Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[JoeyBeans]

What did Babcock say last night? I didn't hear it.

He also said with JVR out we have no talented scorers. followed by "We have no Ovechkin".

 

[indigobuffalo]

LOL. I don't think you understand what a strawman argument is. Or maybe you misread my post (or the post I was responding to).

A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent's argument, while actually refuting an argument which was not advanced by that opponent.

What you did is create an argument wherein you were discussing how a $14M AAV contract for Stamkos would be very difficult to result as a good investment.

So your argument presented and refuted something your opponent never actually said, which was a clear exaggeration of what he was saying, purely to discredit his position without having to actually respond to his argument in a critical way.

Seems like textbook Straw man to me...

But, I guess since no matter what my response was to what you said, I'm merely misinterpreting what you originally said, maybe you could actually not waste our time?

 

[Gary Nylund]

The whole St Louis timeline is a definite possibility for the lack of production as well. Losing a premier playmaking linemate and former art ross winner is most certainly a blow to any players offence, let alone a noted phenom scorer.

So that could indicate the injury isnt the primary reason for the dip in production, will we ever know for certain? No. He could get a permier playmaking player to play with next season, score 65 and get 100 points and many people would claim it was the teammates help, many would say hes finally back to his pre injury form. **** show either way.

I think regardless of how the injury is effecting his play, he will become a top 10 player in the league and a top 5 scorer on a seasonly basis when its all said and done.
Will this be worth more than toews/kane/kopitar etc. Probably yes, not because hes better than them but because other than kopitar, he signed in different seasons under different circumstances.

Kopitar never made it to UFA, its not hard to picture him squeezing an extra million or two out of a team who truly wants his services. Him not being on the market only ups Stamkos' value to the other teams looking for a premier forward.

Toews and Kane signed in an entirely different season, different cap structure and without offers from other teams. If they had been UFA i think there would have been an offer on the table for each of them that Chicago would either have to pass on due to their tight cap structure, or would have to bite the bullet and move other assets in order for them to fit them in.

There are a lot of factors that come up which makes it hard to compare a potential UFA stamkos' contract with his direct peers who signed under completely different circumstances. Whos the next 25-27 year old elite player who will become a UFA? I dont know, but until then Stamkos is the cream of the crop and is likely the best player to hit UFA since Suter.

1) We don't know for certain, I agree with you there. Let me ask you this - do you honestly believe that his injury is a non-issue? It seems naive to me to discard the injury as a possible factor but maybe that's just me.

2) Top 10 player and top5 scorer on a "seasonly" basis - I doubt it but I admire your optimism.

What you did is create an argument wherein you were discussing how a $14M AAV contract for Stamkos would be very difficult to result as a good investment.

So your argument presented and refuted something your opponent never actually said, which was a clear exaggeration of what he was saying, purely to discredit his position without having to actually respond to his argument in a critical way.

Seems like textbook Straw man to me...

But, I guess since no matter what my response was to what you said, I'm merely misinterpreting what you originally said, maybe you could actually not waste our time?

I was responding to a post that insisted Stamkos would be worth "the money" without naming a figure. A number of people have stated they'd be willing to "back up the truck" and pay him whatever, even up to 14m per year. Have you not seen those posts?

When someone insists he will be worth whatever he is paid without setting an upper limit on the amount, 14m is absolutely in play.

 

[gabeliscious]

He also said with JVR out we have no talented scorers. followed by "We have no Ovechkin".

it was along the lines of without an ovechkin we need to score by commitee.

 

[thewave]

14m has not even been suggested. I don't think even the Stamkos camp would value themselves 4m higher than the next comparable.

 

[Bomber0104]

You get the most real production out of big-money free agents in the first few years of the contract's lifespan.

Do people realize the Leafs are in no way positioned to compete for ANYTHING during this time-period?

Why would you throw good money at bad?

 

[Namikaze Minato]

1) We don't know for certain, I agree with you there. Let me ask you this - do you honestly believe that his injury is a non-issue? It seems naive to me to discard the injury as a possible factor but maybe that's just me.

2) Top 10 player and top5 scorer on a "seasonly" basis - I doubt it but I admire your optimism.

firstly.... er seasonal haha, woops.

And do i think its a non factor? No, i imagine it contributes. I dont think its as big a factor on his physical condition, as he seems to be able to skate as fast as ever, despite his leg having been broken.

Where i think it is a larger factor for him is mentally. He seems a little bit more shy with his drive to the net/ into the hard areas than he used to be, which could definitely limit some of his offensive potential for the garbage.

Mental issues can be cleared though, legs will heal and its easily a risk i see worth taking. 25 year olds with his upside do not come along every year, 5 years or even decade on the UFA market.

 

[Stephen]

You get the most real production out of big-money free agents in the first few years of the contract's lifespan.

Do people realize the Leafs are in no way positioned to compete for ANYTHING during this time-period?

Why would you throw good money at bad?

Why would a 29th place team not be using all resources available to it to get better any way they possibly can in as short a time as possible? Yeah, I understand the patience aspect, but that doesn't mean indulge in being terrible for the next decade either.

 

[Pucker77]

I'm glad you agree he's not 100% concern free. Listen, I hope he makes it all the way back too regardless if he comes to Toronto or not but I just don't understand people who talk as if the injury was 100% not an issue.

This has done before but maybe it's time to do it again.

Steve Stamkos PPG by season beginning with his first year in the league:

0.58
1.16
1.11
1.18
1.19

1.35 (partial season, 23 points 17 games before getting injured)

Injury

0.85 (partial season, 17 points in 20 games after coming back later in the season)

0.88
0.78 (current season, incomplete)

Ok maybe it's the coaching or some other reason but his PPG took a huge dip right after the injury, if the injury had nothing to do with it, that's one hell of a co-incidence. Me personally, I'm not sold. Talk about Ovechkin all you want but he never sufered a major injury like Stamkos and had his production plummet from that instant. How anyone can look at those numbers and say the injury is not an issue is beyond me.

Yes he's still a very good hockey player but I doubt he will ever get back to where he once was. He used to be a top 3-5 player in the NHL but he's just not at that level any more.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned this but the injury is not the only thing that factors into those statistical down swings.

Stamkos broke his leg in 2014 (well technically Nov. 2013) and was out I believe for 8(?) weeks. Stamkos was trying to heal as quickly as possible to join Team Canada in time for the Sochi Olympics. Well, as we know he was not able to heal in time and for a while everyone thought that Martin St Louis was a shoe-in to be Stammer's replacement (reigning Art Ross winner, Yzerman was the director, etc.). Then as well all know St Louis was upset that Yzerman chose to go with someone else (I think it was Giroux?) and asked for a trade.

Now, I dont know when Stamkos came back (obviously it was at least mid-february) and how close that was to the trading of St Louis but when you consider that Stamkos lost one of the league's premier playmakers anybody's numbers would take a hit.

It is not necessarily just the injury that affected his numbers but the loss of MSL.

Now, people would use that as the argument of "If Stamkos needs such a great playmaker, why would he be worth $__ mil?" But, its not just MSL, its also who MSL was replaced by.

Since MSL left the majority of Stamkos' games he has played with Callahan and Killorn. I like Ryan Callahan but he is a dud offensively in terms of creativity and playmaking ability. Same with Killorn I just don't see how Killorn is on the top 6 of a playoff caliber team. Johnson, Palat, and Kucherov have the luxury of playing with each other but Stamkos has to carry his line offensively because both of his line mates are simply big body guys who need to go to the front of the net to be effective.

When Stamkos is given the opportunity to play with other skilled players he does well, look at what he has done since Namestnikov was put on his line about 2 weeks ago. Skilled players can open space for you as much as physical players can.

 

[Stephen]

Also, you have to factor in the fact that St. Louis' decline once going to New York was pretty quick too. He went from winning the Art Ross in 2013 edging out Stamkos by 3 points to basically being well below a point a game in 2014 with the Rangers and 2015, so there was a ton of chemistry lost when those two were broken up.

Finally, a down year or two for a 25-26 year old doesn't mean decline. A 31 year old Teemu Selanne looked extremely washed up after being separated from Kariya, but was back to his high scoring ways at 36 back in Anaheim in the right environment.

 

[Stephen]

This is a month after his return from a broken leg



This is about seven months after.



It really doesn't look like he's hobbled up or slowed down, or his explosiveness has suffered too much.

 

[exporta]

If Stamkos is set on being a Leaf, you offer up to $9m/7 yrs. If he is set to make the most (on his contract not endorsements) you let him go where he wants. It's as simple as that, we don't need to over pay.

We are not in a position to break the bank on a player that wants to be here and we could certainly use/market. If he wants to be here, that is more than a fair deal. If he gets too greedy, let him take what he thinks he's worth.

Not much of a debate to be had.

 

[Purity*]

If Stamkos is set on being a Leaf, you offer up to $9m/7 yrs. If he is set to make the most (on his contract not endorsements) you let him go where he wants. It's as simple as that, we don't need to over pay.

We are not in a position to break the bank on a player that wants to be here and we could certainly use/market. If he wants to be here, that is more than a fair deal. If he gets too greedy, let him take what he thinks he's worth.

Not much of a debate to be had.

I can definitely get on board with Stamkos at 9M$ but I highly doubt he signs that low.

 

[Gabriel426]

So I guess, if Stamkos signs for 10, some of you will be bringing torches and pitchforks if he doesn't score a hat trick on his debut.
Like I said and most would agree, most here think 9-9.5mil is fair value for Stamkos, if he signs for 10-11, it is at most a diff of 2mil. Have a feeling the cap will increase that amount in 2 yrs. it is no big deal.

 

[91Kadri91*]

 

[Eternal Leaf]

If Stamkos is set on being a Leaf, you offer up to $9m/7 yrs. If he is set to make the most (on his contract not endorsements) you let him go where he wants. It's as simple as that, we don't need to over pay.

We are not in a position to break the bank on a player that wants to be here and we could certainly use/market. If he wants to be here, that is more than a fair deal. If he gets too greedy, let him take what he thinks he's worth.

Not much of a debate to be had.

No way is he taking less than Kopitar especially when it is at 7 years.

He's definitely going to get 10 or 10.5 minimum.

In the end, who defines 'over pay'? For some even 11 x 7 is fine. Let's see what Lou thinks.

 

[jrgtml67]

easy answer...any team with cap room will be in on him if he goes UFA he is a franchise player..TPA is screwed thid yr and next with big names in final yr so if they sign stammer..bye bye hedman for starters..hmm hedman and reilly

 

[jrgtml67]

He also said with JVR out we have no talented scorers. followed by "We have no Ovechkin".

ya and he clarified that he meant no game breaker...no mystery there...kadri should be scoring more that may make him trade bait..other than his lack of scoring this is by far his best yr

 

[Funk21]

No way is he taking less than Kopitar especially when it is at 7 years.

He's definitely going to get 10 or 10.5 minimum.

In the end, who defines 'over pay'? For some even 11 x 7 is fine. Let's see what Lou thinks.

I don't believe Stamkos is gonna sign in Toronto for peanuts but the reality is that he certainly is not performing a well as he did pre leg break. Now whether that is the injury or the lack of having St.Louis on his wing we will never truly know.

Kopitor has helped LA win two SC, and i believe is a better rounded player. Those Stanely Cups mean something. I think he gets close to Kopitor numbers but if he wants to play in Toronto he might need to take a bit of a haircut. I have said this before and I will say it again if he comes to play in the Mecca of hockey his agent will be flooded with so many endorsement deals above and beyond his current deals that it will make up for any lack of yearly average.

I think where we end up at the 2016 draft will also determine how hard we make a push for him.

 

[Confucius]

You get the most real production out of big-money free agents in the first few years of the contract's lifespan.

The way I looked at contracts, players got rewarded for past performance, so even if their worth decreased after signing a new deal the team more than likely got great value in the proceeding years.

Nowadays players move much more frequently and it seems their new teams are rewarding the players for playing well for their past teams, and in some cases for potential. Risky situation when a team signs on a new player.

 

[thewave]

ya and he clarified that he meant no game breaker...no mystery there...kadri should be scoring more that may make him trade bait..other than his lack of scoring this is by far his best yr

Kadri is a good 2-3 C and if we get him for 4.5m we'll have done well. He can play up and down the lineup which is nice to have but he can't snipe and break a game.

Stamkos is sorely needed.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

From the perspective of a 7 year UFA contract, (Kopitar, Toews & Kane all have 8 year contracts), the $11 m barrier has already been broken.

Viewed from the perspective of 7-year contracts, Kopiitar's contract would be $11.4 m/year and Kane & Toews are $12.1 m/year.

Stamkos' agent would be viewing a $10 m X 7 year as a discount, leaving money on the table and not doing his job getting the best deal for his client - and himself.

 

[Steve]

I said this in the previous thread but the Leafs will 100% persue Stamkos. Weather or not they get a deal done will obviously be the big question. If the Leafs can get another high end impact player (or 2) through the draft and then add Stamkos the Leafs will be on the upswing IMO - not saying it's the best idea but it immediately makes a big difference in the team moving forward. On the other hand, if he's looking for $11M (as some suggest) and with term, I wouldn't do it.

IMO, as of right now there is a 10% chance he signs with Toronto next season. I think he will stay in Tampa. If he goes to free agency, I think it would be closer to 40% that he signs in Toronto.

 

[Menzinger]

In terms of production, I think he'll be a 70-80 point guy for most of his contract rather than the 80+ points he's put up in the past. With maybe him dipping down to 60-70 points per year over the last couple years of his new deal.

Which is likely worth closer to an 8-9 million per year deal than a 10+ . His agen will be seeking in a UFA deal. That said, with him being over paid 1-3 million, his new contract would hardly be a disaster.

As mentioned, Hawks went to the finals with Bickle on the books - Mike Richards was the Kings 4th line centre being paid 5+ million on their last cup run.

Stamkos' potential new contract is manageable. I just won't be too disappointed if he ends up signing elsewhere - which is likely to happen. The guy made it to the cup finals last year, he'll want to spend his prime likely with a team closer to contention.

 

[Gary Nylund]

firstly.... er seasonal haha, woops.

And do i think its a non factor? No, i imagine it contributes. I dont think its as big a factor on his physical condition, as he seems to be able to skate as fast as ever, despite his leg having been broken.

Where i think it is a larger factor for him is mentally. He seems a little bit more shy with his drive to the net/ into the hard areas than he used to be, which could definitely limit some of his offensive potential for the garbage.

Mental issues can be cleared though, legs will heal and its easily a risk i see worth taking. 25 year olds with his upside do not come along every year, 5 years or even decade on the UFA market.

Mental issues, physical issues, coaching, no St. Louis, who the hell knows. If it is mental though, it's no less real a problem. Take Bernier as an example, many people say his problem is between his ears but it's still a problem. It's possible I suppose that his injury has nothing to do with his drop in production but I don't see how anyone can be sure of that.

And hey I hope you're right but I don't see Stamkos returning to top 5 scorer status on a "seasonal" basis, I just don't. I'm not even sure he's a strong favorite to finish top 5 again ever, maybe 50/50, maybe a bit better, I just don't know. It's hard to calculate probability on something like this but on a "seasonal basis" ... depending on how yo define that, let's say that means Stamkos finishing top 5 3 times in a span of 5 years before then end of his career, I'd say the odds are stacked huge against that.

Stamkos' days as a perennial top 5 scorer are likely over IMO. I'd be thrilled is I was wrong that's what it looks like to me.

I don't believe Stamkos is gonna sign in Toronto for peanuts but the reality is that he certainly is not performing a well as he did pre leg break. Now whether that is the injury or the lack of having St.Louis on his wing we will never truly know.

Kopitor has helped LA win two SC, and i believe is a better rounded player. Those Stanely Cups mean something. I think he gets close to Kopitor numbers but if he wants to play in Toronto he might need to take a bit of a haircut. I have said this before and I will say it again if he comes to play in the Mecca of hockey his agent will be flooded with so many endorsement deals above and beyond his current deals that it will make up for any lack of yearly average.

I think where we end up at the 2016 draft will also determine how hard we make a push for him.

Thank you. That's all I'm saying - we don't know and we can't know for sure. When people say the injury isn't an issue they're just not being objective IMO. Have we heard Stamkos, doctors or for that matter anyone in a position to have an informed opinion come out and say the injury is not an issue going forward? I haven't heard any such thing and I'd think if it wasn't an issue, someone would have said so by now.

14m has not even been suggested. I don't think even the Stamkos camp would value themselves 4m higher than the next comparable.

14m has absolutely been suggested by a number of posters on this board.