15 games in, your view on the Canes

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We are now 15 games into the season, close to 20% of the season gone. I know there's still 80% of the season to play, but it seems like they are who we thought they were, no?

Key "regular" metrics:

Record: 6 - 9 - 0
Standings: 7th in the Metro, 14th in the East, 25th in the NHL.
GF / G:: 2.00 (28th in NHL)
GA / GP: 2.87 (23rd in NHL)
PP%: 11.5% (28th in NHL)
PK%: 79.4% (17th in NHL)
SF/GP: 31.0 (7th best in NHL)
SA/GP: 25.5 (2nd best in NHL)
FO%: 53.7% (2nd best in NHL)
SH %: 6.5% (28th in NHL)
Hits: 29th in NHL
Blocks: 30th in NHL
Missed Shots: 4th (most) in NHL
GVA: 13th (most) in NHL
TKA: 2nd (best) in NHL
Minor Penalties: 2nd (best) in the NHL
Save %: 0.888 (27th in NHL).

So they are good at taking a lot of shots, good at not giving up a lot of shots, good at faceoffs, good at takeaways, good at not taking penalties, and bad at pretty much everything else. I asked this in the GDT thread, but it might be lost in the weeds. It would be great if SG or some other advanced stat guy could look at the advanced stats and see what they conclude on the team and players.

So is there any reason for optimism for the rest of the way? Or is what we see, what we get?

Click to read more...

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

7-10th pick in the draft

better than last year, steadily but slowly improving, big shakeup this offseason skews that curve, depending on what happens with staal and ward


i will say, ward's play has made me want to re-sign him for something below $5mil

 

[Carolinas Identity*]

Better than last year, but still a ways to go

 

[Unsustainable]

We've had better scoring chances and got a few more goals. But that's the only reason we are slightly better then last year.

Our goal scorers aren't scoring.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

We've had better scoring chances and got a few more goals. But that's the only reason we are slightly better then last year.

Our goal scorers aren't scoring.

Not really. The Canes had 36 goals through 15 games last year and have 30 goals through 15 games this year (if I did the math right)

 

[VAcaniac]

I'd say about what I expected, if not a little better. We are steadily improving.

I am really excited about our D corps going forward. Who woulda thunk the Canes could actually have a half decent D one day?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I'm curious why people are saying "better than last year" or "improving"? Yes, OCTOBER was better than October of last year, but based on the whole season, the PK so far is worse, the PP is worse, the scoring is worse, the goalie SV% is worse, the SH% is worse and right now, they are on pace to end the season with 65 points and the 5th worst record in the league.

Last year, they ended with 71 points and the 5th worse record in the league. Unless you are assuming they are going to turn it on at some point, this doesn't seem like it's much better than last year's season on the whole.

 

[bleedgreen]

They're who we thought they were. Or worse possibly. 3rd-8th pick.

Interesting deadline coming, as we are unlikely to be in the hunt.

 

[HisIceness]

We badly need help on the PP. That's all I got. Maybe if they could pull off a 9 game winning streak a la Spring of '09 maybe we might find ourselves in the hunt for a Wild-Card spot. Otherwise here comes yet another top 10 pick.

 

[Unsustainable]

I'm curious why people are saying "better than last year" or "improving"? Yes, OCTOBER was better than October of last year, but based on the whole season, the PK so far is worse, the PP is worse, the scoring is worse, the goalie SV% is worse, the SH% is worse and right now, they are on pace to end the season with 65 points and the 5th worst record in the league.

Last year, they ended with 71 points and the 5th worse record in the league. Unless you are assuming they are going to turn it on at some point, this doesn't seem like it's much better than last year's season on the whole.

Eye test?

Don't know.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

They're who we thought they were. Or worse possibly. 3rd-8th pick.

AND WE LET 'EM OFF THE HOOK!!!!! a

 

[Novacane]

More offensively inept than I anticipated. Further regression throughout the roster save a few people. Boring, snoozefest hockey. Another wasted season.

I wish I was joking

 

[TheOllieC]

Absolutely atrocious offense and below average goaltending, so about as expected. The young defensive depth has been a nice surprise. I would expect them to pick around 4 to 6.

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think Peter's system is keeping them more disciplined. Passing is sloppy at times but seems to have improved over time. They're doing a few of the fundamental things better (FO, TKA, less penalties) but the lack of scoring is alarming. I'm not sure who to blame when an entire team is snake bit.

On a more subjective note, Jordan Staal has really disappointed me. At one point he was one of my favorite players in the league. I loved his style of play pre-hurricanes. He seemed as good as Eric but with even more flash and power. In my mind, his point totals would only go up from his days in Pittsburgh as soon as he averaged his time on the top 2 lines but damn was I wrong. I keep rooting for him but it's getting tough.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think these next 8 games will all but make or break the season (in terms of staying in the hunt). They only play 2 teams out of 8 that are over .500 and play 6 of the 8 games (including the 2 against teams over .500) at home. If they can't do well in this stretch, then it's likely all she wrote, because after those 8, they have the Rangers, Coyotes, Canadiens, Devils and Stars.

Here are the next 8:
Home vs. Wild: Over .500 team
Home vs. Flyers: Under .500 team
Home vs. Ducks: Under .500 team
Home vs. Leafs: Under .500 team
Home vs. Kings: Over .500 team
Away vs. Flyers: Under .500 team
Home vs. Oilers: Under .500 team
Away vs. Sabres: Under .500 team

 

[The Faulker 27]

I think these next 8 games will all but make or break the season (in terms of staying in the hunt). They only play 2 teams out of 8 that are over .500 and play 6 of the 8 games (including the 2 against teams over .500) at home. If they can't do well in this stretch, then it's likely all she wrote, because after those 8, they have the Rangers, Coyotes, Canadiens, Devils and Stars.

Here are the next 8:
Home vs. Wild: Over .500 team
Home vs. Flyers: Under .500 team
Home vs. Ducks: Under .500 team
Home vs. Leafs: Under .500 team
Home vs. Kings: Over .500 team
Away vs. Flyers: Under .500 team
Home vs. Oilers: Under .500 team
Away vs. Sabres: Under .500 team

It's not likely to change given the continued mediocrity of this team, but if they continue to grab picks 5-7 what are their chances of ever getting elite talent? We've had some good picks in this range but not franchise changing. Yet anyway. I want them to win as much as the next guy but somethings got to give. When is it time to tank and roll the dice on a lower pick?

I'm a little cranky this morning. It's not time to be talking tank-mode, however, insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results, etc etc, and all that. Ok, they did change coaches and GM.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

It's not likely to change given the continued mediocrity of this team, but if they continue to grab picks 5-7 what are their chances of ever getting elite talent? We've had some good picks in this range but not franchise changing. Yet anyway. I want them to win as much as the next guy but somethings got to give. When is it time to tank and roll the dice on a lower pick?.

One problem now, is that the first 3 picks are now determined by the lottery, not just the 1st. So if you tank and end up dead last you only have a 20% chance of drafting 1st overall and could easily end up picking 4th.

The Canes, I think, are set on defense down the road and if they can get solid goaltending, the team should be able to be competitive even with out "elite" talent up front. Take a look at the LA Kings. They really only had a single top 2 pick and it was Doughty. They made a lot of smart picks after that and have guys that have contributed (I think 13 of their 22 players on their stanley cup team they drafted, or something like that). Then once they started building something, they made some smart trades to acquire the necessary pieces (J Williams, Carter, etc..). That's what the Canes need to do and they should have a lot of picks (depending on what happens with this deadline) in the next 2 drafts to do that. Unfortunately, that means a couple more lean years, but if that's what it takes, I'm ok with that IF there is truly a light at the end of the tunnel. That's the biggest beef I had with JR is that there seemed to be a lot of treading water and no real plan for the future.

Skinner and especially Lindholm really need to step up, and quickly though. Can't get this little from a #7 and #5 pick.

 

[A Star is Burns]

They can certainly try to be competitive now early in the year and dump some guys at the deadline and play nothing but rookies and fall down the standings. Not that hard to only win a couple of your last 20 games if you're sure you're out of it. Bring up every marginal player in the organization after the deadline if you've purged and you can plummet. Plus, there's not really quite as much of a premium at finishing at the very bottom this year with the way the lottery is. Still better odds, but more of a crapshoot than ever.

I think they'll be relatively competitive over those next 8 games, as I think this team can be competitive with most, but will usually still end up losing to the good teams because of lack of depth, scoring, special teams, etc. Their style of play keeps it close or seemingly in reach a lot.

 

[Joe McGrath]

They still suck. To the surprise of no one.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

It's not likely to change given the continued mediocrity of this team, but if they continue to grab picks 5-7 what are their chances of ever getting elite talent?

I would take Anze Kopitar, who was picked at 11 and led his team to two Stanley Cups, over Nail Yakupov, who was drafted 1st -- if I could surround him with guys who fit the system.

We've had some good picks in this range but not franchise changing. Yet anyway. I want them to win as much as the next guy but somethings got to give. When is it time to tank and roll the dice on a lower pick?

It's never time to tank, now the least of all with the changes to the draft that are upcoming. Because tanking never gives you guaranteed results, not ever. Sure, Eichel is a great player. So was Alexandre Daigle, until he hit NHL ice.

When a team shows effort and improvement, they have some hope of keeping fans interested, and more importantly, they build the right culture, shift by shift, no matter who comes on to the ice. That's what the Canes need to do now.

I'm a little cranky this morning. It's not time to be talking tank-mode, however, insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results, etc etc, and all that. Ok, they did change coaches and GM.

The real question is: are they changing the culture? Too early to tell. I think they're doing the right things, but we won't know until we know.

 

[Unsustainable]

This teams core is still built around JRs players.

Till that is fixed, we won't see what RF is building, other than big mobile Dmen so far.

 

[VAcaniac]

Even these upcoming games are deceivingly easy. Toronto is playing better and just beat Dallas twice in 8 days. Buffalo has won 5 of their last 7. Anaheim has been getting better all year.

Should be interesting regardless though...

 

[drganon]

Could be worse.

 

[RodTheBawd]

I'd be lying if said I wasn't a bit concerned with Peters. Where is this "opening" of the offense that he talked about in the offseason?

Don't get me wrong, we still lack true offensive playmakers, but it's not like some of these guys don't know how to score...

 

[Joe McGrath]

I'd be lying if said I wasn't a bit concerned with Peters. Where is this "opening" of the offense that he talked about in the offseason?

Don't get me wrong, we still lack true offensive playmakers, but it's not like some of these guys don't know how to score...

They're possessing the puck and getting shots. They just can't finish. That's pretty impossible for a head coach to fix. Skinner hit the post twice against the Rangers. The PP is a different story. That's butt, and needs to be fixed immediately.