GDT: 151121 Sharks @ Penguins -- DeBoer out

[Gene Parmesan]

Also if you look at ice times. Top guys are generally above 25 minutes on the back end and will flirt with 30+ in playoffs.

This is a refreshing change to me. These coaches want to win and I'd expect guys like vlasic burns martin and Braun to all be able to go 25+ a night and more in the playoffs. A tired vlasic still beats Dillon Tennyson mueller.

Yup. Condition them to playing hard minutes. Forwards too.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Yup. Condition them to playing hard minutes. Forwards too.

Meh I prefer to pace out the players. It's a long season. The more they're out there, the more you're risking them to injury. Tired stars may be better than rested role players but that's not really the point. They need to be better than the stars on the other team and gassing them this early in the year is going to catch up to them if it continues.

I didn't like Thornton, Pavs, and Dillon in this game. Too many dumb passes. 2nd and 3rd lines were pretty damn good though. Jones was a beast in net.

 

[hohosaregood]

I didn't get to watch the game today but I gotta say, advanced statistics really have not on our side during this road trip. It's great that we're pulling out wins and all but I'd hate for it to be short lived. If we can "unsustainable" our ways to a cup, I'm all for it. But that's pretty unlikely considering all sorts of unsustainability we've seen collapse explosively in the last 3-4 years.

 

[Mafoofoo]

I didn't like Thornton, Pavs, and Dillon in this game. Too many dumb passes. 2nd and 3rd lines were pretty damn good though. Jones was a beast in net.

Agreed though I'm sure we'll have stretches of Jumbo and Pavs putting in work while the 2nd line sags. But yeah those two gotta step it up.

I didn't get to watch the game today but I gotta say, advanced statistics really have not on our side during this road trip. It's great that we're pulling out wins and all but I'd hate for it to be short lived. If we can "unsustainable" our ways to a cup, I'm all for it. But that's pretty unlikely considering all sorts of unsustainability we've seen collapse explosively in the last 3-4 years.

If we go all the way this year it'll probably be based on complete ******** flukes like suddenly Pavs and Burns shooting at 30% in the playoffs, Jones being even more of a beast and **** like "oh toews passed the puck back to keith and instead it bounced off of some ****** ice at united and into the net instead" or "oh man kopitar and doughty both out with food poisoning from eating stale hotdogs at venice beach right before the playoffs".

One can dream.

 

[Alwalys]

I didn't get to watch the game today but I gotta say, advanced statistics really have not on our side during this road trip. It's great that we're pulling out wins and all but I'd hate for it to be short lived. If we can "unsustainable" our ways to a cup, I'm all for it. But that's pretty unlikely considering all sorts of unsustainability we've seen collapse explosively in the last 3-4 years.

here's where the advanced stats lie a bit, the team has been passing the eye test despite giving up corsi events. the pens didn't really threaten all that much today, and i'm kind of wondering whether this is any kind of effect of the deboer system. keep the defense tight and despite giving up shots you don't give up goals.

we've seen other teams do this to the sharks a lot, so it's a little weird to be on the other side of it. i'm still figuring out whether it's a real thing or just luck ... i've always subscribed to it being luck more than anything but so far i'm seeing some things happen that could change my mind.

i think there have been some score effects as well.

edit: I went back and took a closer look at the advanced stats, and from what i can see, the team has remained competitive possession-wise in some way through most of the road trip. some games it was 5v5, others it was special teams. these are road games so it's a good sign that the team is finding ways to stay in games then ending up out of them.

 

[do0glas]

Meh I prefer to pace out the players. It's a long season. The more they're out there, the more you're risking them to injury. Tired stars may be better than rested role players but that's not really the point. They need to be better than the stars on the other team and gassing them this early in the year is going to catch up to them if it continues.

I didn't like Thornton, Pavs, and Dillon in this game. Too many dumb passes. 2nd and 3rd lines were pretty damn good though. Jones was a beast in net.

No team evenly distributed ice time. Look at cup winners. Their top guys are going from 25+ a night regular season to 27-31 a night in the playoffs. He'll even Paul Martin was eating 27 minutes 2013/2014 playoffs. So that's three guys on our team that can eat minutes. But if you only trot them out for 19-21 min in Reg season they won't be Rdy in the playoffs to be out for 31.

Just like you don't bank sleep you don't bank stamina. The more you do, barring injury the more you can do.

 

[magic school bus]

They didn't play in the playoffs last season. They'll be fine.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

No team evenly distributed ice time. Look at cup winners. Their top guys are going from 25+ a night regular season to 27-31 a night in the playoffs. He'll even Paul Martin was eating 27 minutes 2013/2014 playoffs. So that's three guys on our team that can eat minutes. But if you only trot them out for 19-21 min in Reg season they won't be Rdy in the playoffs to be out for 31.

Just like you don't bank sleep you don't bank stamina. The more you do, barring injury the more you can do.

I'm not talking about evenly distributing ice time. I'm talking about not overusing guys when it's a long season. The Sharks weren't doing anything different most years in the playoffs in terms of player usage. They're not going to be any less ready playing 30 minutes in the playoffs regardless of how they're used now.

You don't bank stamina but you do wear guys out playing them that much for extended periods of time.

 

[do0glas]

I'm not talking about evenly distributing ice time. I'm talking about not overusing guys when it's a long season. The Sharks weren't doing anything different most years in the playoffs in terms of player usage. They're not going to be any less ready playing 30 minutes in the playoffs regardless of how they're used now.

You don't bank stamina but you do wear guys out playing them that much for extended periods of time.

I disagree. You don't condition for a 10k run by running a couple of miles three times a week.

Also the closests we've gotten to that type of usage was Dan Boyle who maxed at 28 min a game when we were getting destroyed by the blues. Dan Boyle was already declining at that point. The two years we made the conference finals he averaged 26-27. This year we have burns vlasic and martin who should all be able to run that much ice time. When vlasic is averaging 21 min in playoffs there is a problem.

 

[Barrie22]

I'm not talking about evenly distributing ice time. I'm talking about not overusing guys when it's a long season. The Sharks weren't doing anything different most years in the playoffs in terms of player usage. They're not going to be any less ready playing 30 minutes in the playoffs regardless of how they're used now.

You don't bank stamina but you do wear guys out playing them that much for extended periods of time.

Except the sharks has never added minutes to the players in the playoffs. If a defensemen played 22 minutes in the regular season, he played 22 minutes in the playoffs.

I would rather my top defensemen play 25 minutes in the regular season and then 25 minutes + in the playoffs. Then have to see the likes of tennyson and dillon play 16 minutes a night.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I disagree. You don't condition for a 10k run by running a couple of miles three times a week.

Also the closests we've gotten to that type of usage was Dan Boyle who maxed at 28 min a game when we were getting destroyed by the blues. Dan Boyle was already declining at that point. The two years we made the conference finals he averaged 26-27. This year we have burns vlasic and martin who should all be able to run that much ice time. When vlasic is averaging 21 min in playoffs there is a problem.

Well outside that the marathon reference is a horrible comparable, Chicago did this last year with their guys. Keith played 25 in the regular and 31 in the playoffs. Seabrook went from 23 to 26. Hjalmarsson went from 22 to 26. Oduya went from 21 to 25. Extending their time during the regular season only serves to prevent your depth guys from improving, increases the odds that your top guys get hurt, and will likely leave them in a more tired state than their opponents come playoff time. That and it's just not necessary this early in the season.

 

[Barrie22]

Well outside that the marathon reference is a horrible comparable, Chicago did this last year with their guys. Keith played 25 in the regular and 31 in the playoffs. Seabrook went from 23 to 26. Hjalmarsson went from 22 to 26. Oduya went from 21 to 25. Extending their time during the regular season only serves to prevent your depth guys from improving, increases the odds that your top guys get hurt, and will likely leave them in a more tired state than their opponents come playoff time. That and it's just not necessary this early in the season.

So now the sharks fit more along with the top teams ice time for the defense. Burns this season is around 26, vlasic is around 23, braun is right there also.

No more top guys getting 20 minutes and the bottom pairing guys getting 16.

 

[do0glas]

Well outside that the marathon reference is a horrible comparable, Chicago did this last year with their guys. Keith played 25 in the regular and 31 in the playoffs. Seabrook went from 23 to 26. Hjalmarsson went from 22 to 26. Oduya went from 21 to 25. Extending their time during the regular season only serves to prevent your depth guys from improving, increases the odds that your top guys get hurt, and will likely leave them in a more tired state than their opponents come playoff time. That and it's just not necessary this early in the season.

lol pointless line about my analogy. Which is true btw. If I want to do a half marathon I gotta eventually train to run that far. Which means I gotta do it multiple times before the big show. Same with playing in reg season.

You keep saying they'll be tired. They'll get injured. Playing 25 a night in reg season compared to 20 doesn't increase injury risk by any significant percentage. But if you have some fact behind that I'd like to see it.

The sharks only increased ice time significantly Boyle went from25 a night to 28 in 2011-12 but vlasic never played more than 25 and one time his ice time went down.

The ice times you listed are all more than what the sharks have ever done.

 

[Levie]

lol pointless line about my analogy. Which is true btw. If I want to do a half marathon I gotta eventually train to run that far. Which means I gotta do it multiple times before the big show. Same with playing in reg season.

You keep saying they'll be tired. They'll get injured. Playing 25 a night in reg season compared to 20 doesn't increase injury risk by any significant percentage. But if you have some fact behind that I'd like to see it.

The sharks only increased ice time significantly Boyle went from25 a night to 28 in 2011-12 but vlasic never played more than 25 and one time his ice time went down.

The ice times you listed are all more than what the sharks have ever done.

Questionable reference. Most ultra marathon runners (that aren't professionals) don't run the distance they are running in the race to train. Shorter runs 4-5 times per week is better for training. Once you get to a certain distance it's all mental. If you can run a marathon you can run a 50k.

So if you're training for a 100 miler your training will consist of around 3 2 hour runs a week and one 3-4 hour run. Your body gets too beat up before the race if you train too hard.

Edit: and yes, you can run a 10k race only running 3 miles at a time to train 5-6 days a week. Source: have done.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

lol pointless line about my analogy. Which is true btw. If I want to do a half marathon I gotta eventually train to run that far. Which means I gotta do it multiple times before the big show. Same with playing in reg season.

You keep saying they'll be tired. They'll get injured. Playing 25 a night in reg season compared to 20 doesn't increase injury risk by any significant percentage. But if you have some fact behind that I'd like to see it.

The sharks only increased ice time significantly Boyle went from25 a night to 28 in 2011-12 but vlasic never played more than 25 and one time his ice time went down.

The ice times you listed are all more than what the sharks have ever done.

It's horrible because the playoffs are not a single instance like a 10k. You're not training for a one-off. You're training for what is hopefully a significant length of time. You're also not going to use 82 instances to train for roughly 23 instances of a 10k.

It doesn't even matter that the Sharks have never significantly increased ice time on their guys for the playoffs. The recent championship teams all have this trend of lower regular season time compared to the playoffs. It's unnecessary. An increased risk of injury the more you play is common sense. Significant or not, that's true. The real concern is what their level of play is going to be when they're playing those lengths of time for that much of the season come playoff time when their competition is going to be fresher having not done that.

 

[do0glas]

It's horrible because the playoffs are not a single instance like a 10k. You're not training for a one-off. You're training for what is hopefully a significant length of time. You're also not going to use 82 instances to train for roughly 23 instances of a 10k.

It doesn't even matter that the Sharks have never significantly increased ice time on their guys for the playoffs. The recent championship teams all have this trend of lower regular season time compared to the playoffs. It's unnecessary. An increased risk of injury the more you play is common sense. Significant or not, that's true. The real concern is what their level of play is going to be when they're playing those lengths of time for that much of the season come playoff time when their competition is going to be fresher having not done that.

Dude you're so far off the mark. In recent playoffs the sharks didn't increase ice time at all. The freshness meant nothing. The ice times you are alluding too are more than sharks have done in RS EVER post lock out. Hammer at 23 is more than vlasic has ever done regular season.

Top defenders play top minutes. If they can't saving them in the reg season for extra freshness won't matter. Please give me an example of this.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Dude you're so far off the mark. In recent playoffs the sharks didn't increase ice time at all. The freshness meant nothing. The ice times you are alluding too are more than sharks have done in RS EVER post lock out. Hammer at 23 is more than vlasic has ever done regular season.

Top defenders play top minutes. If they can't saving them in the reg season for extra freshness won't matter. Please give me an example of this.

The freshness meant nothing because it wasn't utilized but that's not the point of contention here. The point with freshness is when you utilize those top players through 82 games of a season at that clip then do it in the playoffs against teams with similar top players that didn't play 82 games of top minutes and are only doing it in the playoffs, they're going to be more likely to maintain a higher level of play because they won't be as worn out by playing those heavy minutes for so long.

The guys the Sharks have can definitely play those minutes in the playoffs if the coach determines to use them as such. McLellan not doing it doesn't mean that they're incapable. The championship teams of recent times show it's not necessary to play those guys that long during the season. And you're not going to get these athletes prepared for an April, May, and hopefully June time of playing those minutes by playing them that much in November. You want to run them like that in February or March, then fine I can see that. But not now because it won't mean anything come playoff time except more miles on their bodies and more used than playoff competition in which even the slightest edge in certain things can matter.

 

[do0glas]

The freshness meant nothing because it wasn't utilized but that's not the point of contention here. The point with freshness is when you utilize those top players through 82 games of a season at that clip then do it in the playoffs against teams with similar top players that didn't play 82 games of top minutes and are only doing it in the playoffs, they're going to be more likely to maintain a higher level of play because they won't be as worn out by playing those heavy minutes for so long.

The guys the Sharks have can definitely play those minutes in the playoffs if the coach determines to use them as such. McLellan not doing it doesn't mean that they're incapable. The championship teams of recent times show it's not necessary to play those guys that long during the season. And you're not going to get these athletes prepared for an April, May, and hopefully June time of playing those minutes by playing them that much in November. You want to run them like that in February or March, then fine I can see that. But not now because it won't mean anything come playoff time except more miles on their bodies and more used than playoff competition in which even the slightest edge in certain things can matter.

I'm not talking about playing these guys 28-30 min a night in RS. Im talking about keeping burns around 25-27 and vlasic/martin 23-25. Then they should see a bump to 28-30 and 25-27 respectively. But my point is we've never really done that. Maybe Boyle but vlasic is always capping out at 21-22 for the season and then not bumping that in the playoffs. I don't want to see Dillon, Colin white, Tennyson, Murray Hannan types more than 14 a night. That's all

 

[Barrie22]

The freshness meant nothing because it wasn't utilized but that's not the point of contention here. The point with freshness is when you utilize those top players through 82 games of a season at that clip then do it in the playoffs against teams with similar top players that didn't play 82 games of top minutes and are only doing it in the playoffs, they're going to be more likely to maintain a higher level of play because they won't be as worn out by playing those heavy minutes for so long.

The guys the Sharks have can definitely play those minutes in the playoffs if the coach determines to use them as such. McLellan not doing it doesn't mean that they're incapable. The championship teams of recent times show it's not necessary to play those guys that long during the season. And you're not going to get these athletes prepared for an April, May, and hopefully June time of playing those minutes by playing them that much in November. You want to run them like that in February or March, then fine I can see that. But not now because it won't mean anything come playoff time except more miles on their bodies and more used than playoff competition in which even the slightest edge in certain things can matter.

The championship teams players already start at a higher starting point from regular season play going into the playoffs. Going from 25 minutes regular season (keith the one you referenced) to 28 minutes in the playoffs is a lot easier to do then going from 22 minutes regular season to 28 minutes playoffs.

 

[Juxtaposer]

I didn't get to watch the game today but I gotta say, advanced statistics really have not on our side during this road trip. It's great that we're pulling out wins and all but I'd hate for it to be short lived. If we can "unsustainable" our ways to a cup, I'm all for it. But that's pretty unlikely considering all sorts of unsustainability we've seen collapse explosively in the last 3-4 years.

Here's the thing: the Sharks' Corsi isn't great, but their scoring chance for% is wonderful.

 

[hohosaregood]

Here's the thing: the Sharks' Corsi isn't great, but their scoring chance for% is wonderful.

I noticed that, it's kind of ridiculous how many scoring chances they're getting right now. I'm kind of conflicted about it overall, low corsi% but the eye test, the scoring chances against and the hextally seems to show that we keep chances to the outside; then we have also have a pretty high scoring chance for rate. We've heard talks from the low corsi teams about how they justify it by saying they get the dangerous shots off/through but I'm not sure if they've been tracking scoring chances rate that well before this year(honestly too lazy to check) so I can't really say if what we're doing is different or not.

 

[spintops]

Here's the thing: the Sharks' Corsi isn't great, but their scoring chance for% is wonderful.

Was it the opposite last year? I remember the sharks just throwing the puck on net, would outshoot the opponent a lot of games but lose. Seemed like real scoring chances were a part of that.

 

[do0glas]

I really hate corsi. Since it's including blocked and missed shots.

When you just look at shots% there is a drop off from 52 ish to 48 ish percent. So we are getting shots through. Our goal differential is good too. 1.75 GA/60 with a 930 sv%

I think we are doing well and will get better even.

 

[OffSydes]

Didn't the Shorks out corsi the entire reverse sweep playoff series ?

 

[Juxtaposer]

Didn't the Shorks out corsi the entire reverse sweep playoff series ?

Ahhhh, nope.