Zadorov and Varlamov... what's your analysis?

pylon17

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Jan 19, 2017
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I've caught a handful of Avs games this year but that only tells so much. You guys/girls have been watching this team and these two players for years. Would love to hear your take on Zadorov and Varlamov. What more do they have to give? Likely ceiling? Etc. Thanks
 

Pokecheque

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If you're looking in terms of fantasy pickups, I suggest looking elsewhere.

As for actual hockey, Varly has been decent. Not great, not awful, but decent. He's rarely been the reason the Avs lose games but he's nowhere near his game-stealing form of a few years ago. And he'll likely never reach that again.

As for Zadorov, he continues to be Jared Bednar's pet project. He ran himself into the doghouse big-time at the beginning of this season but has steadily been working his way out. I don't think he'll ever be an elite stopper but if can be more consistent a definite middle- or even top-pair defender. He's got somewhat decent offensive chops, one sequence last night he actually powered through several Tampa guys only to find no one was with him because this team is about the slowest to change in the league. He'll never be known for his offense but he's clearly trying to work it into his game.
 

dahrougem2

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Zadorov has been inconsistent all season long and has made some mind numbingly painful mistakes that cost this team goals. That said, he's also shown signs of being arguably the 2nd best defensemen on this team for short stretches. Bednar doesn't give him a big leash, so it's probably tough for him to really play the way he feels most comfortable.

Varlamov has been... bad. When comparing 29 starting goaltenders in the NHL this season, Varlamov ranks 25th in SV% ahead of only Cam Talbot, Jaroslav Halak, Scott Darling, Craig Anderson (only 29 because I classify James Reimer as a backup as he's ranked 30th, and Vegas hasn't had a consistent full time starter. I used 15 games played as threshold). In terms of G.A.A it's even worse - he's dead last amongst the 29 starters.

Not saying the Avs losing games is Varlamov's fault, but he's bottom-5 in both SV% and G.A.A. He needs to get better if this team has any hope of not being a bottom-3 team.
 

UncleRisto

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If I'm reading this right, several advanced stat metrics suggest that Zadorov and Varlamov are worse than their Ontarian counterparts.

:sarcasm:
 

Foppa2118

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Oct 3, 2003
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Two totally different situations.

The only doubts about Varly are can he stay healthy. If so, he's a great #1. They just need to put a good team, and a good defense in front of him for once. For some reason people set the bar for his success as whether or not he's standing on his head or not. He plays like superman for a while, and the team gets wins. He plays at a normal level, and because the team is still not very good, they lose. That doesn't mean Varly is the problem, it just means he can't be superman every night.

Z needs to find his shift to shift consistency. Any meaningful offensive role might be out the window at this point. Most of his coaches over the years have pretty much only given him the hardass treatment, and harped on his mistakes. This gets him to keep things overly simple, not try to be that dynamic defenseman he's shown flashes of. At some point he'll start to accept he's just a defensive defenseman, and I think we're pretty close to that point. The rest of this season will probably determine what role he thinks he needs to play in the NHL.

If he accepts that he's just a defensive defenseman, and he finds consistency in that role, and his physical game, then he can still at least be a solid bottom 4 defenseman with guys like EJ, Girard, Makar, potentially Timmins, etc carrying the offensive load. If he can't be more than just ok defensively, and he doesn't have any confidence in his offense on top of that, then that's when things start to get disappointing.
 
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pylon17

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I really like Zadorov. It's too bad Bednar is the coach. Z would look completely different playing for a veteran coach with a track record. And that's just the coach! MacKinnon is looking otherworldly btw which u already knew.
 

henchman21

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The only doubts about Varly are can he stay healthy. If so, he's a great #1. They just need to put a good team, and a good defense in front of him for once. For some reason people set the bar for his success as whether or not he's standing on his head or not. He plays like superman for a while, and the team gets wins. He plays at a normal level, and because the team is still not very good, they lose. That doesn't mean Varly is the problem, it just means he can't be superman every night.

Varly has only been a great #1 in 13-14, which is looking more and more like an anomaly rather than how good he really is. Nobody is asking Varly to stand on his head... people are asking for a .910-.915 sv percentage, and he'd be getting next to no flack. There are worse defenses out there, and Varly is bottom of the pack right now. We should be past excuses for him at this point.
 

McMetal

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Varley hasn't been amazing this year, but I think doubts about his ability to be a #1 are very overblown.

As for Z, I wish he had a longer leash, but I think he's always going to have occasional bad brain farts. Hopefully his good games will override his bad ones, and his offensive uptick is encouraging as well. He'll never be a PPQB but hopefully he can get to a decent level of production eventually.
 

Foppa2118

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Varly has only been a great #1 in 13-14, which is looking more and more like an anomaly rather than how good he really is. Nobody is asking Varly to stand on his head... people are asking for a .910-.915 sv percentage, and he'd be getting next to no flack. There are worse defenses out there, and Varly is bottom of the pack right now. We should be past excuses for him at this point.

See my comment about him being healthy. It's pretty clear he was battling hip/groin injuries post 13-14, and had injury issues before that in Washington.

Nobody was saying anything about Varly when he was standing on his head getting the team undeserved wins earlier in the season. Now that he's back to a human level, and the team is playing poorly and losing due to defensive breakdowns, not bad goals, the same people who have pushed for him to be traded in favor of Pickard are back to criticizing him based on his numbers.

This team is not as good as people thought it was earlier in the season when they were winning. They took a small step forward improving the defense, and took another (temporary) step back getting so young, and making young mistakes. Varly covered up A LOT of these mistakes, but nobody noticed.
 
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dahrougem2

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When was Varlamov standing on his head getting us wins earlier in the season? The only games he's truly stolen for us were the season opener vs NYR and the 60 shot game vs Carolina. He's allowed 3 or more goals in 10 of his 17 starts; in 6 of those 10 games, he's allowed 4 or more.

He's been bad this season, and it has to change if this team has any hopes of getting away from bottom-3 status.
 

Foppa2118

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When was Varlamov standing on his head getting us wins earlier in the season? The only games he's truly stolen for us were the season opener vs NYR and the 60 shot game vs Carolina. He's allowed 3 or more goals in 10 of his 17 starts; in 6 of those 10 games, he's allowed 4 or more.

He's been bad this season, and it has to change if this team has any hopes of getting away from bottom-3 status.

Both him and Bernier were outstanding earlier in the year, have you really forgotten that already?
 

Cousin Eddie

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I really like Zadorov. It's too bad Bednar is the coach. Z would look completely different playing for a veteran coach with a track record. And that's just the coach! MacKinnon is looking otherworldly btw which u already knew.
He's been a hell of a lot better under Bednar than he has under Roy, Bylsma and Nolan. Probably has a lot more to do with Zadorov entering his prime growth years than coaching, but I don't think Bednar is exactly holding him back.
 

Pokecheque

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I really like Zadorov. It's too bad Bednar is the coach. Z would look completely different playing for a veteran coach with a track record. And that's just the coach! MacKinnon is looking otherworldly btw which u already knew.

I'll disagree with you there. While I have serious reservations about Bednar and have made them known, I don't necessarily think he's mishandled Zadorov. If he's messing up the handling of a defenseman, it's Mark Barberio, for completely different reasons.
 

Ivan13

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Varly has only been a great #1 in 13-14, which is looking more and more like an anomaly rather than how good he really is. Nobody is asking Varly to stand on his head... people are asking for a .910-.915 sv percentage, and he'd be getting next to no flack. There are worse defenses out there, and Varly is bottom of the pack right now. We should be past excuses for him at this point.
Yeah, I don't get how is he a great starter. He's been constantly bugged with injuries and playing like a low end starter, nothing about him save for SO is great for quite a while.
 

Ceremony

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They're both top, top boys. Zadorov will have a Chara-esque career and Varlamov is the best goalie we've had since Roy who's had his prime wasted by inept coaching and management. I love both of them.
 

Moosehead1

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It would be interesting for me to see the percentage of goals that have gone in this year after Varly made the first save. I feel like we can count on him to make the first save but we can't count on the team defense to help him make the second.

IMO Varly is a good goalie on a team with bad defensive structure. Put him on a team with good defensive structure and he'd be phenomenal.
 

The Mars Volchenkov

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Mar 31, 2002
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Z will always probably make mistakes, but the Avs shitty goaltending is hurting him. Only Karlsson has a lower on ice save percentage than him among D that have played 20 games. Ottawa is also getting bad goaltending. He's the only Avs D that has been on the ice for more shots for than against. His advanced #'s are strong compared to the team, and his shot generation has been good. Obviously he's inconsistent and can frustrate people but when he's on the ice, the Avs do a lot better compared to the rest of the D.

Varly...how much longer do we keep thinking he's the #1 going forward? The Avs goalie situation in general is scary. I'm sure the D situation doesn't help but his #'s once again are poor.
 

ABasin

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When was Varlamov standing on his head getting us wins earlier in the season? The only games he's truly stolen for us were the season opener vs NYR and the 60 shot game vs Carolina. He's allowed 3 or more goals in 10 of his 17 starts; in 6 of those 10 games, he's allowed 4 or more.

He's been bad this season, and it has to change if this team has any hopes of getting away from bottom-3 status.

Not "standing on his head" does not mean he didn't play really well. He's played quite well in more than 2 games.

My issue with Varlamov isn't that he hasn't had a number of excellent games this season (he has), it's that aside from his first two games of the year, he hasn't had 2 really good games in a row. In fact, his tendency has been to have a really good game, followed by a stinker. It's like he's 'on' every other start. Check out his save%'s in October/November:

.949
1.000
.870
.943
.882
.919
.667
.950
.892
.875
.933
.792
.939

There are six games in there where he's over .930. Which of course is quite good. There are also six games in there where he's under .900. Which of course is not good.

One oddity which I notice, is that if we look at every one of Varlamov's 'good' games (.919% and above), that game was played with at least 3 days rest since his prior start. Not sure if that really means anything, but there you are.

So, random question for the group:

Which is better - a goaltender who plays .930/.890 every other start; or a goaltender who plays .910 all of the time?
 
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21

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Judging goalies is incredibly difficult even among "experts". The Avs are in a long rebuilding phase, almost like Oilers/Leafs/Islanders got stuck in the past (ok, not that bad yet but it could be).

Only watching the goalie stats is dangerous for poor teams. Usually that's how they are judged by the experts though, by the goalie stats instead of analysing their game, talent, passion, heart, winner attitude and potential.

One example: Is Lehner (one hell of a passioned goalie) the main reason why the Sabres loosing?

Answer: No, actually, he has been great in many games but I'm pretty sure his days are counted there anyway, usually the goalies are blamed.

Other teams standing out for countless goalie failures in the past is the Leafs, Islanders and the Oilers, not until now they found some stability but people tend to forget they have much better players right now. Oilers have been struggling so far this year though.

You can also put it this way: The Avs having tried Varlamov now a number of seasons but it didn't work out? Maybe it's time for a change, trying another goalie (almost like the Duchene situation)? You can say that Varlamov is too inconsistent but you can also say that about the entire team.

I want to give Varlamov this season and next one, then I'm done. ;-)

Also the mental part is incredibly important, winner attitude, passion, heart and I don't know this guy enough, Varlamov. You want a goalie out there giving it all, ready to die for winning, a true psycho, like Roy. I feel the Avs have become too soft in general, watching them live in Sweden I cried a little bit, playing like a SHL team. (Ok, this was a lie, I enjoyed watching them but they played too soft.)

(I rarely watch SHL any longer unless it's playoffs because it's too soft and boring.) Not sure how to solve this, maybe only paying 50% in salary for every game loosing? ;-) I want more fighting spirit.
 
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Foppa2118

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It would be interesting for me to see the percentage of goals that have gone in this year after Varly made the first save. I feel like we can count on him to make the first save but we can't count on the team defense to help him make the second.

IMO Varly is a good goalie on a team with bad defensive structure. Put him on a team with good defensive structure and he'd be phenomenal.

Nicely done, you're seeing how the goals are going in, instead of looking at numbers.
 
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Nalens Oga

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Judging goalies is incredibly difficult even among "experts". The Avs are in a long rebuilding phase, almost like Oilers/Leafs/Islanders got stuck in the past (ok, not that bad yet but it could be).

Literally the only way to judge a goalie is to watch them constantly imo, I believe in advanced stats but not for goalies as of yet. I think they can only be helpful for the really good or really bad goalies, for all the guys in the middle, you have to watch them and that's been impossible since the league went 20+ teams.
 

Foppa2118

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Varly has only been a great #1 in 13-14, which is looking more and more like an anomaly rather than how good he really is. Nobody is asking Varly to stand on his head... people are asking for a .910-.915 sv percentage, and he'd be getting next to no flack. There are worse defenses out there, and Varly is bottom of the pack right now. We should be past excuses for him at this point.

By the way, all you have to do is go back and watch the goals he’s given up in the last four games, to see why any complaints are without merit. Not one of them is even close to a bad goal. They are perfect shots, wide open men, breakaways, bad turnovers, unlucky bounces, deflections, and perfect screens. All of them.

These are the kinds of goals bad teams give up. Unless your goaltender is standing on his head every night, he’s going to let in these goals, and his numbers are going to suffer unless he’s facing 40+ shots every night to make up for it.

If his team gives up 3 goals like most bad teams will do more often than not, then he’s got to face 36 shots to get a .915 percentage. This is higher than the average shots against for any team in the league.

If he instead faces 30 shots, which is still a lot, then he only finishes with a .900 save percentage.

If they give up 4 goals in a game like they have been, then he’s got to face 48 shots just to get a .915%. This is if you take save percentage as gospel in terms of judging all goaltenders on both good and bad teams.

Case in point why just looking at save percentage to tell the story is a bad idea, he’s got a .871, .912, and a .889 the last three losses, despite giving up goals that he’d have to stand on his head to save.

On top of all that, people are basing their opinion of his performance, off his numbers in a 18 game sample size.

Case in point why this is a bad idea, if you take out that disaster Vegas game where they lost 7-0, he goes from a 3.14 GAA and .905 save percentage on the season, to a 2.91 GAA and .914 save percentage.

Exactly what you’re asking his season save percentage to be. Just based on one game.
 
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henchman21

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By the way, all you have to do is go back and watch the goals he’s given up in the last four games, to see why any complaints are without merit. Not one of them is even close to a bad goal. They are perfect shots, wide open men, breakaways, bad turnovers, unlucky bounces, deflections, and perfect screens. All of them.

These are the kinds of goals bad teams give up. Unless your goaltender is standing on his head every night, he’s going to let in these goals, and his numbers are going to suffer unless he’s facing 40+ shots every night to make up for it.

If his team gives up 3 goals like most bad teams will do more often than not, then he’s got to face 36 shots to get a .915 percentage. This is higher than the average shots against for any team in the league.

If he instead faces 30 shots, which is still a lot, then he only finishes with a .900 save percentage.

If they give up 4 goals in a game like they have been, then he’s got to face 48 shots just to get a .915%. This is if you take save percentage as gospel in terms of judging all goaltenders on both good and bad teams.

Case in point why just looking at save percentage to tell the story is a bad idea, he’s got a .871, .912, and a .889 the last three losses, despite giving up goals that he’d have to stand on his head to save.

On top of all that, people are basing their opinion of his performance, off his numbers in a 18 game sample size.

Case in point why this is a bad idea, if you take out that disaster Vegas game where they lost 7-0, he goes from a 3.14 GAA and .905 save percentage on the season, to a 2.91 GAA and .914 save percentage.

Exactly what you’re asking his season save percentage to be. Just based on one game.

I'm a big eye test guy, but Varly isn't coming close to sniffing that either. He has given up plenty of bad goals this and past seasons. There are always bounces and bad luck goals that happen to every goalie, over time they balance out. The last 2+ seasons Varly has been at .908. That is bad, really bad for a starting NHL goalie. Over that time, Varly has played 99 games. There have been 42 other goalies that have played 75 games... Varly is 37th in save percentage only beating out Niemi, Lehtonen, Ward, Condon, and Domingue (funny enough Bernier is just a sliver ahead). The number of .915 that I threw out would put him around the likes of Markstrom, Greiss, Riemer, Halak, Darling, Rask, Rinne, Talbot, Anderson, Allen, Smith etc. Some good starters in there, but few world beaters. The range between .914 and .916 encompasses numbers 16-30 on that 42 goalie list. It isn't like that is asking the world, or even top 10... It is asking him to be NHL starter level in that area.

Part of what you're illustrating with the shots really fits my argument that Roy's system greatly inflated goalie stats. The statistical proof is there, and it is plain as day. Berra, Pickard, and Varly all produced good numbers under Roy. 2 of the 3 are not in the league right now (though Picks should be), and all have dropped off away from Roy. People go back to the 13-15 Varly seasons (even if Varly had some struggles in 14-15, he was solid), see what he did there, and think Varly is that level of goalie. I think it was a mirage and the perfect timing for that to happen. He has the physical talent to be that goalie, but has puck tracking issues and has always had injury issues. The latter might be catching up to him. It is still early in the season, but I don't think he looks as athletic as he used to be... and I don't think he is a goalie that will deal with lesser athleticism well.

Over the past 2+ seasons, I haven't seen Varly as a starting capable goalie. He has great moments and flashes, but he doesn't look like a good, or even average NHL starting goalie over that time frame. Combine that with is 5.9m cap hit, I'm sorry, but the expectation should be at least above average. If he can't hit that, you're better off paying between 3-4m for an average starter, and using the extra 2-3m on depth. I've argued this for years.
 

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