GDT: 1/13/17 - 8:00PM EDT - Columbus VS Tampa Bay

[Sear91]

They made no adjustment to the Jackets' defensive scheme. Throughout the entirety of the 2nd and 3rd periods we were forced to the perimeter and had no dangerous scoring opportunities. We either need someone who can force the play inside and draw defenders or adjust to the defense that was presented to us.

 

[Tampacuseforever]

Who do you think isn't getting the opportunity they deserve?

It's more about accountability. I think these guys have become way too comfortable and we need to make some changes. We have become way to stagnant and I don't mean more movement between Syracuse and Tampa that has become a joke in itself. Cooper talks about how they have become family and I think that maybe some of the problem. Time to shake things up for real !!! I just can't help but think these guys are way to comfortable.

 

[Todd1a]

Who do you think isn't getting the opportunity they deserve?

Slater koekoekk cooper needs to play this guy and accept growing pains. Vasy also if yzerman truly views him as his starter next season he then needs to play him . Accept vasys growing pains playoffs are not happening this year prepare for the 2017-2018 s season starting now. I understand bishop is the best goalie to give you a chance for a win today but if your not going to sign bishop then keep playing vasy.

 

[Sky04]

Slater koekoekk cooper needs to play this guy and accept growing pains. Vasy also if yzerman truly views him as his starter next season he then needs to play him . Accept vasys growing pains playoffs are not happening this year prepare for the 2017-2018 s season starting now. I understand bishop is the best goalie to give you a chance for a win today but if your not going to sign bishop then keep playing vasy.

lol what the hell, no.

 

[Todd1a]

lol what the hell, no.

Yes Nolan Patrick

 

[Major4Boarding]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Atlantic/TampaBay.html

Yeah, totally overreacting when we're sitting at a 10% chance to make the playoffs. We would need to go 23-10-5 from here on out to get 95 points (which still wouldn't guarantee a spot).

Yeah, well, forgive me if I reserve my for the end of February if things still look dire. Over my 30+ years of watching this sport, its always been Oct-Jan being either "Uh-Oh" or on pace, but its what you do in February and down the stretch. So many teams get hot, others cool off. But hey, don't let my thoughts get in the way of the prototypical TB Sports Fan meltdown though. Fire the Coach reserved for the other thread.

One thing I remember from last season, the Flyers at this mark had a similar record, points, and statistical odds of making the playoffs. Granted they made it as a wildcard (thanks mostly due to a Bruins late-March meltdown) and were out in 6 (one goal away from taking the Caps to a Game 7).

My point, right now its still doable.

 

[The Macho King]

Yeah, well, forgive me if I reserve my for the end of February if things still look dire. Over my 30+ years of watching this sport, its always been Oct-Jan being either "Uh-Oh" or on pace, but its what you do in February and down the stretch. So many teams get hot, others cool off. But hey, don't let my thoughts get in the way of the prototypical TB Sports Fan meltdown though. Fire the Coach reserved for the other thread.

One thing I remember from last season, the Flyers at this mark had a similar record, points, and statistical odds of making the playoffs. Granted they made it as a wildcard (thanks mostly due to a Bruins late-March meltdown) and were out in 6 (one goal away from taking the Caps to a Game 7).

My point, right now its still doable.

Your memory clearly sucks. Last season after 44 games the Flyers were 20-16-8, good for 48 points. They ended up with 96 points, which is pretty close to the pace they were at at that time (a little below, but certainly plausible). That is 4 points better than us at the same time (which is more than it looks like).

There's a reason that the teams in the playoffs around Thanksgiving are about 85% chance to make the playoffs overall. It is though to make up ground in a league where even losing can get you points. Our current odds to make the playoffs (based purely on the mathematical likelihood and not factoring in injuries and how ****** we play) is 10.4% right now.

The sky is falling. It has been for awhile. We are about 5 or 6 weeks away from the trade deadline, and we are not getting Stamkos back in that time.

Have people made the playoffs in our situation before? Of course they have. That's why we still have a 10% chance. But you're not a better "fan" because you don't understand the mathematical odds of it happening are about the same as you hitting a 4 outer on the river. To hit 95 points (which is probably the lowest amount we could reasonably have a chance to make the playoffs with), we need to go 23-10-5 for the rest of the season. And our next five games are against the Kings, Sharks (second game of a b2b), Ducks, Coyotes, and Blackhawks.

I would be shocked if we won two of those games. Go ahead and book tee times for mid-April, because there won't be hockey to watch.

 

[DFC]

Yeah. And, with the way the NHL makes a ton of division rivalry games toward the end of the year, while that does give us a chance to make up some ground in our own games, it also means there's always points going to the Atlantic division in the other games. (After a quick peek at the schedule) Florida, for instance, plays six of their last eight games against divisional opponents. In a lot of those games (like FLA vs. BOS/TOR), it really doesn't matter who wins. It's just points that have to go to someone we're racing with.

I think our chance to turn the season around has come and gone. I'm expecting it to be effectively over after this road trip.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I'm not ready to go full panic mode yet but it's getting close. To me a lot depends on how they do in the road trip coming up. Right now it's not looking good. But it's not over until it's over and I still believe the team can turn it around but at this point it also depends on what the other teams in front of us do. Not just on the team turning around. It's happened before though.

 

[DFC]

I'm not ready to go full panic mode yet but it's getting close. To me a lot depends on how they do in the road trip coming up. Right now it's not looking good. But it's not over until it's over and I still believe the team can turn it around but at this point it also depends on what the other teams in front of us do. Not just on the team turning around. It's happened before though.

It's possible, but we need to reverse a lot of trends. Like a trend that goes back years where we're a mediocre road team, at best. I think we're in miracle territory now.

If we go, like 2-4 on this trip, which is totally realistic, I think we'll be effectively finished, and Yzerman will start trying to make moves focused on next year rather than this year. As of right now, we're in a weird spot where trying to save the season (Shattenkirk, for instance) might be a waste of assets.

 

[Major4Boarding]

Your memory clearly sucks. Last season after 44 games the Flyers were 20-16-8, good for 48 points. They ended up with 96 points, which is pretty close to the pace they were at at that time (a little below, but certainly plausible). That is 4 points better than us at the same time (which is more than it looks like).

There's a reason that the teams in the playoffs around Thanksgiving are about 85% chance to make the playoffs overall. It is though to make up ground in a league where even losing can get you points. Our current odds to make the playoffs (based purely on the mathematical likelihood and not factoring in injuries and how ****** we play) is 10.4% right now.

The sky is falling. It has been for awhile. We are about 5 or 6 weeks away from the trade deadline, and we are not getting Stamkos back in that time.

Have people made the playoffs in our situation before? Of course they have. That's why we still have a 10% chance. But you're not a better "fan" because you don't understand the mathematical odds of it happening are about the same as you hitting a 4 outer on the river. To hit 95 points (which is probably the lowest amount we could reasonably have a chance to make the playoffs with), we need to go 23-10-5 for the rest of the season. And our next five games are against the Kings, Sharks (second game of a b2b), Ducks, Coyotes, and Blackhawks.

I would be shocked if we won two of those games. Go ahead and book tee times for mid-April, because there won't be hockey to watch.

You're absolutely right. By all means, my memory clearly sucks and its an absolute travesty to compare a team this time last year that was 4 points better than the Lightning's record and made the Playoffs as an example. Proceed with blowing up the entire village.

And FTR, I'm not a "better fan" than anyone here and certainly do understand mathematical odds. Do you consistently check in on SCS? Daily, weekly, or occasionally? Do you see the pendulum shift? The somewhat difficulty to calculate and factor in what happens if the games-in-hand are burned up with losses and the chasing team(s) gains ground? Its an argument to be had at another date and time, but here's a tip. Try 50/50 and not weighted. That's my preference but hell, buddy, your mileage may vary.

Hell, all this boils down to at this juncture anyway is belief. Belief in whether or not they can climb outta this hole or not. I'm certainly no ****ing Pollyanna by any stretch. Most of you here have already crossed over to doom-and-gloom side. Just I haven't. Yet.

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

Yes Nolan Patrick

In order to do this and play vasy like you mentioned, Bish has to be moved. Cannot tank with a better goalie on the bench. I do think the tank mode accomplishes a few things. 1) Allows us to stock with high end talent. 2) Gets Vasy the chance to work out his issues over the rest of the season (ideally bring in a serviceable backup next year). You could make an argument that while this is not gonna be fun for the next few months, it would be beneficial for the future of the team. Plus, we would have to go on a ****ing tear to make the playoffs anyways, which I dont know if we are capable of.

 

[The Macho King]

You're absolutely right. By all means, my memory clearly sucks and its an absolute travesty to compare a team this time last year that was 4 points better than the Lightning's record and made the Playoffs as an example. Proceed with blowing up the entire village.

And FTR, I'm not a "better fan" than anyone here and certainly do understand mathematical odds. Do you consistently check in on SCS? Daily, weekly, or occasionally? Do you see the pendulum shift? The somewhat difficulty to calculate and factor in what happens if the games-in-hand are burned up with losses and the chasing team(s) gains ground? Its an argument to be had at another date and time, but here's a tip. Try 50/50 and not weighted. That's my preference but hell, buddy, your mileage may vary.

Hell, all this boils down to at this juncture anyway is belief. Belief in whether or not they can climb outta this hole or not. I'm certainly no ****ing Pollyanna by any stretch. Most of you here have already crossed over to doom-and-gloom side. Just I haven't. Yet.

You prefer 50/50 because it gives you better results. It doesn't make intuitive sense since games aren't coinflips.

And yes - odds change based on more information (read: more games played). I don't know what point you think you're proving by that oh so enlightening point, but okay. If we win 10 in a row, then we only need to go 13-10-5 down the stretch for 95 points, and it becomes more likely at that point.

End of the day, we still need about 51 points in 38 games to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs with our already existing injurires and 44 games worth of player performance to project with. It's not happening.

 

[Major4Boarding]

You prefer 50/50 because it gives you better results.

Just as much as you prefer weighted to try to prove your point. Six of one, half dozen the other. Most discerning people I know prefer better results. Just sayin'. I prefer 50/50 because although its not in the total calculation, it does leave room for what I describing above. How games-in-hand, can be burned through with losses and the trailing team(s) have a chance to gain ground.

It doesn't make intuitive sense since games aren't coinflips.

Why, then, are there coinflips in football? I'm kidding

We can do this all day, night, week, whatever. End of the day, you've practically closed the book. I haven't. Time will tell.

 

[Todd1a]

In order to do this and play vasy like you mentioned, Bish has to be moved. Cannot tank with a better goalie on the bench. I do think the tank mode accomplishes a few things. 1) Allows us to stock with high end talent. 2) Gets Vasy the chance to work out his issues over the rest of the season (ideally bring in a serviceable backup next year). You could make an argument that while this is not gonna be fun for the next few months, it would be beneficial for the future of the team. Plus, we would have to go on a ****ing tear to make the playoffs anyways, which I dont know if we are capable of.

Correct we can keep bishop miss the playoffs pick 12th or 13th or play vasy tank and go for a top 5 draft pick. Selling at the deadline would be smart get as much cap room as we can to resign our core. Get a high end young talent in our system. Vasy playing can only help him more in the long run. Now you see the big picture We pretty much must face it this is a busy year use it to our advantage for the future. Imagine if we win the draft lottery we can pick Nolan Patrick or guess what call teams and say you want Patrick ? Then we need a top pairing defenseman of the future with hedman.

 

[DFC]

If we're out of contention when TDL comes around, and Bishop isn't moved, then we might actually move Vasy at the draft. Only makes sense to let Bishop walk if we've got something to play for this year.

So, I guess we're probably gonna get a little compensation for him. His deadline value will only go up if several teams are vying for a top tier goalie.