Yams OR JP...who ya got?

[russ99]

I find it hilarious that all the fanboys expect some miraculous turnaround in Puljujarvi's game.

He can have all the speed and size and effort in the league, but the lack of offensive instincts and weak hands are going to let him down over and over again, and those skills are not ones you can fix in an offseason.

I have no issue giving this player a shot before UFA, but the rubber is going to meet the road real soon, his last RFA contract plays a large part in his UFA ceiling, and as an incomplete player, he's going to be hard pressed to put up the kind of boxcar numbers on the third line (especially away from McDavid's coattails) that gets him the contract he assumes he's going to get.

I suspect this is exactly why his agent is posturing for a move.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I find it hilarious that all the fanboys expect some miraculous turnaround in Puljujarvi's game.

He can have all the speed and size and effort in the league, but the lack of offensive instincts and weak hands are going to let him down over and over again, and those skills are not ones you can fix in an offseason.

I have no issue giving this player a shot before UFA, but the rubber is going to meet the road real soon, his last RFA contract plays a large part in his UFA ceiling, and as an incomplete player, he's going to be hard pressed to put up the kind of boxcar numbers on the third line (especially away from McDavid's coattails) that gets him the contract he assumes he's going to get.

I suspect this is exactly why his agent is posturing for a move.

Can you explain the miraculous turnaround in pretty much every late blooming power-forward in the past 35 years?

Particularly the ones with high draft pedigree that looked like they stagnated as 'mediocre' their first 5-6 years?

As someone who remembers Jokkinen, and Todd Bertuzzi's early career pretty clearly, it was just a massive paradigm shift in how they needed to play every shift.


With Bertuzzi it was even stranger because it happened mid-season. It was like a light turned on, and he realized he could just overpower everyone and there was nothing anyone could do about it.



It's not like JP has whiffed on EVERY chance he got. It's not like he fell down every shift. There's actually plenty of highlight packages of JP on youtube.

He actually has a bunch of points, by using his speed to get open and his size to create space.
It's not a stretch to imagine he can start doing that more regularly. And when he realizes how easy it is to just keep doing what works for him, he can become a force.

 

[FlameChampion]

I like both players. I'd like to see both players here. I think both players are more useful than Foegele is.

I personally think JP is a better player. He also has more potential than Yamamoto.

Neither guy has really taken off though considering who they are playing with, if we're being honest.

I think Yamamoto is pretty much a finished product at this point. I dont think hes really getting much stronger or faster. Unfortunately I just dont think his skating is good enough to offset his size - no matter how hard he tries. It is possible that he settles in a bit more and just becomes more efficient at his game though. I personally think hes a third line player.

I see JP as more of a top 6 player with potential. But if he doesnt fit in with the team its a moot point really. We have no idea if McDrai actually enjoy playing with him so who knows honestly. It would kind of suck to trade him, just to see him flourish somewhere else (which is what I see if we trade him).

I think it really just comes down to contracts. This team doesnt have a ton of cap space. They cant afford guys who are underperforming on contracts. If the team pays Yamamoto anymore than 3 mil, I think theres a chance that he just becomes the next cap victim. What is Yamamoto willing to sign for?

The team could sign Kessel and Rodrigues for 1M type of deals and I'm not sure they would be that less productive than Yamomoto/JP who are likely to make 3M ish each.

 

[Whyme]

Jokinen was getting those minutes because he was the best player on that Panther team that year not because he was handed them. That Florida squad was brutal. They were a -61 so it is not at all surprising to see the guy with the most ice time end up as a big - .

JP's ES/60 numbers are highly inflated by his line mates. Do you really think they would be anywhere close to the same level playing on the top line of that Florida team with line mates at the level of Kristian Huselius.

As I previously pointed out...You said it is hard to produce on the third line. Yet Nuge away from the other stars on the team is at about 1.8pts/60. JP with similar line mates is about .5-.6pts/60.


They aren't neglected. They are just not very meaningful.

One could also say hOJ got help from being the #1 guy in a bad team, playing huge minutes, lots of PP and probably having the best line mates the team could offer. It's really all about picking, which you also do even if you don't realize it.

The other Florida forwards with huge TOI didn't have similar plus minus. In fact Olli Jokinen had the worst plus minus out of the forwards (and usually including defenders too) for four consecutive years.

As for Nuge... If he scored that well outside of top 6 he had to suck when playing with elite centers as he only scored altogether 37 ES points within two seasons. That shows he doesn't belong in top 6 if you're right.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

JP compared to Todd Bertuzzi.

I have seen it all.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

JP compared to Todd Bertuzzi.

I have seen it all.

JP much like Todd Bertuzzi was a very mediocre Islander forward who looked like he completely stagnated 5 years into his career.

The Islanders gave up on him after his D+5 when he looked like he was regressing. He had all the physical tools, but whiffed on shots, fell down a lot, had zero offensive zone instincts and didn't use his size to create space.


Try to keep up.

 

[Fourier]

One could also say hOJ got help from being the #1 guy in a bad team, playing huge minutes, lots of PP and probably having the best line mates the team could offer. It's really all about picking, which you also do even if you don't realize it.

The other Florida forwards with huge TOI didn't have similar plus minus. In fact Olli Jokinen had the worst plus minus out of the forwards (and usually including defenders too) for four consecutive years.

As for Nuge... If he scored that well outside of top 6 he had to suck when playing with elite centers as he only scored altogether 37 ES points within two seasons. That shows he doesn't belong in top 6 if you're right.

I won't claim that Jokinen was a defensive savant, especially early on. As I have pointed out you are using relative scoring rates, and in this case +/-, in the worst way imaginable. No matter how hard you try you can't spin these numbers to make your argument any stronger for JP. I am fairly confident in may ability to say this. You may feel just as justified in your assessment so we can let others decide who they choose to believe. But I will ask this...Do you honestly think that there is a single GM in the NHL that would see things as you are presenting them.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

JP much like Todd Bertuzzi was a very mediocre Islander forward who looked like he completely stagnated 5 years into his career.

The Islanders gave up on him after his D+5 when he looked like he was regressing. He had all the physical tools, but whiffed on shots, fell down a lot, had zero offensive zone instincts and didn't use his size to create space.


Try to keep up.

does Bertuzzi blossom if he stays on Long Island though?
sometimes players need fresh starts

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

JP much like Todd Bertuzzi was a very mediocre Islander forward who looked like he completely stagnated 5 years into his career.

The Islanders gave up on him after his D+5 when he looked like he was regressing. He had all the physical tools, but whiffed on shots, fell down a lot, had zero offensive zone instincts and didn't use his size to create space.


Try to keep up.

Oh I’m keeping up.

All late blooming big players are JP.

 

[Fourier]

JP much like Todd Bertuzzi was a very mediocre Islander forward who looked like he completely stagnated 5 years into his career.

The Islanders gave up on him after his D+5 when he looked like he was regressing. He had all the physical tools, but whiffed on shots, fell down a lot, had zero offensive zone instincts and didn't use his size to create space.


Try to keep up.

Except Bertuzzi was a very different type of forward. I remember watching him live in the 1995 top prospect game (CHL all-star Challenge) here in Kitchener. He absolutely ran rough shot over everyone else in that game. Totally dominant performance. The OHL got badly beaten but Bertuzzi was the clear star of the game.

He was the classic power forward. Physically dominate, with a mean streak that Jesse completely lacks and a strong work ethic. But he also had excellent hands that he took into the NHL. He did manage to score 18 goals in his rookie year.

Bertuzzi's game was driven by his physical assets and his willingness to use them to their fullest Jesse was at his best early in the season when he was using his size. But it is not a natural part of his game. He will need to buy into that part of his game on a much more consistent level to have anywhere near the impact as a power forward that Bertuzzi had. Frankly, I think it is extremely unlikely that he ever reaches close to that level.

 

[Whyme]

I won't claim that Jokinen was a defensive savant, especially early on. As I have pointed out you are using relative scoring rates, and in this case +/-, in the worst way imaginable. No matter how hard you try you can't spin these numbers to make your argument any stronger for JP. I am fairly confident in may ability to say this. You may feel just as justified in your assessment so we can let others decide who they choose to believe. But I will ask this...Do you honestly think that there is a single GM in the NHL that would see things as you are presenting them.

It seems like you know what I'm presenting, but I don't feel like I'm presenting anything apart from some individual stats I do believe you, with all the knowledge you do have, tend to be a bit too picky with whatever stats you feel have a meaning and what don't. Maybe that's overconfidence or whatever the term is. You probably disagree which is fine.

If there is a point I'd like to make it is that with JP or any player the amount of TOI and PP usage has to be considered. That's something few seem to do. I understand /60 stats (as any stat) have their limitations, but if a player's /60 stats are good enough it'd be at least interesting to see if the player could keep the same production rate with more responsibilities. I'll be perfectly fine if JP won't be able to produce at the same or even better rate with more time.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

I’m also not saying JP will not become a great player. Who knows he could become a star.

Just compare him to players that at least slightly share the same play style as him. Not an elite passer and a mean guy like Bertuzzi.

 

[Fourier]

It seems like you know what I'm presenting, but I don't feel like I'm presenting anything apart from some individual stats I do believe you, with all the knowledge you do have, tend to be a bit too picky with whatever stats you feel have a meaning and what don't. Maybe that's overconfidence or whatever the term is. You probably disagree which is fine.

If there is a point I'd like to make it is that with JP or any player the amount of TOI and PP usage has to be considered. That's something few seem to do. I understand /60 stats (as any stat) have their limitations, but if a player's /60 stats are good enough it'd be at least interesting to see if the player could keep the same production rate with more responsibilities. I'll be perfectly fine if JP won't be able to produce at the same or even better rate with more time.

It's not about picking which stats have meaning and which don't. It is about how you use these. This is fundamentally applies to all of mathematics. My claim is that the way you are using these stats is inappropriate in terms of what you are trying to use them to say. This has nothing to do with overconfidence. It has to do with 45+ years of experience in how to recognize flaws in mathematical reasoning. If a carpenter tells me I am using the wrong tool when I am trying to use a hammer to drill a hole I tend to listen.

Your last line highlights one of the the big errors here. There is absolutely no evidence that Pts/60 is linear. In fact, I can easily prove that it is not and have done so in a previous reply to you. You may also want took at why his minutes are not more. One reason is that he takes shorter shifts. Would expending his shifts 5-10 seconds be productive? Or is it possible that he might just see his pts/60 drop as a result. BUt even so he gets more ES minutes per game than Nuge. Do you think JP's scoring would go up by adding 223 SH minutes to his work load?

Moreover, there is a reason why he does not get more time, especially on the pp. At this point he has not shown he deserves it. Sure JP would put up more points if he was stapled to the 1st pp. BUt he is not unique in that regard. It is literally true that even a fourth line player in the NHL would see his boxcars improve if he was given significant time on the Oilers first pp. Look no further than the great Mark Letestu experiment of 2016-2017. That does not justify having a player get time on the top pp. As we found out in 2017-2018 that does not mean that this helps the team. The reason that Nuge gets so much time on the pp is because his presence make the pp much better, and this has been the case with him from the time he entered the league. There is no evidence that JP really does this at this time.

I'll say this again. JP's pts/60 stats are already significantly inflated by the time he spends with the Oiler's best players. Away from these guys his production has been borderline 3/4th line stuff. He has skills that make him a useful complementary player. That has some value which is why I wanted the Oilers to bring him back from Finland and why I would probably pick him over Yamamoto. But right now at $3M+ I'd trade unless he shows significant improvement this year.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just throwing this out there but why does Pulju never get time on the pk?

He has a huge wingspan, good first stride, can cover a lot of area, is solid own zone player in EV play and is good without the puck, has rarely been tried on pk and yet has never been on ice for a PP GA. I mean only 3-4minutes but why no further attempts? Our PP struggled this season for a longtime. Why was Pulju not even tried on it?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Except Bertuzzi was a very different type of forward. I remember watching him live in the 1995 top prospect game (CHL all-star Challenge) here in Kitchener. He absolutely ran rough shot over everyone else in that game. Totally dominant performance. The OHL got badly beaten but Bertuzzi was the clear star of the game.

You should see who the 17 year old MVP was at the World Juniors in 2016.

It was a totally dominant performance that tied him with Wayne Gretzky and Eric Lindros for most points as a 17 year old.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Except Bertuzzi was a very different type of forward. I remember watching him live in the 1995 top prospect game (CHL all-star Challenge) here in Kitchener. He absolutely ran rough shot over everyone else in that game. Totally dominant performance. The OHL got badly beaten but Bertuzzi was the clear star of the game.

He was the classic power forward. Physically dominate, with a mean streak that Jesse completely lacks and a strong work ethic. But he also had excellent hands that he took into the NHL. He did manage to score 18 goals in his rookie year.

Bertuzzi's game was driven by his physical assets and his willingness to use them to their fullest Jesse was at his best early in the season when he was using his size. But it is not a natural part of his game. He will need to buy into that part of his game on a much more consistent level to have anywhere near the impact as a power forward that Bertuzzi had. Frankly, I think it is extremely unlikely that he ever reaches close to that level.

Jesse Puljujarvi during the 2015-16 WJCs. Wasn't he tournament MVP?

 

[Fourier]

@Perfect_Drug I watched JP as a 17 year old. This is why I was excited to get him. But he was not like Bertuzzi at all. Betuzzi physically dominated and intimated his opponents. He was a lot more like Tom Wilson than Jesse Puljujarvi. He also always hand really soft hands. I don't see this with Jesse.

Jesse could still establish himself as aa legitimate top six winger. But it is extremely unlikely he will follow Bertuzzi's path. They were simply nothing alike as players other than both being big.

 

[Fourier]

Jesse Puljujarvi during the 2015-16 WJCs. Wasn't he tournament MVP?

It's not about being the MVP. It's about Bertuzzi's ability to physically dominate his opposition which was the key to his success in the NHL along with those soft hands. Jesse is simply not the same sort of player so bringing up Bertuzzi as a possible foreshadow for Jesse makes no sense. Wheeler might be a more suitable name. But not Bertuzzi. They are apples and oranges.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Just throwing this out there but why does Pulju never get time on the pk?

He has a huge wingspan, good first stride, can cover a lot of area, is solid own zone player in EV play and is good without the puck, has rarely been tried on pk and yet has never been on ice for a PP GA. I mean only 3-4minutes but why no further attempts? Our PP struggled this season for a longtime. Why was Pulju not even tried on it?

Because he gets lost on the ice. I do think they should attempt it though I agree there could be potential. However considering JPs reluctance to play bottom 6 I wonder how he feels about PKing?

You should see who the 17 year old MVP was at the World Juniors in 2016.

It was a totally dominant performance that tied him with Wayne Gretzky and Eric Lindros for most points as a 17 year old.

Edit : nvm I misread. I get what you are saying.

 

[Kaptah]

Yamamoto trade getting closer.

 

[TopShelfGloveSide]

Yamamoto trade getting closer.

I’ll actually laugh if it happens.

 

[Kaptah]

I’ll actually laugh if it happens.

We'll laugh and smile and hold hands.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Yamamoto trade getting closer.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Just throwing this out there but why does Pulju never get time on the pk?

He has a huge wingspan, good first stride, can cover a lot of area, is solid own zone player in EV play and is good without the puck, has rarely been tried on pk and yet has never been on ice for a PP GA. I mean only 3-4minutes but why no further attempts? Our PP struggled this season for a longtime. Why was Pulju not even tried on it?

Surprised he doesn’t atleast get a look after watching Yamamoto continually fail to get the puck out on the PK by not being strong enough

 

[McDreamy]

I can't help but laugh at the players JP is getting compared to in this thread. The guy is 23 years old and has no puck skills. Can't stickhandle, can't pass, can't shoot. He's a good player when we don't have possession of the puck though.