William Nylander Value/Contract

[AppsSyl]

Nylander has to be the 1st order of business for Dubas. The other dominoes (Matthews/Marner) shouldn't fall until he is signed, and although you can't sign Matthews and Marner until July 1st, you want the contracts negotiated and agreed upon, so that you know what you can do in free agency.
I would be happy if we can get all 3 done for $25 million AAV or less, on 7 or 8 year deals. Long term with an increasing cap that will be a win in my mind.
Could see:
Matthews 11 x 8
Marner 7.5 x 8
Nylander 6.5 x 7

 

[Sypher04]

Yeah, we shouldn't be in any rush to overpay Willy...he should be right around what Ehlers makes...we all saw how ineffective Ehlers was playing for Winnipeg in these playoffs even with decent regular season numbers...until Willy plays like he wants to win at all cost and has the production to accompany that desire, he's replaceable...there's a reason why Babcock wants real men on this team...and I don't even doubt that Kapanen could be more effective if he plays on Matthews' wing.

Nylander will get somewhere between 8.0% and 8.5% of the cap. If I had to guess right now.

Based on a $78 million cap, that'd be somewhere between $6,240,000 and $6,630,000 per year

 

[ToneDog]

Nylander has to be the 1st order of business for Dubas. The other dominoes (Matthews/Marner) shouldn't fall until he is signed, and although you can't sign Matthews and Marner until July 1st, you want the contracts negotiated and agreed upon, so that you know what you can do in free agency.
I would be happy if we can get all 3 done for $25 million AAV or less, on 7 or 8 year deals. Long term with an increasing cap that will be a win in my mind.
Could see:
Matthews 11 x 8
Marner 7.5 x 8
Nylander 6.5 x 7

One one hand I can easily see those numbers. On the other I'd like to see the 3 agree to numbers adding up in the mid-20s so that we can go after some quality UFA(s).

I think Willie may gamble on himself and sign a bridge deal for lower AAV. I don't mind it cause we will always have the option to sign and/or trade him later.

 

[Silver91]

If Willy insists on a bridge, I suspect he will be on the block

Considering it may be the Leafs who turn to a bridge conversation (if Willy wants too much on a long-term deal), this is a pretty baseless claim.

Even marner should not be paid that much. The guy has been a diehard leaf fan for his life according to himself and fans. He is the guy that you expect to give you a pay cut. I think we get following deals
Nylander 6.25x8
Marner 6.5x8
Matthew's 10.25x8

The numbers I posted were high-end cap hits. Is it possible one/all of them take paycuts? Sure. But I'd rather expect them to gun for market value and be happy if they take a cut, than expect them to take a cut and be disappointed with them getting market value.

7 years, 6m per for Ehlers. Seems like it's the right fit for Nylander too.

Imo makes zero sense to go short term with Nylander to pay even more later.

Like I said, there is definitely a reason to go 3-years with all of the big 3. Yeah, you might end up having to eat a larger cap hit when their 2nd contracts are done, possibly even moving one of 16/29, but that could also mean a savings of over $8M for the first 2 years of 16/34's second contracts. That, with a rising cap, could mean Tavares + Doughty for those 2 years before having to figure things out.

There's so many different ways to be creative with the cap, signing all 3 long-term isn't the only solution. Yeah, it means we can keep them all together for longer, but signing shorter term and knowing you'll likely have to move off of one isn't the end of the world either. It could lead to a couple Cups as well as a replenishing of the youth in our system, if you do end up trading one of 16/29.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more comfortable I am with bridging all 3. It gives us a chance to add 2-3 impact players for the next 3 seasons. As nice as the long-term security of keeping the band together is, I'll take a 3-year run at a legit dynasty, with the ability to stay competitive afterward, if it means sacrificing one player going forward (as long as it's not 34 lol).

 

[WTFMAN99]

Considering it may be the Leafs who turn to a bridge conversation (if Willy wants too much on a long-term deal), this is a pretty baseless claim.



The numbers I posted were high-end cap hits. Is it possible one/all of them take paycuts? Sure. But I'd rather expect them to gun for market value and be happy if they take a cut, than expect them to take a cut and be disappointed with them getting market value.



Like I said, there is definitely a reason to go 3-years with all of the big 3. Yeah, you might end up having to eat a larger cap hit when their 2nd contracts are done, possibly even moving one of 16/29, but that could also mean a savings of over $8M for the first 2 years of 16/34's second contracts. That, with a rising cap, could mean Tavares + Doughty for those 2 years before having to figure things out.

There's so many different ways to be creative with the cap, signing all 3 long-term isn't the only solution. Yeah, it means we can keep them all together for longer, but signing shorter term and knowing you'll likely have to move off of one isn't the end of the world either. It could lead to a couple Cups as well as a replenishing of the youth in our system, if you do end up trading one of 16/29.

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more comfortable I am with bridging all 3. It gives us a chance to add 2-3 impact players for the next 3 seasons. As nice as the long-term security of keeping the band together is, I'll take a 3-year run at a legit dynasty, with the ability to stay competitive afterward, if it means sacrificing one player going forward (as long as it's not 34 lol).

There isn't a substantial enough difference in the price. Let's say you do 3 years on Nylander at 4.5M versus the 6M you could just pay now to get the 7 year deal. 1.5M savings...what can you even do with that? If Nylander commands $7.5-9m later on you look pretty foolish. Multiply that foolishness x3 and you might as well kiss your job good bye.

 

[diceman934]

The idea that what we saw against Boston is an ongoing problem is absurd, and easily proven false. Willy in that series was intimidated cutting through the neutral zone. As a result, he had abysmal transition numbers. In contrast, they are normally near-elite. Willy in that series got absolutely owned along the boards, and had barely any contested pucks won in the series. In the rest of the measured games in his career, he's got surprisingly good stats in this regard. Willy shied away from the front of the net against Boston. The rest of his career his shot charts clearly show that he goes frequently to the slot, something that also shows up in other metrics. His Boston series was night and day compared to absolutely everything he has ever shown before, in any kind of shape or form.

Of course, I've brought all this up several times before and had it summarily ignored by those that would actually prefer to push a negative narrative against an incredible talent on their favorite team, which I find quite sad.

Oh, and as for Nylander not having proven anything away from Matthews. It's interesting that this argument never comes up from these same posters regarding Matthews, considering that his performances away from Nylander has been worse. Similar production but worse underlying metrics. When Nylander played center in a secondary matchup role with Hyman and Brown and didn't have great production, it's brought up as a reason why he's not a center, despite great underlying metrics. Despite Babcock praising him, and starting to talk about him as a future center again. When Matthews played between Hyman and Brown in the same role with the same kind of production but with bad underlying metrics, not a word is said by the same people. Makes it kind of clear that something else than the actual performance defines their opinion.


That doesn't really work in contract negotiations though. Unless we go for a two year bridge, paying for potential will always be a part of it.

Either way, an Ehlers contract would likely put him at $6.5-7M6Y due to the increasing cap. The numbers some people propose would put him lower than any reasonable comparable in the whole league.

You seem to be the one of several who is pushing a naritive as it is clear that Babcock replaces him every close game when defending a lead because of Nylander not willing to go to the dirty areas to help us protect a lead. That is a undisputed fact, you seem to be ignoring.

Read every game thread against physical teams and it is the same.. for anyone on here to say that he does not have an issue with fear of being hit that are lying to them selfs.

He got sat as a Marlie in the playoffs as his coach said he needed to compete harder. He must have been lying I guess?
Babcock has called him out as well as he wants him to compete harder. I guess he is a liar as well!
He plays like a frieghten child when facing physical intimidating teams and unless that changes why would we want to sign him long term for that reason alone, then add in he wants to play center which is a position that you need to have some jam to play effectively and you are avocating to pay him young star money with term when he has proven to have a serious flaw in his game. If the plan was to keep him at wing which I think it should be as it is easier to hide a fearful player on the wall then perhaps an in between deal could be done. I think that this coming year will see him exposed further as people watch games and the whole league watched a frieghten player.

 

[Sypher04]

Why in god's name are people still on this bridge nonsense...

Also wow to the idea that Matthews & Marner on bridge deals is a good idea. That would be monumentally stupid cap management.

 

[ToneDog]

There isn't a substantial enough difference in the price. Let's say you do 3 years on Nylander at 4.5M versus the 6M you could just pay now to get the 7 year deal. 1.5M savings...what can you even do with that? If Nylander commands $7.5-9m later on you look pretty foolish. Multiply that foolishness x3 and you might as well kiss your job good bye.

You are right. Possibility of bridging Matthews and Marner is almost zero. What scares me are some of the numbers being put out there by the media. Like Matthews and Tavares commanding McDavid money and if Matthews gets $12M, what is Marner going to ask for , $9M ?? We will soon be in the same situation the Hawks were in, having to dump good players due to the cap, if we sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander to a number in the $28M (12+9+7) neigbourhood.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You are right. Possibility of bridging Matthews and Marner is almost zero. What scares me are some of the numbers being put out there by the media. Like Matthews and Tavares commanding McDavid money and if Matthews gets $12M, what is Marner going to ask for , $9M ?? We will soon be in the same situation the Hawks were in, having to dump good players due to the cap, if we sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander to a number in the $28M (12+9+7) neigbourhood.

Matthews 10-11M

Nylander 6M, 6.5M at the most. After that I don't have an interest in Nylander, he's not a 7M guy to me but it's just my opinion. If he won't come off that kind of money then I do look at trade options, and if they don't present themselves, I bridge and trade when a good opportunity becomes available.

Marner is tough because he doesn't *need* to sign with us, if he bets on himself and has a great season next year, he could be more in line for a 7-8M cap hit. I think if we could make a strong offer of 8 years at 6.5-6.75M this summer we'd be winning in the long run

 

[Silver91]

There isn't a substantial enough difference in the price. Let's say you do 3 years on Nylander at 4.5M versus the 6M you could just pay now to get the 7 year deal. 1.5M savings...what can you even do with that? If Nylander commands $7.5-9m later on you look pretty foolish. Multiply that foolishness x3 and you might as well kiss your job good bye.

If Willy is willing to sign long term for $6M or less, yeah, of course you do it. But, if he's looking for over $7M, which is very possible given his comps and a rising cap, then saving $2M+ on a bridge is definitely worth it. x3, and you've got yourself another impact player.

I also never said bridging is the only way, just that I'm perfectly comfortable doing it, if it makes sense. This idea that it would never make sense is false.

And, like I said earlier, them earning more is not the end of the world. Even if you tack $2-3M onto their cap hits vs. signing them long-term right now, that doesn't guarantee losing any of them. But, even if you do have to trade one, you aren't losing them for nothing, as you'd get a ton of futures for a prime Marner/Nylander.

At the end of the day, you make the decision that helps the team most, both now and in the future. If you have to sign all 3 to long-term deals that are too pricey, you lose the ability to add in the short-term while not really saving much in the long-term.

It becomes a question of how much do you want to sacrifice in the next 4 years to save some money for the following 4? Or how much are you willing to sacrifice 4 years out to add an extra impact player for the next 3-4?

Either way, if you don't win a Cup with this group, you look foolish and might as well kiss your job goodbye!

You are right. Possibility of bridging Matthews and Marner is almost zero. What scares me are some of the numbers being put out there by the media. Like Matthews and Tavares commanding McDavid money and if Matthews gets $12M, what is Marner going to ask for , $9M ?? We will soon be in the same situation the Hawks were in, having to dump good players due to the cap, if we sign Matthews, Marner and Nylander to a number in the $28M (12+9+7) neigbourhood.

If it happens, it happens. The Hawks had a 7-8 year run of perennial contention, winning 3 Cups in that span. Are we really looking at that team as a negative? Their problem was giving bulky contracts to players like Seabrook, and signing those cap circumventing deals with Keith and Hossa. That restricted them a lot, and I think the FO that Dubas is putting together will avoid making those same mistakes.

 

[diceman934]

Feels like a fanbase filled with haters. Or should a call them scapegoatzombies. Marner aint better than Nylander they got different skills. And streaks. The advanced data shows this realy clear. The zombies opinions will turn with the current player who is in a pointstreak. Thats how a scapegoatzombie works, they just turn to another scapegoat if the first scapegoat escapes.

Around 6mils+ iguess

Nylander will play better at C but he needs Johansson and hard working sniper . But no puckhog , thats Nylanders role.

Marner is a better player period.

His impact on the game the ability to drive offence when playing against all the top lines and no matter who he plays with separates him self over Nylander. Add in one is afraid to play a tough game and you have a wide separation between the two of them.

Calling people names takes a lot away from your post or do you always call people names who do not agree with you.

 

[Liminality]

Matthews 10-11M

Nylander 6M, 6.5M at the most. After that I don't have an interest in Nylander, he's not a 7M guy to me but it's just my opinion. If he won't come off that kind of money then I do look at trade options, and if they don't present themselves, I bridge and trade when a good opportunity becomes available.

Marner is tough because he doesn't *need* to sign with us, if he bets on himself and has a great season next year, he could be more in line for a 7-8M cap hit. I think if we could make a strong offer of 8 years at 6.5-6.75M this summer we'd be winning in the long run

I agree that Nylander should hopefully get something between 6-6.5 long term but the longer you go in term with Nylander, the more likely he's going to get around 7m. You've got to see the cap hit % of his comparable contracts and that places Nylander around the 7m. I don't think the extra 500k he might get is worthy of throwing him out in a trade.

You can try to sign Marner and Matthews this offseason but I doubt they sign anything until next year when they know they could put up some massive numbers.

 

[Albi34]

Dear lord bridging the Big 3 is such a horrible cap move. We already know what they are capable of so the term isnt a risk, and then youre setting yourself up to pay them after they likely hit their prime seasons..have fun paying each of them 8+ million long term when the bridge is done.

 

[Mess]

There isn't a substantial enough difference in the price. Let's say you do 3 years on Nylander at 4.5M versus the 6M you could just pay now to get the 7 year deal. 1.5M savings...what can you even do with that? If Nylander commands $7.5-9m later on you look pretty foolish. Multiply that foolishness x3 and you might as well kiss your job good bye.

Contracts are a 2-way street.

Who is to say Nylander is on board with this plan?

If Nylander believes he will be worth $7.5-$9 mil per year potentially in 3 years time (ie the current Draisaitl deal/$$$ level contract) as you suggest, then why would he agree to 7-8 year deal @ ~$6-6.5 mil now?

Willie would look pretty foolish, and leave a lot of money on the table if he is making $6 mil per long term & his actual stats ( +75 points annually) suggest he is worth $9 mil during the term of this next contract.

Willie seems like a confident kind of guy that would be willing to bet on his own abilities and thus be more inclined to want a bridge deal now to prove he is worth a much bigger contract thereafter.

 

[Liminality]

Dear lord bridging the Big 3 is such a horrible cap move. We already know what they are capable of so the term isnt a risk, and then youre setting yourself up to pay them after they likely hit their prime seasons..have fun paying each of them 8+ million long term when the bridge is done.

Definitely, to save up on cap space for as long as possible you've got to hand these guys long term contracts now. I think it's obvious that all of the big three deserve big contracts.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Contracts are a 2-way street.

Who is to say Nylander is on board with this plan?

If Nylander believes he will be worth $7.5-$9 mil per year potentially in 3 years time (ie the current Draisaitl deal/$$$ level contract) as you suggest, then why would he agree to 7-8 year deal @ ~$6-6.5 mil now?

Willie would look pretty foolish, and leave a lot of money on the table if he is making $6 mil per long term & his actual stats ( +75 points annually) suggest he is worth $9 mil during the term of this next contract.

Good thing he doesn't have any arbitration rights

 

[ToneDog]

If Willy is willing to sign long term for $6M or less, yeah, of course you do it. But, if he's looking for over $7M, which is very possible given his comps and a rising cap, then saving $2M+ on a bridge is definitely worth it. x3, and you've got yourself another impact player.

I also never said bridging is the only way, just that I'm perfectly comfortable doing it, if it makes sense. This idea that it would never make sense is false.

And, like I said earlier, them earning more is not the end of the world. Even if you tack $2-3M onto their cap hits vs. signing them long-term right now, that doesn't guarantee losing any of them. But, even if you do have to trade one, you aren't losing them for nothing, as you'd get a ton of futures for a prime Marner/Nylander.

At the end of the day, you make the decision that helps the team most, both now and in the future. If you have to sign all 3 to long-term deals that are too pricey, you lose the ability to add in the short-term while not really saving much in the long-term.

It becomes a question of how much do you want to sacrifice in the next 4 years to save some money for the following 4? Or how much are you willing to sacrifice 4 years out to add an extra impact player for the next 3-4?

Either way, if you don't win a Cup with this group, you look foolish and might as well kiss your job goodbye!



If it happens, it happens. The Hawks had a 7-8 year run of perennial contention, winning 3 Cups in that span. Are we really looking at that team as a negative? Their problem was giving bulky contracts to players like Seabrook, and signing those cap circumventing deals with Keith and Hossa. That restricted them a lot, and I think the FO that Dubas is putting together will avoid making those same mistakes.

Winning three cups is never a negative. I didn't want to get long winded so I did not mention the SCs. You are correct about bad contracts but you have to be very cautious. There is no guarantee any long term deal turns out well..Need to be especially careful when handing it out to an older player. Luckily our boys are very young.

 

[Mess]

It comes down to how quickly he develops.

If he puts up 70+ points as early as next season even a bigger money deal (ie 7 mil) looks great for the Leafs.

What if they move him to 3rd line C and give him a couple of youngsters Kapanen and Johnsson with sheltered minutes (replacing Bozak) and 2PP minutes and he produces points in the 50's?

Do you want to be paying your 3rd line C $7 mil per?

70+ points seems more like #1RW riding shotgun with Matthews and #1pp minutes.

Leafs management and Nylander need to define his role before they agree on a new contract and term. IMO

 

[Mess]

Good thing he doesn't have any arbitration rights

True, but that doesn't mean he is forced into a long-term deal either, or sit out and miss games unsigned either necessarily.

While Willie is sitting waiting around maybe his agent might test the "offersheet waters" and get Leafs to match any contract he might be able to secure for his client.

Offersheet $$ >> Arbitration rights $$

 

[Sypher04]

I don't get why people think Nylander is somehow different from any other young budding star in the NHL.

They overwhelming majority of them sign long term extensions. We have literally no reason to think it's going to be any different with him.

 

[Silver91]

Dear lord bridging the Big 3 is such a horrible cap move. We already know what they are capable of so the term isnt a risk, and then youre setting yourself up to pay them after they likely hit their prime seasons..have fun paying each of them 8+ million long term when the bridge is done.

Again, assuming they all sign for 7-8 seasons.

Long-term = $26M
34 = 12 * 8
16 = 7.5 * 8
29 = 7 * 7

vs.

Bridge = $18M ($8M Savings)
34 = 7.5 * 3
16 = 5.5 * 3
29 = 5 * 3

3rd Contracts = $34M ($8M cap lost)
34 = 15 * 8
16 = 10 * 8
29 = 9 * 8

If you can't afford to keep both 16/29, you trade one for futures/NHL ready players, and move on. If you can get them for closer to $22-23M (10/7/6), then yeah, the savings can be made up elsewhere on the roster and you sign them long-term. But if they're gunning for market value, take the savings on bridge deals, add an extra impact player (on top of the other one that we can already add), and throw everything you can at winning a Cup(s) in the next 4 years, then deal with other issues later.

The difference between what they're gonna make on long-term deals now vs. long-term deals 3-4 years from now isn't so significant that Dubas & co. won't be able to deal with it down the road. Even their 3rd contracts being that high is unlikely, given how long it takes for NHL salaries to inflate. You'd probably be able to get them signed closer to $30M combined, which would not make a difference at that point, with a cap rising close to $90M+

 

[Silver91]

Winning three cups is never a negative. I didn't want to get long winded so I did not mention the SCs. You are correct about bad contracts but you have to be very cautious. There is no guarantee any long term deal turns out well..Need to be especially careful when handing it out to an older player. Luckily our boys are very young.

Pretty much, this is a big part of why I'm ok going 3+8. Having them sign 8-year deals that start at age 25 means they end at age 32, which is the perfect time for those big contracts to end.

I think a lot of people get hung up on keeping everyone they can. At the end of the day, hard choices will need to be made. If knowing those hard choices are coming means we have a shot at a dynasty, I don't know how anyone could pass that up.

 

[thewave]

Definitely, to save up on cap space for as long as possible you've got to hand these guys long term contracts now. I think it's obvious that all of the big three deserve big contracts.

I don't think you are approaching this the right way. There is a very good chance that the next CBA will be clawing back. You are also talking about buying potential which is high risk. There are questions to be asked, Matthews back, compete level and PO performance, Nylander as well.

Screwing up a rebuild is actually easy. Most teams do, badly.

I mean if y

 

[Nithoniniel]

You seem to be the one of several who is pushing a naritive as it is clear that Babcock replaces him every close game when defending a lead because of Nylander not willing to go to the dirty areas to help us protect a lead. That is a undisputed fact, you seem to be ignoring.

It is not an undisputed fact since this is just speculation. None of us know Babcock's motivations. And it is quite the stretch to say that his issues against Boston is a common problem despite never having occurred before just because he is also not one of the select group of players that Babcock wants out to close a game. The two things are barely connected.

Read every game thread against physical teams and it is the same.. for anyone on here to say that he does not have an issue with fear of being hit that are lying to them selfs.

There is absolutely no statistical support for this opinion at all. There is no trend where the more physical teams in the league neutralize Willy. None whatsoever. In fact, his points average is actually higher against the most physical teams than his normal average.

Another thing I've pointed out to you, apparently in vain.

The GDTs are most often a cesspool of hot takes by overgrown children who can't handle disappointments, so I couldn't care less what is said there. If you go by GDTs, Matthews disappeared completely in the playoffs, Rielly can't defend and is a liability every second night, and Gardiner is an AHL-level player.

He got sat as a Marlie in the playoffs as his coach said he needed to compete harder. He must have been lying I guess?

Having been sat in playoffs as a teenager for not working hard enough is proof that this intimidation factor is an ongoing factor?

Yet again your way of arguing that Nylander actually has severe long-term problem seem to be to throw any kind of crap you can think of against him, and as always it just makes you come as irrational.

Babcock has called him out as well as he wants him to compete harder. I guess he is a liar as well!

We are not discussing whether Nylander always competes as hard as we'd like.

He plays like a frieghten child when facing physical intimidating teams...

False. Pure conjecture.

... why would we want to sign him long term for that reason alone

Because ignoring the larger picture due to factors like this is how you end up trading Seguin, or getting rid of Hall. And the best case for a high-end young player that perhaps should not have gotten that kind of money due to playoff performances would be Kuznetsov, the guy currently in the Stanley Cup finals having a Conn Smythe-worthy postseason. There's a high-end talent who tended to disappear when the going got tough. Go ask Caps fans how much of a problem he is for them.

then add in he wants to play center which is a position that you need to have some jam to play effectively

Yeah, unlike guys like Seguin and Bäckström who clearly can't play the position effectively...

you are avocating to pay him young star money with term when he has proven to have a serious flaw in his game.

He has not proven to have a serious flaw in his game. A few games proves nothing, especially since there's no sign of the issue otherwise, contrary to what you want to believe. That would be like saying it's proven Matthews can't produce without a high-end playmaker on his right side. Actually there would be a better case for that, as the sample size is much bigger.

And none of Willy's comparables, the ones we want to tailor his deal after, were flawless either. If he was a flawless player, he'd command so much more.

I think that this coming year will see him exposed further as people watch games and the whole league watched a frieghten player.

Oh, people will start watching games next season? Cool.

Thank you for so willingly exemplifying everything I said in my post though. Ignoring everything I brought up and just throwing even more crap at Willy while repeating derogatory remarks over and over as if that makes them true.

As for pushing narratives. I go where the facts take me, I don't selectively ignore them because they don't fit my message. If there for example would be a trend where Nylander doesn't score against physical teams, I'd be right there with you saying it's a problem. But such a trend doesn't exist, so I won't.

 

[Sypher04]

I don't think you are approaching this the right way. There is a very good chance that the next CBA will be clawing back. You are also talking about buying potential which is high risk. There are questions to be asked, Matthews back, compete level and PO performance, Nylander as well.

Screwing up a rebuild is actually easy. Most teams do, badly.

I mean if y

There is no question of Matthews' compete level.