Series Discussion: (1) AD1: Florida Panthers vs (8) WC2: Washington Capitals | Panthers win 4-2

[g00n]

Really wished we weren't going into the playoffs with 4 losses in a row.

Those were exhibition games.

 

[traparatus]

I think to beat Florida, Caps will have to play a lot better than they have played this year and Panthers will have to play a lot worse. Yeap, that's my key to victory and I'm sticking to it.

I really like the 'Ovi scored 50' option in this poll. It perfectly describes the way I feel.

 

[g00n]

If nothing else, Florida is a much different team than the Islanders in 2020 and the Bruins in 2021. Those teams were defensive stalwarts with solid goaltending and opportunistic scoring. They frustrated the hell out of Washington and made for some unwatchable series (from Washington's point of view).

Florida is a much different team, and honestly this matchup is probably a bit better than the prior two years even if Florida accumulated more standings points. Washington should have opportunities to score and I don't see them getting shut down. If playoff experience matters, then Washington should have the edge there as well, at least when it comes to their skaters.

However I find it difficult to pick Washington. Their second line is quite bad and will have regular matchups with either Barkov or Huberdeau on the regular. Mantha will have to carry that line to a stalemate. Their goaltending is also probably the worst in the playoffs, aside from maybe Nashville's since Saros is injured. Maybe Bobrovsky and Knight choke it up. Bob's done it in the past, but it's hard to make predictions based on a goalie choking especially when Washington's goaltenders are equally or more likely to do so.

Keys to victory:

1. As Langway mentioned, the top 4 D is going to need to have a monster series. Carlson in particular is going to need to summon a postseason effort we haven't seen from him since 2018. The good news is he's primed to do so. He's finally healthy entering a postseason, and has been playing well. Orlov and Jensen are going to need to be defensive catalysts, relieving pressure through smart and quick breakouts. Orlov is going to need to contribute offensively as well, but he has done so in the most recent postseason series.

2. Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Wilson are going to need to turn back the clock to 2018. These games aren't likely to be won 2-1 or 3-2. They'll likely be high-scoring affairs, and the stars will need to be stars. If Ovechkin isn't 100% or close to it I find it very difficult to imagine Washington winning. Kuznetsov is going to need to be better than he has shown the last half of the season. Wilson is going to have to assert himself offensively. Again, it's possible. This trio has done it before. As recently as this season they have had periods of greatness.

3. Vanecek (or Samsonov) needs to limit the damage. They need to save everything they should save. It's hard to expect more out of them, but they can't let in those laughers. If they can get .900 goaltending, a win is possible.

4. The 4th line of Larsson-Dowd-Hathaway is going to need to stifle Florida's top lines. It's doable, they really are a fantastic matchup line. Hathaway is a very good agitator. But more than this, I think they'll need to score a few goals of their own when they get favorable matchups.


Overall, I picked Florida in 6. I think far too many things need to go right in order to confidently pick Washington. But it's certainly possible. For those who choose to watch the games (I don't), the series should be more fun than the prior two years.

This analysis saves me a lot of typing, though I think Mantha, Mojo, and Sheary are going to be potential x-factors we haven't really accounted for.

I don't doubt that the team from March can make this a series and take it 6 or 7 with a bit of luck turning it either way. My main concern is Ovechkin's health. As he goes, the team goes. If he's MVP Ovie then we have a good chance of advancing. If not then Lavi or someone else is going to have to keep their heads in the right place.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Hard to be optimistic, picked Panthers in 5. The playoffs are full of surprises though, and we’ve lost in the past when we were in Florida’s position.

 

[Roric]

Everyone's counting us out-many calls of straight sweeps. Generally that kind of mentality has served us well in the past with the lack of pressure, certainly better than when we were in FLA's shoes

That said, any hope of surviving will come down to VV/Sammy suddenly going god-mode

 

[Holtbyisms]

Panthers in 5. Series will go 1-1 then they'll win 3 in a row.

 

[Devil Dancer]

I feel like there's a path to victory based on goonery. Someone should probably hit Huberdeau hard at least once a shift.

Ekblad won't be 100%.

Bob isn't Veznia Bob anymore.

There are some cracks.

 

[trick9]

Capitals in 7.

We like our team.

 

[Roshi]

Playoffs hockey is here so why gloom and not just roll with it… We can beat them, so we will! Lets Go Caps!

Just start from the first game, get it done. Then win 3 more. Then win 12 more. 16-0 sweep incoming.

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

I feel like there's a path to victory based on goonery. Someone should probably hit Huberdeau hard at least once a shift.

Ekblad won't be 100%.

Bob isn't Veznia Bob anymore.

There are some cracks.

 

[Corby78]

While anything can happen, especially in the NHL playoffs, it’s not exactly a great strategy to rely on

 

[SecretaryofDefense5]

While anything can happen, especially in the NHL playoffs, it’s not exactly a great strategy to rely on

Agreed. But at the moment we gotta roll with what we have.

 

[g00n]

While anything can happen, especially in the NHL playoffs, it’s not exactly a great strategy to rely on

Nobody's relying on anything. This is entertainment to everyone here. What's the point of watching if you're miserable all the time, expect to lose, and do nothing but complain?

I'm convinced for some people those things ARE the entertainment, not the game.

It's the playoffs. Everyone starts from scratch. You just have to take it one game at a time. This is when legends are made and it's usually a grind.

So yeah, anything can happen. No point in going into it with fear or anxiety.

 

[Corby78]

Nobody's relying on anything. This is entertainment to everyone here. What's the point of watching if you're miserable all the time, expect to lose, and do nothing but complain?

I'm convinced for some people those things ARE the entertainment, not the game.

It's the playoffs. Everyone starts from scratch. You just have to take it one game at a time. This is when legends are made and it's usually a grind.

So yeah, anything can happen. No point in going into it with fear or anxiety.

This team (especially this current addition) has been the most fun hockey team I’ve ever followed. And I wouldn’t continue to follow like I am if it wasn’t fun. (Go see how I follow the football team). But forgive me for being honest and not being delusional. This team has been falling off a cliff since Nov, and I have not seen a lot from players or staff to show they are fixing it. So now here we are, the time of the year I usually look forward to the most and people are I’m getting the third degree because my favorite sports team looks like ass and I’m not over joyed because “anything can happen.”?? Sorry I will root hard and hope for the best because I want this team to win more than any other. But that also means I’m going to not be happy when they don’t win.

 

[g00n]

This team (especially this current addition) has been the most fun hockey team I’ve ever followed. And I wouldn’t continue to follow like I am if it wasn’t fun. (Go see how I follow the football team). But forgive me for being honest and not being delusional. This team has been falling off a cliff since Nov, and I have not seen a lot from players or staff to show they are fixing it. So now here we are, the time of the year I usually look forward to the most and people are I’m getting the third degree because my favorite sports team looks like ass and I’m not over joyed because “anything can happen.”?? Sorry I will root hard and hope for the best because I want this team to win more than any other. But that also means I’m going to not be happy when they don’t win.

They haven't looked like shit since Nov, they were one of the best teams in the league for about 6 weeks from March through late April. They only started looking like shit when Ovie got hurt and they decided to phone it in to avoid risking further injury.

Will they win this series? Odds are against it but the DERM N GLERM even before a puck has been dropped is premature. There is reason to believe they can pull it off. Why ignore those reasons based on 3-4 shitty, meaningless games?

 

[Leksand]

If nothing else, Florida is a much different team than the Islanders in 2020 and the Bruins in 2021. Those teams were defensive stalwarts with solid goaltending and opportunistic scoring. They frustrated the hell out of Washington and made for some unwatchable series (from Washington's point of view).

Florida is a much different team, and honestly this matchup is probably a bit better than the prior two years even if Florida accumulated more standings points. Washington should have opportunities to score and I don't see them getting shut down. If playoff experience matters, then Washington should have the edge there as well, at least when it comes to their skaters.

However I find it difficult to pick Washington. Their second line is quite bad and will have regular matchups with either Barkov or Huberdeau on the regular. Mantha will have to carry that line to a stalemate. Their goaltending is also probably the worst in the playoffs, aside from maybe Nashville's since Saros is injured. Maybe Bobrovsky and Knight choke it up. Bob's done it in the past, but it's hard to make predictions based on a goalie choking especially when Washington's goaltenders are equally or more likely to do so.

Keys to victory:

1. As Langway mentioned, the top 4 D is going to need to have a monster series. Carlson in particular is going to need to summon a postseason effort we haven't seen from him since 2018. The good news is he's primed to do so. He's finally healthy entering a postseason, and has been playing well. Orlov and Jensen are going to need to be defensive catalysts, relieving pressure through smart and quick breakouts. Orlov is going to need to contribute offensively as well, but he has done so in the most recent postseason series.

2. Ovechkin, Kuznetsov, and Wilson are going to need to turn back the clock to 2018. These games aren't likely to be won 2-1 or 3-2. They'll likely be high-scoring affairs, and the stars will need to be stars. If Ovechkin isn't 100% or close to it I find it very difficult to imagine Washington winning. Kuznetsov is going to need to be better than he has shown the last half of the season. Wilson is going to have to assert himself offensively. Again, it's possible. This trio has done it before. As recently as this season they have had periods of greatness.

3. Vanecek (or Samsonov) needs to limit the damage. They need to save everything they should save. It's hard to expect more out of them, but they can't let in those laughers. If they can get .900 goaltending, a win is possible.

4. The 4th line of Larsson-Dowd-Hathaway is going to need to stifle Florida's top lines. It's doable, they really are a fantastic matchup line. Hathaway is a very good agitator. But more than this, I think they'll need to score a few goals of their own when they get favorable matchups.


Overall, I picked Florida in 6. I think far too many things need to go right in order to confidently pick Washington. But it's certainly possible. For those who choose to watch the games (I don't), the series should be more fun than the prior two years.

Good stuff here and also from g00n in the reply.

Just struck me there's a dog that didn't bark here - nothing on Backstrom or Eller. And, with good reason what is there to say. We all wish we could add a point 5. to the narrow path to victory: "Backstrom and Eller getting back to 2018 level of play or at least sold upper half 2C and 3C level" It just doesn't sit well, does it?

Yeah, goaltending, goaltending, but a weak middle not so good either. (Just waiting for this Caps vintage to be the 28th team trying to have MaJo play C)

 

[895]

I feel better about playing the Panthers than I did about the Bruins last year. Caps in 6.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Good stuff here and also from g00n in the reply.

Just struck me there's a dog that didn't bark here - nothing on Backstrom or Eller. And, with good reason what is there to say. We all wish we could add a point 5. to the narrow path to victory: "Backstrom and Eller getting back to 2018 level of play or at least sold upper half 2C and 3C level" It just doesn't sit well, does it?

Yeah, goaltending, goaltending, but a weak middle not so good either. (Just waiting for this Caps vintage to be the 28th team trying to have MaJo play C)

I’m just not sure anyone believes that will happen. If it did, would be a monster boost.

If we lose this series, I expect those two at the top of many shit lists around here….the goaltending is simply the backbone of the team D. Rate that importance as you will….I have it very high up there.

 

[RedRocking]

The Avs game, and the majority of the Leafs game is the blueprint. Hit ‘em in the mouth early and often, clog up the neutral zone and frustrate a team that’s not used to working hard to get good looks. Wear them down in their own end with our strong 5 man cycle game. Game manage the second, smartly roll 4 lines so guys aren’t getting stuck out there on long shifts against their explosiveness.

Obviously it’s going to take a Herculean effort on D from everyone. Since March we’ve seen them be able to lock in collectively against good teams and limit shots and quality chances.

Now, can they do that for 4+ games, without much margin for error because of goaltending? A lot to ask of an older core, but not impossible - having been through the playoff wars together cuts our way a bit. Obviously, whatever they can do early (and try like hell to win G1) will help FL doubt themselves and feel the pressure of lofty expectations.

Time to sack up and play some heavy, big boy hockey.

Caps in 7.

 

[Leksand]

I’m just not sure anyone believes that will happen. If it did, would be a monster boost.

If we lose this series, I expect those two at the top of many shit lists around here….the goaltending is simply the backbone of the team D. Rate that importance as you will….I have it very high up there.

of course goaltending is super duper important
there's a reason the only three time CS winner is a goaltender

 

[Leksand]

of course goaltending is super duper important
there's a reason the only three time CS winner is a goaltender

it's also a main reason I don't understand the low analytics probability for the Rangers to eliminate the Pens. Shesterkin on a team with 5-6 more RWs for the season against a backup

 

[Corby78]

They haven't looked like shit since Nov, they were one of the best teams in the league for about 6 weeks from March through late April. They only started looking like shit when Ovie got hurt and they decided to phone it in to avoid risking further injury.

Will they win this series? Odds are against it but the DERM N GLERM even before a puck has been dropped is premature. There is reason to believe they can pull it off. Why ignore those reasons based on 3-4 shitty, meaningless games?

Point taken, and I’m not ignoring they have a shot, even though I don’t believe it will happen. However those were not four meaningless games. They had issues going in they needed to fix, they had a shot at moving up in the standing, and setting up some momentum going in. Instead they played awful, lost to teams with nothing to play for, and go into the playoffs with players saying stuff like “I don’t even recognize us.”

 

[g00n]

Point taken, and I’m not ignoring they have a shot, even though I don’t believe it will happen. However those were not four meaningless games. They had issues going in they needed to fix, they had a shot at moving up in the standing, and setting up some momentum going in. Instead they played awful, lost to teams with nothing to play for, and go into the playoffs with players saying stuff like “I don’t even recognize us.”

That's not all he said.

Eller, Laviolette Have Strong Words For Capitals as Team Braces for Florida

Washington Capitals center Lars Eller was to-the-point and honest as he shared his thoughts on the team’s rough end to the egular season. Washington ended an injury-riddled, inconsistent campaign on a tough note, dropping a 3-2 decision to the New York Rangers in Game 82. The Capitals ended the...

washingtonhockeynow.com

He's mirroring exactly what I've been saying. They phoned it in after Ovie got hurt and they believe they can ramp it back up now that the games matter. We'll see.

 

[Fred22406Capsfan]

Hit 'em. Then hit 'em again. Then again for good measure. Contest everything. Maybe we win four and move on. If not, leave everything on the ice and we'll figure out next season afterwards. Go team.

 

[EYEuhFRAYtee]

Flip it! Playoffs 22!