Will Matthews score more than Ovechkin by the end of his career?

[Midnight Judges]

It’s hilarious that you typed all of this with a straight face. Laine is irrelevant for starters, not sure what else to say if you’re drawing any connection between the Laine and Matthews comparisons and Ovechkin Matthews at this point…

Ovechkin never came close to an “unofficial” 50 in 50 in the same season, his best stretch was 43 in 50 and Matthews did 51 in 50. That’s close enough considering eras, but Matthews has the edge in their peak seasons up to the same point.

Ovechkin scored 48 goals in 50 games at one point during some of the lowest scoring seasons.

 

[LeProspector]

I am a Matthews hater, and I think it‘s definitely within the realm of possibility, if you think otherwise you have an obvious bias against the Leafs/Matthews.

 

[authentic]

Ovechkin scored 48 goals in 50 games at one point during some of the lowest scoring seasons.

Wasn’t that across two seasons though? Second half of 2012-13 and beginning of 2013-14… Still amazing but not quite the same thing.

 

[Sinistril]

If this generational goal scoring talent played for any other team in the league everybody would be celebrating it like they usually do. But because he plays for the Leafs people can't even put their buthurt aside for even 1 second to acknowledge what an insane talent we're witnessing.

It's like dealing with toddlers

People still hate Ovechkin, who is the best pure goal scorer of all time, despite the fact he plays for Washington, a team that absolutely no one hated before they had success (thanks to Ovechkin). Stop pretending to be a victim just because you cheer for the leafs

 

[Guinnes66]

Only 6 players (including Ovi) in NHL history have scored even 300 goals after turning 30. Several of those who played well into their 40s and Ovi being the only one who has done it in the cap era.

Plenty of great all time goal scorers have had incredible paces early in their careers like Matthews so far. Gretzky himself had such a massive massive head start on Ovi, moreso than Matthews, and yet Ovi is set to break his record pretty easily. Again, any talk of Matthews having any chance of even sniffing it is incredibly premature.

All true, i think we all realize that to score >300 goals after age 30 its going to take a generational level goal scorer to do so as its extremely hard to do. But we have to start realizing that Matthews is at least starting to make the case that he belongs in the discussion of generational goal scorer based on 8 seasons of data now, which is nothing to sneeze at, and the fact that is doing things that have not been done for 40 years (scoring 50 in 50 2 years ago, almost doing it again this year, on track to have the 2nd best era adjusted goal total of all time, and to date out-scoring ovechkin who is now considered the goal scoring goat).

Sure you can say this discussion is premature, but just like the ovechkin thread back in 2014 that asked the same question i think matthews has least done enough to now say that the possibility of him surpassing ovechkin is in the realm of possibility and is no longer something that can be dismissed as pure fantasy. No one here is claiming that its a sure bet for him to accomplish this, but there absolutely is a realistic path for him to do it. The league having higher scoring now is only going to help his case. All of this is of course predicated on him avoiding major health problems.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Wasn’t that across two seasons though? Second half of 2012-13 and beginning of 2013-14… Still amazing but not quite the same thing.

Yes, you are correct.

Although I'm not sure that distinction is of particular importance. They were basically consecutive games (maybe he missed 1 game or something - not sure).

People still hate Ovechkin, who is the best pure goal scorer of all time, despite the fact he plays for Washington, a team that absolutely no one hated before they had success (thanks to Ovechkin). Stop pretending to be a victim just because you cheer for the leafs

Kinda hard to hate the team that lost the most games ever haha.

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

All true, i think we all realize that to score >300 goals after age 30 its going to take a generational level goal scorer to do so as its extremely hard to do. But we have to start realizing that Matthews is at least starting to make the case that he belongs in the discussion of generational goal scorer based on 8 seasons of data now, which is nothing to sneeze at, and the fact that is doing things that have not been done for 40 years (scoring 50 in 50 2 years ago, almost doing it again this year, on track to have the 2nd best era adjusted goal total of all time, and to date out-scoring ovechkin who is now considered the goal scoring goat).

Sure you can say this discussion is premature, but just like the ovechkin thread back in 2014 that asked the same question i think matthews has least done enough to now say that the possibility of him surpassing ovechkin is in the realm of possibility and is no longer something that can be dismissed as pure fantasy. No one here is claiming that its a sure bet for him to accomplish this, but there absolutely is a realistic path for him to do it. The league having higher scoring now is only going to help his case. All of this is of course predicated on him avoiding major health problems.

That's the thing though, it's not that it's going to take a generational level goal scorer. it's going to take generational longevity and to a degree luck. There is not a direct correlation with being a generational level goal scorer and having goal scoring longevity. Bucyk, Ratelle and Selanne are 3 of the names above 300 after 30. The first 2 never won a Rocket and Selanne had an insane outlier rookie year and after that was just a great goal scorer but not generational.

It is premature just like the Ovi discussion in 2014 was premature (and closed accordingly lol). The flat out "no it's impossible" answer is pretty stupid, and I'm not saying that about Matthews as sure it's possible (but it's also possible for plenty of other players). Whether it's likely enough to warrant discussion is the question and I still find those odds to be so stupidly long that it is closer to fantasy than "realistic." Possible and realistic are very different. I will maybe believe realistic in 7 years depending on where Matthews is sitting

All of it is predicated on him having insanely rare goal scoring longevity, not just on him "avoiding major health problems." Higher scoring league will help but not enough to make it worthy of discussion right now. Certainly helps that Matthews plays with some pretty elite playmakers and that could easily change. If the Leafs ever get serious about winning and hire a coach that wants to play a complete team game and win it will affect Matthews' numbers as well, just like Trotz did w/ Ovi.

 

[TOGuy14]

Ovechkin is here because of longevity.

Matty needs to play at this level into at least his early 30s to start this conversation

 

[Guinnes66]

That's the thing though, it's not that it's going to take a generational level goal scorer. it's going to take generational longevity and to a degree luck. There is not a direct correlation with being a generational level goal scorer and having goal scoring longevity. Bucyk, Ratelle and Selanne are 3 of the names above 300 after 30. The first 2 never won a Rocket and Selanne had an insane outlier rookie year and after that was just a great goal scorer but not generational.

It is premature just like the Ovi discussion in 2014 was premature (and closed accordingly lol). The flat out "no it's impossible" answer is pretty stupid, and I'm not saying that about Matthews as sure it's possible (but it's also possible for plenty of other players). Whether it's likely enough to warrant discussion is the question and I still find those odds to be so stupidly long that it is closer to fantasy than "realistic." Possible and realistic are very different. I will maybe believe realistic in 7 years depending on where Matthews is sitting

All of it is predicated on him having insanely rare goal scoring longevity, not just on him "avoiding major health problems." Higher scoring league will help but not enough to make it worthy of discussion right now. Certainly helps that Matthews plays with some pretty elite playmakers and that could easily change. If the Leafs ever get serious about winning and hire a coach that wants to play a complete team game and win it will affect Matthews' numbers as well, just like Trotz did w/ Ovi.

All i can say is I disagree with your assessment that the odds are so stupidly long as to be closer to fantasy than reality. Its a realistic possibility IMO. Most all time greats are able to play until ~ age 38. Matthews banking a large lead over ovechkin now and during his prime will offset the need to have as much overall durability as ovechkin.

In terms of goal scoring longevity, i would agree with you if matthews game was like a bure that relied heavily on speed, or a lindros that played a physical game that took a toll, or even a selanne or mogilny that had unreal outlier seasons early on. But if you put matthews in a simulator his game seems to be perfect for longevity - he avoids contact almost entirely, his game doesnt rely on speed at all, and all his goal are around the net or from the face off dots. He's basically a goal scoring version of joe thornton. His goal scoring over time will likely tail off but there's just not much to his game that screams it will fall off dramatically. Would i place a bet on this? probably not as injuries can happen to anyone and his past wrist injury can easily happen again, not to mention ovechkin's consistentcy is still going to be hard to beat. But again, assuming no major health issues, i say his odds are quite a bit higher than <<1% odds that you give him. Assuming he plays until ~age 38 with no major injuries id give him odds of at least ~25% based on his body of work to date.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

Comparing 1st 8 seasons in the League, Ovechkin is ahead by 23g (with Matthews having 29gms left to close that gap)

A pretty close apples-to-apples of 622 to 618 scheduled games over their respective 1st 8 seasons

Ovechkin's 1st 8 seasons = 371g (622 scheduled games -- losing 34 gms to 2013-14 lockout)
Matthews' 1st 8 seasons* = 348g (618 scheduled games -- losing 12 gms 2019-20 and 26 gms 2020-21 to Covid)
* - 29 gms remaining in 8th season

that really doesnt matter at all. comparing where they are at the same games played

Ovechkin: 334 goals though 534 games
Matthews: 348 goals through 534 games

Ovechkin Stats First 534 Games | StatMuse

Alex Ovechkin has 334 goals, 347 assists and a plus-minus of +94 in 534 games in his first 534 games in his career.

www.statmuse.com

 

[Arthur Morgan]

People still hate Ovechkin, who is the best pure goal scorer of all time, despite the fact he plays for Washington, a team that absolutely no one hated before they had success (thanks to Ovechkin). Stop pretending to be a victim just because you cheer for the leafs

Ovechkin doesnt get as much hate as you think.

Ovechkin is here because of longevity.

Matty needs to play at this level into at least his early 30s to start this conversation

may not have to if his peak results is higher goals scored. Matthews just reached the point where Ovechkin put up 3 seasons finishing in the 30s. depending if he can keep up what hes doing he may not have to score as many goals as Ovechkin has in his 30s

 

[Arthur Morgan]

you're a crackhead if you think Matthew s is on peak ovis level

what would you call what we're seeing right now? Matthews isnt far off from Goal Per Game.
so in your opinion how far is he off to you know, not be considered a crackhead?

 

[Razz]

Ovechkin's durability is legendary especially since he played such a physical game. With that in mind, Matthews doesn't rely on speed or physicality to score, so it's quite possible he will sustain the pace in his 30s. Time will tell...

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Matthews will need multiple seasons of 70+ goals to close the gap. Ovechkin was insanely durable, he missed a handful of games in his first 6 years in the league. The trade-off there was that he also went through two lockouts. Odds are he has the record already were that not the case.

I think I read that he would need to play 1500 or 1600 games to break it based on his goal-per-game and factoring in slowing down in his 30s.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

what would you call what we're seeing right now? Matthews isnt far off from Goal Per Game.
so in your opinion how far is he off to you know, not be considered a crackhead?

65 goals in 2008 was f***ing mental.

But I think his best season was in 2015. 53 goals in a year that the top scoring player had 87 points.

People still hate Ovechkin, who is the best pure goal scorer of all time, despite the fact he plays for Washington, a team that absolutely no one hated before they had success (thanks to Ovechkin). Stop pretending to be a victim just because you cheer for the leafs

I think the hate is due to his political beliefs, not so much his playing ability.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

FWIW Ovi is rooting for Matthews to pass his mark of 65 goals in a season.

Alex Ovechkin is rooting for Auston Matthews to break his personal best mark of 65 goals in a season

Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin holds the 21st-century record for most goals in a single NHL season with 65 in 82 games…

russianmachineneverbreaks.com

I guess Gretzky rooting for him to break the all time record means Ovi will likely be just as gracious in return if someone challenges his records.

 

[Arthur Morgan]

65 goals in 2008 was f***ing mental.

But I think his best season was in 2015. 53 goals in a year that the top scoring player had 87 points.


I think the hate is due to his political beliefs, not so much his playing ability.

65 goals at anytime is insane. before Matthews and then McDavid how long was it again there was 60? funny how now it means less cause scoring is up. well still not many 60 goal scorers

 

[TheSmokingMan]

I think it's pretty reasonable to assume that Ovie will finish around 900 goals at age 40. If Auston Matthews played until the same age of 40, about 14 more seasons, he would need to average 40 goals a season in order to reach 900 goals. Matthews is probably the only current NHLer that has a chance to match what Ovechkin has done.

He's having a historic season that should be celebrated (regardless of what team he plays for) and I hope he continues that performance in the future. The league needs exciting talent like his.

I think duplicating Ovie's consistency is pretty improbable, but you never know. It could be another generation or two before we see a challenge to what Ovie has accomplished in goalscoring.

 

[bobbyking]

what would you call what we're seeing right now? Matthews isnt far off from Goal Per Game.
so in your opinion how far is he off to you know, not be considered a crackhead?

did you watch him play from 2007 to 2010 ? I'm guessing no

 

[wetcoast]

Never been a fan of hypotheticals that never happened.

Are you referring to the first part of adjusted stats or the second part?

 

[snag]

Are you referring to the first part of adjusted stats or the second part?

All of it. Because it is all calculated on some manufactured ratios and criteria. None of it happened so how can we treat it like it did.

 

[wetcoast]

yeah this helps put it into context. it's incredibly unlikely that Matthews maintains his elite goal scoring throughout his 30s like Ovechkin has. Possible, yes, but so far Ovi is the only one to do it in league history. odds are against Matthews doing it.

Look I don't think that Matthews will catch up to Ovechkin in goals even if he has several more years like this, mainly because it's highly unlikely that the Leafs, or any team AM is on later in his career would simply let him become a shooter and just gun for the record but who knows maybe they will.

From 16-17 Ovechkin was second in SOG only behind Mack, who ironically was a distant 6th in goals.

The thing to watch for is how many goals AM gets this year and will it be considered the best goal scoring season adjusted of all time?

Or at least in the modern era.

All of it. Because it is all calculated on some manufactured ratios and criteria. None of it happened so how can we treat it like it did.

So how does one compare goal scoring seasons then where there are vastly different scoring rates?

It's kind of like money and I'd rather have 1000 American dollars today than 1000 Canadian ones and you would as well right?

Even if one doesn't think that adjusted stats are perfect they are a hell of a lot better than simply comparing counting stats in similar eras.

 

[MadLuke]

The thing to watch for is how many goals AM gets this year and will it be considered the best goal scoring season adjusted of all time?

Depend how one goes to adjust, many will 19901991 Brett hull season for the post ww2 era.

86 goals in a 80 games league:
Goals

1.	Brett Hull* • STL	86
2.	Theo Fleury • CGY	51
	Cam Neely* • BOS	51
	Steve Yzerman* • DET	51
5.	Mike Gartner* • NYR	49

If we include the season before and after, closest non Hull seasons

Hull: 86
Yzerman: 62 (in 1990)
Neely: 55 (in 1990)

average team scored 3.45 goal a game that season, it is 3.11 this year, if he get hot could have a chance.

 

[TOGuy14]

that really doesnt matter at all. comparing where they are at the same games played

Ovechkin: 334 goals though 534 games
Matthews: 348 goals through 534 games

Ovechkin Stats First 534 Games | StatMuse

Alex Ovechkin has 334 goals, 347 assists and a plus-minus of +94 in 534 games in his first 534 games in his career.

www.statmuse.com

It matters a lot because longevity is a lot harder to come by than peak.

Lots of guys come out booming in their 20s now, what makes a record breaker is how they sustain through their 30s

 

[snag]

So how does one compare goal scoring seasons then where there are vastly different scoring rates?

It's kind of like money and I'd rather have 1000 American dollars today than 1000 Canadian ones and you would as well right?

Even if one doesn't think that adjusted stats are perfect they are a hell of a lot better than simply comparing counting stats in similar eras.

You can't. All we are doing is bastardizing numbers into something purely hypothetical using some of the variables and not ALL of the variables. Hell....maybe Gretzky scores 120 instead of 92 if he is given a composite instead of his ol Titan twig. Know what I mean? Or what if the butterfly was used by goalies in the 70's/80's.....what then?

And it is really nothing like currency exchange....though I get what you are saying.