Post-Game Talk: #1| New York Islanders @ Buttplugs | May 29th | 8:00 PM | F/L 5-2

[MattMartin]

NEW YORK ISLANDERS AT BUTTPLUGS











NEW YORK ISLANDERS (21-8-4) AT BUTTPLUGS (16-8-4)
8PM | TD GARDEN
WATCH: NBC
LISTEN: 88.7FM | 103.9FM | 970AMM




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Preview




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The next prove-the-world-wrong challenge for Barry Trotz and the New York Islanders are the Boston Bruins with their Second Round series beginning Saturday night in front of nearly a full capacity at TD Garden.

The fourth-seeded Islanders upset the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games to move on to the East Division’s final playoff round while the Bruins beat the Washington Capitals in five games after dropping Game 1. Puck drop Saturday goes at 8 p.m. EST.

In eight meetings this season the Islanders got the upper-hand with a 5-2-1 record and went a perfect 4-0 at home. But New York’s three losses to Boston were the three games Taylor Hall and Mike Reilly appeared in, two trade deadline adds who have made Boston a new team.

Hall put up 14 points in 16 regular season games with Boston while Reilly had a career-high 27 points, all of which were assists. The Islanders added some key trade deadline pieces too, as former New Jersey Devils Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac both saw action against Pittsburgh. Palmieri scored three goals (including an overtime winner) in six games, while Zajac picked up the primary assist on New York’s series-winning goal but was healthy scratched in the series’ first five games.

New York Islanders​

Offence isn’t the Islanders’ or Trotz’s mantra, it’s playing sound hockey and strong defence. Scoring 21 goals in six playoff games says the opposite, but let’s be real: New York capitalized on Tristan Jarry’s inability to stop the puck.
In the regular season New York finished 21st with 2.71 goals per game. On the flip side, they were the second with 2.23 goals against. Strong goaltending played a key role, although Trotz has gone to rookie Ilya Sorokin in the post-season.

Sorokin started four games in Round 1 and posted a .943 save percentage.
Up front, Anthony Beauvillier and Jean-Gabriel Pageau led the Isles with seven points each. And get to know Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock, New York’s top pair tasked with shutting down Boston’s top six.

Buttplugs​

In years past Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, and David Pastrnak carried the Bruins’ offence. They still combined for 13 points in Round 1, but the addition of Hall has made Boston top-six a juggernaut.

Boston’s second line of Hall, David Krejci, and Craig Smith only had eight combined points in Round 1 but came through in clutch moments and make for a matchup nightmare considering opponents now have to allocate for two loaded Bruins’ lines. Opponents also have to allocate for Tuukka Rask in net, who went 4-1 with a .941 save percentage in Round 1.

Playoff Series History

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1979-1980

1980 NHL Quarter-Finals: BOS vs. NYI | Hockey-Reference.com

1982-1983

1983 NHL Prince of Wales Conference Finals: BOS vs. NYI | Hockey-Reference.com

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All Time Record VS Buttplugs


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.......................ALL GAMES..........................

...............................HOME...............................

...............................AWAY...............................

.......................PLAYOFFS........................

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W-L-T	WIN%	GFPG	GAPG	W-L-T	WIN%	GFPG	GAPG	W-L	WIN%	GFPG	GAPG	W-L-T	WIN%	GFPG	GAPG
72-98-21	43.2	2.9	3.3	40-46-10	46.9	3.2	3.3	32-52-11	39.5	2.7	3.4	8-3	72.7	4.5	3.2

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[MattMartin]

The New York Islanders and Boston Bruins come into Round 2 with similar reputations but wildly different expectations. Both teams are known for their defensive structure, commitment to detail and for being a “team built for the playoffs.”

If that’s the case, then why does the betting market view these two teams that finished the season separated by just two points and three goals so differently? Boston is a -230 favorite over New York in this series, meaning the Bruins are expected to win this series 69.7% of the time.

Tale of the Tape​

As always, the end-of-season standings only tell part of the story.
The Islanders were legitimately one of the best teams in the NHL through the first 38 games of the season, while the Bruins struggled to find their game in that same span.
Down the stretch, things changed.

The Bruins, who were desperate for some offensive support behind The Perfection Line, acquired former league MVP Taylor Hall at the Trade Deadline. From that point forward, the Bruins have played like a legitimate contender.

On the other side, the Islanders stumbled down the stretch as they tried to find the right lineup. That context is important when you look at the season-long numbers between these two teams because the margins are razor-thin in a vacuum.

Stat	Bruins	Islanders
Goals For per 60 minutes (5-on-5)	2.37	2.47
Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)	2.07	1.97
Goal Differential per 60 (5-on-5)	+0.3	+0.5
Expected Goals per 60 (5-on-5)	2.16	2.24
Expected Goals Against per 60 (5-on-5)	1.89	2.07
Expected Goal Differential per 60 (5-on-5)	+0.37	+0.17
High-Danger Scoring Chances per 60 (5-on-5)	8.86	11.27
High-Danger Scoring Chances Allowed per 60 (5-on-5)	8.7	8.78
Power Play %	21.71%	18.75%
Penalty Kill %	86.29%	83.7%
Expected Save Percentage	94.25%	94.97%
Save Percentage (starting goalie)	.913	.918
Goals Saved Above Expectation (starting goalie)	-1.16	+2.74

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Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.
Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.
What should stick out right away is that both of these teams do a great job of keeping pucks out of their own net and out of the high-danger areas. Playing responsible defense and making life easy on the goaltender is the lifeblood for both clubs, and for the most part, they accomplished that during the regular season.

Where these two teams begin to drift apart is in their roster makeup.

While both teams feature deep forward groups, true No. 1 defensemen and great goaltending, the Bruins have more to offer in terms of their high-end talent.

The Islanders will not only need to find a way to cope with Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak, but also with a second line that features an in-form Hall, David Krejci and Craig Smith.

The bottom of the forward groups are a wash, and you can even make the argument the Isles have a slight edge if healthy, but that doesn’t negate the advantage Boston has with The Perfection Line plus Hall at the top.

The Bruins Keep Rolling​

The Boston Bruins have seemingly peaked at the right time.

Including Round 1, the Bruins have gone 16-5-1 in the 22 games since acquiring Hall at the Trade Deadline. Those results are impressive, but they’re also well-earned. Boston has dominated its opponents at 5-on-5 since Hall (and Curtis Lazar and Mike Reilly) arrived.

Stat (5-on-5)	Before Hall (39 games)	After Hall (17 games)
Goals For per 60 minutes	2.02	3.14
Expected Goals per 60 minutes	1.95	2.62
Expected Goals Rate	49.3%	61.7%
Shooting percentage	6.43%	8.34%

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Boston carried that form into the tournament, skating to a 58.03% expected goals rate and a 61.54% high-danger chance rate in a gentleman’s sweep over the Washington Capitals in Round 1. While the Bruins needed a couple of overtime wins along the way, they were clearly the better team.
If you do want to poke holes into Boston’s current run, you can point to its schedule since the Trade Deadline. A team can only beat the team in front of it, but there’s no denying the B’s had a light run into the tournament with eight of their last 17 games coming against the Devils and Sabres.

You’d also be within your right to suggest the Capitals were the easiest Round 1 opponent in the East Division considering they were banged up, played their No. 3 goaltender for the first half of the series and were without one of their best centers for half the contest as well.

Still, it was an impressive display from the Bruins, as they imposed their will on the Capitals at even strength. Washington, one of the league’s best offensive teams, only mustered seven goals, 8.17 expected goals and 30 high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 against the B’s in Round 1.
There seems to be enough evidence to believe the Bruins have rounded into the Stanley Cup contender we all expected them to be before the season.

The Islanders Did It Again​

While the Bruins basically swatted the Caps aside, the Islanders played a very different Round 1 series against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The Isles grinded their way through the Penguins, 4-2, in trademark Islanders fashion. At times the Isles bent, but they never broke, thanks in large part to rookie goaltender Ilya Sorokin.
Sorokin, who spent the last seven years or so dominating the KHL, endured a couple of bumps in his rookie season in the NHL, but for the most part has acclimated himself quite well. The 25-year-old finished the regular season with a .918 save percentage and +2.74 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 22 games.

As encouraging as those numbers are, it was Sorokin’s performance in Round 1 that has Islander fans believing that they can pull the upset over Boston with their supposed No. 2 goaltender in the blue paint.

Sorokin outplayed Tristan Jarry in Game 1, then was unsurprisingly replaced by Semyon Varlamov in Game 2 after it was deemed that Varlamov, who posted splendid numbers in the regular season, was healthy enough to play.

A couple of underwhelming performances in Games 2 and 3 meant that Sorokin was back in for Game 4, and he delivered a composed performance en route to a 4-1 win. Sorokin then proceeded to steal Game 5 in what may be the best goaltending performance we see for the entire postseason.

The narrative coming out of the Isles’ victory over the Penguins is that New York was gifted the series by Penguins goaltender Jarry, who skated to a -6.72 GSAx in the series. While it’s true that even bad-not-terrible goaltending from Jarry would have made that series a different story, part of the Islanders’ identity is to win the goaltending battle.

That will be a much steeper task in Round 2 against Tuukka Rask, but it’s definitely not out of the question that Sorokin and Varlamov can out-perform Rask over the next two weeks.

While Sorokin was the star of the show against the Penguins, the rest of the team was a mixed bag. There were some lean moments for a lot of Islanders throughout the six-game victory, but the team stuck with it in those situations and never let the Penguins run away with a game.

Overall, the Islanders outscored the Penguins, 18-12, at 5-on-5 but lost the expected goals battle, 13.46 to 11.22. Those numbers provide further evidence that goaltending was the difference, but to say the Penguins dominated the entire series but for the goaltending is a bit dramatic, and that narrative seems to be the one that folks in the hockey universe are clinging to.
Staying with Boston will be a much tougher task, but the Islanders may have the right make-up to stick with the B’s.

The Perfection Line is an absolute nightmare to play against, but the Islanders have one of the NHL’s best shutdown pairings in Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech, plus they don’t have an easy forward line to play against.

With a strong spine and plenty of well-drilled, defensively-responsible forwards, the Islanders are not an easy puzzle for any team to figure out. Just expecting Boston’s top six to dominate from puck drop to the final whistle underrates one of New York’s biggest strengths.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

Looking at our second and third lines vs their second and third lines..

But they have better “names”

 

[SI90]

Looking at our second and third lines vs their second and third lines..

But they have better “names”

they have the best 1st line in hockey IMO. We’re not shutting them down but if we can play them hard and do our best to contain them that will give us a shot.

we really need to play our best hockey against these guys. Playing like we did against the pens won’t cut. Hopefully the boys play their game.

 

[Kevin27NYI]

they have the best 1st line in hockey IMO. We’re not shutting them down but if we can play them hard and do our best to contain them that will give us a shot.

we really need to play our best hockey against these guys. Playing like we did against the pens won’t cut. Hopefully the boys play their game.

Crosby, guentzel and Rust are also an incredible line

 

[SI90]

Crosby, guentzel and Rust are also an incredible line

Yes but all 3 of the forwards on BOS top line are Elite players. All 3. Not too mention besides elite on offensively Marchand and Bergeron are elite defensively.

 

[Wanderson]

Yes but all 3 of the forwards on BOS top line are Elite players. All 3. Not too mention besides elite on offensively Marchand and Bergeron are elite defensively.

That’s one of the best lines in the league at the moment. Their 1st line is way better than ours. But Edmonton has showed the world that one incredible line won’t win the series on their own. Isles won’t let them run wild.

The other lines are extremely even. However, I think the Isles got a slightly edge on the defense.

This series will be a war, and I don’t think there is any clear favourite. Still, it seems like people are underrating the Isles. I wonder what it will take until people actually understand that the Isles are a good team.

 

[Islanders4Cups]

My heart is with this Islander team but the Bruins pose a lot of problems for us and it does not add up to a series win unless the Bruins falter (much like the Pens did).

I had the Islanders in 6 over the Pens because of our defense and goaltending advantage and will be pleasantly surprised if the Islanders produce enough to host a game 6 here. If they do it is anyones series.

 

[Strummergas]

GNEW YORK ISLANDERS (21-8-4) VS BOSTON BRUINS (16-8-4)
8PM | TD GARDEN
WATCH: NBC
LISTEN: 88.7FM | 103.9FM | 970AMM

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[Kevin27NYI]

Yes but all 3 of the forwards on BOS top line are Elite players. All 3. Not too mention besides elite on offensively Marchand and Bergeron are elite defensively.

They’ll get their points I’m sure, but Pulock and Pelech will limit them.

 

[MJF]

I'm thinking this is the series that Barzal starts getting rewarded. He has to know he won't be able to be elusive and take rink tours. He's already been playing a north-south game since Game 3 of the Penguins series. He was getting some good in-close chances against Jarry later in the series. He'll have to keep playing that way against Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak. I believe this is the night Barzy gets rewarded.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

Anybody else worried that Trotz might start Varlamov tonight?

 

[13th Floor]

I wonder who Cassidy puts Bergeron against at home. Barzal or Nelson?

If I were him I would be trying to shut down the Nelson line, and then maybe Barzal can get some space.

 

[Instant]

Anybody else worried that Trotz might start Varlamov tonight?

Nope

Trotz is not stupid. Sorokin is the obvious choice.

 

[CupHolders]

Anybody else worried that Trotz might start Varlamov tonight?

I would not be surprised in the least. I’m also not worried if he does.

 

[MJF]

Anybody else worried that Trotz might start Varlamov tonight?

Not at all. Why are you?

 

[Big L]

Nope

Trotz is not stupid. Sorokin is the obvious choice.

He did start varly game 2 though.

 

[JKP]

Guess we’ll start to find out tonight how much the “we got so close last year and feel we have unfinished business” trope was real or just BS. Everyone on the Isles (esp 13, 2 and 8) need to find another level now.

 

[MJF]

He did start varly game 2 though.

It was early in the series and Trotz was giving Varly a chance to reclaim the net. Varlamov did have a terrific year and Trotz probably felt he shouldn’t lose his job because he was injured. Now Sorokin is putting together a run that makes it very tough to sit him down.

 

[Instant]

He did start varly game 2 though.

That was before Varlamov shit the bed against Pens. Sorokin is the obvious choice and I have enough faith in Trotz to think he will realize that.

This series will be difficult. Isles need to come out and play their asses off and even then I'm not sure it will be enough.

 

[CREW99AW]

I expect Boston to win in 6. I would love to see Sorokin steal another series,but the Bruins are healthy and their offense is clicking.

I was surprised to read Wally is day to day. I worried he was done for this season.

 

[Riseonfire]

This series will be a battle of the middle 6 forwards. Whichever group plays better moves on IMO.

 

[Satan'sIsland81]

Here is the way I look at it. When the Isles are playing bad, they could probably lose a playoff series against Ottawa. If we play like we did against the Pens, I still think we can get this series to 6 or 7 games. If the Isles play at their best, which we have seen they are definitely capable of doing for stretches of 7-10 games at a time, we can definitely win this series. It depends on which Isles we get.

 

[CaptDenisPotvin]

Crosby’s line didnt score regularly , neither will the Bergeron line because of Pelech and Pulock. This team has Hall and Debrusk, the last one had Carter and Tucker. I think quite honestly the Pens top 4 dman are better than what Boston has. The major difference is gonna come down to beating Rask, take his eyes away and play our game. Score first....win game 1, change the series immediately LGI

 

[Big L]

It was early in the series and Trotz was giving Varly a chance to reclaim the net. Varlamov did have a terrific year and Trotz probably felt he shouldn’t lose his job because he was injured. Now Sorokin is putting together a run that makes it very tough to sit him down.

That was before Varlamov shit the bed against Pens. Sorokin is the obvious choice and I have enough faith in Trotz to think he will realize that.

This series will be difficult. Isles need to come out and play their asses off and even then I'm not sure it will be enough.

Isles had already won game 1, and if Varly wasn’t ready to start game 1, then no need to start him for game 2 - start Varly game 3, at home, with a couple extra days rest. Worst case you’re tied in the series 1-1 and that gives Varly the chance to own the net again. Trotz had nothing to lose going with Soro in game 2 and could only gain by waiting and starting Varly game 3