Will Matthews match his career high of 40g-29a-69pts this season?

[thewave]

1. Matthews is not on McDavid's level
2. Eichel is not on Matthews' level

Quite frankly, its ridiculous to even infer that its close. More ridiculous than it is for one to infer that Matthews is on McDavid's level.

A player with 2 extra minutes of ice time, 10% more offensive zone starts, and double the power play time has been able to produce a comparable ppg average....great. Oh, and he's -14 (-43 for his career).

Rookie mistake ignoring the team, coach, system and line-mates. Attributing factors count in evaluations DJQ. This is why it's well known that good teams target the best players on poor teams to win trades. Buffalo could make Bergeron look not so great for instance. Since you won't like that hypothetical I will shift it up... Look at ROR defensively -12 on the year since you brought it up. Is ROR poor defensively?

Mmmhmm thought so. Thanks for coming out.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Rookie mistake ignoring the team, coach, system and line-mates. Attributing factors count in evaluations DJQ. This is why it's well known that good teams target the best players on poor teams to win trades. Buffalo could make Bergeron look not so great for instance. Since you won't like that hypothetical I will shift it up... Look at ROR defensively -12 on the year since you brought it up. Is ROR poor defensively?

Mmmhmm thought so. Thanks for coming out.

Its not though. And perhaps he himself is the issue.

Matthews walked onto a team that was last in the league, and managed to produce positive CF%, a positive plus minus, 40 goals, and a playoff birth. Perhaps that should enter into your evaluation.

 

[thewave]

No kidding. 20 games he says? Here's Matthews performance game by game, in points.

3,1,1,1,2,0,2,2,0,2,1,1,0,2,0,1,2,0,0,1,1,1,2,0,0,0,2,1,0,2,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,2,1,0,1,2,1,0,3,0,1,3

Most games he's gone is gone pointless is 4. He's actually been remarkably consistent for us.

His worst 20 game stretch is the bolded, where he put up 14 points.

Look at this stretch in context. No production in 11 of 20 games. Sub 50% offensive contribution.

 

[BlueForever75]

What evidence? I said they are similar. Matthews is a the better goal scorer though. I gave you evidence of why Nylander is better than Kane. I gave you evidence of Kane having a shady past as well. We know that organizations record. I can show you even Matthews stats prior to the NHL were almost identical to Eichel as well. They are just similar players although different in two very different environments. Their entire USHL career suggests the same but you want to believe what you want to believe. That's fine.

Better goal scorer???? The kid can pass the puck as well as seen just yesterday. Sorry bud you are definitely in the minority, and I can say you got many people attention this early morning with you bogus remarks.

Eichel hasn't been able to prove anything in his first 3 seasons in the NHL. Isnt a difference maker and isn't a leader. Buffalo has the parts to succeed, they just don't have a difference maker that strikes fear into the opposition. Matthews has been in the league 2 seasons, brought his team to the playoffs in both. And everyone in the NHL has taken notice.

Patrick Kane (First 2 seasons)

age 19 - goals 21, assists 51, PPG 7, PPA 21, ATOI 18:22
age 20 - goals 25, assists 45, PPG 13, PPA 22, ATOI 18:40

Jack Eichel (First 2 seasons)

age 19 - goals 24, assists 32, PPG 8, PPA 13, ATOI 19:07
age 20 - goals 24, assists 33, PPG 10, PPA 14, ATOI 19:58

Austin Matthews (First 2 seasons)

age 19 - goals 40, assists 29, PPG 8, PPA 13, ATOI 17:22
age 20 - goals 39, assists 31, PPG 4, PPA 10 (projections), ATOI 18:40


So Matthews gets less ice time then Kane and Eichel. Less PP time. Which means the other two should be statistically better correct? Well they are not in the first 2 seasons in the NHL. And on top of it, Matthews is better defensively then both. And Kane was playing with Toews, Sharpe, Hossa etc....

But hang on Matthews is not at the same level as Kane. Only players I would put above Matthews at this time are Crosby, Malkin and McDavid. That's it. But we are talking about a 20 year old that will only continue to develop. And the team around him as well. Which will mean more points and more success.

If we want to say Matthews is as good as he is because of Nylander, then what does it say about Kane and who hes played with? Or Crosby? Or Bergeron? Or McDavid? They all had offensive weapons to play with.... if not more then Matthews.

Sorry you don't have a leg to stand on. Matthews is one of the top 5 centers in the league. Hands down.

 

[thewave]

Its not though. And perhaps he himself is the issue.

Matthews walked onto a team that was last in the league, and managed to produce positive CF%, a positive plus minus, 40 goals, and a playoff birth. Perhaps that should enter into your evaluation.

That team was revamped with a new top tier coach as well. Matthews, Nylander, Marner all injected at the same time. 3 PPG potential players. Honestly they are each of them in the TOP 3 of ANY Draft ever held. You're being intellectually dishonest to the conversation if you omit that.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

That team was revamped with a new top tier coach as well. Matthews, Nylander, Marner all injected at the same time. 3 PPG potential players. Honestly they are each of them in the TOP 3 of ANY Draft ever held. You're being intellectually dishonest to the conversation if you omit that.

I believe the same coach was in place for the last place finish.

 

[thewave]

I believe the same coach was in place for the last place finish.

With 3 potential super-star players on roster? Absolutely not, that team was turned over and new players were brought in. I think 11 or 12? Correct he was the coach already, doesn't matter really though. The point was the transition of roster.

 

[Sypher04]

Look at this stretch in context. No production in 11 of 20 games. Sub 50% offensive contribution.

Kucherov played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
McDavid played a stretch of 14 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
Gaudreau played a stretch of 18 games where had no points in 11 of them.
Stamkos played a stretch of 16 games where he had no points in 9 of them.
Tavares played a stretch of 14 games where had had no points in 8 of them.
Giroux played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 6 of them.

And these are all also top talents in the NHL. It's almost like people have hotter parts of their season production wise than others. Who knew...

Also just for the cherry on top, before you point out most of them aren't as long as 20 games. Matthews is the only one of the group who's missed any time due to injury this season.

 

[mapleleafs34]

Look at this stretch in context. No production in 11 of 20 games. Sub 50% offensive contribution.

In that "worst" 20 game stretch Matthews had 12 points with a -1 rating. (no "production" in 11 of 20 games)

So although he didn't produce at his normal pace he was still only a -1 rating which shows that he doesn't just need to get points in order to impact a game. If his scoring touch isn't there, at least he has a solid defensive game to not allow any goals when he his on the ice.

Jack Eichel's worst 20 game stretch this season he had 12 points with a -7 rating. (no "production" in 10 of 20 games)

So before you say AM34 disappears for 20 game stretches take a look at the player you're comparing him to first. Maybe if Eichel knew how to play defence his team wouldn't be straight garbage.

Give your head a shake.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

With 3 potential super-star players on roster? Absolutely not, that team was turned over and new players were brought in. I think 11 or 12? Correct he was the coach already, doesn't matter really though. The point was the transition of roster.

Check and see how much of the 15/16 Sabres were turned over, which players were added, how they are\were perceived by HFboards, and then let's revisit this whole thing.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Kucherov played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
McDavid played a stretch of 14 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
Gaudreau played a stretch of 18 games where had no points in 11 of them.
Stamkos played a stretch of 16 games where he had no points in 9 of them.
Tavares played a stretch of 14 games where had had no points in 8 of them.
Giroux played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 6 of them.

And these are all also top talents in the NHL. It's almost like people have hotter parts of their season production wise than others. Who knew...

Also just for the cherry on top, before you point out most of them aren't as long as 20 games. Matthews is the only one of the group who's missed any time due to injury this season.

Important to note hat for each of those players, in their cold streaks, they were not paying through undisclosed upper body injuries.

 

[thewave]

Kucherov played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
McDavid played a stretch of 14 games where he had no points in 7 of them.
Gaudreau played a stretch of 18 games where had no points in 11 of them.
Stamkos played a stretch of 16 games where he had no points in 9 of them.
Tavares played a stretch of 14 games where had had no points in 8 of them.
Giroux played a stretch of 10 games where he had no points in 6 of them.

And these are all also top talents in the NHL. It's almost like people have hotter parts of their season production wise than others. Who knew...

Also just for the cherry on top, before you point out most of them aren't as long as 20 games. Matthews is the only one of the group who's missed any time due to injury this season.

It all just goes towards proving he is simply mortal. He is not any better than many of the top Cs in the league and he is not McDavid or Crosby etc. Will he be in that tier? Maybe someday but not today and he should not be paid more than Eichel who was overpaid to begin with. 10m-10.5m should be our teams ceiling on Matthews and that's because of the Eichel deal. 9-10m are more appropriate just as McDavid should have made no more than 11m and Drai about 7.5m. Eichel in at about 8.5m-9m tops with Matthews in at about 9m

Can't happen now because EDM and Buffalo screwed up the pay rate making negotiations difficult. It's almost to the point where UFA players are becoming the bargain players to shoot for and RFA's will be the ones ideally traded away. Very close to that point in time.

 

[thewave]

Check and see how much of the 15/16 Sabres were turned over, which players were added, how they are\were perceived by HFboards, and then let's revisit this whole thing.

Are all sports cars made the same? Each company has different engineers, process, materials etc.

 

[Liminality]

Matthews is super consistent not only in getting goals, points but in effort too. He's been burned a couple times in a couple of games but he's usually very good at being the primary focus of offense and high quality chances for the team.

I'd say Matthews and Eichel are comparable but Matthews is still ahead in Eichel when it comes to the all around game.

Also you're crazy if you think Matthew's cap hit ceiling is 10m.

 

[BlueForever75]

I do believe Matthews next contract annually will be like the one that Eichel or Draisatle signed. That being said, I still believe he is better then both of those players. The only players at his age I would rather have on my team is Crosby and McDavid. I would take Matthews over Kane, Kopitar, Giroux, Bergeron, Malkin, Tavares, Stamkos, Seguin, Eichel, etc....

 

[thewave]

Matthews is super consistent not only in getting goals, points but in effort too. He's been burned a couple times in a couple of games but he's usually very good at being the primary focus of offense and high quality chances for the team.

I'd say Matthews and Eichel are comparable but Matthews is still ahead in Eichel when it comes to the all around game.

Also you're crazy if you think Matthew's cap hit ceiling is 10m.

The point is McDavid, Eichel and Drai. for RFA players were all overpaid period. What is Nylander and Marner worth? 8m each? So for some of you 12m is what Matthews gets. That's like 28million in this new pay structure for the 3 kids. If you cashed out on them all for picks and prospects in the off season you would have the assets and cap to trade for or sign 4x 60pts players and likely have picks and prospects to boot. That's the bigger issue and sooner or later someone is going to do the math and say the best RFA is a traded RFA because UFA are more cost effective in a cap era.

 

[Liminality]

The point is McDavid, Eichel and Drai. for RFA players were all overpaid period. What is Nylander and Marner worth? 8m each? So for some of you 12m is what Matthews gets. That's like 28million in this new pay structure for the 3 kids. If you cashed out on them all for picks and prospects in the off season you would have the assets and cap to trade for or sign 4x 60pts players and likely have picks and prospects to boot. That's the bigger issue and sooner or later someone is going to do the math and say the best RFA is a traded RFA because UFA are more cost effective in a cap era.

I think it's a weird situation because yes it is a jump in price for these RFA's but have you noticed these young players are some of the best to come along in the last decade?

McDavid, Eichel and Matthews are all going to be near the top of the league when it comes to centers and everyone knows it. Matthews will get paid just as those two have. Do I hope it's a bit lower and hope he signs some type of home town discount? Of course, but that's usually not the reality we live in.

Marner and Nylander are probably another discussion altogether.

 

[thewave]

I think it's a weird situation because yes it is a jump in price for these RFA's but have you noticed these young players are some of the best to come along in the last decade?

McDavid, Eichel and Matthews are all going to be near the top of the league when it comes to centers and everyone knows it. Matthews will get paid just as those two have. Do I hope it's a bit lower and hope he signs some type of home town discount? Of course, but that's usually not the reality we live in.

It's an extremely weird situation Lim. The Cap exists we can't ignore it and the rate of pay for these RFA is established. A 28m dollar 3 player line is next to impossible to work with so are we going to trade someone or a couple of them for UFAs including D? Keep the two C? It's really hard to make a call on this situation.

 

[BertCorbeau]

What evidence? I said they are similar. Matthews is a the better goal scorer though. I gave you evidence of why Nylander is better than Kane. I gave you evidence of Kane having a shady past as well. We know that organizations record. I can show you even Matthews stats prior to the NHL were almost identical to Eichel as well. They are just similar players although different in two very different environments. Their entire USHL career suggests the same but you want to believe what you want to believe. That's fine.

Is he better than Kopitar? Bergeron? Crosby? Malkin? McDavid? Please I am dying to hear someone say it, better yet shout out all the C's you think he is better then. I will sit with popcorn waiting to hear how amazing our golden-boy is in the eyes of bias fans.

PS. Are you actually suggesting that a players numbers have nothing to do with linemates?

Don't straw man the argument. I haven't referenced any other players. Your argument is that Matthews' and Eichel are equal because of offensive totals alone. I'm not disagreeing with the fact that they're very similarly offensively rated. But what sets Matthews apart is everything else about his game as evidence by their FO%, giveaways to takeaway ratio, their zone starts, etc. Additionally it's a very fair assertion that Eichel has some immature attitude issues as evidence by his whining to the media and getting his previous coach fired. Finally even his own fanbase admits to him not putting 100% compete into his game every night, he takes shifts off and it drives them nuts.

Both players benefit from playing with good linemates - Kane is a great goal scorer, helping Eichel's assist total and Nylander is a great playmaker helping Matthews' goal total. But there is much more than just offense that determines how good a player is. It's your prerogative to be ignorant to those other factors to support a silly notion that Matthews somehow isn't worth $10 mill per year.

 

[thewave]

Don't straw man the argument. I haven't referenced any other players. Your argument is that Matthews' and Eichel are equal because of offensive totals alone. I'm not disagreeing with the fact that they're very similarly offensively rated. But what sets Matthews apart is everything else about his game as evidence by their FO%, giveaways to takeaway ratio, their zone starts, etc. Additionally it's a very fair assertion that Eichel has some immature attitude issues as evidence by his whining to the media and getting his previous coach fired. Finally even his own fanbase admits to him not putting 100% compete into his game every night, he takes shifts off and it drives them nuts.

Both players benefit from playing with good linemates - Kane is a great goal scorer, helping Eichel's assist total and Nylander is a great playmaker helping Matthews' goal total. But there is much more than just offense that determines how good a player is. It's your prerogative to be ignorant to those other factors to support a silly notion that Matthews somehow isn't worth $10 mill per year.

You are refusing to acknowledge that their team is bad and that good defensive players like ROR even look bad on that team. It's the team and not the player. So you seem like you are just wanting to ram-rod your points through and ignore any other evidence.

Nylander and Kane are two completely different Tiers. I would never in a million years trade Nylander for Kane ever. It's laughable. Nylander in my opinion could be PPG before 2 seasons from now.

 

[Liminality]

It's an extremely weird situation Lim. The Cap exists we can't ignore it and the rate of pay for these RFA is established. A 28m dollar 3 player line is next to impossible to work with so are we going to trade someone or a couple of them for UFAs including D? Keep the two C? It's really hard to make a call on this situation.

I think when we do pay up for these players, they're the main pieces for our top two lines. Be it Matthews-Nylander with Marner on the 2nd line, Matthews-Marner with Nylander centering the 2nd line. It's a really good core to work with for a teams top 6. Figure out how to surround them with pieces after, it's a lot easier getting complimentary pieces then it is to get those top guys to lead your team.

That's another reason why I think Hyman is going to be good for this team longterm. He's a cheap fill in piece that works.

 

[Pi]

It's an extremely weird situation Lim. The Cap exists we can't ignore it and the rate of pay for these RFA is established. A 28m dollar 3 player line is next to impossible to work with so are we going to trade someone or a couple of them for UFAs including D? Keep the two C? It's really hard to make a call on this situation.

28M?

Matthews will get 10-11M. Marner and Nylander have done nothing to deserve 17M (8.5M AAV) between them.

They will both get around 6M.

Stop making numbers up.

 

[thewave]

28M?

Matthews will get 10-11M. Marner and Nylander have done nothing to deserve 17M (8.5M AAV) amongst them.

They will both get around 6M.

Stop making numbers up.

I am not making anything up, EDM and Buffalo set an aprox price on RFA of 130k a point on their best year. Do the math on it, that's pretty much the price. 65pts x 130k = 8.5million or if you go with Drais. it works out to like 110k = 7.1 million and I have no doubt Nylander can hit 70pts at this rate.

Even on the low ends.. 11 7.5 7.5 = 26 million

 

[Pi]

I am not making anything up, EDM and Buffalo set an aprox price on RFA of 130k a point on their best year. Do the math on it, that's pretty much the price. 65pts x 130k = 8.5million or if you go with Drais. it works out to like 110k = 7.1 million and I have no doubt Nylander can hit 70pts at this rate.

Even on the low ends.. 11 7.5 7.5 = 26 million

You can't just pick and choose your comparable.

Ehlers and Pastrnak are far more comparable to Nylander's point totals and are more recent contracts. Marner is tricky to predict because he's not going to sign a contract this year, he'll wait till after next year because 5.5-6M is something he can get today but if he plays better next year he can get closer to 7.

 

[Sypher04]

I am not making anything up, EDM and Buffalo set an aprox price on RFA of 130k a point on their best year. Do the math on it, that's pretty much the price. 65pts x 130k = 8.5million or if you go with Drais. it works out to like 110k = 7.1 million and I have no doubt Nylander can hit 70pts at this rate.

Even on the low ends.. 11 7.5 7.5 = 26 million

The Marner/Nylander comparable is Ehlers @ 6m for 7 years.

McDavid signed his contract Jul 5 2017.
Drai signed his contract Aug 16 2017.
Ehlers signed his contract Oct 4 2017.

Checkmate.