Post-Game Talk: 10/8 - Preseason #7 BRUINS 1 Philadelphia 0 F/OT

[PlayMakers]

For what it's worth, looking at some basic possession stats from the game

-The overall game was even on corsi, flyers had a slight advantage in fenwick/shots on goal
-On D, Krug and O'Gara had positive corsi, ehrhoff and Carlo were both even, Chara was a little under, and Killer had really bad corsi (the only Bruin you can say this about)
-The bottom two lines had better possession stats, but the top two lines were all just under 50%.
- Interesting that Philly was basically the opposite of Boston. The top two lines for them had good stats, but the Bruins preyed on their bottom line and pairing guys. MacDonald was especially victimized.
- Interesting to see people being meh on the performances from Nash and Moore, the guys were on the ice for only one shot on goal against total. Much better than 4th lines of yesteryear

How do missed nets factor in those stats? I think about Marchand's partial breakaway where he put it over the net. Spooner missed point blank... Ehrhoff had that shot in the low slot that went over the net that was set up by Spooner.

I guess I didn't feel like our top6 was outplayed, so trying to account for the difference.

 

[xStanleyCupsFor]

You won't find many I don't think who don't appreciate what McQuaid has done for this team over the years.

And I agree he was playing his best hockey as a Bruin prior to being a victim of a cheap shot from Sill.

But like Campbell and Thornton before him, it's pretty clear that his time has come.

Lack of skating ability, and that concussion look like they have done him in as an NHL D-man.

Yeah the concussion really set him back. But I'm not ready to write him off just yet. Let's see how he starts off the season, preferably as a #6 D. Nice to see O'Gara and Carlo really pushing though. It's only preseason, so we need to keep that in mind. But I already feel more comfortable with them back there than with Morrow or Chiller at any time last year. We shall see how it shakes out.

 

[pemulis]

How do missed nets factor in those stats? I think about Marchand's partial breakaway where he put it over the net. Spooner missed point blank... Ehrhoff had that shot in the low slot that went over the net that was set up by Spooner.

I guess I didn't feel like our top6 was outplayed, so trying to account for the difference.

Corsi is shots taken (including misses and blocks). The problem with Corsi for me is that it doesn't take into account quality of shots. My opinion of tonight suggests that the Bruins top lines had a higher quality of shots.

 

[BluesTraveler]

How do missed nets factor in those stats? I think about Marchand's partial breakaway where he put it over the net. Spooner missed point blank... Ehrhoff had that shot in the low slot that went over the net that was set up by Spooner.

I guess I didn't feel like our top6 was outplayed, so trying to account for the difference.

It attempts to record any shot that is directed at the net, so ones that go wide and such are counted. But like hits/SOG there is an element of subjectivity to it so who knows which ones get counted and which do not.

And the stats don't exactly point to outplayed. I mean, I'm pretty sure Marchand was above 50% corsi for before OT started, then during 3 on 3 Philly had the first surge and Marchand ended up looking below "average" for the night. Philly also had a surge of shot attempts in the last two minutes that are really what swayed the numbers in favor of their top lines over the Bruins top lines.

 

[JCRO]

Dude I been pumped about Czarnik ever since last season and been advocating he should be making the starting roster in the last few weeks....

This kid just has "it". Small but a fireball , a leader, skilled.

Just need to keep building on his body... I hope he becomes as Mark Recchi through hard work at the Gym

Thank you! Jeez. I thought I was watching a different game. How could you not focus on him? And Carlo. Carlo held his own very well.

 

[wintersej]

Corsi is shots taken (including misses and blocks). The problem with Corsi for me is that it doesn't take into account quality of shots. My opinion of tonight suggests that the Bruins top lines had a higher quality of shots.

Yes, shot quality is not included in Corsi/Fenwick stats and Corsi/Fenwick for a single game doesn't hold a lot of value. You wouldn't assume that Mike Trout must be awful after one 0 for 5 game.

1) Corsi/Fenwick as a basis for estimating possession really only holds up with larger sample sizes
2) While shot quality is assumed to mostly even out over large sample sizes, it certainly won't in an individual game. If you look at teams like Anaheim (because they have great shooters) or the Bruins (Claude's system keeping shots to the outside) that outperform their Corsi consistently, if becomes clear that more work needs to go into shot quality.
3) In a single game one shift can really skew these kind of shot metrics. The team can get stuck in its own zone for a long shift through no fault of an individual player. Sample size is so important with this stuff.

 

[pemulis]

Yes, shot quality is not included in Corsi/Fenwick stats and Corsi/Fenwick for a single game doesn't hold a lot of value. You wouldn't assume that Mike Trout must be awful after one 0 for 5 game.

1) Corsi/Fenwick as a basis for estimating possession really only holds up with larger sample sizes
2) While shot quality is assumed to mostly even out over large sample sizes, it certainly won't in an individual game. If you look at teams like Anaheim (because they have great shooters) or the Bruins (Claude's system keeping shots to the outside) that outperform their Corsi consistently, if becomes clear that more work needs to go into shot quality.
3) In a single game one shift can really skew these kind of shot metrics. The team can get stuck in its own zone for a long shift through no fault of an individual player. Sample size is so important with this stuff.

Yup. I agree. One game is one data point that influences a larger trend. My response was discussing the corsi of this past game.

 

[bruinmann77]

The Bruins at this point will be making a big mistake moving Spooner

 

[DKH]

How do missed nets factor in those stats? I think about Marchand's partial breakaway where he put it over the net. Spooner missed point blank... Ehrhoff had that shot in the low slot that went over the net that was set up by Spooner.

I guess I didn't feel like our top6 was outplayed, so trying to account for the difference.

We had 4 sears second row behind net and openly talked how they were going upstairs on Mason and misses a dozen shots over the net many good chances

It reminded me of game 4 Cup Finals vs Crawfotd where they could have wom 10-5 but were trying to follow scouting report to much glove side high - Marchand missed winning it in OT by doing this when 1/2 net was open and Seabrooke scores a minute later

 

[Fossy21]

Might have just been an aberration? I have seen a fair amount of O'Gara over the last couple of years and I have always felt that his puck retrieval and outlet passes were two of his biggest strengths.

I remember when that was posted: it was just after I had noticed O'Gara looking really slow (and this was not long after someone pointed out it was nice to have a D with #44 who had wheels, so it stood out more). Don't think it was at the end of a long shift or anything either, so I reacted. Can't say I noticed him being slow the rest of the game, though, and I was impressed with a lot of his decision-making.

 

[Ladyfan]

yess exactly...the skills, vision, speed that Spooner has is very good, it's all about confidence. If he plays with confidence, those things shine and I see little flashes of Savard, especially on the PP.

Just gotta keep his confidence up and I think he will be a real player.

I agree with this.

Spooner is very creative . I hope the B's keep him around.

 

[Ladyfan]

That's why my guy McQuaid is on this team

Guy would have pounced on that clown

THIS ^ I would hate if they traded Quaider.

 

[pierre gagnon*]

In the last month McQuaid was not very good at all last year and is no better now. His gap control, puck handling and pivoting were subpar for his salary. We have Kevan and that makes him expedable and the kids need ice the same way Claude groomed the present core. Chiller can take his spot, Morrow can go to and Erhoff we have Liles, cannot have so many duplicates. Czarnik would still be hurt with him out there, same as Savard. We had a tougher team then and he still got a cheap shot, means little to deter idiots. We all like to see Gudas pay for it but we had Backes, Chara, Kevan.

The game on dee is about speed and fast decisions and that is not Quaiders game, same reason Seids is gone. If its the best players as they say that make the team and make the team better then he is not one of them. Or they all lied in the media. We cannot keep hanging on to guys because of 2011 performance. Its a business and time to refresh and not become Carolina but follow what the Hawks do, not letting emotion into it.

 

[Blowfish]

The Bruins at this point will be making a big mistake moving Spooner

100% agree...

 

[Blowfish]

In the last month McQuaid was not very good at all last year and is no better now. His gap control, puck handling and pivoting were subpar for his salary. We have Kevan and that makes him expedable and the kids need ice the same way Claude groomed the present core. Chiller can take his spot, Morrow can go to and Erhoff we have Liles, cannot have so many duplicates. Czarnik would still be hurt with him out there, same as Savard. We had a tougher team then and he still got a cheap shot, means little to deter idiots. We all like to see Gudas pay for it but we had Backes, Chara, Kevan.

The game on dee is about speed and fast decisions and that is not Quaiders game, same reason Seids is gone. If its the best players as they say that make the team and make the team better then he is not one of them. Or they all lied in the media. We cannot keep hanging on to guys because of 2011 performance. Its a business and time to refresh and not become Carolina but follow what the Hawks do, not letting emotion into it.

The NHL has changed...much like the NFL, NHL has been challenged by a core of NHL players, lawyers, and governments for player safety. With that, players and owners have been asked to keep player safety top mind. Toughness is a thing of the past. I'm all for removing fights/bad hits, I have friends and family who have been severely concussed. Not good / very sad. Savard is perfect example.

Really hope Czarnik is ok...the Gudas's of the world should be punished to the extreme.

 

[Over the volcano]

The Bruins at this point will be making a big mistake moving Spooner

Always depends on the return.

Spooner is amazing when there is some space on the ice, but mediocre 5 on 5.

 

[ODAAT]

Always depends on the return.

Spooner is amazing when there is some space on the ice, but mediocre 5 on 5.

and way too inconsistent on the dot

has to be the right return for me, while I don`t actively shop him, I also don`t let him block a deal that would result in an upgrade in an area the B`s need one

 

[Dennis Bonvie]

How do missed nets factor in those stats? I think about Marchand's partial breakaway where he put it over the net. Spooner missed point blank... Ehrhoff had that shot in the low slot that went over the net that was set up by Spooner.

I guess I didn't feel like our top6 was outplayed, so trying to account for the difference.

Though he missed the shot, Ehrhoff's patience there was remarkable. Especially for a defenseman.

 

[bb_fan]

He was, best stretch of hockey he had as a Bruin IMO.

Problem being that was before his concussion. He hasn't been the same player since. Brutal down the stretch last year, and vastly outperformed in this year's preseason, albeit small sample size. Guys with more talent than him have taken quite a awhile to get back to where they were pre-concussion. Do the Bruins have the luxury of waiting for that to happen.

Vastly out performed???? By who exactly?

The team is stacked essentially with bottom pairing D-men and young prospects (green, inexperienced kids).

Chara is being asked to do too much at this point and looks poor because he's still being asked to be a minute eating top pair #1 d man which he really isnt. He can't cover for other people mistakes anymore.

Toss in the fact that this team is softer than double ply northern quilted when it comes to being physically aggressive, in your face, reactionary or the instigators of such play.

The on ice leadership, the heart and sole guys, the lead by example guys when it comes to physical play and sticking up for each other, has been eroding each year.

McQuaid is one of the few guys left who brings that.

As much as they need top end skill players, they need guys like McQuaid too.

And no, his play hasn't been bad for a bottom pairing guy, and if the expectation is that he be better handle that, it's time to re-evaluate expectations here I think.

 

[Ladyfan]

Vastly out performed???? By who exactly?

The team is stacked essentially with bottom pairing D-men and young prospects (green, inexperienced kids).

Chara is being asked to do too much at this point and looks poor because he's still being asked to be a minute eating top pair #1 d man which he really isnt. He can't cover for other people mistakes anymore.

Toss in the fact that this team is softer than double ply northern quilted when it comes to being physically aggressive, in your face, reactionary or the instigators of such play.

The on ice leadership, the heart and sole guys, the lead by example guys when it comes to physical play and sticking up for each other, has been eroding each year.

McQuaid is one of the few guys left who brings that.

As much as they need top end skill players, they need guys like McQuaid too.

And no, his play hasn't been bad for a bottom pairing guy, and if the expectation is that he be better handle that, it's time to re-evaluate expectations here I think.

Thank you.

Great post

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Vastly out performed???? By who exactly?

The team is stacked essentially with bottom pairing D-men and young prospects (green, inexperienced kids).

Chara is being asked to do too much at this point and looks poor because he's still being asked to be a minute eating top pair #1 d man which he really isnt. He can't cover for other people mistakes anymore.

Toss in the fact that this team is softer than double ply northern quilted when it comes to being physically aggressive, in your face, reactionary or the instigators of such play.

The on ice leadership, the heart and sole guys, the lead by example guys when it comes to physical play and sticking up for each other, has been eroding each year.

McQuaid is one of the few guys left who brings that.

As much as they need top end skill players, they need guys like McQuaid too.

And no, his play hasn't been bad for a bottom pairing guy, and if the expectation is that he be better handle that, it's time to re-evaluate expectations here I think.

I agree. It's one thing if the defense is good but McQuaid has just as much of a place as Miller here.

 

[BruinDust]

Vastly out performed???? By who exactly?

The team is stacked essentially with bottom pairing D-men and young prospects (green, inexperienced kids).

Chara is being asked to do too much at this point and looks poor because he's still being asked to be a minute eating top pair #1 d man which he really isnt. He can't cover for other people mistakes anymore.

Toss in the fact that this team is softer than double ply northern quilted when it comes to being physically aggressive, in your face, reactionary or the instigators of such play.

The on ice leadership, the heart and sole guys, the lead by example guys when it comes to physical play and sticking up for each other, has been eroding each year.

McQuaid is one of the few guys left who brings that.

As much as they need top end skill players, they need guys like McQuaid too.

And no, his play hasn't been bad for a bottom pairing guy, and if the expectation is that he be better handle that, it's time to re-evaluate expectations here I think.

Your right, time for you to re-evaluate your expectations, or lack thereof. The kids and even veterans like Liles and Ehrhof have been very good thus far. I know their rating in NHL 17 isn't very high and understand why you think they aren't any better than McQuaid whose probably rated higher in the game.

But hey, if you think keeping around a slow, injury prone D-man with 3 years left on a almost-albatross contract, whose last 20 odd games have been borderline AHL caliber, than by all means.

I appreciate McQuaid and the intangibles like sticking up for teammates, which is really the only thing that sets him apart from guys like O'Gara and Carlo who can both play physical and defend well, yet can also skate fairly well and move the puck.

People whine all summer how Kevan Miller and McQuaid are redundant. Well if even one of Carlo or O'Gara are ready, he just became more redundant.

And people need to get over this "bottom-pairing" stuff. You need 6 capable D-men, it's not like you can effectively shelter a D-man and keep him under 10 mins a game. Even bottom-pairing guys get between 15-18 mins some nights. And based on his last 15 or so regular season games and pre-season, he hasn't been anything close to a capable D-man.

If want a guy strictly for on-ice leadership, heart-and-soul, lead by example, sticking up for teammates, go find a 4th line winger who can do that job. Because having a D-man in your line-up playing 15-18 mins a night who brings this, and only this, isn't going to work in today's game. And I love players like McQuaid but I've accepted the fact that D-men like him are dinosaurs and soon to be extinct like our much beloved enforcer.

 

[BruinDust]

I agree. It's one thing if the defense is good but McQuaid has just as much of a place as Miller here.

Have you watched any of preseason?

I hated the Kevan Miller extension, but right now I'd keep Kevan over McQuaid and it's not even close.

In my world both would be gone.

 

[pierre gagnon*]

Your right, time for you to re-evaluate your expectations, or lack thereof. The kids and even veterans like Liles and Ehrhof have been very good thus far. I know their rating in NHL 17 isn't very high and understand why you think they aren't any better than McQuaid whose probably rated higher in the game.

But hey, if you think keeping around a slow, injury prone D-man with 3 years left on a almost-albatross contract, whose last 20 odd games have been borderline AHL caliber, than by all means.

I appreciate McQuaid and the intangibles like sticking up for teammates, which is really the only thing that sets him apart from guys like O'Gara and Carlo who can both play physical and defend well, yet can also skate fairly well and move the puck.

People whine all summer how Kevan Miller and McQuaid are redundant. Well if even one of Carlo or O'Gara are ready, he just became more redundant.

And people need to get over this "bottom-pairing" stuff. You need 6 capable D-men, it's not like you can effectively shelter a D-man and keep him under 10 mins a game. Even bottom-pairing guys get between 15-18 mins some nights. And based on his last 15 or so regular season games and pre-season, he hasn't been anything close to a capable D-man.

If want a guy strictly for on-ice leadership, heart-and-soul, lead by example, sticking up for teammates, go find a 4th line winger who can do that job. Because having a D-man in your line-up playing 15-18 mins a night who brings this, and only this, isn't going to work in today's game. And I love players like McQuaid but I've accepted the fact that D-men like him are dinosaurs and soon to be extinct like our much beloved enforcer.

Well Said and I cannot agree more. I loved McQuaid, Kelly, Seids and Paille's game in the past but I do plan on being a fan a lot longer then certain players short careers and try not to get blinded by emotion and past glories (fan since 1970). In saying that some may think we are anti-bruin but that could not be further from the truth. The here and now dictates he is not one of the best in camp and if management is honest he needs to move aside. Same way someone else did for him. The Hawks management has it right they are cut throat, calculating and cold. Sorry but its time to move on, especially after they extended Miller the choice was clearly made. McQuaid will not accept a rover role 6/7 guy, he should go to a team like the Oilers and play a bigger role. They are going to have to baby sit Chara this year, that is a sad fact. I do not believe they went and got Backes to be average again, gotta move forward and there will be pain.

 

[bb_fan]

Your right, time for you to re-evaluate your expectations, or lack thereof. The kids and even veterans like Liles and Ehrhof have been very good thus far. I know their rating in NHL 17 isn't very high and understand why you think they aren't any better than McQuaid whose probably rated higher in the game.

But hey, if you think keeping around a slow, injury prone D-man with 3 years left on a almost-albatross contract, whose last 20 odd games have been borderline AHL caliber, than by all means.

I appreciate McQuaid and the intangibles like sticking up for teammates, which is really the only thing that sets him apart from guys like O'Gara and Carlo who can both play physical and defend well, yet can also skate fairly well and move the puck.

People whine all summer how Kevan Miller and McQuaid are redundant. Well if even one of Carlo or O'Gara are ready, he just became more redundant.

And people need to get over this "bottom-pairing" stuff. You need 6 capable D-men, it's not like you can effectively shelter a D-man and keep him under 10 mins a game. Even bottom-pairing guys get between 15-18 mins some nights. And based on his last 15 or so regular season games and pre-season, he hasn't been anything close to a capable D-man.

If want a guy strictly for on-ice leadership, heart-and-soul, lead by example, sticking up for teammates, go find a 4th line winger who can do that job. Because having a D-man in your line-up playing 15-18 mins a night who brings this, and only this, isn't going to work in today's game. And I love players like McQuaid but I've accepted the fact that D-men like him are dinosaurs and soon to be extinct like our much beloved enforcer.

It's deuchey comments like the nhl 17 crap that remind me why I try not post out here much any more.

If you want to add a rookie inexperienced kid to an already poor defense, that's fine go ahead. Just live with the all the mistakes that come with it and the added playing time for other bottom pairing guys, or just keep rolling Chara out for 23 minutes plus each game and see were that gets you.

As for Erhoff, he'll get chewed up here playing under a ton of pressure situations and physical board battling that's going to happen with other teams using an agressive forecheck against a bad d-corp.

As far as forgetting pairings???? I hate to break it to you, but most teams consist of lines based on skill experience and ability.... including the defensemen. And it also usually ties pretty close into salary (which is kind of important in a salary cap league) and playing time.

Why don't you check last years stats on average time on ice for bottom pairing d-men vs top pairing guys on play off teams and see how th as 5 plays out.


Edit: after looking up a couple of teams your toi aren't that far off.