I specifically pointed out that Varly had injuries in that post. Go back and re-read it. I said " (Varly has a worse GAA and SV % over similar amounts of games... yeah Varly had injuries last year, Picks dealt with a worse defensive team)" Varly has a better defense this season, and Picks dealt with an EJ less D for most of his starts on a team that had given up. I'm not ignoring a thing there.
I've been complaining about Varly for a couple seasons now... my post history on the subject is pretty vast.
I'm not trying hard to compare Picks favorably... I'm saying Picks, on the same team, performed better. Varly hasn't had a single season other than 13-14 where he put up better numbers than his teammates in net. This isn't about Picks, Berra, or JSG though... this is about Varly just not being good. Varly hasn't been replacement level for a while now, and there is a certain time to call a spade a spade.
And I remember that you've complained about Varly for a couple seasons now that's why I remember you wanted to trade him and use Picks as the #1. Something he showed very quickly he wasn't capable of doing. Now we're back to comparing them, either using save percentage in years where Varly played with a groin/hip that needed surgery, or in years where Pickard was a backup.
You have an argument to make that Varly hasn't been good enough, but Varly's numbers from 2016-17 shouldn't be the focus of that argument, since he was playing injured. That makes up the bulk of what we've been talking about.
If you’ve noticed, I haven’t brought up his 2013-14 season once. On top of that, when you’ve brought it up to say we can’t use those numbers, I’ve agreed with you that it was an outlier. For the same reasons you’ve mentioned, that he stood on his head all year, and Roy’s system inflated the Avs shot totals, and therefore inflated his save percentage.
You can’t have it both ways. Focus on his outlier bad season, and take his outlier good season off the table.
I’ve already stated that I think his regular level of play when healthy, is somewhere around his 2014-15 season. Playing well, getting a decent save percentage with a. .921, but not well enough to fix the Avs problems.
When he's not healthy that's another matter, and absolutely a fair concern to have. He may never get over it, and it's a big problem.
Now if you would focus on something like his 2015-16 season, where he was a level below 2014-15, and finished with a .914%, or even his first season in Colorado in 2011-12 where he had a .913%, then that’s a fair argument.
He needed to be better in those seasons, but he wasn’t terrible, and it wasn’t a shortened season where he played with a groin and hip that needed surgery, or this year where we’re only a 1/3 or so into the season.
The end of this year is absolutely fair to judge him on, and if he has another subpar performance, than it’s absolutely fair to criticize him for it. If the team is playing ok, and he still only manages around a .910% or so, then it's also fair to say he wasn't good enough.
But we can’t just pick his best or worsts seasons, that have strong influential factors that lead to those being his best or worst, and only focus on his numbers during that time.
Same with his stats right now this year, when one game can raise or lower his save percentage 10 points like I showed. If he had one or two good weeks, it would change pretty drastically.