McKenzie: “More likely than not” that Hoffman gets traded this season

[Bruin4Life]

Have met Hoffman through my years in retail. He's a f***ing asshole

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Guarantee he ain't going nowhere. Dorion just trying to get a market for him. The asking price is going to be high. Plus he has found chemistry with Duchene. Unless it's a few high end pieces. Don't expect a trade.

That goes against literally every rumor - including a 68M internal cap and Karlsson wanting a huge raise. I’m not guaranteeing anything, but the odds are definitely higher he gets traded (and traded this season) than not.

 

[Cynick]

Have met Hoffman through my years in retail. He's a ****ing *******

From your post, I honestly don't know what Hoffman is.

 

[SensFactor]

That goes against literally every rumor - including a 68M internal cap and Karlsson wanting a huge raise. I’m not guaranteeing anything, but the odds are definitely higher he gets traded (and traded this season) than not.

Rumours are just that and frankly don't believe he is going anywhere. Don't believe everything you read or hear.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

That goes against literally every rumor - including a 68M internal cap and Karlsson wanting a huge raise. I’m not guaranteeing anything, but the odds are definitely higher he gets traded (and traded this season) than not.

Exactly, when someone like Bob McKenzie says it is more likely to happen than not happen, the writing is on the wall.

The Senators have 68M committed next year without a full roster, and with Stone, Ceci, and Claesson unsigned. Hoffman is one of the few players who makes a significant salary (nearly 6M) and could possibly return a younger ELC/RFA type player who could contribute soon, or at worst a significant amount of futures.

That's my read of the situation. We're moving Hoffman, allocating Hoffman's money to Stone, and then we're still going to have to move some other players to make it all work (Phaneuf? Ceci? Smith?).

The only way the team has a chance to keep Hoffman is if Phaneuf can be moved cleanly. Even then, they still have to probably move another 5M-8M of salary in order to both fill out the roster to 23 players and extend Ceci because the team isn't going to lose both Phaneuf and Ceci at the same time.

Realistically, I think Bob McKenzie was being conservative in his estimate. I'll be shocked if Hoffman isn't traded by July 1st.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Rumours are just that and frankly don't believe he is going anywhere. Don't believe everything you read or hear.

I’m not “believing” anything anymore than a person who looks outside, sees rain clouds, and “believes” that rain is likely.

Maybe it’s just me, but if I had I had to bet, I’m going to “believe” history, insiders, Dorion himself saying that everyone is available except Karlsson and Stone, and Karlsson saying he wants a large raise over the guy saying “trust me, bro. Don’t believe everything you hear”.

Yeah, I know, the internet is full of people with “opinions” that are really just “feelings”. I don’t believe everything I hear, but I rarely ever believe statements like that.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Rumours are just that and frankly don't believe he is going anywhere. Don't believe everything you read or hear.

Bob McKenzie is pretty consistent though.

We know three things.
-Stone and Karlsson aren't being shopped.

-The Senators have a 68M budget, Melnyk quoted as saying this twice in a two year span.

-The Senators have nearly 68M committed next year to only 18 skaters with Ceci, Stone, and Claesson needing extensions. All three cannot be lowballed as they are arbitration eligible.

What picture does that situation paint when Hoffman is our only big money player who is movable?

 

[rent free]

how

Have met Hoffman through my years in retail. He's a ****ing *******

so?

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Exactly, when someone like Bob McKenzie says it is more likely to happen than not happen, the writing is on the wall.

The Senators have 68M committed next year without a full roster, and with Stone, Ceci, and Claesson unsigned. Hoffman is one of the few players who makes a significant salary (nearly 6M) and could possibly return a younger ELC/RFA type player who could contribute soon, or at worst a significant amount of futures.

That's my read of the situation. We're moving Hoffman, allocating Hoffman's money to Stone, and then we're still going to have to move some other players to make it all work (Phaneuf? Ceci? Smith?).

The only way the team has a chance to keep Hoffman is if Phaneuf can be moved cleanly. Even then, they still have to probably move another 5M-8M of salary in order to both fill out the roster to 23 players and extend Ceci because the team isn't going to lose both Phaneuf and Ceci at the same time.

Realistically, I think Bob McKenzie was being conservative in his estimate. I'll be shocked if Hoffman isn't traded by July 1st.

Hey look, an actual opinion with reasoning. Maybe we should change that to be the definition of an opinion. The world would be a better place.

 

[SensFactor]

I’m not “believing” anything anymore than a person who looks outside, sees rain clouds, and “believes” that rain is likely.

Maybe it’s just me, but if I had I had to bet, I’m going to “believe” history, insiders, Dorion himself saying that everyone is available except Karlsson and Stone, and Karlsson saying he wants a large raise over the guy saying “trust me, bro. Don’t believe everything you hear”.

Yeah, I know, the internet is full of people with “opinions” that are really just “feelings”. I don’t believe everything I hear, but I rarely ever believe statements like that.

OK let's make a friendly no money bet. I guarantee he won't be moved. You in?

 

[topshelf15]

Another lost top 6 player,due to our owner wanting to play in a dollar league with nickels.....He is the problem period

 

[Liver King]

If Bobby Mack says hes likely gonna get traded, hes probably gone.

Ken Warren said we would be interested in a young top 4 dman which is kinda interesting - makes sense why a team like Calgary is involved

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

OK let's make a friendly no money bet. I guarantee he won't be moved. You in?

Of course - why wouldn’t I side with the field and all knowledge on the subject?

Hell, make a vcash bet.

 

[SensFactor]

Bob McKenzie is pretty consistent though.

We know three things.
-Stone and Karlsson aren't being shopped.

-The Senators have a 68M budget, Melnyk quoted as saying this twice in a two year span.

-The Senators have nearly 68M committed next year to only 18 skaters with Ceci, Stone, and Claesson needing extensions. All three cannot be lowballed as they are arbitration eligible.

What picture does that situation paint when Hoffman is our only big money player who is movable?

I see them moving Ceci and/or Zack Smith. That will help with cap issues. Don't see them getting rid of one of the top goal scorers on the Sens who is developing chemistry wth Duchene unless like I said something for the now coming back.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

I could see a deal around Walman+Sobotka.

 

[Korpse]

We'd have have cover Nick with some serious sugar coating for this one to happen.

No amount of sugar coating with get it down. The motivation behind moving Hoffman is to clear salary, the slight savings they get with Bjugstad isn’t enough.

 

[SensFactor]

Of course - why wouldn’t I side with the field and all knowledge on the subject?

Hell, make a vcash bet.

I don't know vcash is and don't use it. You can side with God or the Easter bunny for all I care. Just friendly bet. I'll see you after the trade deadline whether he is traded or not.

 

[Liver King]

I could see a deal around Walman+Sobotka.

I couldn't. What a horrible trade

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I see them moving Ceci and/or Zack Smith. That will help with cap issues. Don't see them getting rid of one of the top goal scorers on the Sens who is developing chemistry wth Duchene unless like I said something for the now coming back.

I actually forgot about MacArthur being insured, in which case, things aren't quite as dire for the Senators if they are receiving 3.8M back from that contract.

Let's put it this way, the Senators next season are at about 62M for 18 skaters BEFORE trading anybody. (When now considering the Mac insurance money, assuming it is still insured to 80 percent next season)

They need an additional 2 skaters to fill out their roster, so that brings them up to about 63.5M for 20 skaters.

They have three arbitration eligible players. Ceci, Stone, and Claesson. The Senators typically backload contracts so we'll say Stone is 6M, Ceci 3.5M, and Claesson 2M. These are the salaries in the first years of their deal NOT their cap hits which in especially Stone's case would be higher. That puts the Senators up to 75M with their current roster completely in tact and having 23 men total.

So if you move Ceci+Smith, you have to add an additional 800k for replacement roster players. That means, you shed a net 5.15M. So the team would still be about 2M over budget with no room to make improvements. So then you have to shed a third, and maybe a 4th contract.

I guess, it's doable if they really want to get 1 extra year of Hoffman, but then you have to consider in 19-20, hopefully Karlsson will stay and his raise will kick in. The Senators once again will have to shuffle the deck, and if we keep Hoffman, likely have to consider trading him anyways.

I'm not exactly for trading Hoffman, but it's easy to see why it's almost certainly going to happen. He is the only piece the Senators have that can shed a significant amount of money off their salary while returning high quality assets. He's often used by the coach on the 3rd line which diminishes the value in keeping him. He also may have to be traded in 19-20 anyways because there'll be even more raises kicking in then with no other big money deals coming off the books (lots of small ones though).

All the evidence points to Hoffman being traded, but you haven't supplied any evidence that points to the contrary.

 

[Sting]

I could see a deal around Walman+Sobotka.

Me too. Walman + Sobotka.......+ Kyrou and Thomas for Hoffman.

 

[SensFactor]

I actually forgot about MacArthur being insured, in which case, things aren't quite as dire for the Senators if they are receiving 3.8M back from that contract.

Let's put it this way, the Senators next season are at about 62M for 18 skaters BEFORE trading anybody. (When now considering the Mac insurance money, assuming it is still insured to 80 percent next season)

They need an additional 2 skaters to fill out their roster, so that brings them up to about 63.5M for 20 skaters.

They have three arbitration eligible players. Ceci, Stone, and Claesson. The Senators typically backload contracts so we'll say Stone is 6M, Ceci 3.5M, and Claesson 2M. These are the salaries in the first years of their deal NOT their cap hits which in especially Stone's case would be higher. That puts the Senators up to 75M with their current roster completely in tact and having 23 men total.

So if you move Ceci+Smith, you have to add an additional 800k for replacement roster players. That means, you shed a net 5.15M. So the team would still be about 2M over budget with no room to make improvements. So then you have to shed a third, and maybe a 4th contract.

I guess, it's doable if they really want to get 1 extra year of Hoffman, but then you have to consider in 19-20, hopefully Karlsson will stay and his raise will kick in. The Senators once again will have to shuffle the deck, and if we keep Hoffman, likely have to consider trading him anyways.

I'm not exactly for trading Hoffman, but it's easy to see why it's almost certainly going to happen. He is the only piece the Senators have that can shed a significant amount of money off their salary while returning high quality assets. He's often used by the coach on the 3rd line which diminishes the value in keeping him. He also may have to be traded in 19-20 anyways because there'll be even more raises kicking in then with no other big money deals coming off the books (lots of small ones though).

All the evidence points to Hoffman being traded, but you haven't supplied any evidence that points to the contrary.

Like i said they have other players they can move and I don't have time or energy to right an essay and speculate what the Sens will do in the next 2 years. You know that Brassard contract expires next year and Duchene too right. Have you figured they will be gone after next year giving up cap space? They don't need to move Hoffman and frankly I don't think it will happen unless they bring something for the now back..meankng someone with salary that can play immediately.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Like i said they have other players they can move and I don't have time or energy to right an essay and speculate what the Sens will do in the next 2 years. You know that Brassard contract expires next year and Duchene too right. Have you figured they will be gone after next year giving up cap space? They don't need to move Hoffman and frankly I don't think it will happen unless they bring something for the now back..meankng someone with salary that can play immediately.

Brassard only makes 3.5M so not extending him or trading him knocks very little off the books, and the team didn't just give up an absurd package to walk away from Duchene in 1.5 seasons, they are gonna do everything in their power to extend him.

All I am saying, is you talk condescendingly about rumours as if we are talking about an Eklund post. Rumours don't go on this long with the engagement of journalists as credible as Bob McKenzie without their being truth to them. You can then look at the Senators salary situation and get a very clear picture of why trading Mike Hoffman is probably going to have to happen. So yes, I think they probably "need" to move Hoffman to get under the 68M imposed salary cap. Unless a miracle happens and we can move Phaneuf without holding back cash, we probably need to move Hoffman or Stone or Duchene or Karlsson. Somebody making (or that will be making) 6M+. Hoffman is the obvious choice there.

I don't really have anything else to add, but if you want to add any evidence for why you think a trade won't happen, I am all ears.

 

[Dbrownss]

Me too. Walman + Sobotka.......+ Kyrou and Thomas for Hoffman.

While his offer is too much of a low ball, why respond with this crap? How about something that's in the realm of reality

 

[westc2]

Me too. Walman + Sobotka.......+ Kyrou and Thomas for Hoffman.

Walman + Sobotka + Kyrou + Thomas for Hoffman.....+ Duchene.

 

[Note Worthy]

Me too. Walman + Sobotka.......+ Kyrou and Thomas for Hoffman.

Lol yeah okay. You can keep him if that's the cost.