GDT: WJC, Jan 2 QF, Cesko vs Canada, 8:30 EST

[Czechboy]

Just here to read the salty comments. Have we got "Cant win every year when our best players are in the NHL" yet?

The good news was that Canada didn't get called on a single penalty. Only PP was for Canada. So no euro ref conspiracy! In fact, cleanest game I've ever seen. One awesome hit (geekie destroyed redlich) and that's about it. No TSN camera, ref review, hit from behind, 'unavoidablr' or 'beibg too Strong' headshot

 

[Hobnobs]

The good news was that Canada didn't get called on a single penalty. Only PP was for Canada. So no euro ref conspiracy! In fact, cleanest game I've ever seen. One awesome hit (geekie destroyed redlich) and that's about it. No TSN camera, ref review, hit from behind, 'unavoidablr' or 'beibg too Strong' headshot

Hoping for a good game against you guys next. Sweden vs Czechia, pravda vítězí!

 

[Czechboy]

Hoping for a good game against you guys next. Sweden vs Czechia, pravda vítězí!

For me
.. the quarter is our gold medal game. Everything else is gravy. Thrilled with 2 more games. A bronze would be amazing. Beating Sweden would be tremendous too. Losing both games and I'm still happy.

Total gravy time for me.lol.

Feels like USA vs Sweden is inevitable. Two best teams left. But, and I keep typing this, hrabal in net, solid d and Kulich can fire that puck. We have the ingredients for an upset. But it'd definitely be an upset. Good luck!

 

[SOLR]

Yeah Canada is the best hockey nation as everyone knows but 5 out of 15 is definitely worse than the 5 out of 5 immediately preceding it lol.

Don't think you are very acquainted with data analysis. "Cherry picking" makes for bad arguments.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Don't think you are very acquainted with data analysis. "Cherry picking" makes for bad arguments.

I didn’t cherry pick. Follow the chain I said

4 out of 7
With 1 out of 8 before that
Is worse than 5 out of 5

Which immediately preceded that.

There is no cherry picking. I chose every relevant sample. What about my (accurate) statement do you take exception to?

 

[SOLR]

I didn’t cherry pick. Follow the chain I said

4 out of 7
With 1 out of 8 before that
Is worse than 5 out of 5

Which immediately preceded that.

There is no cherry picking. I chose every relevant sample. What about my (accurate) statement do you take exception to?

It's the definition of cherry-picking. The only relevant samples for national development trends are blocks of 20 years at the very least. It's not like Canada wasn't there and performing in those 8 years, they just weren't clinching, mostly because the US had a wave of talent (they tend to have 2 strong years every 5 years)

For example, we can see Russia's demographic and development decline by comparing the first 20 years to the 2nd 20 years. We can see no such trend in Canada's results (even if the 2nd 20-year period is probably, I didn't check in detail, STRONGER than the first).

Looking at the two 20-year periods we can also make a clear statement about the progress of the Americans, it's very obvious in the data. If this trend persists, the US will become the world power in the 2040s, this would make sense given the demographic power of the US and the decline in hockey-playing demos in Canada (particularly in Quebec where Soccer is winning over hockey). The NHL in Quebec City was not optional for the maintenance of hockey in the province...

By looking at 10-year tranches, we can see the waves of the small countries, where they usually have 1 strong 10 years every 20 years. Russia is about to collapse (their demographic is terminal and will cease to exist as a nation soon) and it looks like the last generation they can produce at this level.

Swedes are very regular, but rarely at the top. They just don't have the demographics to overcome this. Same with the Fins. Both these countries are developing about at the same rate as Canada with 25% and 15% of the demographics of Canada. Of course, the demographics of ALL hockey-playing populations are very bad...I foresee a decline in skills beginning in the 2030s as we are already noticing IQ declines in general populations.

 

[WarriorofTime]

It's the definition of cherry-picking. The only relevant samples for national development trends are blocks of 20 years at the very least.

The only relevant blocks are blocks cherry picked to be favorable to your point. Good grief.

For example, we can see Russia's demographic and development decline by comparing the first 20 years to the 2nd 20 years. We can see no such trend in Canada's results (even if the 2nd 20-year period is probably, I didn't check in detail, STRONGER than the first).

What? Compare nhl demographics 20 years ago as far as player by nationality to now.

 

[SOLR]

The only relevant blocks are blocks cherry picked to be favorable to your point. Good grief.

No... you seem to be oblivious of the science of sampling and how to do it in a way that creates an experiment (scientific method hello?)

You can pick the level of detail you want, each 5 years, each 10 years, each 20 years.

But what you are doing is different, you are picking your sample based ON THE RESULTS. Thus nobody should listen to you, ever. Your method leads to no credibility whatsoever.

In sports results, I would disqualify the 5 years sample, because you could measure the effect of just 1 player on results, and you can make no statement at all about a country based on 1 player.

 

[WarriorofTime]

By looking at 10-year tranches, we can see the waves of the small countries, where they usually have 1 strong 10 years every 20 years. Russia is about to collapse (their demographic is terminal and will cease to exist as a nation soon) and it looks like the last generation they can produce at this level.

This is wildly inaccurate. The proportion of Russians in the NHL is the highest it’s been in 20 years. Russia emptying out their jails to conscript people to Putin’s war doesn’t impact hockey at all. Hockey is actually thriving in Russia right now with new, modern khl arenas that are generally full, good tv deals and a very financially viable league. This trickles down to junior and minor hockey because the clubs sponsor all of that. The “khl generation” of kids that have played all their youth hockey since the formation of the khl are generally stronger than preceding ones because of this overall trend.

It’s bizarre to me you are so brazenly incorrect on a topic like this.

 

[Staniowski]

It's great to see the Czechs doing well at the WJC the last few years. When Czechia is producing good hockey players, it's good for the sport.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Looking at the two 20-year periods we can also make a clear statement about the progress of the Americans, it's very obvious in the data. If this trend persists, the US will become the world power in the 2040s, this would make sense given the demographic power of the US and the decline in hockey-playing demos in Canada (particularly in Quebec where Soccer is winning over hockey). The NHL in Quebec City was not optional for the maintenance of hockey in the province...

No, this is extremely unlikely. The infrastructure for hockey in the U.S. is not at Canadian levels and the numbers are already plateauing. We’d need to see a lot more rinks being constructed and new minor teams and junior teams pop up that are on the pipeline to NHL pyramid to get to a point where the U.S. overtakes Canada in terms of NHL players produced. It’s possible with demographics and a changing culture that those things start to collapse in Canada and old rinks aren’t replaced, youth teams have to close up shop, skill coaches get new jobs because it’s not economically viable in which case USA could overtake by sheer default but it’s not all that likely as long as Canada can hold steady and weather the current inflationary storm.

 

[SOLR]

This is wildly inaccurate. The proportion of Russians in the NHL is the highest it’s been in 20 years. Russia emptying out their jails to conscript people to Putin’s war doesn’t impact hockey at all. Hockey is actually thriving in Russia right now with new, modern khl arenas that are generally full, good tv deals and a very financially viable league. This trickles down to junior and minor hockey because the clubs sponsor all of that. The “khl generation” of kids that have played all their youth hockey since the formation of the khl are generally stronger than preceding ones because of this overall trend.

It’s bizarre to me you are so brazenly incorrect on a topic like this.

Brazingly incorrect, you just don't know anything about demographics. The KHL is imploding in talent, now you hear about a lot of 17-18 in the KHL, this is new and not a good sign.

You can see there, there's a good bunch of 10 years old, then it falls appart. This is what I meant by last generation, those 7-15 years old will create better hockey talent for a 8 years period then it will collapse. Somewhere in 2035 Russia won't have enough workers to sustain their nation. There's not enough 20 years old.

Most of the Russian NHLers are in their 30s. Fitting with this graph... (Ovechkin and Malkin are in that bigger generation)

 

[SOLR]

No, this is extremely unlikely. The infrastructure for hockey in the U.S. is not at Canadian levels and the numbers are already plateauing. We’d need to see a lot more rinks being constructed and new minor teams and junior teams pop up that are on the pipeline to NHL pyramid to get to a point where the U.S. overtakes Canada in terms of NHL players produced. It’s possible with demographics and a changing culture that those things start to collapse in Canada and old rinks aren’t replaced, youth teams have to close up shop, skill coaches get new jobs because it’s not economically viable in which case USA could overtake by sheer default but it’s not all that likely as long as Canada can hold steady and weather the current inflationary storm.

The hockey infrastructure of Canada is already in many places closing as numbers are going down in Quebec and Ontario. Ontario is also switching to soccer as others ethnicities that have the numbers prefer those sports. We are in 2023. I said the 2040s....

 

[WarriorofTime]

No... you seem to be oblivious of the science of sampling and how to do it in a way that creates an experiment (scientific method hello?)

You can pick the level of detail you want, each 5 years, each 10 years, each 20 years.

But what you are doing is different, you are picking your sample based ON THE RESULTS. Thus nobody should listen to you, ever. Your method leads to no credibility whatsoever.

In sports results, I would disqualify the 5 years sample, because you could measure the effect of just 1 player on results, and you can make no statement at all about a country based on 1 player.

No dude. I’m describing a trend based on observable data. You’re being pedantic for the sake of argument. The conditions that made 5 straight Canadian victories a reality is not reflective of the reality today. You can compare nhl draft numbers, the decline of prominent Canadian goaltending development and see that clearly. We don’t need to wait another 5 years to knock off some more of those five straight victories to make that observation just so it fits in your (cherry picked) sample.

 

[SOLR]

No dude. I’m describing a trend based on observable data. You’re being pedantic for the sake of argument. The conditions that made 5 straight Canadian victories a reality is not reflective of the reality today. You can compare nhl draft numbers, the decline of prominent Canadian goaltending development and see that clearly. We don’t need to wait another 5 years to knock off some more of those five straight victories to make that observation just so it fits in your (cherry picked) sample.

You are arguing that you should adapt your sampling to fit the data. It's not pedantic to point that out, it's just correct.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Brazingly incorrect, you just don't know anything about demographics. The KHL is imploding in talent, now you hear about a lot of 17-18 in the KHL, this is new and not a good sign.

View attachment 795117

You can see there, there's a good bunch of 10 years old, then it falls appart. This is what I meant by last generation, those 7-15 years old will create better hockey talent for a 8 years period then it will collapse. Somewhere in 2035 Russia won't have enough workers to sustain their nation. There's not enough 20 years old.

It’s the same in all white countries. Yes it is an issue all these countries will need to address, your statement that Russia will cease to exist as a country is laughably false.

You are arguing that you should adapt your sampling to fit the data. It's not pedantic to point that out, it's just correct.

That’s what you literally did. lol. You picked a favorable sample for your point and said “this is what we have to use”. I’ve repeated it many a times which you seem to keep ignoring. 4 of 7, 1 of 8, 5 of 5. You don’t like that for whatever reason and so keep ignoring it.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Most of the Russian NHLers are in their 30s. Fitting with this graph... (Ovechkin and Malkin are in that bigger generation)

Now you’re just openly lying. 13 out of 53 is certainly not “most”

 

[Hockeyville USA]

The hockey infrastructure of Canada is already in many places closing as numbers are going down in Quebec and Ontario. Ontario is also switching to soccer as others ethnicities that have the numbers prefer those sports. We are in 2023. I said the 2040s....

This is depressing to think about, but certainly a trending reality. Maybe I should root for a Canadian team to win a Cup lmfao. Canada not caring about hockey at the same rate they have is just sad.

 

[WarriorofTime]

The hockey infrastructure of Canada is already in many places closing as numbers are going down in Quebec and Ontario. Ontario is also switching to soccer as others ethnicities that have the numbers prefer those sports. We are in 2023. I said the 2040s....

Recreational hockey is declining because it’s been squeezed out by the elite track. I’m gonna need to some junior teams (not the predatory leagues either, but the serious ones) close and consolidate first before I start preparing the autopsy.

 

[SOLR]

Now you’re just openly lying. 13 out of 53 is certainly not “most”

25 of 53 are over 28.
If you control for NHL career prime age bias (24 years old) this is a collapse.

Also look at the qualitative distribution...

 

[SOLR]

It’s the same in all white countries. Yes it is an issue all these countries will need to address, your statement that Russia will cease to exist as a country is laughably false.


That’s what you literally did. lol. You picked a favorable sample for your point and said “this is what we have to use”. I’ve repeated it many a times which you seem to keep ignoring. 4 of 7, 1 of 8, 5 of 5. You don’t like that for whatever reason and so keep ignoring it.

That Russia will cease to exist is an opinion shared by most militaries in the world and geopolitical analysts.

China is going first.

That's why the Russians are attacking Ukraine. If they succeed it buys them 40 years. If they don't around 2045, the Russian ethnicity will be overwhelmed by many others. There is no example in the world where an ethnicity can keep a country for too long while being a minority in the seat of power.

Anyway, hockey...

 

[Sergei DRW]

Russia not allowed and Canada eliminated is AOK in my book!

Russia can kiss good-bye to international

Of course I would care if they weren’t in the tournament.

Forget about it. Russia can kiss "good-bye" to any international hockey unless they change the attitude which will not happen any time soon.

 

[WarriorofTime]

25 of 53 are over 28.
If you control for NHL career prime age bias (24 years old) this is a collapse.

Also look at the qualitative distribution...

Cool thanks for admitting you lied. The 25th oldest Russian in the NHL is Shesterkin who was born 12/30/95 and so just turned 28. The median is Alexander Georgiev, born 2/10/1996.

How this is “demographic collapse” is bizarre and just obviously untrue. A far cry from “most are over 30” as you claimed.

 

[SOLR]

This is depressing to think about, but certainly a trending reality. Maybe I should root for a Canadian team to win a Cup lmfao. Canada not caring about hockey at the same rate they have is just sad.

I don't think much changed in the caucasian population. But when you import people, your population and dynamics change. (this is not an argument against importing people)

 

[SOLR]

Cool thanks for admitting you lied. The 25th oldest Russian in the NHL is Shesterkin who was born 12/30/95 and so just turned 28. The median is Alexander Georgiev, born 2/10/1996.

How this is “demographic collapse” is bizarre and just obviously untrue. A far cry from “most are over 30” as you claimed.

When your median is HIGHER than your prime by 4 years?

Your qualitative median is over 30 easily.