks ago, they aren't just going to bench larkin, athanasiou, mantha, bertuzzi, howard and bernier. there is still no reason they could win the lottery and it would be okay

I don't mean to come off as I'm rooting for wins, I'm not happy with our change in positioning, I just don't feel "woe is us" about it.

 

[Snuggs]

If you think KH can just walk in the room and say "Dylan, you're shut down for the season. Need that good draft lottery position, bud." You are narrow minded and very unsure of how how a hockey organization who's roster moves have a rippling effect over 3 teams in 3 leagues works.
I'm not lording anything, I'm bluntly telling you how unrealistic you are being.

Well maybe you're right then, Maybe I am unrealistic. Idk, I just feel like he could of done that if he wanted too. Hell, in hindsight I'm almost sure he'd do it now, and used his back-soreness as an excuse for it but whatever.

I absolutely do not know the inner workings of those three leagues and the relationships with the GM's etc, not even going to pretend to know what they talk or not talk about with player movement/etc. Maybe Holland cares/has relationships, maybe he doesn't, idk.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Well maybe you're right then, Maybe I am unrealistic. Idk, I just feel like he could of done that if he wanted too. Hell, in hindsight I'm almost sure he'd do it now, and used his back-soreness as an excuse for it but whatever.

I absolutely do not know the inner workings of those three leagues and the relationships with the GM's etc, not even going to pretend to know what they talk or not talk about with player movement/etc. Maybe Holland cares/has relationships, maybe he doesn't, idk.

He can't. The NHLPA would go nuts about it. Fans (the casual fans who go to the games and just care about the game as it is, not draft picks or whatever) would go nuts about it. For instance, see the outrage with the Spurs giving guys load management days or people blowing their top when LeBron James takes a game off.

And just as a general rule, you can't go and tell your highest performing employees... hey, stop doing so well.

Frankly, it has less to do with any personal relationships that Holland has or doesn't have with a specific player. You don't tell your top salesman "hey, stop working on the Harris account because we want to be under $1 million in sales so we can get a government bailout of $500k". Because even if you get that money and it's fabulous for a second, you've pissed off that employee that was killing it. Particularly a guy that takes pride in being a rink rat and working his ass off like Larkin. He wants to play, not do the gamesmanship of losing for a pick.

 

[Gniwder]

no if Pittsburgh loses both and Montreal wins both then Montreal will be in and Columbus or Carolina will be out

Pittsburgh not making it also requires Carolina to get at least 2 points and Columbus to get at least 3

Last playoff spot gets Tampa Bay first round. I'm pretty sure Pitt will play hard next game, they're not gonna get taken by the BLM line again. They'll dress Malkin and Letang if they're anywhere close to ready.

I have the Wings losing the next game in regulation and beating Buf.

 

[lhsgolf19]

Tonight, Go Rangers (need a win) and Go Ducks (need a point)! lol

 

[ZDH]

Rags down early vs Sens.

 

[Sparkzuk]

Rags throwing the game to the sens. Our 9th OA pick is going to be soooo good. Glad we went on this win streak. :p

 

[FrolundaRedWings]

We need the Rangers to pull off this comeback. ITS OTTAWA!

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

Oh cool, the Rangers are pathetic.

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

What are they even doing to poor Lias Andersson? Seems like he's in the NHL before he's ready.