TSN: Yost: The Jets are this season’s biggest disappointment

[Whileee]

Hey, you left out Top 6 phenom Drew Stafford for some reason! Oh wait...

Tracking by cap hit inflates Myers, Stafford and Enstrom's values to the team which is where most of that $10M comes from. Little's actually worth his cap hit, so that 6 weeks without him hurt.

But like I said, the Jets' record before and after the dark times of injuries and tough scheduling is pretty much the same as their record after.

I was just too lazy to figure out how many games he was injured, benched or with the Bruins. Frankly, I count his games injured as a net benefit to the Jets this season, all things considered.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

team only one 3 in a row once this year. team was a huge disappointment. just couldn't get consistency.

 

[Whileee]

I see. This is pretty much exactly what I meant. Your first and only talking point in there has been the only thing that could possibly be spun in a positive direction. Which seems to be the goal. I prefer dealing in reality.

No where did I say injuries don't have an impact. ever. you are now trying to imply that is my position. It's never going to work with me.

I think you'll find that my post history is not as unbalanced as you seem to think.

A discussion board needs balanced discussion or it becomes an echo chamber. If all anyone wants is an echo chamber about the negatives, then it's not very interesting to me.

Here is your first statement about injuries, indicating that you viewed them as "the latest excuse". Perhaps that overstates your dismissiveness of the impact of injuries, but I think it speaks for itself.

Mentioning them sure, but we haven't had significant injuries since the first 3rd of the season. It's the latest excuse.

 

[Neuf]

As a hockey fan, I'm embarrassed by Colorado.

 

[LoveNHL]

As a hockey fan, I'm embarrassed by Colorado.

True

 

[Aavco Cup]

One thought about shot metrics this season. Trouba is no longer propping up Stu.

When we were running:

Chiarot Buff
Enstrom Myers
Stu Trouba

our D corp was likely able to more consistently hold their own in that area. With Trouba missing 1/4 of the season and Myers missing everything since then we have basically run a very subpar third pairing all season, irrespective of the injuries to the forward group.

 

[pucka lucka]

I think you'll find that my post history is not as unbalanced as you seem to think.

A discussion board needs balanced discussion or it becomes an echo chamber. If all anyone wants is an echo chamber about the negatives, then it's not very interesting to me.

Here is your first statement about injuries, indicating that you viewed them as "the latest excuse". Perhaps that overstates your dismissiveness of the impact of injuries, but I think it speaks for itself.

Here we go again. You consistently do this itt. I do not think injuries are a very good excuse for the Jets performance THIS ****ING YEAR. Try to misrepresent that with all those capitals.

 

[Smelling Salt]

The Penguins' vastly superior goaltending can also help mask injury issues when comparing them to the Jets' injuries.

Now maybe some stats will say the Jets compare favourably to the Penguins 5 on 5 and in other things fancy stats show I don't know, so then is it injuries to players who would normally play special teams or do the Penguins also have vastly superior coaching that can also make up for injuries?

I honestly don't know. I look at most of the Penguins' line up and think "who are these people?", yet they keep winning. They just seem to be able to plug players in and it works out.

 

[Smelling Salt]

I think you'll find that my post history is not as unbalanced as you seem to think.

You seem to have a real hate on for Jim Nill, though.

 

[pucka lucka]

The Penguins' vastly superior goaltending can also help mask injury issues when comparing them to the Jets' injuries.

Now maybe some stats will say the Jets compare favourably to the Penguins 5 on 5 and in other things fancy stats show I don't know, so then is it injuries to players who would normally play special teams or do the Penguins also have vastly superior coaching that can also make up for injuries?

I honestly don't know. I look at most of the Penguins' line up and think "who are these people?", yet they keep winning. They just seem to be able to plug players in and it works out.

exactly. Coaching, Goaltending, personnel. I wonder who controls those things for the Jets?

 

[Jetfaninflorida]

It's a good article. Some will try to discredit the article in it's entirety by saying something like 'But Dallas blah blah blah', and I might agree in the one case of Dallas that they might be a bigger disappointment. But whether the biggest or second biggest disappointment, we are a huge disappointment again this year. And the really disappointing thing is that it is the same issues that keep coming up year after year - goaltending and LHD. This year coaching and man on man defensive schema have been brought into the picture and certainly worth scrutiny as well.

The injury/schedule card was hugely overplayed here, and continues to be. I pointed out our month by month record about a week ago. We are consistently not very good. With injuries and without. With 'the toughest schedule in the history of the NHL' and without. With the joint combination of the 'toughest schedule PLUS injuries', and without either. And someone put our pre and post injury record up here and the result is the same. We are consistently not very good. So that dog simply doesn't hunt. Of course there is an in game impact, but in the case of the Jets and our record not much of one because we are consistently not very good - look at our record.

I agree with the comment about the inferiority complex. I see it here all the time in these boards. There is no expectation or requirement of success. We are always explaining away why it's ok that we are really bad again. The current one is 'young'. So it's just fine that our GM hadn't addressed goaltending or LHD because 'blah blah blah we are going young', or 'blah blah blah it would cost some money' or other. Just do something to at least try to address the problem. Too many times the point starts with something like 'but we are young', and then that is used to justify our suckedness. Earlier in the year it was the injuries, even when we played and lost to teams that were as bad or worse off than us on the injury front. Or Maurice claiming that Buf is like a rookie on D because he played forward so he is still learning so it is ok for him to suck. It's time that this organization from top to bottom including fans start to expect better things and be vocal about it. If not, don't expect much from another summer of Chevy.

I think the thing that will motivate TNSE to do something this summer is that the hockey world has woken up a bit to what is going on in Winnipeg. WE are getting justifiable bad press for team performance. Maybe Laine is bringing more attention, or maybe the hockey world is starting to impose timeline onto the whole draft and develop and not much else thing that Chevy has going. We have some great pieces. So there are a number of pundits and analysts who are asking questions about WTF Winnipeg? It's about time. Local media has been throwing softballs for too long. Not that TNSE reads HFboards, but even here Chevy could source great reasons, that I am sure he couldn't even think of, for any stupid thing that he has done or anything action that he has chosen not to do - like find a keeper that doesn't suck.

We have a pretty good lineup. We have the potential to be a much better team, as soon as next season. It's time to scrutinize. It's time to welcome any criticism that might apply some pressure to TNSE. I feel like it is the only way to get Chevy to actually try something this summer. He didn't last year and certain problems were obvious. I don't care if something doesn't work out (unless it is absolutely stupid and idiotic), but at least try. The system, the use of players, the ongoing goaltending and LHD issue. It's time to welcome the different opinions and analysis of our under performing Jets. Something needs to be done.

 

[Weezeric]

I think the 3 biggest disappointments include the jets. Also the stars and lightning. I wonder what teams were hit hardest with injuries....

 

[koth]

I thought it was a pretty good and accurate article. I think the two main issues this season was goaltending and team defense.

Choosing to go an entire season with Helly and Hutch was a big mistake and that's on management and somewhat on coaching as well. They should have acquired a veteran backup to help shelter Helly's minutes. So that's on Chevy.

Team defense is on coaching. Defense is a coachable skill in a coachable system. It doesn't take talent to play good team defense, so that's on Maurice.

 

[Aavco Cup]

exactly. Coaching, Goaltending, personnel. I wonder who controls those things for the Jets?

Neither Rutherford or Sullivan had anything to do with the Penguins acquiring Fleury or Murray. They also had nothing to do with how the Pens acquired the best center duo in the league. In many ways they are just along for the ride.

In many respects so are Maurice and Chevy. Only the roller coaster they are on is less sturdy and a much bumpier ride

 

[Hunter368]

Enstrom? Is that a significant absence?
Laine? Does that matter?
Trouba?

Even missing Dano and Copp and Armia makes a difference because it pushes players like Thorbs and Tanev up the line-up.

There is no question that other performance-related factors are key to the poor results this season, but injuries mean that you play worse players, and worse players give poorer results.

Here is a selected list of injuries, with the % of Jets games that they have missed due to injuries and other reasons:

Scheifele (4%)
Laine (11%)
Little (33%)
Perreault (24%)
Trouba (26%)
Armia (36%)
Enstrom (14%)
Matthias (36%)
Myers (84%)
Chiarot (19%)

Bolded are top-9 forwards and top-4 D.

Scheifele, Laine, Little, Trouba (contract related, partly the teams responsible), Enstrom (really a #5 D this year) were critical. Everyone else far less important, not critical. MP (crap this year), Armia (meh), Matthias (meh), Myers (bottom pairing rhd), Chiarot (bottom pairing crap). Injuries are very misleading, most of the games missed were by bottom end or useless players who have very little impact and should be very replaceable by a team with depth.

 

[garret9]

I agree with Yost.

Jets are the largest negative difference in Even Strength WAR vs wins.

Since WAR is aggregate, it is accounting for the injury excuse others are bringing.

When you have that big of a difference in ES WAR vs wins it can only be:
* Goaltending
* Luck (PDO relative to expected PDO after accounting for goaltending and shot quality)
* Penalty differential
* Penalty kill
* Power play
* Proper player deployment and usage of players

^I put that in alpha order, but the actual degree each played on the Jets is up to debate.

 

[HannuJ]

Little was out for 6 weeks.
Myers has been out the whole season.
Perreault was out for about a month.

All the other injuries have been pretty short term or to bit players.

Since December 1, the most significant injury was Laine's concussion (8 games?).

Losing our 3rd best RD for the season shouldn't be the tipping point between making the playoffs and the bottom 5.

There's a lot more wrong with this team than injuries. [mod]

Trouba's injury and Trouba holding out.

 

[Hunter368]

I agree with Yost.

Jets are the largest negative difference in Even Strength WAR vs wins.

Since WAR is aggregate, it is accounting for the injury excuse others are bringing.

When you have that big of a difference in ES WAR vs wins it can only be:
* Goaltending
* Luck (PDO relative to expected PDO after accounting for goaltending and shot quality)
* Penalty differential
* Penalty kill
* Power play
* Proper player deployment and usage of players

^I put that in alpha order, but the actual degree each played on the Jets is up to debate.

Exactly

 

[Guardian17]

I didn't think we would be a playoff team this season.

However, our defensive play and special teams have been terrible.

 

[HannuJ]

I agree with Yost.

Jets are the largest negative difference in Even Strength WAR vs wins.

Since WAR is aggregate, it is accounting for the injury excuse others are bringing.

When you have that big of a difference in ES WAR vs wins it can only be:
* Goaltending
* Luck (PDO relative to expected PDO after accounting for goaltending and shot quality)
* Penalty differential
* Penalty kill
* Power play
* Proper player deployment and usage of players

^I put that in alpha order, but the actual degree each played on the Jets is up to debate.

so, if you had to choose, would you:

re-sign/fire Maurice?
keep/fire Chevy?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is locker room material. The TSN hockey writers better be keeping their heads up the next time they play the Jets.

 

[garret9]

so, if you had to choose, would you:

re-sign/fire Maurice?
keep/fire Chevy?

Honestly I'd like to take a much deeper investigation if I were to make such a decision; however, I would I would not say either of them are safe for sure.

To use the grading system that everyone likes to use here although with inconsistent clarity and definition: I would not give them an A or B, but I'm not certain if they are an F or a passing grade.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I heard many pundits pick Dallas to play in the Stanley Cup final. I didn't hear any picking the Jets to do that.

I guess given Yost's analytical take on things the Jets are the most disappointing in a statistical sense?

I don't remember but my guess is that Yost liked the Jets going into the season. Not picking them for the SCF, just liked them. So he is particularly disappointed.

Without trying to rank 'most disappointing' though it is entirely fair to say they have been very disappointing.

 

[Aavco Cup]

I agree with Yost.

Jets are the largest negative difference in Even Strength WAR vs wins.

Since WAR is aggregate, it is accounting for the injury excuse others are bringing.

When you have that big of a difference in ES WAR vs wins it can only be:
* Goaltending
* Luck (PDO relative to expected PDO after accounting for goaltending and shot quality)
* Penalty differential
* Penalty kill
* Power play
* Proper player deployment and usage of players

^I put that in alpha order, but the actual degree each played on the Jets is up to debate.

Statistically perhaps the most disappointing but from an expected results perspective it's hard to agree since very few expected the Jets to be a playoff team.

It's hard to believe the Jets are having a more disappointing season overall than Dallas or Colorado.

 

[Guerzy]

I have said I believe from December 1st onward this team should have been better, considering injuries and such.

So from game #26 (December 1st) to today our injuries/missed time has been:

Myers - 41 games

Scheifele - 3 games (Dec 3rd-6th)
Petan - 9 games (Dec 1st-19th)
Matthias - 10 games (Dec 1st-20th)
Armia - 10 games (Dec 1st-20th)

Burmistrov - 1 game (Dec 1st) 10 games (Dec 8th-31st)


*Note - Even while those guys above were out for the bulk of December, we're still looking at Scheifele (minus 3 games early December), Laine, Ehlers, Wheeler, Little, Perreault as healthy and in our bottom six we still have the likes of Stafford, Lowry, Dano, Copp, Thorburn, Tanev. You're telling me because we couldn't dress Matthias, Armia, Burmistrov and Petan that it killed us? Even our top 4 on D of Byfuglien, Trouba, Morrissey and Enstrom missed 0 games in that time.

Sorry, but I believe we were good enough roster wise even with with those injuries to our bottom six, in my opinion. Team sustain injuries like that all the time during a season. A 3 week span where your missing some bottom six players but still have a handful of other bottom six players, a healthy top 6 and a healthy top 4 on defence, you should be okay.



Copp - 3 games (Dec 22nd-29th) 5 games (Feb 16th-28th)
Tanev - 2 games (Dec 22nd vs. Van and 27th vs Chi)

Dano - 26 games (Dec 31st-Feb 28th)

*Note - Come December 20th all of Matthias, Armia, Petan were healthy. And on December 22nd we lost Copp for 3 games and Tanev 2 games. Big whoop.

Laine - 8 games (Jan 9th-23rd)

*Note - Having one top six forward out two weeks shouldn't kill you.

Stafford - 6 games (Jan 23rd-Feb 4th) 3 games (Feb 18-21)

*Note - Stafford missing the noted games he did, was a very minimal loss.

Enstrom - 5 games (Feb 14-21st Personal reasons) 2 games (Mar 11th vs. Calgary, Mar 13th vs. Nasville)

Trouba - 3 games (Feb 21st vs. Toronto, Feb 28th vs. Minnesota, Mar 13th vs. Nashville)


Byfuglien, Morrissey, Trouba, Enstrom stayed relatively healthy and played together for the majority of time since December 1st. Enstrom missed some games for personal reasons mid-February. It's a hit to take, yes. We only had one game Feb 21st vs Toronto and 1 game Mar 13th vs. Nashville where we had no Enstrom AND Trouba. Having Myers miss so much time isn't ideal, but it's not like our top 4 has been hung out to dry.

I still think from December 1st to this point of the season, injuries have been pretty minimal in the grand scheme of things and shouldn't be a reason or excuse for the lack of efficiency on this teams 5on5 play, PP, PK, consistency, discipline, etc. That's coaching, systems/philosophies, etc. And of course unreliable goaltending. Teams get through little stretches of injuries like we ave had since December 1st onward all the time.

Sorry, but for me, things haven't been all that bad from December 1st onward and I think we should have been a better team if it were not for poor goaltending and poor coaching/systems.

Or, maybe I am wrong and underestimating things.