Will the Wild make the Playoffs?

[BigT2002]

All things considered, the two places I follow for probability (Twitter account and Athletic writer) have the Wild making it at around 85% right now.

Big thing is, like the Wolves, they need to stop dropping so many games on the road to winnable teams. Even loser points are going to start mattering here shortly.

 

[nickschultzfan]

All things considered, Wild getting last spot and Vegas getting top might be the most favorable playoff arrangement for us.

 

[Wabit]

All things considered, Wild getting last spot and Vegas getting top might be the most favorable playoff arrangement for us.

Go play in the Pacific with Vegas as the 1st round opponent is what I've been hoping for. Play the Flames in the 2nd round. Play the Jets in the WCF. Play the Devils for the Cup. That's my way too early prediction for the Playoffs.

 

[57special]

LA scares me as a Wild Card rival. That team defense is simply too good to ignore, and bodes well down the stretch. Wild simply aren't that good of a defensive team now, though getting Brodin back should help a bit.

 

[Wabit]

LA scares me as a Wild Card rival. That team defense is simply too good to ignore, and bodes well down the stretch. Wild simply aren't that good of a defensive team now, though getting Brodin back should help a bit.

I think LA takes 2nd or 3rd in the Pacific and the Ducks miss the Playoffs. SJ and the Flames (rooting for the Flames) fight it out for the other spot.

 

[MNNumbers]

I'm going to do a full up won-loss analysis of the entire season (margin of victory ignored) considering strength of schedule sometime in the next few days....

Right now, I think that Dallas and Minnesota will be the WCs. I'm not sold on Vegas holding out to win the conference regular season, though. So, WC1 might be the preferred spot, to get into the Pac bracket.

In the Pacific, I think I would take SJ and LA. Playoffs overall:
From Canada: Winnpeg is in, Toronto is in. Calgary still has a chance. The others are out. Another tough year for the Canadian chase for another SC.

 

[Wabit]

I'm going to do a full up won-loss analysis of the entire season (margin of victory ignored) considering strength of schedule sometime in the next few days....

Right now, I think that Dallas and Minnesota will be the WCs. I'm not sold on Vegas holding out to win the conference regular season, though. So, WC1 might be the preferred spot, to get into the Pac bracket.

In the Pacific, I think I would take SJ and LA. Playoffs overall:
From Canada: Winnpeg is in, Toronto is in. Calgary still has a chance. The others are out. Another tough year for the Canadian chase for another SC.

I'll be interested to see those stats. What I'd like to see after the season is a similar set of stats just containing the time after the TDL to the end of the season. Just to compare the how the TDL affects teams over a ~20 game sample size.

 

[MNNumbers]

I'll be interested to see those stats. What I'd like to see after the season is a similar set of stats just containing the time after the TDL to the end of the season. Just to compare the how the TDL affects teams over a ~20 game sample size.

My method is called, in the statistical realm, a Bradley-Terry analysis. It works like this:
Assume each time has a rating associated with them such that the odds of Team 1 beating Team 2 are (Rating1)/(Rating1 + Rating2). This would be a great rating to have. For one thing, if you can find the numbers, it allows you to bypass schedule differences and their results in the usual standings.

If you have the numbers, you can apply those odds, and go back and replay all games, and give each team the "Odds" instead of their points for the whole year, and at the end, you get exactly the right standings.

Turns out that, with just the schedules, and the number of total wins each team has, you can get the numbers. But, it's tedious.

I'll publish the current ones here, and then keep track of after TDL for you as well, if you want. Or, I could send you the excel files and you can do it yourself. Whichever you prefer.

 

[Wabit]

My method is called, in the statistical realm, a Bradley-Terry analysis. It works like this:
Assume each time has a rating associated with them such that the odds of Team 1 beating Team 2 are (Rating1)/(Rating1 + Rating2). This would be a great rating to have. For one thing, if you can find the numbers, it allows you to bypass schedule differences and their results in the usual standings.

If you have the numbers, you can apply those odds, and go back and replay all games, and give each team the "Odds" instead of their points for the whole year, and at the end, you get exactly the right standings.

Turns out that, with just the schedules, and the number of total wins each team has, you can get the numbers. But, it's tedious.

I'll publish the current ones here, and then keep track of after TDL for you as well, if you want. Or, I could send you the excel files and you can do it yourself. Whichever you prefer.

No need to put yourself out, and honestly your excel sheets would probably be lost on me. I ain't the brightest bulb on the tree.* I just find others analysis interesting.

*I'm guessing at least a few on here were nodding their heads with that statement.

 

[chchelseII]

Or you could look here:Sports Club Stats

 

[MNNumbers]

As Promised:
Bradley-Terry Regression Analysis of Games through Feb 19.
These Rankings are on an odds scale. That means that if Team A plays Team B, the odds of Team A winning are:
(Ranking of Team A)/(Ranking of Team A + Ranking of Team B)

These contain all strength of schedule effects, which are completely built in to the math, with no guesses about how strong the teams are. The math works all of that out internally, without any person putting in any value.

What these rankings do NOT do is:
Consider injuries
Consider that every team is hot sometimes and cold others.

Metro:
Was: 125.4
Pitts: 115.1
Phil: 107.2
NJ: 104.2
Car: 88.0
Cmb: 87.9
NYI: 86.4
NYR: 76.0

Atl:
Bos: 157.6
TBL: 152.0
Tor: 124.4
Flo: 83.2
Det: 74.7
Ott: 62.8
Mon: 60.7
Buf: 48.4

Cent:
Nash: 153.5
Winn: 144.3
Min: 115.6
Dal: 114.8
StL: 113.7
Col: 103.2
Chi: 75.4

Pac:
Veg: 160.5
SJS: 113.0
Ana: 107.2
LA: 105.8
Cal: 104.2
Van: 65.5
Edm: 65.5
Arz: 51.0

Minnesota is actually 4th in the West, by a very slight margin, and would play Winnipeg if these determined the playoffs. My own commentary would be that these suggest that the Wild are a good bet to qualify as it is.

And, tonight's St Louis loss helps that more.

 

[BigT2002]

I'd still say they are going to make it, it will be down to the wire as usual with this squad doing so. They need to stop dropping easy games.

 

[Drewcifer]

If they had won those games against Arizona and Anaheim they would be in third in the Central right now.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

If they had won those games against Arizona and Anaheim they would be in third in the Central right now.

Every team has games that they let slip away and games that they won when they shouldn't have. I'm sure it all evens out.

 

[Goose312]

Having to go through NSH/WPG is the biggest booby prize this postseason. Vegas has looked more and more mortal. They are probably too far ahead to lose the Pacific lead at this point but I expect the central to pass them so if the Wild can end up in WC1 and head out west for round 1 that's about as ideal as it can be in my opinion.

 

[Wabit]

Having to go through NSH/WPG is the biggest booby prize this postseason. Vegas has looked more and more mortal. They are probably too far ahead to lose the Pacific lead at this point but I expect the central to pass them so if the Wild can end up in WC1 and head out west for round 1 that's about as ideal as it can be in my opinion.

The thing that worries me the most about a potential Vegas matchup is they have a Cup winning goalie in MAF. We've seen one of those (Crawford) stone the Wild more than one in the Playoffs.

 

[57special]

Fleury has also been crap in the PO's at other times. Not worried about him. I am not at all sold on this team this year, but CHI, and perhaps STL self destructing has more than made up for WPG's rise. The Cali teams are not as strong as they used to be, either.

NSH looks like the class of the league. If they get a player like Nash then it's all but certain that they will come out of the West.

 

[Wabit]

STL has 2 games before the TDL Jets and @.Nash. Lost those 2 games and they'll have dropped out of the Playoffs. I wonder if they'll make a panic/all or nothing move at the TDL?

 

[BigT2002]

Every team has games that they let slip away and games that they won when they shouldn't have. I'm sure it all evens out.

Well we all would hope it evens out. But in some instances, it doesn't and those games lost end up costing in the end.

 

[57special]

I think there is something about Yeo's system that wears on players.

 

[Wabit]

I think there is something about Yeo's system that wears on players.

Playing the defense/mental game he expects game in and game out might take a bigger toll on the mind/body than a more wide open game.

His system "should" work great in the Playoffs, but the 82 games to get to that point might just suck the life out of a team too much. Pure speculation here.

 

[Bazeek]

Playing the defense/mental game he expects game in and game out might take a bigger toll on the mind/body than a more wide open game.

His system "should" work great in the Playoffs, but the 82 games to get to that point might just suck the life out of a team too much. Pure speculation here.

It does sound like there's a lot of the "we weren't prepared mentally" stuff coming from Yeo right now after losses. We'll see how the Blues do with it.

 

[Wabit]

It does sound like there's a lot of the "we weren't prepared mentally" stuff coming from Yeo right now after losses. We'll see how the Blues do with it.

He made the same comments yearly here also. To be fair, BB has said the same thing about this year's Wild team.

 

[DANOZ28]

i wish we were tanking to get a good draft pick but this team has the talent to turn it up a notch down the stretch and make the playoffs which is what i think will happen. i dont see a contender when im watching. whats sad is i thought we had a top 10 team going into this season.

 

[ThatGuy22]

i wish we were tanking to get a good draft pick but this team has the talent to turn it up a notch down the stretch and make the playoffs which is what i think will happen. i dont see a contender when im watching. whats sad is i thought we had a top 10 team going into this season.

They do. The wild are 7th in the league in Pointers percentage, gaining 1.216 standings points per game played.