Series Talk: Will the Pittsburgh Penguins qualify for the 2024 playoffs?

[Zirakzigil]

They easily make it in. Bigger question is if Boston squeaks in or gets passed by the Sens/Sabres. I expect that the Pens will be fighting for 2nd/3rd in division actually.

 

[molon labe]

Health is the asterisk.

I voted yes - but if either of the top 2 C's go down....we're utterly F'd. We don't have the defense, goals are actually projected to increase again this year - and our goalie is already a 3GAA goalie. No way can 1 line in the top 6 consistently outscore opponents. We'll see if Letang/Karlsson on the ice for 40 minutes a night can really bring out some offensive from that bottom 6 because on paper they're a big bag of mush. I think a bigger question is whether the bottom 6 plus plugs will score over/under 60 total goals this year.

 

[SomeDude]

50/50.

+I think EK helps a ton and should add
a couple W’s on his own.

-The odds that Malkin and Sid both avoid missing time again is probably 6 million to 1. It’s a matter of how much time is missed.

-I have no faith in the depth players being capable of filling an offensive role when a top 6 is out and less faith in Sullivan to give that chance to a young player who may or may not be capable.

+ I do think Dubas is aggressive enough to attempt to plug holes as the season goes on.

+Tristan Jarry will be our goalie before the all-star game
—————Tristan Jarry will be our goalie after the all-star game

 

[LOGiK]

They easily make it in. Bigger question is if Boston squeaks in or gets passed by the Sens/Sabres. I expect that the Pens will be fighting for 2nd/3rd in division actually.

A few coin flips to make it, and one or two 'easily makes it in' and that is pretty surprising to me... after what they showed last year and this year 'easy' is the last word I'd ever use to a describe how a season will go for an elder squad with a glass goalie. Everyone is free to their opinions, but.... I am seriously miffed as to wonder, what happened to this team that makes it 'easy' to make the post season all of the sudden?

 

[Night Shift]

How are they gonna make it when Injarry has 2 flat tires in his skates?

Tip of the Iceburgh Podcast is on top of this story.

Better make a partnership with AAA in case he gets really Injarred.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

People keep banging on about their age and I get it... it'll catch up. It always does.

But that wasn't this team's problem last year.

 

[Turin]

Stars are gonna be extra motivated even if they’re a year older. Karlsson is gonna be a huge difference. PK should be better. Guentzel is in a contract year. I’d say they make it easily if Karlsson and Letang are both healthy, more so than if Crosby and Malkin miss time or not.

 

[SEALBound]

Depends if we get Tatar on a $1mil deal this year. Yes, then yes. No, then no.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Voted Yes.

70/30

I will give credit to the No people if we don't have major injury problems.

I hope they are wrong.

 

[Night Shift]

Voted Yes.

70/30

I will give credit to the No people if we don't have major injury problems.

I hope they are wrong.

I voted no because of Injarry. Hes worse than prime Hextall at the end of the year when it counts, floundering like an injured fish.

 

[Freeptop]

They should be better than last year, if only due to Karlsson.
But there are still a lot of uncertainties involved:
1. Injuries
1. Goaltending
1. Does the all-defense bottom six work the way they want
1. Do we get massive regressions on multiple players at once
1. This is the Penguins. Injuries are going to happen. Do they go all "next man up" as they have in the past to weather them, or is this the year that it all falls apart, instead?

I'm not fully confident they'll make it in because of the above, but I think the chances of them making the playoffs are better than not.

 

[Zirakzigil]

A few coin flips to make it, and one or two 'easily makes it in' and that is pretty surprising to me... after what they showed last year and this year 'easy' is the last word I'd ever use to a describe how a season will go for an elder squad with a glass goalie. Everyone is free to their opinions, but.... I am seriously miffed as to wonder, what happened to this team that makes it 'easy' to make the post season all of the sudden?

I fully expected that Petry would help Geno and the 2nd line create more offense. Offensively Karlsson is a world ahead of him in that regard. I also expect the PP to be greatly improved. We had 3 issues last year, a horrific PP, black hole offense from our bottom 6 and subpar goaltending. We addressed 2 out of 3 for sure, remains to be seen if Jarry bounces back from injuries and inconsistencies. My only concern in Ruh playing regularly and a toilet paper soft defense.

 

[Night Shift]

But Karlsson doesnt actually prevent the puck from going in the net. Granted all our Dmen will try and help Injarry. But Injarry can't help himself.

 

[Zirakzigil]

But Karlsson doesnt actually prevent the puck from going in the net. Granted all our Dmen will try and help Injarry. But Injarry can't help himself.

With how many defensemen we used last year..... Id argue they didnt then either.

 

[Peat]

People be questioning the goaltending and I'll just point out that the Pens had the 13th best goaltending in the league last year.

They were 20th for xGA allowed though. 20th for CA, 25th for SA, 18th for SCA, 21st for HDCA...

Or to put it another way, the numbers will tell you the had Penguins had a below average defence. Sure it's a problem the goalies couldn't bail them out more often, but team defence was worse against its peers than the goalies.

Also, 14th for PP% and 8th for PP goals scored. Lot of meat left on the bone but again, got to question it being the biggest problem.

 

[Zirakzigil]

People be questioning the goaltending and I'll just point out that the Pens had the 13th best goaltending in the league last year.

They were 20th for xGA allowed though. 20th for CA, 25th for SA, 18th for SCA, 21st for HDCA...

Or to put it another way, the numbers will tell you the had Penguins had a below average defence. Sure it's a problem the goalies couldn't bail them out more often, but team defence was worse against its peers than the goalies.

Also, 14th for PP% and 8th for PP goals scored. Lot of meat left on the bone but again, got to question it being the biggest problem.

Couldnt get a save when we needed though. Jarry was 20th and CDS 28th for save percentage, factoring a minimum of 20 games played.

 

[NeedleInTheHay]

Bottom six is trash, they’re old, guentzel is hurt, and I don’t trust Jarry. Voted miss.

 

[LOGiK]

We addressed 2 out of 3 for sure, remains to be seen if Jarry bounces back from injuries and inconsistencies. My only concern in Ruh playing regularly and a toilet paper soft defense.

The defense can be either the impetus to a strong offense or two or more fold a burden --
pressure on the offense to keep pace of equal or greater opposition scoring and / or---
tax the forwards to help out and bail them out of hem-in's or failed break out attempts / turnovers.

In short I think so much comes on a decent back end to the point even if they aren't so great defending, at the so very least getting the puck out of there to give them relief and put it on the offense, which has crosby / malkin / jake etc etc etc...

 

[Peat]

Couldnt get a save when we needed though. Jarry was 20th and CDS 28th for save percentage, factoring a minimum of 20 games played.

62 goalies played 20 or more game. That's saying Jarry and CDS were both in the upper half of goalies last year.

You can also express it as 15 teams had at least one goalie with a better save percentage than Jarry (NYI, Boston, Vegas, Dallas had two) - which puts us right at the median for our best goalie.

It's very hard to get the numbers to say anything other than the Penguins had average goaltending last year.

And if average goaltending can't get a save when needed, it's time to start looking at the saves they're being asked to make.

At which point you have below average defence numerically - you have this article pointing out the way the Pens forecheck fell away when defending games, which we saw - and a wide array of suicide passes and blown assignments to pick from the highlights.

And I've got to really question the idea that the Penguins only had a goaltending problem.

 

[Zirakzigil]

62 goalies played 20 or more game. That's saying Jarry and CDS were both in the upper half of goalies last year.

You can also express it as 15 teams had at least one goalie with a better save percentage than Jarry (NYI, Boston, Vegas, Dallas had two) - which puts us right at the median for our best goalie.

It's very hard to get the numbers to say anything other than the Penguins had average goaltending last year.

And if average goaltending can't get a save when needed, it's time to start looking at the saves they're being asked to make.

At which point you have below average defence numerically - you have this article pointing out the way the Pens forecheck fell away when defending games, which we saw - and a wide array of suicide passes and blown assignments to pick from the highlights.

And I've got to really question the idea that the Penguins only had a goaltending problem.

Fine, I will simplify it even more. A .909 save percentage isnt good enough, period. Thats what Jarry was at.

 

[AuroraBorealis]

Whatever goaltending issues we had didn't come close to being our biggest problem.
We were 45 goals below what league average shooting would have given us.

Wanna make the playoffs? Fix that shit. Looking at guys like you, Rust.

 

[Ugene Magic]

 

[cygnus47]

I guess I’m the only one who thought they’d miss again lol…not surprised…i have two concerns, well three: 1) Jarry, I don’t trust him; 2) I don’t trust that we’re going to get 82 games from both Sid and Geno again, I think there will be significant injuries to key players, and I dont see anyone on the roster good enough at scoring to pick up their slack if they miss time and 3) Sullivan, I don’t trust him anymore either…I think we’re too old to play like we do for 82 games and he won’t do shit about it

I think we’ll make it but agree on the 3 points. Except i don’t think it’s age but just a shit system that only the early 2000s devils could win with and he makes worse every year by doubling down in the wrong direction and not fixing his own shortcomings.

 

[tom_servo]

This will be like the '09 team settling unfinished business, but it's squeaking into the playoffs on the last day of the season.

Interestingly that game is against NYI. Could be a decider.

 

[LOGiK]

I think we’ll make it but agree on the 3 points. Except i don’t think it’s age but just a shit system that only the early 2000s devils could win with and he makes worse every year by doubling down in the wrong direction and not fixing his own shortcomings.

I honestly forgot about the putrid system they play by. Not to even think about the last time it had success, and how many years going at it with the same worthless system just rotate and shuffle players to hope it works again. That is not how strategies work. This team is broken under two years of hex and co... man must have been a nice free ride for a bit.