Yams OR JP...who ya got?

[TopShelfGloveSide]

You are assuming Blake Wheeler was always the best passer in the game earlier in his career.

Blake Wheeler was traded for Rich Peverly (a waiver claim), and Boris Valabik a D+6 bust.

Players who show signs of being the best passer in the game, do not get traded for a waiver claim, and a 6th year player who spent most of the season in the AHL.

Actually if he just hit the net, he would be Johann Franzen.

You have to realise how few adjustments would turn JP into incredibly effective hockey player.

Yes Blake wheeler is and always has been a better passer than JP and it’s not even close.

Oh and wheeler was involved in a terrible trade.

 

[Messrules11]

The point is comparing JP to players like Blake Wheeler is just as insane.

How is no one picking this up?

Comparing JP with Neely made me lol.

 

[Oilhawks]

You are assuming Blake Wheeler was always the best passer in the game earlier in his career.

Blake Wheeler was traded for Rich Peverly (a waiver claim), and Boris Valabik a D+6 bust.

Players who show signs of being the best passer in the game, do not get traded for a waiver claim, and a 6th year player who spent most of the season in the AHL.

Actually if he just hit the net, he would be Johann Franzen.

You have to realise how few adjustments would turn JP into incredibly effective hockey player.

Is he magically going to figure out how to shoot the puck with a modicum of accuracy, or pass with some level of ability?

The problems I have with this is those are two massive assumptions for “a few adjustments”. The alternative is can drive the net more effectively (he doesn’t do this nearly enough) and perhaps play with some physicality and doggedness. If he could do both he’d be the star player they thought they weee drafting at 4th OA. If he can improve on one of the two (skill vs power forward), he can be a solid top 6 winger

So far he’s tracking to be a 45 point two way 3rd liner, which is valuable, but not worth what his agent seems to be pushing for and most importantly, he doesn’t seem happy to accept that role, and wants to be a top 6 winger (TOI and role)

This “but he could end up being Blake Wheeler or Nichushkin” stuff is currently fantasyland bullshit based on extrapolations and comparisons to other players because they “seem similar”.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Just saying that Pulju put up 10G 13A 23pts in October, November, December in the first 29 games of the season. This could be seen as indicative of a player finding his way. This all put up alongside very low EVGA. he was being solid in every aspect.

Pulju struggled in January like almost every player on the team struggled.

Pulju was then injured in February in what the headcoach had said was an injury with a 6-7 week timeline.

Pulju then had the non Covid illness at end of season and leading into playoffs.

That is the timeline. Why would we give up on the player?

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Is he magically going to figure out how to shoot the puck with a modicum of accuracy, or pass with some level of ability?

The problems I have with this is those are two massive assumptions for “a few adjustments”. The alternative is can drive the net more effectively (he doesn’t do this nearly enough) and perhaps play with some physicality and doggedness. If he could do both he’d be the star player they thought they weee drafting at 4th OA. If he can improve on one of the two (skill vs power forward), he can be a solid top 6 winger

So far he’s tracking to be a 45 point two way 3rd liner, which is valuable, but not worth what his agent seems to be pushing for and most importantly, he doesn’t seem happy to accept that role, and wants to be a top 6 winger (TOI and role)

This “but he could end up being Blake Wheeler or Nichushkin” stuff is currently fantasyland bullshit based on extrapolations and comparisons to other players because they “seem similar”.

Yes.

You are suggesting that that all large fast skilled players with high draft pedigree plateau at 23 years old.
I am telling you they peak in their mid-late 20s and there is a pretty substantial sample size of players to back this claim.


Players such as JP, who have high draft pedigree and all the tools seem to break out in their mid 20's is a VERY common occurrence. Even if he never breaks out (which I admit is very possible), it would be dumb of us to give up on him before seeing this through.

Why would we give up on him now?

The alarming part has to do with how often the drafting team gives up on those players a couple of years too early, and get to watch their breakout happen on another team.



Look at Todd Bertuzzi:
There was NOTHING to indicate that he would be anything more than a 40-50 point player.
Then suddenly 97 points and the most revered power forward in the league.

Bertuzzi suddenly had 3rd in league in points with a 10 game suspension that had a lot of people wondering if he could have snagged the Art ross from Iginla that year had he not been suspended.

Everyone seems to think in hindsight that he must have had a crazy shot, and wicked vision and deft hands.. and NO he didn't! He was a bumbling moron who panicked with the puck and fell down a lot. Just like Olli Jokinen (who looked like he peaked as a 26 point player).

And I keep saying this is not a 1-off thing.

I wish you guys could have read what people said about Wheeler, Bertuzzi, Leclair, Jokinen, and Neely.
It is verbatim what is being said about JP now.

 

[Oilhawks]

Yes.

Players such as JP, who have high draft pedigree and all the tools seem to break out in their mid 20's is a VERY common occurrence.

The alarming part has to do with how often the drafting team gives up on those players, and get to watch their breakout happen on another team. Usually when they're 25.

Lend me your crystal ball sometime, please

For every one of these late bloomers the secondary leagues are littered with guys that never broke out and washed out of the league (don’t even have to look far, check out Perlini). Plenty of others that have to completely change their game and accept that they aren’t top 6 guys as well.

Not so alarming when most of those players were given quite a bit of time and in a lot of cases they want to leave for a fresh start. What the f*** is that team supposed to do at that point?

 

[tardigrade81]

Lmao.

Those give me gas

Then again. Everything does.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Lend me your crystal ball sometime, please

For every one of these late bloomers the secondary leagues are littered with guys that never broke out and washed out of the league (don’t even have to look far, check out Perlini). Plenty of others that have to completely change their game and accept that they aren’t top 6 guys as well.

Of course!

I'm not denying that there are a lot of busts as well. But JP had way higher draft pedigree and much better tools than Perlini. JP won the World Juniors Tournament MVP, which has some pretty illustrious company.

Why would we give up on the guy who's game looks like it took a massive step forward a year ago? Why would we give up on the guy who was nearly PPG over the first 30 games last year?

If he walks away as a UFA next year so be it. If he never improves on his 22 year old season big whoop.

Not so alarming when most of those players were given quite a bit of time and in a lot of cases they want to leave for a fresh start. What the f*** is that team supposed to do at that point?

Ken Holland changed the rules of the game when he told Jesse's agent "No".
Turns out you can deny a trade request.

 

[Oilhawks]

Of course!

I'm not denying that there are a lot of busts as well. But JP had way higher draft pedigree and much better tools than Perlini.

Why would we give up on the guy who's game looks like it took a massive step forward a year ago? Why would we give up on the guy who was nearly PPG over the first 30 games last year?

If he walks away as a UFA next year so be it. If he never improves on his 22 year old season big whoop.



Ken Holland changed the rules of the game when he told Jesse's agent "No".
Turns out you can deny a trade request.

They wouldn’t be giving up on the player at this point. If anything, they’ve wanted this to work much more than other teams in similar situations.

Plenty of fans shit on Holland but he’s handled this better than I’d expect almost any other GM to (including the ones that everyone loves to slobber over). JP would have likely been traded for a 2nd or Lias Anderson or some shit if it was almost any other GM taking over when Holland did.

The contract is signed, it’s workable and other cap can be moved out, now it’s up to the player to show that he’s what you claim he’s destined to be. If JP is the one that’s traded of him, Foegele, Barrie or Yams then given the history our answer would be he wanted a fresh start

 

[Whyme]

They wouldn’t be giving up on the player at this point. If anything, they’ve wanted this to work much more than other teams in similar situations.

Plenty of fans shit on Holland but he’s handled this better than I’d expect almost any other GM to (including the ones that everyone loves to slobber over). JP would have likely been traded for a 2nd or Lias Anderson or some shit if it was almost any other GM taking over when Holland did.

The contract is signed, it’s workable and other cap can be moved out, now it’s up to the player to show that he’s what you claim he’s destined to be. If JP is the one that’s traded of him, Foegele, Barrie or Yams then given the history our answer would be he wanted a fresh start

I agree Holland handled that well, but it seems Puljujarvi also changed his mind and wanted to play specifically in the Oilers. Holland had already stated he would be trading Puljujarvi at the draft at the latest when Puljujarvi softened his tone dramatically. It's also possible he was mislead by some questionable advise and realized things could work better for him now in Edmonton. I think that was a two-way street and the communication is still good.

 

[Spawn]

You serious?

2 Teams gave up on Jokinen when he posted career highs of 21 points.
On his third team he put up 16 points over a full season in his D+4.

In his D+5 he improved to a whopping 9 goals and 29 points. It looked like he plateau'd and was a healthy scratch for a few games mid-season.

I think you're drastically mis-remembering the early part of his career.



JP is currently a way better player than Olli Jokinen in pretty much every facet during their first 5 years.
If JP can just figure out that he's bigger and stronger than everyone else in this league he would be an absolute force.

Love how you conveniently didn't mention each players D+6. Where Olli Jokinen put up 65 points and led his team in scoring in the height of the dead puck era. While Jesse Puljujarvi finished 9th on his team and put up 0.5ppg while attached to the hip of the best player since Mario Lemeiux in the highest scoring season of the last 25+ years.

For everyone being deliberately obtuse: The point was not that Yamamoto was going to become Martin St. Louis or Brad Marchand. It was that anyone can find outliers to try and make it seem like "their guy" has some sort of secret untapped potential.

 

[Fourier]

Of course!

I'm not denying that there are a lot of busts as well. But JP had way higher draft pedigree and much better tools than Perlini. JP won the World Juniors Tournament MVP, which has some pretty illustrious company.

Why would we give up on the guy who's game looks like it took a massive step forward a year ago? Why would we give up on the guy who was nearly PPG over the first 30 games last year?

If he walks away as a UFA next year so be it. If he never improves on his 22 year old season big whoop.



Ken Holland changed the rules of the game when he told Jesse's agent "No".
Turns out you can deny a trade request.

You don't give up on him but you might not be able to afford him. There is a salary cap. Even if you can fit him in this year there is a good chance you can't next year without moving someone who is more valuable.

 

[Spawn]

Yes.

You are suggesting that that all large fast skilled players with high draft pedigree plateau at 23 years old.
I am telling you they peak in their mid-late 20s and there is a pretty substantial sample size of players to back this claim.


Players such as JP, who have high draft pedigree and all the tools seem to break out in their mid 20's is a VERY common occurrence. Even if he never breaks out (which I admit is very possible), it would be dumb of us to give up on him before seeing this through.

Why would we give up on him now?

The alarming part has to do with how often the drafting team gives up on those players a couple of years too early, and get to watch their breakout happen on another team.



Look at Todd Bertuzzi:
There was NOTHING to indicate that he would be anything more than a 40-50 point player.
Then suddenly 97 points and the most revered power forward in the league.

Bertuzzi suddenly had 3rd in league in points with a 10 game suspension that had a lot of people wondering if he could have snagged the Art ross from Iginla that year had he not been suspended.

Everyone seems to think in hindsight that he must have had a crazy shot, and wicked vision and deft hands.. and NO he didn't! He was a bumbling moron who panicked with the puck and fell down a lot. Just like Olli Jokinen (who looked like he peaked as a 26 point player).

View attachment 574037


And I keep saying this is not a 1-off thing.

I wish you guys could have read what people said about Wheeler, Bertuzzi, Leclair, Jokinen, and Neely.
It is verbatim what is being said about JP now.

Of course its absurd to compare Kailer Yamamoto to Martin St. Louis because of 20 pounds. But comparing Puljujarvi to Bertuzzi, Leclair or Neely? Some of the greatest power forwards of the past 30 years. No, not at all as absurd.

 

[Steve253]

Jessler Yamojarvi

 

[DaGap]

Neither

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Love how you conveniently didn't mention each players D+6. Where Olli Jokinen put up 65 points and led his team in scoring in the height of the dead puck era. While Jesse Puljujarvi finished 9th on his team and put up 0.5ppg while attached to the hip of the best player since Mario Lemeiux in the highest scoring season of the last 25+ years.

For everyone being deliberately obtuse: The point was not that Yamamoto was going to become Martin St. Louis or Brad Marchand. It was that anyone can find outliers to try and make it seem like "their guy" has some sort of secret untapped potential.

Would JP becoming a dominant offensive player really be an outlier tho?

I mean it's not like a 1 in a 100 chance a huge, fast, awkward dude drafted in the top 5 figures out how to use his tools at 25 years old to become a force in this league.

Infact I'd put it at around 50%... which wouldn't be considered a random an outlier.

 

[RandomGuy79]

People are now comparing Pulju to Neely and Bertuzzi? The season can't start soon enough, people here are out of their minds.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Of course its absurd to compare Kailer Yamamoto to Martin St. Louis because of 20 pounds. But comparing Puljujarvi to Bertuzzi, Leclair or Neely? Some of the greatest power forwards of the past 30 years. No, not at all as absurd.

Yes I am, and I did.

Because I remember Cam Neely as a Canuck. And when he had 14 goals and 34 points in the high scoring 80's. He was traded because his paltry offense did not make up for his terrible defense.

I remember John Leclair as a Hab. He was some big dumb awkward oaf who maxed out as a wildly inconsistent 40 point player during the high scoring early 90's.



Do you remember what everyone was saying about these guys when they were with their old teams? Because I do. Nobody believed they would become what they became.


In John Leclairs case, he was 26.

 

[Spawn]

People are now comparing Pulju to Neely and Bertuzzi? The season can't start soon enough, people here are out of their minds.

50/50 he becomes the leagues premier power forward. I like those odds.

 

[Whyme]

Love how you conveniently didn't mention each players D+6. Where Olli Jokinen put up 65 points and led his team in scoring in the height of the dead puck era. While Jesse Puljujarvi finished 9th on his team and put up 0.5ppg while attached to the hip of the best player since Mario Lemeiux in the highest scoring season of the last 25+ years.

On the other hand you didn't mention how OJ played 21:43 per game, of which 4:27 on the PP. In comparison Puljujarvi played 16:13, of which just 1:28 was on the PP.

In fact OJ's and Pulju's ES/60 were almost the same (1.952 vs. 1.814) and OJ was -17 (worst forward of the team) and PJ +22 (3rd of the team).

I hope I'm understood in a right way this time, just wanted to take a bit closer look into these details.

 

[Whyme]

50/50 he becomes the leagues premier power forward. I like those odds.

He didn't exactly say a premier power forward, but used the word force which I guess is close enough anyway. I am JP's supporter as you know, but I also believe the chance is around 50%. The thing is I think he's already been a force or on the edge at least. Time will tell if PJ can learn to keep that level consistently and what he'll do with the PP time when he starts to get it more. I understand why he can be a frustrating player for some, but I also think the amount of potential he has is still big enough for the Oilers to keep him.

 

[Spawn]

He didn't exactly say a premier power forward, but used the word force which I guess is close enough anyway. I am JP's supporter as you know, but I also believe the chance is around 50%. The thing is I think he's already been a force or on the edge at least. Time will tell if PJ can learn to keep that level consistently and what he'll do with the PP time when he starts to get it more. I understand why he can be a frustrating player for some, but I also think the amount of potential he has is still big enough for the Oilers to keep him.

I think he’s worth keeping too.

But, the comparisons some of you have for him are outlandish based on everything he’s done in his career so far.

 

[Whyme]

I think he’s worth keeping too.

But, the comparisons some of you have for him are outlandish based on everything he’s done in his career so far.

I'm throwing numbers as I think quite often the amount of TOI and PP time are totally neglected. However, I very rarely if ever mean them as direct comparisons. I understand how in this constant flow of new messages they can be seen as such.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

I think he’s worth keeping too.

But, the comparisons some of you have for him are outlandish based on everything he’s done in his career so far.

This is the part where you're tripping.

You had to have remembered Jokkinen and Bertuzzi on Long Island.

Based on what they had done in their careers, they stagnated and trended towards being busts. There was no improvement in their games year in and year out, and Mad Mike lost patience waiting for them to arrive and traded them.

 

[Fourier]

On the other hand you didn't mention how OJ played 21:43 per game, of which 4:27 on the PP. In comparison Puljujarvi played 16:13, of which just 1:28 was on the PP.

In fact OJ's and Pulju's ES/60 were almost the same (1.952 vs. 1.814) and OJ was -17 (worst forward of the team) and PJ +22 (3rd of the team).

I hope I'm understood in a right way this time, just wanted to take a bit closer look into these details.

Jokinen was getting those minutes because he was the best player on that Panther team that year not because he was handed them. That Florida squad was brutal. They were a -61 so it is not at all surprising to see the guy with the most ice time end up as a big - .

JP's ES/60 numbers are highly inflated by his line mates. Do you really think they would be anywhere close to the same level playing on the top line of that Florida team with line mates at the level of Kristian Huselius.

As I previously pointed out...You said it is hard to produce on the third line. Yet Nuge away from the other stars on the team is at about 1.8pts/60. JP with similar line mates is about .5-.6pts/60.

I'm throwing numbers as I think quite often the amount of TOI and PP time are totally neglected. However, I very rarely if ever mean them as direct comparisons. I understand how in this constant flow of new messages they can be seen as such.

They aren't neglected. They are just not very meaningful.