18/19 MGMT thread VII. WARNING POST #25

[4Twenty]

Why would they have Boeser in that scenario? A different GM would've drafted differently. I'm also going with the notion that the team picks the best ranked prospect each year - which is why they would've chosen Nylander and Tkachuk for example. The best ranked player was actually Konecny at 23 that year, who was picked right afterwards.

Sorry, the last part doesn't add up. We'll have to agree to disagree regarding the hypothetical scenario of adding two 60 point wingers for the 2016/17 season. But no one really knows for sure.

More importantly - if the Canucks are making selections according to a different criteria, and they chose different players according to that different criteria, suddenly they go off the board and take Petterson earlier than he was ranked? That's not logical. They chose best ranked player each year, which hypothetically gives them a great young group of Nylander, Tkachuk and say Konecny, somehow the team isn't any better and then they change what is a highly successful drafting methodology to take Petterson?

Seems rather dubious. If you're just talking Tkachuk alone, sure. That was a blown, head-scratching miss by the team which is incredibly unfortunate. No argument there.

Oh I didn't know you were pushing the best ranked angle. And I didn't know you were grouping Nylander and Tkachuk. I was just talking drafting Tkachuk, because I don't really see how he makes the team that much better at that stage to take the team out of the lottery, but you were talking both Nylander and Tkachuk, hence the confusion.

The biggest issue I had with the Juolevi and Virtanen picks, is that they were specialty picks, targeting "needs". People like the Boeser and Pettersson picks because they were targeting the most skilled players available. Swing on skill is what people wanted I think, at least I did. It wasn't as much about reaching for the draft position, but what they were reaching for.

That said, I read somewhere the other day that someone mentioned the regime may have been a little embarassed trying to get "too cute" with the Juolevi pick, so maybe if they don't make that mistake they don't change their ways and don't pick Pettersson the next year.

All that said, I think they could just as likely have both Tkachuk and Pettersson if they were swinging on skill the whole time, but like you've said, useless hypothetical conversation, that I'll stop speaking on now.

 

[ccjon]

I wonder how they selected their sample and what steps they took to eliminate bias..

2000 / 31 = about 65 Canucks fans who probably participated.. Depending on where the respondents came from I believe it's likely to be biased against Benning.. not that it doesn't accurately capture the pulse of a some online circles of Canucks fans but as a whole.. the evidence is overwhelming that most Canuck fans in the real world support Benning so I can confidently say the poll was not representative of this fanbase.

Fans of other teams I don't expect to know anything about evaluating GMs of teams they aren't fans of so I disregard.

In regards to the bolded, how did you get your sample and what steps did you take to eliminate bias?

 

[Jyrki21]

 

[Pastor Of Muppetz]

Hopefully Shannon is wrong on this...Even though I am not anti management,I truly hope that Benning is not forced into some short sighted moves to get into the playoffs...Even though there has been progress this year, this is not their year.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Hopefully Shannon is wrong on this...Even though I am not anti management,I truly hope that Benning is not forced into some short sighted moves to get into the playoffs...Even though there has been progress this year, this is not their year.

I look back to the 1999/2000 season as a barometer for what the Canucks should do. They were fighting for a playoff spot in the back stretch of the season, and they moved their leading goal scorer - Alex Mogilny - to New Jersey for Brendan Morrison and Denis Pederson. Morrison ended up being a fixture in the team's top six for nearly a decade.

This was a team that was young, competing for a playoff spot, but still had its eye on the long term plan. This is the way the Canucks should approach this deadline, too (if they still find themselves in the thick of the race at deadline time, that is). If an opportunity to move a veteran such as Edler for key pieces that can help this team in the long term arises, I hope we do it.

 

[valkynax]

Hopefully Shannon is wrong on this...Even though I am not anti management,I truly hope that Benning is not forced into some short sighted moves to get into the playoffs...Even though there has been progress this year, this is not their year.

 

[Fire Benning]

Love when teams who are on pace for 82 points push hard to make the playoffs.

 

[Melvin]

Love when teams who are on pace for 82 points push hard to make the playoffs.

Herp but we're only x points out of a derp

 

[valkynax]

Herp but we're only x points out of a derp

 

[Fire Benning]

I'm starting to worry if this team is a handful of points out of playoff spot at the deadline they'll throw a bunch of picks away for rental players only to miss the playoffs entirely or get whooped in the first round.

 

[Peter10]

I'm starting to worry if this team is a handful of points out of playoff spot at the deadline they'll throw a bunch of picks away for rental players only to miss the playoffs entirely or get whooped in the first round.

Maybe that is what is needed to get him fired. If so, I am all for it.

 

[Fire Benning]

Maybe that is what is needed to get him fired. If so, I am all for it.

That's a good point.

 

[THE Green Man]

You know, if Benning had a better eye for talent at the pro-level, we would 100% be sitting in a WC spot. Horvat taking his game to a complete new level, and the emergence of Pettersson have made the Canucks a respectable team.

Forsling over Pouliot, improves this roster.
Rasmus Andersson over Baertschi, arguably improves this roster.
McCann over Gudbranson, improves this roster.
Tkachuk over Juolevi, massively improves this roster.

If Benning just doesn't make a few moves, this team would actually be far better. McCann on the wing with either Horvat/Pettersson, actually could've been a huge boost to the teams top six. I see no reason why he couldn't provide what Baertschi does especially if paired with someone like Pettersson, and perhaps better as he progressed.

I don't really want to get into the drafting because we all know a few selections could change everything. Virtanen is officially not the biggest drafting blunder anymore - Juolevi over Tkachuk is a massive miss....and we have to play Tkachuk in our division for the next 10-15 years. Insult to injury.

McCann - Pettersson - Boeser
Tkachuk - Horvat - Virtanen

Man, that is unbelievably sexy and has us set and ready to battle for a playoff spot, and all Benning had to do was not make some trades, and just take the damn BPA. Sometimes the best trades, are the ones you don't make - and that is absolutely the case here.

On defense...Forsling for Clendening was terrible at the time of the trade and is even worse now. Not trading a pick for Baertschi, likely has us with a 22 year old RHD defenseman. I'm only saying we get Andersson because I'm unsure who we would take and can't really speculate on that.

Edler - Tanev
Hutton - Stecher
Forsling - Andersson

Pretty raw defense, but I'd take this over what we currently have knowing we we may actually have a future defense core with Hutton (25 years old), Stecher (24 years old), Forsling (22 years old), Andersson (22 years old). I don't even have Tryamkin included in this either, and he was easily a top four defenseman for us before he left.

Then with Hughes on the way next year full time, most likely.

McCann - Pettersson - Boeser
Tkachuk - Horvat - Virtanen
Goldobin - Sutter - Leivo
Roussel - Beagle - Eriksson
Motte
Granlund
Schaller

Edler - Tanev
Hutton - Stecher
Forsling - Andersson

Markstrom
-
Bolded are the changes. Our roster could look something like this today, if only 3 trades, and a BPA pick happen/don't happen. This team is probably in a WC spot, considering where the team is at right now without the upgrades of this lineup. Benning's lack of pro-level talent assessment, has really screwed this roster over, among other things.

I don't believe any of these contradict one another, as in, I don't think one move directly affects another. If so, please correct me. The only one I see, is if we get Tkachuk, we may not have Pettersson, but Pettersson's ranking seemed to be all over the place.

I don't completely agree with the whole post but I'd go as far as to say just taking the easy pick in Tkachuk over OJ and not trading for Gudbrandson, the top 9 would be complete easily. Defense would still be a mess but this top 12 would have been so exciting:

Tkachuk-Ep40-Boeser
Debrincat-Horvat-Goldobin
Baertschi-Sutter-Virtanen
Rousell-Beagle-Gaudette/Eriksson

 

[Jyrki21]

As always, click through twice to enlarge.

 

[Melvin]

With the draft in Vancouver seems less likely we do something incredibly dumb like deal our first for a rental dman in a futile attempt to compete, but lmao if Benning does it. That would probably be the end of him

 

[Motte and Bailey]

we just dominated the Winnipeg Jets tonight and they are on the short list of teams favoured to win the SC

At this point in the season like over 90% of the games have either been entertaining and/or the boys put in a great effort worth feeling good about cheering for.

Given all that and also how young this team is and how much room it has to grow - how can anyone say Benning has built the team poorly?

 

[PuckMunchkin]

With the draft in Vancouver seems less likely we do something incredibly dumb like deal our first for a rental dman in a futile attempt to compete, but lmao if Benning does it. That would probably be the end of him

On TSN Rink Wide Burke / Wadden said there is a rumour out that ownership has given a mandate not to trade away any picks for the next draft.

For what thats worth..

 

[Melvin]

On TSN Rink Wide Burke / Wadden said there is a rumour out that ownership has given a mandate not to trade away any picks for the next draft.

For what thats worth..

Interesting. Good to see owners but a leash on him if true. One can only hope this mess doesn't continue much longer.

 

[Intangibos]

Tonight is an example of the difference some depth can make.

You don't spend:
$4m on Gudbranson
$3m on Del Zotto
$1.1m on Pouliot
($8.1 million on replacement level players, though I would give a pass on MDZ)
And expect to compete

You don't spend
$1.5m on Granlund
$3m on Beagle
$3m on Roussel (If he keeps playing the way he does I wouldn't mind him at 2.5 so it's fine as an "overpayment slot")
$6m on Eriksson
$1.9m on Schaller
$3.15m on Gagner
($18.65m on AHL players, a 3rd liner making $6m, a slight Gaunce upgrade for +2.25m and maybe a quality 3rd liner in Roussel for a slight overpayment)
and expect to compete

This team has a

#1C Horvat making $5.5m
#1C Pettersson making $925k on an ELC
#1 RW Boeser making $925k on an ELC

#2 RW/LW Goldobin making $863k
#2 LW Baertschi making $3,366,666

#3 RW Virtanen making $1,250,000
#3 LW Leivo making $925,000
#3 LW Roussel making $3M (I don't like him career-Roussel for $3m, but if he keeps up his play I would say $3m is totally fine).
#3 C Sutter making $4,375,000

#4 C Gaudette making $916,666
#4 LW/C Motte making $925,000
#4 C/LW Gaunce making $750,000

#2D Tanev making $4.45m
#2D Edler making $5m
#3/4D Hutton making $2.8m

#1G Markstrom making $3.66m

All for $39.6m. We should have 40m to work with to fill out that roster.

$40,000,000 for a backup goalie, a #1 winger #4 LW, 2x top 4D and a #6D

Baertschi - Horvat - $9m
Goldobin - Pettersson - Boeser
Leivo - Sutter - Virtanen
Roussel - Gaudette - Gaunce
Motte

Edler - Tanev
Hutton - $6m
$6m - $2.235m (Stetcher)
$2m

Markstrom
$2.5m

Lets say we keep Stetcher @2.325m and a goaltender like Nilsson for $2.5m
So now with $35.175m we need a #1 winger, preferably 2x #3/4D, and a #6D

We could spend 2x $6m on 2x #3D, #9m on a #1 RW and $2m on a #6D and still have $17m left over. This takes care of the Boeser raise (+$7m), Goldobin raise (+$2m), Hutton raise (+$1.2m), Leivo raise (+$1.2m), and Motte raise (+$600k) and still have $5m money left over.

Instead we have Beagle, Eriksson, Schaller, Gagner, Gudbranson eating up space as completely replaceable players.

It's inexcusable for a team with a #1C making 5.5, a #1C and #1RW making 925k and a 2RW (playing on his off-wing) making 816k to not be a contending team. Like it's actually shocking that someone could manage it. We could go into the off season and sign both Stone and Karlsson for $9m each if we didn't have all this wasted space. If Hughes makes it next year on an ELC then it's a damn shame because it should be a cup contending team, but it won't be. We could have:

Baertschi(3.367) - Horvat(5.5) - Boeser(8)
Goldobin(3) - Pettersson(0.925) - Stone(9)
Leivo(2) - Sutter(4.375) - Virtanen(1.25)
Roussel(3) - Gaudette(0.917) - Gaunce(0.750)
Motte(1.5)

Edler(5) - Karlsson(9)
Hughes(0.925) - Tanev(4.45)
Hutton(4) - Stetcher(2.325)
#7 (2)

Markstrom(3.667)
Whoever(2.5, or Demko on ELC)

Luongo Retained (0.8)

For 78.251m which is under this year's cap, which might go up. Also, realistically, Edler will probably take a pay cut and Hutton won't get 4m. Just like everyone predicted the bad contracts f***ed us. We could have an absolute powerhouse team if we didn't have absolutely trash pro-scouting or cap management. Instead we have Benning.

We wouldn't even have to trade anything, we could just overpay for 2 UFAs to fill out the roster by cutting the dead weight and using guys like Gaudette and Gaunce as extremely serviceable depth players on the cheap. Though upgrading on some guys like Leivo, Gaudette and Virtanen would be ideal. Especially if Baertschi isn't good to go, we'll need someone else. It could be done though depending on the cap and other depth spending.

You need ELCs to contribute to put yourself over, but with all those savings wasted on fringe players it doesn't matter. It's like a game of inches and a huge part of management is managing the cap and fitting an elite roster under it. You can't just draft some good players and just win without acquiring something.

Right now I would actually consider dumping Beagle, Gudbranson, Eriksson, Gagner and Schaller, and pay to do so. Beagle and Gudbranson wouldn't cost us anything as a cap dump, in fact they could actually return assets. Eriksson, Gagner and Schaller would cost us. Pouliot, Granlund, MDZ and Nilsson can be allowed to walk at the end of the year, though I would be fine taking Nilsson back if Demko isn't ready. I like Stetcher as well but if you could get something for him, sign a decent depth D who won't be playing that many minutes behind a pretty good core you could have a bit more space as well as some later picks to help pay for the cap dump.

Even though Benning f***ed this team up royally, if he was able to sell Beagle/Gudbranson to partially pay for the Eriksson/Gagner/Schaller cap dumps and sign Stone and Karlsson as UFAs he would redeem himself and we would have a competitive team.

Betcha he won't, though.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Wait I thought we should be rebuilding.. 2 months later we should be a powerhouse contender? From where do we get the money to re-sign Pettersson and Hughes in your scenario? Would have to gut the depth or trade one of Boeser, Stone, and Karlsson which makes signing the latter redundant. This is all assuming Stone and Karlsson get to UFA and want to sign here AND assuming they will only sign for $9m. I bet Karlsson gets closer to 11

 

[Intangibos]

Wait I thought we should be rebuilding.. 2 months later we should be a powerhouse contender? From where do we get the money to re-sign Pettersson and Hughes in your scenario? Would have to gut the depth or trade one of Boeser, Stone, and Karlsson which makes signing the latter redundant. This is all assuming Stone and Karlsson get to UFA and want to sign here AND assuming they will only sign for $9m. I bet Karlsson gets closer to 11

Are you aware of the passage of time? We could be a contender. We're not because we have a bunch of trash contracts from trying to avoid rebuilding.

Pettersson and Hughes don't get off their ELCs for multiple years. Sutter will come off the books, Edler will very likely take a pay cut, Tanev will be 31 when his contract expires and do the same, Baertschi's contract will expire and we should also have new ELCs coming into the lineup given how ELITE our prospect pool allegedly is! Demko/DiPietro to replace Marky/Nillson? Woo? Madden/Rathbone/Lockwood? What about the STAR Juolevi?

You are aware that contracts expire and you can cycle players new players in and old players out, right?

Also, are you admitting that this team has no cap space and can't compete now? I'm glad you admit that this team doesn't have any hope of competing. Thank you!

 

[geebaan]

Luckily Shannon is a f***ing moron, and time after time he shows how little he knows about our team.

 

[Melvin]

We're basically the 2010-2014ish Oilers. For years their leading scorers were 18-23 years old in hall, Eberle, rnh, Gagner. But they filled out the roster with trash and had no defense.

We are slightly better because we at least have Markstrom, tanev, Edler from prior management but that's only going to last for so much longer.

Depressing.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Are you aware of the passage of time? We could be a contender. We're not because we have a bunch of trash contracts from trying to avoid rebuilding.

Pettersson and Hughes don't get off their ELCs for multiple years. Sutter will come off the books, Edler will very likely take a pay cut, Tanev will be 31 when his contract expires and do the same, Baertschi's contract will expire and we should also have new ELCs coming into the lineup given how ELITE our prospect pool allegedly is! Demko/DiPietro to replace Marky/Nillson? Woo? Madden/Rathbone/Lockwood? What about the STAR Juolevi?

You are aware that contracts expire and you can cycle players new players in and old players out, right?

Also, are you admitting that this team has no cap space and can't compete now? I'm glad you admit that this team doesn't have any hope of competing. Thank you!

Thanks for proving me CORRECT yet again bud. Even if what you said was true which it isn’t it would only be enough cap space to re-sign one of Peterson and Hughes PLUS it would gut our depth.

Sutter “coming off the books” is not good news it’s not going to help because he’s on a great contract and WHO is going to replace him?

You think Tanev will take a DISCOUNT? That’s Ridiculous!

Don’t think Gaudette and Virtanen will need a raise?

The guy replacing Baertschi and Edler will also need to get paid so really what you’re saying is let’s have zero depth.

And what happens when Demko or Markstrom wants to get a fair contract? Assuming they will be goalies that we can win with that’s another 6 million for one and 1-2 million for the backup option.

I get it you’re trying to make Benning look bad which is the motivation behind most postings in this thread and it would be cool to have Stone and Karlsson but your proposal would not work in reality at all.

 

[Hit the post]

We're basically the 2010-2014ish Oilers. For years their leading scorers were 18-23 years old in hall, Eberle, rnh, Gagner. But they filled out the roster with trash and had no defense.

We are slightly better because we at least have Markstrom, tanev, Edler from prior management but that's only going to last for so much longer.

Depressing.

Coilers had a couple years of Eakins in that period. Jeebus, even coach 1-2-3-4 is better than coach swarm.