Confirmed with Link: Wild re-sign Granlund, 3 years, $17.25 million (5.75M AAV)

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Wabit

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May 23, 2016
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Well, Dumba could have.But the thing is that if Granny scores like last year then even Dumba wont be even close to Grannys value to this team.And im not sure why would his scoring come crashing down next year because hes always been getting points at this rate when playing on wing, in national team and when he was still in finland.He was forced to play center and its pretty safe to say that hes not a center.That also was the reason why he didnt score so much, now that he is a winger I think that points will keep on coming and first line winger is more valuable than top 4 d.

I think he was lucky shooting, and was the 3rd wheel on the Koivu line. Koivu and Zucker made the line so good as a counter attack line. Before Zucker was added to the line around the 13th? game of the season Granlund/Koivu/whoever wasn't a very good line. Through 12 games Granny was 2g/4a (6p in 12 games) and +1. With Zucker on the line, Granny went 24g/39a (63p in 69 games) and +22.

I think he's a 50-55p (~15g/~35a) winger that just had a year where everything went right for him. He was an 8% shooter (over a 3 year span) that jumped up ~6.7% from that mark in one season. I could see a 2% bump do to his move to wing, but not a 6.7% jump. 4 SHP (3g/1a) and 4 ENG will be hard to duplicate. He'll always get assists, he has great hands. But he hasn't really been a goal scorer since his U-18 days.

5v5 last year Granlund, Nino, Pommer, Zucker (in some order):
Player A: 12g, 25a, 15 1stA, 37p, 7.69 s%, 0.78 G/60, 1.63 A/60, 0.98 1stA/60, 2.41 P/60, 82.2% IPP. Pommer
Player B: 11g, 24a, 19 1stA, 35p, 8.21 s%, 0.57 G/60, 1.25 A/60, 0.99 1stA/60, 1.82 P/60, 63.6% IPP. Granny
Player C: 16g, 25a, 19 1stA, 41p, 10.96 s%, 0.92 G/60, 1.44 A/60, 1.09 1stA/60, 2.36 P/60, 74.6% IPP. Nino
Player D: 19g, 25a, 15 1stA. 44p, 12.03 s%, 1.03 G/60, 1.36 A/60, 0.81 1stA/60, 2.39 P/60, 67.7% IPP Zucker
**highlight after IPP for who is who. (IPP = Individual Points Percentage = The % of goals scored while player was on ice that the player had a point on).

Nothing in Granlund's stat line suggests that he'll continue to be a ~70p winger. He has the lowest IPP, goals, assists points, G/60, A/60, and P/60. Some of that comes down to useage, but Zucker should have similar numbers considering they were on ice together most of the time 5v5. Granny had the most ToI 5v5 so it will lower his /60 stats. But his total G, A, P were the already the lowest, so it doesn't really matter.
 

jackouu

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Yay! I was wishing for a longer term as I fear this will become rather expensive for Wild later. Now sign Foligno cheap and get Cullen!
 

Bruce Granville

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I guess Granny wanted 50M with a long term.
But the Wild are still in cap trouble, so he takes a shorter term, but CF already agreed with him on the next deal in 3 years. 7x7M would be my guess.

If CF tries to screw him, Granny's gone.
But as far as we know, CF has kept his promises. Otherwise Backs would not have gotten his last contract.
Knowing this, Granny gave him a discount.
 

Nharris31

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Aug 9, 2013
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I think he was lucky shooting, and was the 3rd wheel on the Koivu line. Koivu and Zucker made the line so good as a counter attack line. Before Zucker was added to the line around the 13th? game of the season Granlund/Koivu/whoever wasn't a very good line. Through 12 games Granny was 2g/4a (6p in 12 games) and +1. With Zucker on the line, Granny went 24g/39a (63p in 69 games) and +22.

I think he's a 50-55p (~15g/~35a) winger that just had a year where everything went right for him. He was an 8% shooter (over a 3 year span) that jumped up ~6.7% from that mark in one season. I could see a 2% bump do to his move to wing, but not a 6.7% jump. 4 SHP (3g/1a) and 4 ENG will be hard to duplicate. He'll always get assists, he has great hands. But he hasn't really been a goal scorer since his U-18 days.

5v5 last year Granlund, Nino, Pommer, Zucker (in some order):
Player A: 12g, 25a, 15 1stA, 37p, 7.69 s%, 0.78 G/60, 1.63 A/60, 0.98 1stA/60, 2.41 P/60, 82.2% IPP. Pommer
Player B: 11g, 24a, 19 1stA, 35p, 8.21 s%, 0.57 G/60, 1.25 A/60, 0.99 1stA/60, 1.82 P/60, 63.6% IPP. Granny
Player C: 16g, 25a, 19 1stA, 41p, 10.96 s%, 0.92 G/60, 1.44 A/60, 1.09 1stA/60, 2.36 P/60, 74.6% IPP. Nino
Player D: 19g, 25a, 15 1stA. 44p, 12.03 s%, 1.03 G/60, 1.36 A/60, 0.81 1stA/60, 2.39 P/60, 67.7% IPP Zucker
**highlight after IPP for who is who. (IPP = Individual Points Percentage = The % of goals scored while player was on ice that the player had a point on).

Nothing in Granlund's stat line suggests that he'll continue to be a ~70p winger. He has the lowest IPP, goals, assists points, G/60, A/60, and P/60. Some of that comes down to useage, but Zucker should have similar numbers considering they were on ice together most of the time 5v5. Granny had the most ToI 5v5 so it will lower his /60 stats. But his total G, A, P were the already the lowest, so it doesn't really matter.
Actually they're stats people who have tracked Granlund games. One of them kind of predicted Granlund breaking out this last year.How we was used last year. Saying he was the third wheel on that line is insane when he was the one who made all the passes. I mean how many times did he pass to Zucker for breakaway goals?

Granlund Goodness

This last section will focus on Mikael Granlund and why, with this type of data, we can predict when a player has their “breakout season.†He really had a breakout year last season, but no one noticed for a few reasons: 1) This data wasn’t available to the extent it is now and needed time to analyze and test it, and 2) Granlund played 1115 minutes last season at 5v5 and had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.7%. So, no, he’s not breaking out this season – he’s regressing to the mean based on last year’s production which has continued into this season.

Now, I am well aware he’s scorching hot right now to the tune of an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.53%, but players that drive dangerous shots are, I believe, capable of going on runs like this more often than other players. If you’re regularly more involved in higher quality chances, you are more likely to see some higher shooting percentage streaks.

Granlund had 1.64 expected primary points last season in 387 5v5 minutes, just behind Jason Pominville and Zach Parise, who both had 1.68 expected primary points. This season, he’s at 1.44 in 159 5v5 minutes, just behind Jason Zucker and Zach Parise. How can he achieve these high expected primary point totals?

Last season, Granlund led the Wild forwards in Danger Zone Shot Contributions (primary shot assists and shots from behind the net and royal road passes) with 5.9 per sixty minutes. This season, he’s second on the team with 5.3 per sixty minutes, behind only Parise’s gaudy 7.4.

Naturally, this increases his on-ice expected goal numbers. Since I only have the on-ice data from last season, let’s see how Granlund ranked last season.

min

Notice the low GF60 compared to his expected numbers. All the signs were there for a productive future.

From this article https://www.google.com/amp/s/hockey...-playing-behind-the-net-predicting-goals/amp/
 

Bazeek

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I guess Granny wanted 50M with a long term.
But the Wild are still in cap trouble, so he takes a shorter term, but CF already agreed with him on the next deal in 3 years. 7x7M would be my guess.

If CF tries to screw him, Granny's gone.
But as far as we know, CF has kept his promises. Otherwise Backs would not have gotten his last contract.
Knowing this, Granny gave him a discount.

I'd be surprised if there's been any discussion of his next contract already. I think this is all about both sides getting more certainty before a longer commitment. The Wild can't afford to sign him as a 70 point winger and have him perform as a 50 point winger. Granlund shouldn't be expected to sign as a 50 point winger when he might expect 60-70 points out of himself for the next 5 seasons. 3 years allows both sides to develop better projections going forward. At that point a fair extension shouldn't be a problem if the fit is still good. Fletcher doesn't have a history of lowballing players in that situation.
 

Minnesota

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Sounds like playoff success in the next 3 years might determine whether Granlund wants to stay or not.
 

Wabit

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Actually they're stats people who have tracked Granlund games. One of them kind of predicted Granlund breaking out this last year.How we was used last year. Saying he was the third wheel on that line is insane when he was the one who made all the passes. I mean how many times did he pass to Zucker for breakaway goals?

Granlund Goodness

This last section will focus on Mikael Granlund and why, with this type of data, we can predict when a player has their “breakout season.†He really had a breakout year last season, but no one noticed for a few reasons: 1) This data wasn’t available to the extent it is now and needed time to analyze and test it, and 2) Granlund played 1115 minutes last season at 5v5 and had an on-ice shooting percentage of 5.7%. So, no, he’s not breaking out this season – he’s regressing to the mean based on last year’s production which has continued into this season.

Now, I am well aware heÂ’s scorching hot right now to the tune of an on-ice shooting percentage of 11.53%, but players that drive dangerous shots are, I believe, capable of going on runs like this more often than other players. If youÂ’re regularly more involved in higher quality chances, you are more likely to see some higher shooting percentage streaks.

Granlund had 1.64 expected primary points last season in 387 5v5 minutes, just behind Jason Pominville and Zach Parise, who both had 1.68 expected primary points. This season, heÂ’s at 1.44 in 159 5v5 minutes, just behind Jason Zucker and Zach Parise. How can he achieve these high expected primary point totals?

Last season, Granlund led the Wild forwards in Danger Zone Shot Contributions (primary shot assists and shots from behind the net and royal road passes) with 5.9 per sixty minutes. This season, heÂ’s second on the team with 5.3 per sixty minutes, behind only PariseÂ’s gaudy 7.4.

Naturally, this increases his on-ice expected goal numbers. Since I only have the on-ice data from last season, letÂ’s see how Granlund ranked last season.

min

Notice the low GF60 compared to his expected numbers. All the signs were there for a productive future.

From this article https://www.google.com/amp/s/hockey...-playing-behind-the-net-predicting-goals/amp/

It also tracked a smaller sample size than a full season (15-16). The GF60 stats varied by a considerable amount from the full season stats.
min.jpg

15-16 full season stats GF60:
Granny 1.77 (-.09)
Pommer 2.32 (-.69)
Parise 1.95 (-.10)
Nino 2.72 (-.93)
Vanek 2.20 (-.06)
Coyle 2.03 (-.30)
Zucker 1.97 (-.04)
Koivu 2.58 (+.24)
Haula 2.73 (-.53)

Some of the stats of within +/- .18 (3g for 1000 mins), but there are too many outliers for my liking. I really don't like comparing the 15-16 and 16-17 seasons for Granny; different position, different coach, and different usage are hard to quantify in advanced stats (imo).

The graph also reinforces what Wild fans had been saying for years: Granny needed to shoot the puck more instead of passing from the high scoring area's. He was better about shooting last season, but is still a pass first player. That alone will account for a lower GF60 compared to the expected numbers.

And yes, I do see him as a 3rd wheel (complimentary player) on the Koivu line last season. Koivu was the most important player on the line (and most important FWD on the team). Zucker's addition made the line one of the best 2-way lines in the NHL. Zucker's speed made for a lot of rushes, open ice for Koivu and Granny, and made the opposing d-men less aggressive in their o-zone because of the speed/scoring threat of Zucker. If Zucker could score on a breakaway he would have had 5-10 more goals easily. Granny is a great passer and was responsible for some of them, but Koivu and the d-corps sprung Zucker a bunch of times too.

Teams need the playmaker wings, but they should be in the $4.5m-$5m range, not the $5.5m-$6m range. It's one of the reasons Pommer got dumped and viewed as overpayed, he went from a goal scorer to mainly an assist player. 5v5 Granny/Pommer have had similar stat lines the last couple of seasons. Granny essentially got Pommer's contract. Granny is an upgrade for the money because he is, more useful on the PP (halfwall compared to point), a slightly better passer, younger, and can handle more ToI. Just for me Granny is still getting overpayed for the 15-20g and 35-40a player I view him as being.

Which is the real Granny?
1st 24 games: 5g/9a, 14p, .56ppg, 45p pace
next 27 games: 10g/24a, 34p, 1.26ppg (points in 24 of those games), 103p pace (McDavid numbers)
last 30 games: 11g/10a, 21p, .7ppg, 57p pace
** I split it up a little funny to cover his white hot stretch. 27 game splits were paces of 51p, 98p, 61p. Broken hand during the Playoffs, so I'm not counting those games.
***27 games splits are 3 games off of the minimum chart numbers. So depending what games are tracked could have a huge influence on the expected numbers.

Hot streaks and cold streaks can really effect season totals. Coyle the first 2/3 of the season he was on a 65p pace, the last 1/3 he had a 36p pace (ice cold). Granny had a 53p pace for 2/3 of the season, the other 1/3 he had a 103p pace (white hot).
 

PlusMinusZero

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It also tracked a smaller sample size than a full season (15-16). The GF60 stats varied by a considerable amount from the full season stats.
min.jpg

15-16 full season stats GF60:
Granny 1.77 (-.09)
Pommer 2.32 (-.69)
Parise 1.95 (-.10)
Nino 2.72 (-.93)
Vanek 2.20 (-.06)
Coyle 2.03 (-.30)
Zucker 1.97 (-.04)
Koivu 2.58 (+.24)
Haula 2.73 (-.53)

Some of the stats of within +/- .18 (3g for 1000 mins), but there are too many outliers for my liking. I really don't like comparing the 15-16 and 16-17 seasons for Granny; different position, different coach, and different usage are hard to quantify in advanced stats (imo).

The graph also reinforces what Wild fans had been saying for years: Granny needed to shoot the puck more instead of passing from the high scoring area's. He was better about shooting last season, but is still a pass first player. That alone will account for a lower GF60 compared to the expected numbers.

And yes, I do see him as a 3rd wheel (complimentary player) on the Koivu line last season. Koivu was the most important player on the line (and most important FWD on the team). Zucker's addition made the line one of the best 2-way lines in the NHL. Zucker's speed made for a lot of rushes, open ice for Koivu and Granny, and made the opposing d-men less aggressive in their o-zone because of the speed/scoring threat of Zucker. If Zucker could score on a breakaway he would have had 5-10 more goals easily. Granny is a great passer and was responsible for some of them, but Koivu and the d-corps sprung Zucker a bunch of times too.

Teams need the playmaker wings, but they should be in the $4.5m-$5m range, not the $5.5m-$6m range. It's one of the reasons Pommer got dumped and viewed as overpayed, he went from a goal scorer to mainly an assist player. 5v5 Granny/Pommer have had similar stat lines the last couple of seasons. Granny essentially got Pommer's contract. Granny is an upgrade for the money because he is, more useful on the PP (halfwall compared to point), a slightly better passer, younger, and can handle more ToI. Just for me Granny is still getting overpayed for the 15-20g and 35-40a player I view him as being.

Which is the real Granny?
1st 24 games: 5g/9a, 14p, .56ppg, 45p pace
next 27 games: 10g/24a, 34p, 1.26ppg (points in 24 of those games), 103p pace (McDavid numbers)
last 30 games: 11g/10a, 21p, .7ppg, 57p pace

** I split it up a little funny to cover his white hot stretch. 27 game splits were paces of 51p, 98p, 61p. Broken hand during the Playoffs, so I'm not counting those games.
***27 games splits are 3 games off of the minimum chart numbers. So depending what games are tracked could have a huge influence on the expected numbers.

Hot streaks and cold streaks can really effect season totals. Coyle the first 2/3 of the season he was on a 65p pace, the last 1/3 he had a 36p pace (ice cold). Granny had a 53p pace for 2/3 of the season, the other 1/3 he had a 103p pace (white hot).

Just because I´m curious,give me Coyle and Nino numbers in that season form.
 

Saga of the Elk

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Definitely not up for running the numbers tonight, but Nino's performance by some baseline numbers is pretty amazing. Makes me wonder what they or agents look at when determining value. Love both these deals but I think you could make a case that Nino is the better player.

Wild win if that is the case. I'm mostly curious if points are really all these negotiations boil down to.
 

Nharris31

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Aug 9, 2013
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Definitely not up for running the numbers tonight, but Nino's performance by some baseline numbers is pretty amazing. Makes me wonder what they or agents look at when determining value. Love both these deals but I think you could make a case that Nino is the better player.

Wild win if that is the case. I'm mostly curious if points are really all these negotiations boil down to.

I wouldn't be surprised possession stats play a part in them now either.
 

Nharris31

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Aug 9, 2013
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It also tracked a smaller sample size than a full season (15-16). The GF60 stats varied by a considerable amount from the full season stats.
min.jpg

15-16 full season stats GF60:
Granny 1.77 (-.09)
Pommer 2.32 (-.69)
Parise 1.95 (-.10)
Nino 2.72 (-.93)
Vanek 2.20 (-.06)
Coyle 2.03 (-.30)
Zucker 1.97 (-.04)
Koivu 2.58 (+.24)
Haula 2.73 (-.53)

Some of the stats of within +/- .18 (3g for 1000 mins), but there are too many outliers for my liking. I really don't like comparing the 15-16 and 16-17 seasons for Granny; different position, different coach, and different usage are hard to quantify in advanced stats (imo).

The graph also reinforces what Wild fans had been saying for years: Granny needed to shoot the puck more instead of passing from the high scoring area's. He was better about shooting last season, but is still a pass first player. That alone will account for a lower GF60 compared to the expected numbers.

And yes, I do see him as a 3rd wheel (complimentary player) on the Koivu line last season. Koivu was the most important player on the line (and most important FWD on the team). Zucker's addition made the line one of the best 2-way lines in the NHL. Zucker's speed made for a lot of rushes, open ice for Koivu and Granny, and made the opposing d-men less aggressive in their o-zone because of the speed/scoring threat of Zucker. If Zucker could score on a breakaway he would have had 5-10 more goals easily. Granny is a great passer and was responsible for some of them, but Koivu and the d-corps sprung Zucker a bunch of times too.

Teams need the playmaker wings, but they should be in the $4.5m-$5m range, not the $5.5m-$6m range. It's one of the reasons Pommer got dumped and viewed as overpayed, he went from a goal scorer to mainly an assist player. 5v5 Granny/Pommer have had similar stat lines the last couple of seasons. Granny essentially got Pommer's contract. Granny is an upgrade for the money because he is, more useful on the PP (halfwall compared to point), a slightly better passer, younger, and can handle more ToI. Just for me Granny is still getting overpayed for the 15-20g and 35-40a player I view him as being.

Which is the real Granny?
1st 24 games: 5g/9a, 14p, .56ppg, 45p pace
next 27 games: 10g/24a, 34p, 1.26ppg (points in 24 of those games), 103p pace (McDavid numbers)
last 30 games: 11g/10a, 21p, .7ppg, 57p pace
** I split it up a little funny to cover his white hot stretch. 27 game splits were paces of 51p, 98p, 61p. Broken hand during the Playoffs, so I'm not counting those games.
***27 games splits are 3 games off of the minimum chart numbers. So depending what games are tracked could have a huge influence on the expected numbers.

Hot streaks and cold streaks can really effect season totals. Coyle the first 2/3 of the season he was on a 65p pace, the last 1/3 he had a 36p pace (ice cold). Granny had a 53p pace for 2/3 of the season, the other 1/3 he had a 103p pace (white hot).
I don't think they're was third wheel on that line at all. I'll trust the guy that's been doing stats for a while this guy actually physically sits down and watches to track his stuff.
 

paragon

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May 5, 2010
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Sounds like playoff success in the next 3 years might determine whether Granlund wants to stay or not.
Why would it? Success in the next 3 years doesn't mean there will be success in the future. Wilds window will be pretty much closed in 3 years.

In 3 years Granlund, Spurgeon and Coyle all hit free agency and Wilds most expensive player will still be 36 year old Zach Parise with 5 more years remaining. How bright does the future of the team look in the eyes of those UFAs? If I was in his shoes in 3 years I'd rather be passing the puck to McDavid, Laine or Matthews rather than Parise.

If playoff success is indeed the biggest motivator for Granlund he's as good as gone in 3 years.
 

Sharppi

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Why would it? Success in the next 3 years doesn't mean there will be success in the future. Wilds window will be pretty much closed in 3 years.

In 3 years Granlund, Spurgeon and Coyle all hit free agency and Wilds most expensive player will still be 36 year old Zach Parise with 5 more years remaining. How bright does the future of the team look in the eyes of those UFAs? If I was in his shoes in 3 years I'd rather be passing the puck to McDavid, Laine or Matthews rather than Parise.

If playoff success is indeed the biggest motivator for Granlund he's as good as gone in 3 years.

Because Wild can't inject any talent in their lineup. Alrighty then.
 

Minnesota

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Because Wild can't inject any talent in their lineup. Alrighty then.

Yup, didn't you hear about the 2017-2020 roster lock? No player movement or prospect graduation allowed between now and then. ;)
 

Minnesnota

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Just because I'm curious,give me Coyle and Nino numbers in that season form.

Nino:
First 24 Games: 7g/8a, 15p, .62ppg, 15.9% shooting, 51p pace
Next 28 Games: 10/13a, 23p, .85ppg, 14.9% shooting, 70pt pace
Last 30 Games: 8g/11a, 19p, .63ppg, 10.7% shooting, 52p pace

Coyle:
First 24 Games: 9g/8a, 17p, .70ppg, 16.1% shooting, 58p pace
Next 28 Games: 3g/20a, 24p, .85ppg, 10% shooting, 70p pace
Last 30 Games: 5g/10a, 15p, ..50ppg, 7.9% shooting, 41p pace

Granlund:
First 25 Games: 5g/9a, 14p, .58ppg, 12.5% shooting, 48p pace
Next 28 Games: 10g/24a, 34p, 1.21ppg, 14.3% shooting, 100p pace
Last 29 Games: 11g/10a, 21p, .70ppg, 16.4% shooting, 57p pace
 

BagHead

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Dec 23, 2010
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Minneapolis, MN
Nino:
First 24 Games: 7g/8a, 15p, .62ppg, 15.9% shooting, 51p pace
Next 28 Games: 10/13a, 23p, .85ppg, 14.9% shooting, 70pt pace
Last 30 Games: 8g/11a, 19p, .63ppg, 10.7% shooting, 52p pace

Coyle:
First 24 Games: 9g/8a, 17p, .70ppg, 16.1% shooting, 58p pace
Next 28 Games: 3g/20a, 24p, .85ppg, 10% shooting, 70p pace
Last 30 Games: 5g/10a, 15p, ..50ppg, 7.9% shooting, 41p pace

Granlund:
First 25 Games: 5g/9a, 14p, .58ppg, 12.5% shooting, 48p pace
Next 28 Games: 10g/24a, 34p, 1.21ppg, 14.3% shooting, 100p pace
Last 29 Games: 11g/10a, 21p, .70ppg, 16.4% shooting, 57p pace

So it wasn't just one line that was hot. That's very interesting. Basically, while the team was hot, Granlund was it's best young player offensively. While the team went cold, Granlund was slightly behind or slightly ahead, but roughly comparable. So, at worst, Granlund is as good offensively as Coyle and Nino, and at best, far better. At least, according to the limited sample size of one season.
 

Minnesnota

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So it wasn't just one line that was hot. That's very interesting. Basically, while the team was hot, Granlund was it's best young player offensively. While the team went cold, Granlund was slightly behind or slightly ahead, but roughly comparable. So, at worst, Granlund is as good offensively as Coyle and Nino, and at best, far better. At least, according to the limited sample size of one season.

More stats for you.

Points Per 60:

Nino:
First 24: 2.57
Next 28: 3.23 (25% increase)
Last 30: 2.47 (23% decrease)
Season: 2.76

Coyle:
First 24: 2.35
Next 28: 3.07 (30% increase)
Last 30: 1.91 ( 37% decrease)
Season: 2.45

Granlund:
First 24: 1.80
Next 28: 3.93 (118% increase)
Last 29: 2.33 (40% decrease)
Season: 2.71
 

AKL

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More stats for you.

Points Per 60:

Nino:
First 24: 2.57
Next 28: 3.23 (25% increase)
Last 30: 2.47 (23% decrease)
Season: 2.76

Coyle:
First 24: 2.35
Next 28: 3.07 (30% increase)
Last 30: 1.91 ( 37% decrease)
Season: 2.45

Granlund:
First 24: 1.80
Next 28: 3.93 (118% increase)
Last 29: 2.33 (40% decrease)
Season: 2.71

This is pretty much what we know. Nino is the steadiest, but Granlund has the "biggest boom" potential. He's more "dynamic", if you will.
 
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