McKenzie: “More likely than not” that Hoffman gets traded this season

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

When you are comparing returns, you should also think the time when the trade was made: how did demand and supply affected the market which is the biggest thing. If many teams want Hoffman, return will be somehow bigger. Obviously Dorion cant hold the phone too long but yeah.

You also need to take a look players contracts when valuing players.

You did good job with your research but the original offer is pretty bad. I would do it in a heartbeat if I'm Blue so.

The market is fairly neutral right now, IMO. Either way, that’s a sample size of 6 years with a variable market; I doubt this year somehow has the most beneficial market.

Pros:
Lots of teams still in the playoff hunt
This is a weaker draft, so picks are worth less

Cons:
Multiple scoring wingers on the market
LW is the deepest position in the league
Dorion needs to move salary
Hoffman is having a down year


There are probably more things to consider, but either way I don’t see this market as being more favorable than any market in the past 6 years. I also think it would be extraordinary if Hoffman returned more than any of the above, or even as much as Duchene. Could it happen? Sure. But it’s very unlikely. Worse could even happen, see: Eberle. I don’t think it’s reasonable to discuss either extreme though.

Regardless of the previous offer, a roster player, a prospect, and a pick seems to be the general formula, and the better the player, the worse the other two assets are (and so on). Fabbri+Gunnarsson+2nd/3rd is better than what Oshie got by a lot (Brouwer+Copley+3rd), and Fabbri’s injuries are getting treated like he will never play in the NHL again. Worst case scenario he becomes a 3rd liner that can score and play rough in the corners, and that’s assuming his skating (which is excellent) becomes sub par after an ACL injury. That’s not been the case in most soccer players that I’m aware of (they almost always come back fine), but I’m not sure of a hockey comparable yet.

Again, Duchene returned Bowers + Hammond + 1st + 3rd. I don’t think Hoffman returns that much for multiple reasons, but if he were to return that from the Blues, Kostin (Russian), Binnington, 2nd, and a 3rd would fit the mold (considering Hammond was moreso a cap dump, and STL doesn’t have a 1st). Players like Kostin don’t usually get moved for players like Hoffman, and only rarely had for players like Duchene. Hoffman isn’t a center, and doesn’t have pedigree, position, age, or point totals that Duchene has, though. I’m guessing a lesser prospect, a better roster player, and a 2nd are the return. Fabbri+Gunnarsson+pick fits that. As does Sobotka+Barbashev (Russian)+pick. My guess is that is the kind of package he will return.

 

[migi]

The market is fairly neutral right now, IMO. Either way, that’s a sample size of 6 years with a variable market; I doubt this year somehow has the most beneficial market.

Pros:
Lots of teams still in the playoff hunt
This is a weaker draft, so picks are worth less

Cons:
Multiple scoring wingers on the market
LW is the deepest position in the league
Dorion needs to move salary
Hoffman is having a down year


There are probably more things to consider, but either way I don’t see this market as being more favorable than any market in the past 6 years. I also think it would be extraordinary if Hoffman returned more than any of the above, or even as much as Duchene. Could it happen? Sure. But it’s very unlikely. Worse could even happen, see: Eberle. I don’t think it’s reasonable to discuss either extreme though.

Regardless of the previous offer, a roster player, a prospect, and a pick seems to be the general formula, and the better the player, the worse the other two assets are (and so on). Fabbri+Gunnarsson+2nd/3rd is better than what Oshie got by a lot (Brouwer+Copley+3rd), and Fabbri’s injuries are getting treated like he will never play in the NHL again. Worst case scenario he becomes a 3rd liner that can score and play rough in the corners, and that’s assuming his skating (which is excellent) becomes sub par after an ACL injury. That’s not been the case in most soccer players that I’m aware of (they almost always come back fine), but I’m not sure of a hockey comparable yet.

Again, Duchene returned Bowers + Hammond + 1st + 3rd. I don’t think Hoffman returns that much for multiple reasons, but if he were to return that from the Blues, Kostin (Russian), Binnington, 2nd, and a 3rd would fit the mold (considering Hammond was moreso a cap dump, and STL doesn’t have a 1st). Players like Kostin don’t usually get moved for players like Hoffman, and only rarely had for players like Duchene. Hoffman isn’t a center, and doesn’t have pedigree, position, age, or point totals that Duchene has, though. I’m guessing a lesser prospect, a better roster player, and a 2nd are the return. Fabbri+Gunnarsson+pick fits that. As does Sobotka+Barbashev (Russian)+pick. My guess is that is the kind of package he will return.

Just quickly because I'm on hurry and for me English is harder haha due to nationality, so it would take time to answer as well I would like. Sorry about that!

Again, I like what you type and in main areas I think you are right here. For me, two things:

1) First of all, I think next draft is considered pretty deep? If we are still talking about 2018 draft. I'm not familiar after first round what there are and obviously your offer included 2nd or 3rd, it's archery from 1000 meters to know if the pick hits.

2) For me, I think you are on to something with that proposal but I can't see Ottawa being interested in Fabbri because you never know what ACL does to him and I think Sens would like maybe Dman with a bit higher potential like Schmaltz or Wallman or Dunn. That obviously decreases other parts value. Obviously what is happening in Ottawa is beyond our knowledge and everything depends on Karlsson. If they want futures, Gunnarsson doesnt fit that, healthy Fabbri obviously does. If they want to compete next season, your offer is much closer but I still think Fabbri is valued differently across the league than in St. Louis and rightfully so.

For me I'm wondering why are they even trading Hoffman. Well I get the cap reasons but shouldnt they do the trade next season?

I'm not saying Hoffman would return more than Duchene, not by a long-shot. I just think those pieces arent there and for me I think Oilers would give better pieces. What? Idk. Dont see Fabbri and Gunnarsson main pieces still.

This probably doesnt even answer to you but I'm still half sleep on Sunday morning and in a hurry haha.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

The rumor is that STL, EDM, SJS, and FLA are all in on one or more of Hoffman, Pageau, or Smith. EDM might be able to offer better, but the rumor is that STL is the leader.

Ottawa doesn’t need cap relief as much as they need salary relief. If OTT isn’t getting playoff revenue, they need to start finding ways to save money now. They fully expected to make the playoffs again this year, but can’t afford to pay the bills if they miss. Next year would make more sense if it was just cap, but it’s also wise to maximize Hoffman’s value with term as soon as possible since this year they likely aren’t making the playoffs anyway. Hoffman’s contract is also backloaded, meaning that they pay him more in the following years in cash than what his cap hit will be against the cap - not a good thing for Ottawa, and they historically trade those players away during those years because of it.

Next year Ottawa needs to be good considering they already gave their first to Colorado for Duchene. That would be a disaster. What would be even worse is to go off two losing seasons of penny-pinching, and then have to negotiate with Karlsson. They need to be good next year.

Schmaltz and Walman would definitely be on the table - especially Schmaltz since we have no room for him in the top-4, and like to run a more physical bottom pairing. He’s looked good while up here, but he can’t find a niche given our lineup. Same goes for Gunnarsson, actually. Dunn, Pietrangleo, Edmundson, and Parayko are even pushing JBo out due to being better in the top-4 (not necessarily a shot at JBo - they are just good), and not being physical enough for the bottom pair. Dunn just wouldn’t be available given that both JBo and Gunnarsson are gone in two years and we have no LHD other than he and Edmundson that are for sure. Dunn is definitely no longer a prospect, and if he were, he’s more valuable than even Kyrou at this point given his NHL play, and scoring 45pts and playing top pairing as a rookie last year in the AHL.

As to the draft, it’s my opinion that the top picks are really good, but then there is a massive drop off from there. Lots of Europeans, though.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

So does this work?

Fabbri+Gunnarsson+Paajarvi/Blais+2018 3rd

For

Hoffman+Borowiecki/Claesson

 

[Neiler]

So does this work?

Fabbri+Gunnarsson+Paajarvi/Blais+2018 3rd

For

Hoffman+Borowiecki/Claesson

Holy smokes, no. Those pieces don't make sense for a player like that.

Fabbri, while plenty talented, starting out his career with injury problems is not appealing. You need to keep him and replace him in this deal, it's your risk to take not ours.

Gunnarsson is another middle of the pack LD, something Ottawa has too many of already.

Paajarvi... well nothing needs to be said here.

Blais is undersized, not appealing.

Your 3rd... sweet.

More quality please.

 

[SensFactor]

Sens not trading Hoffman unless they get back an asset that helps them now. They already turned down a deal for prospects and picks. I see them moving Ceci or Smith before Hoffman.

 

[sens13]

wow. some pretty bad offers in this thread.

if Hoffman was a rental he would easily get a first and a decent prospect (Hanzal got a first++ at the deadline last year). People not even including a first in their proposals. Start from there and then add. He has 2 more years after this one left.

Why would Ottawa deal him for garbage? There not looking to make a trade just for the sake of it. They have to be competitive next season.

Also ottawa traded turris in the duchene trade too. It wasn't just bowers,1st,3rd and hammond.

If you want to talk comparables look at what Lucic got: 13 overall in a deep draft, jones(flipped for another first), and miller. And that was only for one year of lucic.

Whoever gets hoffman is getting him for 2 and a half years(at least). And if you've seen him play you know he put up all those points on the third line (Ottawa's shutdown line). He had 61 in 74 last year playing primarily with pageau and pyatt. Now that he's playing with Duchene he's playing even better. Anyone who thinks he's going for walman +sobotka+2nd is out to lunch.

 

[truthbluth]

Hoffman <-> A Nylander + What?

 

[Shwabeal]

Holy smokes, no. Those pieces don't make sense for a player like that.

Fabbri, while plenty talented, starting out his career with injury problems is not appealing. You need to keep him and replace him in this deal, it's your risk to take not ours.

Gunnarsson is another middle of the pack LD, something Ottawa has too many of already.

Paajarvi... well nothing needs to be said here.

Blais is undersized, not appealing.

Your 3rd... sweet.

More quality please.

Not saying this is a good proposal based off of this but in what world is a guy that's close to 6'2" and right around 190lbs undersized?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Senschirp claiming the rumour is STL offered Kyrou+(a pick).

I would guess that pick would be a 2nd or later because STL does not have a 1st this season, and Dorion didn't pull the trigger.

 

[Neiler]

Not saying this is a good proposal based off of this but in what world is a guy that's close to 6'2" and right around 190lbs undersized?

Are you looking at Blais? I checked two sites and they have him at: HEIGHT:5' 10 (178 cm) WEIGHT:164 lbs (74 kg)

 

[Shwabeal]

Are you looking at Blais? I checked two sites and they have him at: HEIGHT:5' 10 (178 cm) WEIGHT:164 lbs (74 kg)

Check something other than draft profiles then. How about the roster of the team he currently plays for, the San Antonio Rampage? 6'1" and 193lbs. I've seen multiple places where he's listed at 6'2". Most recently on the Blues site when he was in the NHL. Might need to look at more sites than the first two that pop up when google searching a guys name. The fact those two sites are eliteprospects and hockeydb probably should have raised some red flags as to whether they were current or not.

Samuel Blais | San Antonio Rampage Hockey

 

[stl76]

Are you looking at Blais? I checked two sites and they have him at: HEIGHT:5' 10 (178 cm) WEIGHT:164 lbs (74 kg)

Blais had a pretty major growth spurt over the past couple seasons. This is what happens when folks comment on prospects they know very little about (other than google-ing their name to look at and base their opinion on stats...).

 

[Neiler]

Blais had a pretty major growth spurt over the past couple seasons. This is what happens when folks comment on prospects they know very little about (other than google-ing their name to look at and base their opinion on stats...).

I'm not a pro scout... Hard for most of us to know anything about prospects unless we do indeed Google them and use various sites.

Anyhow NHL.com has him at 6'2" and 205lbs and the San Antonio page shwabeal posted had him at a good size too. Now I am intrigued and will try to catch a game sometime soon.

 

[stl76]

I'm not a pro scout... Hard for most of us to know anything about prospects unless we do indeed Google them and use various sites.

Anyhow NHL.com has him at 6'2" and 205lbs and the San Antonio page shwabeal posted had him at a good size too. Now I am intrigued and will try to catch a game sometime soon.

Fair enough, I am not a professional scout either. But at the same time, I think it's fair for folks who do watch a prospect to call someone out when they are incorrectly speaking about said prospect (particularly when speaking negatively about a prospect). I would have been happy to tell you or anyone else about Blais if they had asked instead of jumping to conclusions.

FWIW Blais has played a couple games w/ the Blues in late November/early December (I think), so if you feel inclined to check him out that may be a good place to start. He has also been tearing up the AHL at over a PPG this year, especially the past couple weeks.

 

[Shwabeal]

Fair enough, I am not a professional scout either. But at the same time, I think it's fair for folks who do watch a prospect to call someone out when they are incorrectly speaking about said prospect (particularly when speaking negatively about a prospect). I would have been happy to tell you or anyone else about Blais if they had asked instead of jumping to conclusions.

FWIW Blais has played a couple games w/ the Blues in late November/early December (I think), so if you feel inclined to check him out that may be a good place to start. He has also been tearing up the AHL at over a PPG this year, especially the past couple weeks.

He also made the honorable mention section of Pronman's Top 50 prospects list on the Athletic today. There's a lot to be intrigued about with him. and @Moller, didn't mean to jump on you either, I understand he's not a prospect many people outside of Blues fans have even heard of. The fact that he was a 6th round pick doesn't help his case but he had a great first professional last year with Chicago, 26 goals if I remember correctly. He projects as a middle 6 LW. His play away from the puck could use some work but he's got good vision and offensive IQ and a pretty good shot with some playmaking ability. My comment was more about how if you don't know something about a prospect, it helps to look past the first few links on google. Even wikipedia (I know, I know) still has him at 5'10" and they are usually pretty good about updating information. Seeing his AHL stats from last year alone would've shown there was a need to look further into him than just his size. He'd be, by no means, a "throw-in" prospect in a deal like this, he has value. FWIW, someone in the comments section of that same Pronman article asked about potentially trading Blais for a second round pick this year (basically gauging his value) and Pronman said something along the lines of the value is there but it doesn't make sense for the Blues because they'd be more interested in using him in a deal for help for the current roster, not futures.

 

[Hasbro]

Pretending Hoffman gets a Duchene return, the equivalent of Bowers+Hammond+1st+3rd
.

You forgot Turris.

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

You forgot Turris.

I did. Good god that trade was bad.

A better comparable is Pominville.

 

[Hasbro]

I did. Good god that trade was bad.

Not from my perspective.

 

[Warden of the North]

Why is Hoffman even available? Purely a salary dump?

 

[TK 421]

Why is Hoffman even available? Purely a salary dump?

Karlsson needs a new contract so my understanding is moving Hoffman gives them the money to do that.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Karlsson needs a new contract so my understanding is moving Hoffman gives them the money to do that.

Yes Karlsson and Stone need new contracts but more importantly, we are not making the playoffs this year, thus no extra revenue.

Our owner, being a cheap version of Mr. Burns and Trump having a baby, is wanting to shed some salary to cut his losses. While most Sens fans would rather trade Smith, Brassard, Ceci, Oduya, Thompson, Pyatt to free up salary, apparently our best goal scorer making 5.1 mil is generating most of the trade talks (makes sense for other teams, not Ottawa...)

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Yes Karlsson and Stone need new contracts but more importantly, we are not making the playoffs this year, thus no extra revenue.

Our owner, being a cheap version of Mr. Burns and Trump having a baby, is wanting to shed some salary to cut his losses. While most Sens fans would rather trade Smith, Brassard, Ceci, Oduya, Thompson, Pyatt to free up salary, apparently our best goal scorer making 5.1 mil is generating most of the trade talks (makes sense for other teams, not Ottawa...)

Unless something has changed, the Senators operate on a fixed budget that does not take into account playoff revenue. I'd have to go and dig up a bunch of old articles, but I believe this changed around 2012 or 2013 when we started hearing about the Senators being a "budget" team. Their previous budget may have been the one where they needed two rounds of playoffs to break even.

This doesn't mean it isn't possible that they could sell less tickets or accrue less revenue than expected and still lose money, but playoff revenue apparently doesn't come into the equation.

Karlsson needs a new contract so my understanding is moving Hoffman gives them the money to do that.

As of now, the Senators have a 68 million dollar player salary budget. So you're right in a way. The Senators are doing the same things teams do when they reach the salary cap, making tough choices and trading players away to get under the cap or to. Just in the Senators case they are dealing with a 68M cap not a 75M cap.

That doesn't absolve them from the choice of trading Hoffman. They still have to own up to it being their choice that trading Hoffman is the best move strategically in their situation.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

The market is fairly neutral right now, IMO. Either way, that’s a sample size of 6 years with a variable market; I doubt this year somehow has the most beneficial market.

Pros:
Lots of teams still in the playoff hunt
This is a weaker draft, so picks are worth less

Cons:
Multiple scoring wingers on the market
LW is the deepest position in the league
Dorion needs to move salary
Hoffman is having a down year


There are probably more things to consider, but either way I don’t see this market as being more favorable than any market in the past 6 years. I also think it would be extraordinary if Hoffman returned more than any of the above, or even as much as Duchene. Could it happen? Sure. But it’s very unlikely. Worse could even happen, see: Eberle. I don’t think it’s reasonable to discuss either extreme though.

Regardless of the previous offer, a roster player, a prospect, and a pick seems to be the general formula, and the better the player, the worse the other two assets are (and so on). Fabbri+Gunnarsson+2nd/3rd is better than what Oshie got by a lot (Brouwer+Copley+3rd), and Fabbri’s injuries are getting treated like he will never play in the NHL again. Worst case scenario he becomes a 3rd liner that can score and play rough in the corners, and that’s assuming his skating (which is excellent) becomes sub par after an ACL injury. That’s not been the case in most soccer players that I’m aware of (they almost always come back fine), but I’m not sure of a hockey comparable yet.

Again, Duchene returned Bowers + Hammond + 1st + 3rd. I don’t think Hoffman returns that much for multiple reasons, but if he were to return that from the Blues, Kostin (Russian), Binnington, 2nd, and a 3rd would fit the mold (considering Hammond was moreso a cap dump, and STL doesn’t have a 1st). Players like Kostin don’t usually get moved for players like Hoffman, and only rarely had for players like Duchene. Hoffman isn’t a center, and doesn’t have pedigree, position, age, or point totals that Duchene has, though. I’m guessing a lesser prospect, a better roster player, and a 2nd are the return. Fabbri+Gunnarsson+pick fits that. As does Sobotka+Barbashev (Russian)+pick. My guess is that is the kind of package he will return.

Turris? or what ever Turris was valued at from Nashville has to be added to that as well.
Sens gave up Turris , Bowers, Hammond, 1st and 3rd... so that's a substantial piece missing...
Now imo the Sens gave up too much but it was your argument not mine

 

[Vincenzo Arelliti]

Turris? or what ever Turris was valued at from Nashville has to be added to that as well.
Sens gave up Turris , Bowers, Hammond, 1st and 3rd... so that's a substantial piece missing...
Now imo the Sens gave up too much but it was your argument not mine

You’re right, I’ve been forgetting Turris. That Duchene trade is without a doubt the biggest value for a player in at least the past 6 years. It’s astounding.