Post-Game Talk: 10/28/14 l Avs Lose In SO To Sharks

[The Kingslayer]

Just realized both our wins were against back ups

 

[henchman21]

As always, Sadowski believes in posting actual full quotes and not the chopped up crap the DP does. I'm sure it will all be in the presser when its uploaded too.

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Rick-Sadowski/Roy-Adversity-part-of-process/188/63512

They win 3 games in a row right now they will be back in the race. I don't think it helps anyone to scoreboard watch in October. Its about what they do and not what others do right now. To say publicly that the season is on the verge of slipping away in October isn't going to do anyone any good.

Nor is it accurate. If they were as successful this year in 1 goal games as they were last year... they would be sitting in the 6-9 range.

For as badly as they have played, they have 5 points in their last 4 games (102.5 point average over 82 games) and are only 3 points out of 8th. 3 points is a very small margin to make up with 72 games remaining, and even smaller when you look at some of the teams ahead of the Avs (Nashville, Vancouver, and Calgary are not nearly as good as their records indicate).

This team really needs 1 more goal a game... it isn't unfair to say that if MacK starts playing better offensively, he can account for a majority of those.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I think it's the idea that they've been putting in poor performances, save a few periods, for most of the year, and are still doing so, but Patty keeps putting a positive spin on it for his young team, instead of giving off a sense of urgency. It's kinda like when Granato would insult the fanbase by acting like they didn't know the team was playing like crap, and it was a big problem. It's not quite there yet with Patty, but it's getting there.

After a certain point, the idea that "we're in every game" or "we had the lead" or "we played our game in the 3rd period" rings a little hollow when you keeping dropping games and leaving points on the table.

The idea that we're only four points out of a wild card spot is misleading too. We see this every year down the stretch when there's a bunch of teams in the mix for the last spot and are only a few points out, but no one ever really seems to gain ground. All the teams just cannibalize all the points from each other, and no one can jump up the ladder high enough.

They pretty much need to be in a playoff spot by around Thanksgiving or it will be very unlikely they can make it. Sportsnet in an interview with Chiarelli last week mentioned that only 5 teams since 05-06 have made the playoffs who were four points out or more on November 1st. Though I think they meant to say December 1st because they had been talking about American Thanksgiving being the milestone day, but who knows.

A couple teams pulled it off last year, but they have to avoid putting themselves in that position. It's kinda time for some urgency I think. The positive spin doesn't seem to be working, because they still starting games poorly and generally not playing for most of the games.

In the full quotes he's more even in his words. Its that DP spin on it too, ya know.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Just realized both our wins were against back ups

Usually they channel Roy against us, so this isn't exactly a bad thing.

 

[Freudian]

2008-09: .421 P%
2010-11: .415 P%
2012-13: .406 P%
This season: .400 P%

Of course we can argue that Avs probably should have gotten a few more points with better luck and smarter play with a lead, but with the current situation being what it is the team should play with urgency and desperation. That's not what we saw against Jets and yesterday. It's like Avs getting points in these games makes it easier to avoid acknowledging how many problems the team has.

 

[InjuredChoker]

They pretty much need to be in a playoff spot by around Thanksgiving or it will be very unlikely they can make it. Sportsnet in an interview with Chiarelli last week mentioned that only 5 teams since 05-06 have made the playoffs who were four points out or more on November 1st. Though I think they meant to say December 1st because they had been talking about American Thanksgiving being the milestone day, but who knows.

Nor is it accurate. If they were as successful this year in 1 goal games as they were last year... they would be sitting in the 6-9 range.

don't like to use the word 'unsustainable' but our record in 1 goal games last year was so, so unsustainable.

october is still little early, but not one team has made the playoffs since 08-09 if they had 16 points or less in the first 20 games. and since 07-08, only team, washington capitals.

not throwing away the season yet or anything but they better be close to 0.5 at the 20 game mark.

 

[Foppa2118]

In the full quotes he's more even in his words. Its that DP spin on it too, ya know.

No, he's definitely not sugar coating it completely. He's making honest critiques too. I feel like that's not giving off enough urgency though by sending those mixed messages. It doesn't matter if they're losing by one goal in close games. Teams rarely lose big anymore, it's always close.

At a certain point he just needs to stand there and say, "this is unacceptable" and let that be the only message. I think in the back of their mind they feel like they're just good enough to pull it off because they did well last year. The same reason they weren't prepared in the pre-season or the beginning of the regular season. That's lead to poor habits.

He doesn't want to put too much pressure on the team. He's managed expectations, and been critical of guys like Jiggy for putting too much blame on them. At a certain point that becomes a disservice though, and takes away too much accountability for poor performances. Part of me wonders if we're at that point.

 

[tigervixxxen]

don't like to use the word 'unsustainable' but our record in 1 goal games last year was so, so unsustainable

People bring this up a lot but I want to know more in context. How do good teams not win one goal games? How did Anaheim, Chicago, Boston, ect do in one goal games last year? What is unsustainable about winning them? Its like saves in baseball, the good teams have them because they win close games. The overall point might be valid but I'd like some comparison to paint the full picture.

Anaheim beat Chicago 1-0 yesterday, was that an unsustainable win for them?

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

He had a pretty long presser today compared to his prior 2 minute ones.

But yeah, doesn't sound like we'll see Winchester in the next few games. Bummer.

"We're not far off, but we have holes in our game."

 

[henchman21]

don't like to use the word 'unsustainable' but our record in 1 goal games last year was so, so unsustainable.

october is still little early, but not one team has made the playoffs since 08-09 if they had 16 points or less in the first 20 games. and since 07-08, only team, washington capitals.

not throwing away the season yet or anything but they better be close to 0.5 at the 20 game mark.

It probably was, but so is this year's 1 goal record... Things tend to balance out and the Avs will start to pick up some of those extra points.

16 points... that shouldn't be too hard. The Avs play the same way they have over the first 10 games and they will be there. I don't think they play that bad over the next 10 games.

 

[InjuredChoker]

avs are 27th in the league in goal differential too and the gap to next one is 4 goals (little more games played works against the avs there, though). so it's not like they've been robbed off when they should've been winning.

they are getting outshot, outchanced, outscored. and not doing well in the standings.

some issues won't be fixed this year but getting few guys on the top 6 going should have this team bouncing back.

 

[henchman21]

avs are 27th in the league in goal differential too and the gap to next one is 4 goals (little more games played works against the avs there, though). so it's not like they've been robbed off when they should've been winning.

they are getting outshot, outchanced, outscored. and not doing well in the standings.

some issues won't be fixed this year but getting few guys on the top 6 going should have this team bouncing back.

I'll go back to my one more goal a game... they find that and this team will be fine (also happens to be the goal differential this year). MacK is the key there. If he gets going, this team will score more. If he stays cold, the team will struggle.

 

[InjuredChoker]

People bring this up a lot but I want to know more in context. How do good teams not win one goal games? How did Anaheim, Chicago, Boston, ect do in one goal games last year? What is unsustainable about winning them? Its like saves in baseball, the good teams have them because they win close games. The overall point might be valid but I'd like some comparison to paint the full picture.

the best one was on old dellow's site that is now down.

good teams win lot of blowout games too. they win 2, 3 and 3+ goal games and so on. they don't win just 1 goal games a ton. i think the avs record of last year in 1-goal games was one of the best in recent decades. and the few times some teams had excellent record in 1 goal games, they came crashing down the following season, and so on. good teams should be expected to have lot of blowout games going their way.

it might have been little misleading on the avs as they pulled the goalie earlier than others and other team got more chances to score than they normally would, and so avs didn't have as many lossesin in 1 goal games.

found this article, though.

those teams you mentioned were 2nd, 27th and 17 in 1-goal games last year, respectively. those stats can be found here.

 

[Freudian]

Colorado Avalanche ‏@Avalanche 3 min

NEWS: Dennis Everberg has been recalled from the Lake Erie Monsters

I wonder if they waived anyone or if Winchester is still on IR?

 

[Avs_19]

I'll go back to my one more goal a game... they find that and this team will be fine (also happens to be the goal differential this year). MacK is the key there. If he gets going, this team will score more. If he stays cold, the team will struggle.

He could score and the team could win while still struggling. Like last night's game, I would've loved a MacKinnon goal and regulation win but it wouldn't give me too much confidence in the team going forward. A win is a win and I'd definitely take it but at some point they need to start playing better as a team.

 

[The Mars Volchenkov]

I wonder if they waived anyone or if Winchester is still on IR?

From listening to Roy's presser, Winchester might be a little while longer. He still has bad days.

 

[Avs_19]

I wonder if they waived anyone or if Winchester is still on IR?

Sounds like we'll be without Winchester still so that's probably it. Could have put Wilson on IR too.

Nice to have the Everbeast back.

 

[henchman21]

He could score and the team could win while still struggling. Like last night's game, I would've loved a MacKinnon goal and regulation win but it wouldn't give me too much confidence in the team going forward. A win is a win and I'd definitely take it but at some point they need to start playing better as a team.

The complexion of games and team play changes dramatically with an extra goal. It isn't as simple as adding the extra goal and having the exact same sort of game otherwise. If MacK plays better, the 2nd line gets going and the PP is better... this elevates the whole team a bit.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I wonder if they waived anyone or if Winchester is still on IR?

Winchester is and Wilson isn't even on IR.

 

[Avs_19]

The complexion of games and team play changes dramatically with an extra goal. It isn't as simple as adding the extra goal and having the exact same sort of game otherwise. If MacK plays better, the 2nd line gets going and the PP is better... this elevates the whole team a bit.

Of course. If MacKinnon (or anyone else) plays better and scores, it could completely change how a game turns out. However, I also don't think it's as simple as you suggested in your earlier post...."I'll go back to my one more goal a game... they find that and this team will be fine". Forget one more goal, they could score three more and they still might not be fine in the long run unless they clean up the play in the defensive zone. We've scored goals and held leads and still had to rely way too much on goaltending in order to get a win.

 

[SuperJoe]

It probably was, but so is this year's 1 goal record... Things tend to balance out and the Avs will start to pick up some of those extra points.

16 points... that shouldn't be too hard. The Avs play the same way they have over the first 10 games and they will be there. I don't think they play that bad over the next 10 games.

Hench I like you, but even with the somewhat easy next 10 games, we will need more than a few lucky bounces to get 16 points.

Edit, oops my bad I thought you meant over the next 10 games not 20

 

[tigervixxxen]

the best one was on old dellow's site that is now down.

good teams win lot of blowout games too. they win 2, 3 and 3+ goal games and so on. they don't win just 1 goal games a ton. i think the avs record of last year in 1-goal games was one of the best in recent decades. and the few times some teams had excellent record in 1 goal games, they came crashing down the following season, and so on. good teams should be expected to have lot of blowout games going their way.

it might have been little misleading on the avs as they pulled the goalie earlier than others and other team got more chances to score than they normally would, and so avs didn't have as many lossesin in 1 goal games.

found this article, though.

those teams you mentioned were 2nd, 27th and 17 in 1-goal games last year, respectively. those stats can be found here.

Thanks for explaining, I see the context better at least. I still see correlation between good teams and winning 1 goal games. Year Chicago won the last cup they were 70% too, won 19 one goal games which over a full season would be more than our 28.

 

[henchman21]

Of course. If MacKinnon (or anyone else) plays better and scores, it could completely change how a game turns out. However, I also don't think it's as simple as you suggested in your earlier post...."I'll go back to my one more goal a game... they find that and this team will be fine". Forget one more goal, they could score three more and they still might not be fine in the long run unless they clean up the play in the defensive zone. We've scored goals and held leads and still had to rely way too much on goaltending in order to get a win.

They will be... in order to get that 1 more goal, they have to start doing a lot of things better than they currently are. A team playing like they are is not just going to magically get another goal and not play any better. MacK plays better and the team plays better, they will get a goal and there will be spill over to other areas... like giving up less shots as getting another goal is usually from having more pressure.

This team simply has too much talent offensively to be getting as little pressure as they are and scoring as few of goals. It will level itself off at some point. If that level off point is a whole goal a game better... this team will have a better than .600 record for the rest of the season.

 

[henchman21]

Hench I like you, but even with the somewhat easy next 10 games, we will need more than a few lucky bounces to get 16 points.

Edit, oops my bad I thought you meant over the next 10 games not 20

The phrasing was after the first 20 games... so over the next 10 games the Avs would only need 8 points. I will be pretty disappointed if they can only manage 8 points over the next 10 games. I'm hoping for 13-14, expecting 11-12.

 

[Foppa2118]

I wonder if they waived anyone or if Winchester is still on IR?

This puts them at 23 with Wilson still on the active roster. When Winchester comes back they'll just swap him with Wilson on the IR.

Not sure why they don't have Wilson on the IR since he'll be out a few weeks. He clearly wasn't going to be ready before the 7 days were up. Must be some kind of technicality in the CBA that benefits them or Wilson somehow. Or maybe he's their new plan for an emergency 3rd goalie.