Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[Pookie]

That's cute chart, random and largely irrelevant.

In the spirit of that, here's a puppy:

 

[Menzinger]

That's cute chart, random and largely irrelevant.

In the spirit of that, here's a puppy:

Though the Leafs stats analysis team may disagree - especially when asked by management to give their input on a potential Stamkos signing

 

[exporta]

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this but the injury is not the only thing that factors into those statistical down swings.

Stamkos broke his leg in 2014 (well technically Nov. 2013) and was out I believe for 8(?) weeks. Stamkos was trying to heal as quickly as possible to join Team Canada in time for the Sochi Olympics. Well, as we know he was not able to heal in time and for a while everyone thought that Martin St Louis was a shoe-in to be Stammer's replacement (reigning Art Ross winner, Yzerman was the director, etc.). Then as well all know St Louis was upset that Yzerman chose to go with someone else (I think it was Giroux?) and asked for a trade.

Now, I dont know when Stamkos came back (obviously it was at least mid-february) and how close that was to the trading of St Louis but when you consider that Stamkos lost one of the league's premier playmakers anybody's numbers would take a hit.

It is not necessarily just the injury that affected his numbers but the loss of MSL.

Now, people would use that as the argument of "If Stamkos needs such a great playmaker, why would he be worth $__ mil?" But, its not just MSL, its also who MSL was replaced by.

Since MSL left the majority of Stamkos' games he has played with Callahan and Killorn. I like Ryan Callahan but he is a dud offensively in terms of creativity and playmaking ability. Same with Killorn I just don't see how Killorn is on the top 6 of a playoff caliber team. Johnson, Palat, and Kucherov have the luxury of playing with each other but Stamkos has to carry his line offensively because both of his line mates are simply big body guys who need to go to the front of the net to be effective.

When Stamkos is given the opportunity to play with other skilled players he does well, look at what he has done since Namestnikov was put on his line about 2 weeks ago. Skilled players can open space for you as much as physical players can.

St. Louis was Stamkos' replacement.
http://www.thestar.com/sports/sochi...t_louis_on_team_canada_in_sochi_olympics.html

That being said the two of them had great chemistry. I thought they would eventually put Drouin in that role. If we get Stamkos a JVR-Stamkos-Marner line would be unreal, or something along those lines.

 

[91Kadri91*]

I have Pookie on my ignore list, but assuming that little puppy picture was directed at my post indicating increased pass rates, and decreased shot rates (relative), I'll just aptly indicate (I shouldn't have to, but I guess there's a reason why I have him on ignore) that the chart merely offers a potential reason for Stamkos' decreased G/60. He's currently 86th in ES G/60; last season Stamkos ranked 13th.

Stamkos' greatest asset is his shot; he should be shooting.

 

[lindroshomer]

Stamkos' greatest asset is his shot; he should be shooting.

I think this gives him some longevity another player wouldn't have. Brett Hull comes to mind, Ray Allen, Happy Gilmore, it's something that he will still have near the end of his contract with the Leafs. That Jonas Siegel nerd from Leafs Lunch seems to think signing Stamkos will result in a Phaneuf/Kessell level disaster.

I don't, but at the same time there are questions and for 10 million dollars year I don't think it's worth it. It's a very short term signing, even if Stamkos changes his game and is willing to be a 3rd line checking center playing a 200 foot game in his 30's it's not worth the money on the cap.

It would be rejuvenating for the Maple Leaf fans, they haven't had a true superstar since Mats Sundin, you never knew if he was going to go top shelf, bottom shelf, glove side, stick side.

I don't think Lou Lamoriello/Shanahan and Hunter are the kind of guys wouldn't look long term. I would be confident that if they do sign him, they've scouted him and have a plan short term and long term for him and the team.

 

[Pookie]

Though the Leafs stats analysis team may disagree - especially when asked by management to give their input on a potential Stamkos signing

Sure they might but the ultimate deciding factor should be the medical team's diagnosis of his health and "peak performance"... taking a page from top sports organizations around the world.

If all you are looking at are these simplistic descriptions of what happens in a game, that's risky.

Take that cute pass graph. Are we saying that if he passes less, he will produce more? Quick. Someone get Steve Y on the phone. The secret was found on the Internet.

Maybe he's passing more because he can't shoot (ie defended well and can't beat a check). Or has lost confidence in his shot. Or doesn't care.

Who knows. But a detailed evaluation that measures his skill and health vs a baseline for performance will tell us more than we can get from a blog.

That's assuming of course we have invested in that.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I think this gives him some longevity another player wouldn't have. Brett Hull comes to mind, Ray Allen, Happy Gilmore, it's something that he will still have near the end of his contract with the Leafs. That Jonas Siegel nerd from Leafs Lunch seems to think signing Stamkos will result in a Phaneuf/Kessell level disaster.

I don't, but at the same time there are questions and for 10 million dollars year I don't think it's worth it. It's a very short term signing, even if Stamkos changes his game and is willing to be a 3rd line checking center playing a 200 foot game in his 30's it's not worth the money on the cap.

It would be rejuvenating for the Maple Leaf fans, they haven't had a true superstar since Mats Sundin, you never knew if he was going to go top shelf, bottom shelf, glove side, stick side.

I don't think Lou Lamoriello/Shanahan and Hunter are the kind of guys wouldn't look long term. I would be confident that if they do sign him, they've scouted him and have a plan short term and long term for him and the team.

I was just thinking of Brett Hull the other day. Some people say Stamkos point totals are down because no more St. Louis. OK then, if that's the case, there's no guarantee they will ever be what they once were for the simple reason that Stamkos may never develop that kind of chemistry again with anyone be it Marner, Nylander or any player on any team (in the same way that Hull and Oates were at their best when they were together).

 

[lindroshomer]

I was just thinking of Brett Hull the other day. Some people say Stamkos point totals are down because no more St. Louis. OK then, if that's the case, there's no guarantee they will ever be what they once were for the simple reason that Stamkos may never develop that kind of chemistry again with anyone be it Marner, Nylander or any player on any team (in the same way that Hull and Oates were at their best when they were together).

Brett Hull played with a few HOFers, and that helps, but he also played with guys who were willing to, and happy to pass it to him, some really special players who cared just about winning.

 

[Gabriel426]

What if Stamkos and Marner or Willie or Tima even Kadri are better than Stamkos and St. Louis. That could happen too. Heck if Phil playing with Bozak can get Phil 35plus goals, maybe Stamkos will net 50 with Bozak. You can't just assume Stamkos can't find anyone to play with and he will just be a 40goals scorer and not 50 or more goals.

 

[Gary Nylund]

What if Stamkos and Marner or Willie or Tima even Kadri are better than Stamkos and St. Louis. That could happen too. Heck if Phil playing with Bozak can get Phil 35plus goals, maybe Stamkos will net 50 with Bozak. You can't just assume Stamkos can't find anyone to play with and he will just be a 40goals scorer and not 50 or more goals.

Well if Stamkos does score a bunch of goals for us I hope it's not at the expense of defence to the tune of worse than -100 for his line.

I'm not assuming anything and I never said Stamkos won't ever find anyone to play with. Or can you show me where I said that? Ironically enough (soncidering your post), what I am saying, is that people shouldn't assume Stamkos will ever find the type of chemistry with anyone that he had with St. Louis. It could happen, but it would be foolish to assume it will happen.

 

[Le Cobra]

If Stamkos becomes the center of our own version of the Russian 5, we could have something miles away greater than what he had at Tampa and hopefully even greater than the original R5.

 

[Swervin81]

If Stamkos becomes the center of our own version of the Russian 5, we could have something miles away greater than what he had at Tampa and hopefully even greater than the original R5.

The Russian 5 would be the greatest 5 man unit in the NHL today, and they weren't even the best 5 man unit on their own team

I think that's a bit too big of an expectation. If you have even half of what the Russian 5 did, you have something terrific.

But, real talk, it's impossible to have that kinda chemistry today. That chemistry the Russian 5 had was formed by practicing and playing with each other day in and day out for years and years with each other in Russia since there was the pesky old iron curtain was in the way.

 

[deprw]

I think he gets close to Kopitor numbers but if he wants to play in Toronto he might need to take a bit of a haircut. I have said this before and I will say it again if he comes to play in the Mecca of hockey his agent will be flooded with so many endorsement deals above and beyond his current deals that it will make up for any lack of yearly average.

What should matter most is that if he succeeds in Toronto he'll have those opportunities, during and after his career. Think about winning the Stanley Cup in Toronto and opportunities after that. If he just wants to cash out we should walk away. If we want him he will get one of those famous Shanahan presentations and to this point he has good track record.

 

[Menzinger]

Sure they might but the ultimate deciding factor should be the medical team's diagnosis of his health and "peak performance"... taking a page from top sports organizations around the world.

If all you are looking at are these simplistic descriptions of what happens in a game, that's risky.

Take that cute pass graph. Are we saying that if he passes less, he will produce more? Quick. Someone get Steve Y on the phone. The secret was found on the Internet.

Maybe he's passing more because he can't shoot (ie defended well and can't beat a check). Or has lost confidence in his shot. Or doesn't care.

Who knows. But a detailed evaluation that measures his skill and health vs a baseline for performance will tell us more than we can get from a blog.

That's assuming of course we have invested in that.

It's not an either-or situation. You can look at multiple metrics, nobody is suggesting you need to only look at one thing (or stat) to make a decision, in fact you shouldn't.

That graph in particular as 91Kadri91 mentioned is possible explanation for his decreased goals/60.

 

[Gabriel426]

Well if Stamkos does score a bunch of goals for us I hope it's not at the expense of defence to the tune of worse than -100 for his line.

I'm not assuming anything and I never said Stamkos won't ever find anyone to play with. Or can you show me where I said that? Ironically enough (soncidering your post), what I am saying, is that people shouldn't assume Stamkos will ever find the type of chemistry with anyone that he had with St. Louis. It could happen, but it would be foolish to assume it will happen.

I don't think people are assuming anything, nothing is set in stone. Just take a look at Phil, I doubt anyone would think Phil is scoring at his current rate. They are merely suggesting Stamkos would bounce back based on playing with Willie, or Marner, under a coach that trusts him more than Cooper..... And even if he doesn't score 50plus anymore, as long as he is one of the top goals scorer in the league, that's still better than not having one of the top scorer in the league.

While I know you are one fan that do support Stamkos coming at the right price 9-10mil from this thread and the other one, but sometime your argument is really negative and uncalled for. Like this last comment, why do u have to mention hope he scores without being -100.

 

[Gabriel426]

It's not an either-or situation. You can look at multiple metrics, nobody is suggesting you need to only look at one thing (or stat) to make a decision, in fact you should t.

That graph in particular as 91Kadri91 mentioned is possible explanation for his decreased goals/60.

Just making a general comment, but don't you think we are reading way too much into advance stats these days.

It won't be long, if it hadn't happen already that someone would come up with players performance chats based on being Single, Married, Going steady, having kids, having pets, or home team weather during game day.....and compare how each players perform.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I don't think people are assuming anything, nothing is set in stone. Just take a look at Phil, I doubt anyone would think Phil is scoring at his current rate. They are merely suggesting Stamkos would bounce back based on playing with Willie, or Marner, under a coach that trusts him more than Cooper..... And even if he doesn't score 50plus anymore, as long as he is one of the top goals scorer in the league, that's still better than not having one of the top scorer in the league.

While I know you are one fan that do support Stamkos coming at the right price 9-10mil from this thread and the other one, but sometime your argument is really negative and uncalled for. Like this last comment, why do u have to mention hope he scores without being -100.

I was only responding to you saying that Phil scored 35 with Bozak, maybe Stammer can score 50 ... the last season Bozak and Kessel were together, everyone that line was worse than -30 IIRC so ... we can wax nostalgic about all the offence Phil produced when he was here but let's look at the entire picture is all I'm saying.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Elliot Friedman said Tampa's offer was 8.5. They might come up to 9 or 9.5. Toronto could probably go to 10.5 per.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

So Tampa's latest offer is 8.5AAV, per Friedman.

Assuming an 8 year deal, that's 68M total.

I don't think it's a slam dunk that he gets a max year contract, especially if he wants max AAV.

I would be okay with a 5 year deal for 55M to 58M, with the understanding that if he stays longer, it will be for significantly less. Pay him now while we have the cap space, and then get a team-friendlier contract for when other guys are costing more.

 

[Snow Dog]

Tampa's offer 8.5 million.won't get it done.

 

[mikebel111*]

I doubt Stamkos signs for 8.5 million.

 

[Crosscrease14]

You have to think he's looking at Kopitar's deal and saying I'm worth that. 8.5 isn't close.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

I doubt Stamkos signs for 8.5 million.

He turned it down, so that's a given. But it does give at least some context as to what his price range might be - $10Mx7 on the open market - sure. But not 12M or 13M, maybe not even 11M.

 

[Crosscrease14]

Leads should offer 1 year Max dollars while we have cap space.
Sign an extension the next day for 7 years at 9.5 =80.5/8

 

[GBLeaf]

If true, I love that they offered him 8.5. They lower they go, the lower we have a shot at getting him.

If we can tie him up for 10 or less I'm happy.