Salary Cap: You've never heard of the HFBoard Pens? It did the Kessel Run in 982 posts Part IX

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BustaKapanen

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May 14, 2011
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Just looking at cap, it's feasible for 2015-16 but becomes less feasible the next season as both Perron (UFA) and Maatta (RFA) will need new contracts. (Looking at recent history, the cap is unlikely to rise sufficiently to cover a bridge contract for Maatta much less Perron's likely raise added to it.)

Perron (3.8) Crosby (8.7) Hornqvist (4.25)
XXX () Malkin (9.5) Kessel (8)
Dupuis (3.75) XXX () Bennett (0.945)
Wilson (0.875) Sundqvist (0.926) League Min (0.675)
League Min (0.675)

Maatta (0.894) Letang (7.5)
Pouliot (1.288) Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (0.945) Cole (2)
League Min (0.675)
Scuderi Buyout (1.292)

Fleury (5.575)
Zatkoff (0.6)

Total $63.965M with ~$7M cap space for 2LW and 3C assuming $71M cap

Adding Spaling at 3C results in ~$4.8M in cap space for 2LW.

Even with Kessel, the Pens are missing a top 6 winger, any type of productive bottom 6, and at least a #3 defender plus they no longer have cap space to upgrade any of those positions over the next two seasons or the assets to improve those positions through trade or internally. People deriding depth which includes the rest of the team outside of one line of Malkin/Crosby-Kessel haven't been paying attention to the modern game.

EDIT: Assumes something like Kapanen, 2016 1st, Sutter, Harrington for Kessel, Kunitz traded for picks, and Scuderi bought out.
In a perfect world you find a suitor for scuderi for anything even if it's minimal retained better than a buyout every lil matters as we found out this year. Perron better have career year if he's going to get much more . by then lovejoy is gone maata only 1 looking at solid raise. If cap rises it's definitely workable.
 

Mike Lange Version 2

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Jun 8, 2015
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Just looking at cap, it's feasible for 2015-16 but becomes less feasible the next season as both Perron (UFA) and Maatta (RFA) will need new contracts. (Looking at recent history, the cap is unlikely to rise sufficiently to cover a bridge contract for Maatta much less Perron's likely raise added to it.)

Perron (3.8) Crosby (8.7) Hornqvist (4.25)
XXX () Malkin (9.5) Kessel (8)
Dupuis (3.75) XXX () Bennett (0.945)
Wilson (0.875) Sundqvist (0.926) League Min (0.675)
League Min (0.675)

Maatta (0.894) Letang (7.5)
Pouliot (1.288) Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (0.945) Cole (2)
League Min (0.675)
Scuderi Buyout (1.292)

Fleury (5.575)
Zatkoff (0.6)

Total $63.965M with ~$7M cap space for 2LW and 3C assuming $71M cap

Adding Spaling at 3C results in ~$4.8M in cap space for 2LW.

Even with Kessel, the Pens are missing a top 6 winger, any type of productive bottom 6, and at least a #3 defender plus they no longer have cap space to upgrade any of those positions over the next two seasons or the assets to improve those positions through trade or internally. People deriding depth which includes the rest of the team outside of one line of Malkin/Crosby-Kessel haven't been paying attention to the modern game.

EDIT: Assumes something like Kapanen, 2016 1st, Sutter, Harrington for Kessel, Kunitz traded for picks, and Scuderi bought out.

If we could somehow dump scuderi's contract and spaling, that would be 10.4 million. we could reasonably afford someone like soderberg/fehr and stafford/beleskey as the 3C and 2LW, and might be able to afford a little bit more for those last 2 roster spots.

Your top 3 lines:
PCH
Beleskey-Malkin-Kessel
Duper-Fehr-Bennett

Its optimistic, but that offense would be amazing
 

drpepper

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Dec 10, 2013
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If we could somehow dump scuderi's contract and spaling, that would be 10.4 million. we could reasonably afford someone like soderberg/fehr and stafford/beleskey as the 3C and 2LW, and might be able to afford a little bit more for those last 2 roster spots.

Your top 3 lines:
PCH
Beleskey-Malkin-Kessel
Duper-Fehr-Bennett

Its optimistic, but that offense would be amazing

EDIT: Nevermind, I can't read.

Scuderi would only be moved if the Pens are retaining salary (~$1M). At that point saving 200K isn't likely to make a difference.

Without Spaling but with Scuderi's buyout, the Pens would have ~$7M.


How are you fitting Soderberg and Stafford or Beleskey and Fehr?

There would be only $7M to sign both of either set of players.
 

Mike Lange Version 2

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Jun 8, 2015
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Houston, TX
Of the 8 other teams...what's the best they would be willing to offer, you think?

Saw the board, seems montreal would offer Galchenyuk + Beaulieu + DLR +1st? Something of the sort.

Philly, montreal, minnesota, and PIT are the 4 realistic teams, and philly doesnt have defense to offer. Could anyone imagine montreal and toronto being trade partners though?
 

Mike Lange Version 2

Registered User
Jun 8, 2015
940
37
Houston, TX
How are you fitting Soderberg and Stafford or Beleskey and Fehr?

There would be only $7M to sign both of either set of players.

7? Tell me how you get to that number. Subtracting a little above the league mins for the other 3, i got a little above 8.

3.75 x 4 for Fehr
4.5 x 4 for Beleskey?

Might be slightly over but thats what I was thinking.

EDIT: Yeah, i know it would be difficult. One can dream
 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

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Sep 5, 2008
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I still maintain that if we're spending huge to land a winger, and make no mistake Kessel's not coming cheap, there are far better options out there. JVR, Hall, ROR, all rumored to be available. Each has their pros and cons as far as acquisition goes, but Kessel's one-dimensional game and insane contract is enough to turn me away from the possibility of him being a 40g guy in our top six. I think JVR would be a better fit on this team, and his contract is infinitely better. Hall's just a ****ing stud and will be around for longer than Sid or Geno. ROR's extremely well-rounded and versatile, and can put up 30g/70pts production.
 

penguins2946*

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Teams don't win without a productive bottom 6.

But our bottom-6 wouldn't be bad though. It's not like we'd be throwing out 6 Adams.

Comeau would be too expensive with Kessel.

Uh no he wouldn't, and I don't know how that's related at all to what I said. I don't see Comeau getting more than $1.5 million on his next deal. Comeau-Malkin-Kessel would be more than a good enough 2nd line.

The Pens won't have a top 6 player in the pipeline to develop if Kapanen is part of the Kessel trade or alternatively Pouliot will go out and they won't have a #3D to develop. It's surprisingly hard to develop talent when the Pens highest picks will be 2015 2nd (provided it's not traded) and a 2016 3rd.

Does it even matter if we don't have a potential top-6 winger (even though we still would in Bennett)? We'd have 3 of 4 spots locked up long term in Kessel, Hornqvist and Perron (hopefully). We'd have more than enough time to draft and develop another top-6 winger before we'd need one. The top-6 wingers wouldn't be even remotely an issue until Kessel slows down. We'd need to draft and develop bottom-6 forwards at that point, because Kessel, Hornqvist and Perron is a good enough top-6 wing group that they don't really need another actual top-6 forward. If it's such an issue though, just draft someone like Korostelev or trade up to a mid 30s pick to draft Sprong. There's your Kapanen replacement.

Pouliot is probably not going to be included, so it's a moot point.

The Pens not signing a top 4 defenseman and relying on Maatta and Letang to stay healthy and play 25+ min a game seems like monumental stupidity using the Pens last two seasons as a template.

Whether or not you think it's stupid is irrelevant because I don't see any reason to think the Pens will be doing otherwise.
 

penzweiser

Registered User
Jan 26, 2013
874
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Just looking at cap, it's feasible for 2015-16 but becomes less feasible the next season as both Perron (UFA) and Maatta (RFA) will need new contracts. (Looking at recent history, the cap is unlikely to rise sufficiently to cover a bridge contract for Maatta much less Perron's likely raise added to it.)

Perron (3.8) Crosby (8.7) Hornqvist (4.25)
XXX () Malkin (9.5) Kessel (8)
Dupuis (3.75) XXX () Bennett (0.945)
Wilson (0.875) Sundqvist (0.926) League Min (0.675)
League Min (0.675)

Maatta (0.894) Letang (7.5)
Pouliot (1.288) Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (0.945) Cole (2)
League Min (0.675)
Scuderi Buyout (1.292)

Fleury (5.575)
Zatkoff (0.6)

Total $63.965M with ~$7M cap space for 2LW and 3C assuming $71M cap

Adding Spaling at 3C results in ~$4.8M in cap space for 2LW.

Even with Kessel, the Pens are missing a top 6 winger, any type of productive bottom 6, and at least a #3 defender plus they no longer have cap space to upgrade any of those positions over the next two seasons or the assets to improve those positions through trade or internally. People deriding depth which includes the rest of the team outside of one line of Malkin/Crosby-Kessel haven't been paying attention to the modern game.

EDIT: Assumes something like Kapanen, 2016 1st, Sutter, Harrington for Kessel, Kunitz traded for picks, and Scuderi bought out.

I would try and get Scuderi included in the leafs trade and add something like a prospect like rust or a 2016 4th for them to take him. That would save us an additional 1.292mill.
 

drpepper

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Dec 10, 2013
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7? Tell me how you get to that number. Subtracting a little above the league mins for the other 3, i got a little above 8.

3.75 x 4 for Fehr
4.5 x 4 for Beleskey?

Might be slightly over but thats what I was thinking.

Perron (3.8) Crosby (8.7) Hornqvist (4.25)
XXX () Malkin (9.5) Kessel (8)
Dupuis (3.75) XXX () Bennett (0.945)
Wilson (0.875) Sundqvist (0.926) League Min (0.675)
League Min (0.675)

Maatta (0.894) Letang (7.5)
Pouliot (1.288) Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (0.945) Cole (2)
League Min (0.675)
Scuderi Buyout (1.292)

Fleury (5.575)
Zatkoff (0.6)

Total: $63.965M
Cap (with Canadian dollar and 5% inflator): $71M
Cap space: $7.035

Without Spaling, Beleskey and Fehr at $8.2M wouldn't fit under a $71M cap.

I don't think it is possible to get rid of Scuderi without retaining salary. And Beleskey and Fehr at $8.2M only fit if Scuderi is gone with no retention or the cap is higher.
 

penguins2946*

Guest
I also see no reason why bringing in Kessel would put us in a cap crunch with Maatta and Perron. Perron isn't going to be over $5 million, and even if Maatta doesn't get bridged, he won't be over $4.5 million (using comparables handed out in the last year). The cap would have to decrease or we'd have to be incredibly stupid and not let young players play for that to be an issue. With adding absolutely no one other than players we currently have the rights to, a roster for next year of:

Perron-Crosby-Hornqvist
Comeau-Malkin-Kessel
Dupuis-Spaling-Bennett
Wilson-Sundqvist-Rust

Maatta-Letang
Pouliot-Lovejoy
Dumoulin-Cole

Would be a very good team. Ideally you bring in a stopgap 2nd pair LD to bump Pouliot down and swap Cole and Lovejoy and bring in a 2014 Comeau like player for the 4th line to bump Rust out of the lineup. It's certainly doable. Lets say we re-sign Comeau ($1.5 million), Cole ($2 million), Dumoulin ($900k) and Bennett ($900k), trade Kunitz and Sutter and buyout Scuderi. That 20 man roster (including Fleury-Zatkoff) would cost $65.1 million. That's around $6 million to bring in a stopgap 2nd pair LD, a 4th line RW and another depth forward.
 
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billybudd

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Feb 1, 2012
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Teams don't win without a productive bottom 6 and a much better defense.

Comeau would be too expensive with Kessel.

You had us with 7 million for 2 spots, correct?

If we sign Comeau for a mil 5 and put him opposite Dupuis, that third line starts to look pretty productive. So now you're at $5.5 for a 3C and 2LW (edit: actually more, because Bennett's on Toronto). More realistically, you're at $4.7 for a 3C because there isn't a 2LW out there that won't be a bad value in free agency. Still playing ring around the rosie with stopgaps in one spot in the top six, but that's going to happen even if we do spend money there. We've finally got the makings of a third line for the first time in years.

Or you keep Spaling and use him as a high forward between two quality wings for the role. That gives us $3.3, which is plenty for hot shot college or European UFAs.

Or you make Perron part of the package. Is Kessel worse for a roster at $8 million than Perron at 5 or 6 (which is likely what he'll be after this year)?

I mean, a roster as top heavy as one with Kessel in it is not what I want, but the Penguins are well through the looking glass as far as not being constructed how I want.

Edit: before someone asks me where Bennett is, in a Kessel trade, he's headed to the Leafs. They hired an analytics guy last summer who loves him the way RRP does.
 

IronLore

Registered User
May 3, 2015
92
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Not saying I'd do it, but...

Trade: Kapanen, Pouliot, Sutter, Scuderi for Kessel, 2016 Pens 2nd
Offer sheet Saad, lose 2016 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Trade Kunitz for pick
Let young guys fill out roster

Saad (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Hornqvist (4.25)
Perron (3.8) - Malkin (9.5) - Kessel (8)
Bennett (1.2) - Spaling (2.2) - Dupuis (3.75)
Wilson (.7) - Sundqvist (.7) - Rust (.7)

Maatta (.9) - Letang (7.25)
Cole (2) - Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (.9) - Harrington (.6)

Fleury (5.75)
Zatkoff (.6)

$68.6 million hit
 

drpepper

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Dec 10, 2013
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But our bottom-6 wouldn't be bad though. It's not like we'd be throwing out 6 Adams.



Uh no he wouldn't, and I don't know how that's related at all to what I said. I don't see Comeau getting more than $1.5 million on his next deal. Comeau-Malkin-Kessel would be more than a good enough 2nd line.



Does it even matter if we don't have a potential top-6 winger (even though we still would in Bennett)? We'd have 3 of 4 spots locked up long term in Kessel, Hornqvist and Perron (hopefully). We'd have more than enough time to draft and develop another top-6 winger before we'd need one. The top-6 wingers wouldn't be even remotely an issue until Kessel slows down. We'd need to draft and develop bottom-6 forwards at that point, because Kessel, Hornqvist and Perron is a good enough top-6 wing group that they don't really need another actual top-6 forward. If it's such an issue though, just draft someone like Korostelev or trade up to a mid 30s pick to draft Sprong. There's your Kapanen replacement.

Pouliot is probably not going to be included, so it's a moot point.



Whether or not you think it's stupid is irrelevant because I don't see any reason to think the Pens will be doing otherwise.

Comeau is one of the few decent wingers available as a UFA. Unless he's giving a team a discount, he will be making more than 1.5M. In addition, your original post had him in the bottom 6 with an open 2LW on Malkin's line. Paying for a 2LW and Comeau @ $2M in the bottom 6 wouldn't fit. Moving Comeau to the top 6 closes one hole and leaves a big gaping one in the bottom 6.

The 4th line is likely not good (as you moved Comeau to the top 6). The third line might be ok. But there are huge risks at every spot on that line.

Again, you fail to consider the cap implications the following year when Perron and Maatta need to be re-signed. The Pens only have 3 of 4 top 6 wingers if Perron recovers and can be retained. Also you seem to have surprising faith in the Pens ability to draft and develop a forward.

Well, it wouldn't be the first time that the Pens ignored common sense and risk management on the defense.

EDIT:

The cap isn't likely to rise more than $4M this season; it was 4.7M the season before. If there are similar increases for the 2016-17 season that is barely enough to cover Maatta's bridge contract much less a raise for Perron (who could conceivably get around 5-5.5M) and re-signing any other RFAs or signing other UFAs.
 
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SEALBound

Fancy Gina Carano
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Jun 13, 2010
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Not saying I'd do it, but...

Trade: Kapanen, Pouliot, Sutter, Scuderi for Kessel, 2016 Pens 2nd
Offer sheet Saad, lose 2016 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Trade Kunitz for pick
Let young guys fill out roster

Saad (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Hornqvist (4.25)
Perron (3.8) - Malkin (9.5) - Kessel (8)
Bennett (1.2) - Spaling (2.2) - Dupuis (3.75)
Wilson (.7) - Sundqvist (.7) - Rust (.7)

Maatta (.9) - Letang (7.25)
Cole (2) - Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (.9) - Harrington (.6)

Fleury (5.75)
Zatkoff (.6)

$68.6 million hit

That's WAY too much for Kessel. No way. No way, no way, nooooooooo way (meaning KK+Pouliot)

People are overvaluing Kessel. Remember when everyone thought Iginla would go for a King's ransom...and he goes for a 1st+2 b prospects? Same thing is gonna happen here.
 
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Ogelthorpe

Who do you play for?
Jul 21, 2010
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That much is obvious. It's not just about his cap hit, it's about his cap hit coupled with what it'd take to acquire him. Toronto isn't giving Kessel away, it's going to take a significant package to get him, regardless of how his relationship with the Toronto media is.

And this is exactly why the Pens should not pursue Kessel. If we are giving up good assets to acquire someone, Kessel should not be our target.
 

pensfan71

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
15,725
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Guys....in all reality we're not going to come close to touching Kessel and Saad...ever...
 

Ogelthorpe

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Jul 21, 2010
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Not saying I'd do it, but...

Trade: Kapanen, Pouliot, Sutter, Scuderi for Kessel, 2016 Pens 2nd
Offer sheet Saad, lose 2016 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Trade Kunitz for pick
Let young guys fill out roster

Saad (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Hornqvist (4.25)
Perron (3.8) - Malkin (9.5) - Kessel (8)
Bennett (1.2) - Spaling (2.2) - Dupuis (3.75)
Wilson (.7) - Sundqvist (.7) - Rust (.7)

Maatta (.9) - Letang (7.25)
Cole (2) - Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (.9) - Harrington (.6)

Fleury (5.75)
Zatkoff (.6)

$68.6 million hit

And after all of this, our prospect pool May as well be Bethel Park's Varsity team.
 

penguins2946*

Guest
Comeau is one of the few decent wingers available as a UFA. Unless he's giving a team a discount, he will be making more than 1.5M. In addition, your original post had him in the bottom 6 with an open 2LW on Malkin's line. Paying for a 2LW and Comeau @ $2M in the bottom 6 wouldn't fit. Moving Comeau to the top 6 closes one hole and leaves a big gaping one in the bottom 6.

What support do you have that Comeau will be making more than that? Because there have been quotes that Comeau would like to stay for cheap. That's what I'm basing signing him for cheap off of. Even if we doesn't, we don't need someone expensive there. Re-sign Downie for cheap and put him there. Re-sign Winnik. Sign literally any non offensively incompetent winger for cheap.

The 4th line is likely not good (as you moved Comeau to the top 6). The third line might be ok. But there are huge risks at every spot on that line.

You know, we could also sign someone else in free agency. 2014 Comeau isn't a rare player, they are commonly found in free agency for cheap.

Again, you fail to consider the cap implications the following year when Perron and Maatta need to be re-signed. The Pens only have 3 of 4 top 6 wingers if Perron recovers and can be retained. Also you seem to have surprising faith in the Pens ability to draft and develop a forward.

They don't need to draft and develop anything more than a bottom-6 forward, which they have done in Bennett, Sundqvist, Wilson, Rust, Kennedy and such. Maatta and Perron won't be getting very large raises after this deal. The cap would have to drop significantly for that to be an issue.
 

pensfan71

Registered User
Jun 9, 2010
15,725
1,604
Not saying I'd do it, but...

Trade: Kapanen, Pouliot, Sutter, Scuderi for Kessel, 2016 Pens 2nd
Offer sheet Saad, lose 2016 1st, 2nd, 3rd
Trade Kunitz for pick
Let young guys fill out roster

Saad (6) - Crosby (8.7) - Hornqvist (4.25)
Perron (3.8) - Malkin (9.5) - Kessel (8)
Bennett (1.2) - Spaling (2.2) - Dupuis (3.75)
Wilson (.7) - Sundqvist (.7) - Rust (.7)

Maatta (.9) - Letang (7.25)
Cole (2) - Lovejoy (1.1)
Dumoulin (.9) - Harrington (.6)

Fleury (5.75)
Zatkoff (.6)

$68.6 million hit

What young guys...you just traded all our good ones...that defense = #GetRekt
 

KIRK

Registered User
Aug 2, 2005
109,700
51,216
well, i mean, if that's how trade works, then Toronto should be trading Kessel (50% retained) to us for Lovejoy or something

Just because the Penguins brain trust thought Lovejoy = Despres doesn't mean Shanny and company will see it similarly. :D
 
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