Here is what I am saying ---
- If you spend any time looking at draft data, it is very clear that the top 3 picks are where most good players come from in the draft. (overwhelmingly so)
- The NHL intentionally made it harder for teams to acquire top 3 picks by adjusting the lottery format.
- Detroit despite being a bad team for the last 4-5 years, has had no top 3 picks.
The above 3 statements are facts. If we can accept those facts, we can understand the difficulty of the task at hand. For whoever the GM is.
NOW....
Yzerman has done a good job with the top pick in his first 2 drafts. Raymond and Seider may both be guys that out-perform their draft position in a significant way (really don't like even talking about this stuff this early).
But what is the expectation... that Yzerman does this 1-2 more times in a row with the top pick? So 4-5 years in a row of getting guys that out-perform draft position in a meaningful way, and no misses (with our top pick)?
Just understand, if you actually look at league-wide draft data, this is not a realistic expectation to have. We have had a good start so far. We might pull it off. Hell, frankly, it's what we are going to need to do. But I don't think most people understand the difficulty involved in pulling that off and how much defying the odds are needed.
We do have trades, later round draft picks, and free agency as other avenues to build the team as well. But I think most of re-building typically comes down to your drafting in the 1st round. I can understand the criticism of some of the trades so far, or some of the later round picks. But I think it's hard to argue with how the team has drafted with their highest picks with Yzerman so far.
