To be 100% honest here is my exact trajectory after the trade. When I first heard it I didn't like it at all. I didn't mind trading Hall (and I was a Hall fan), but thought it made sense. But I din't like the return at all. The famous it's one for one line made me a bit ill. After a great year, and Hall getting hurt, I was on a high. I thought, you know after all that, we did win the trade. I don't think I was thinking that rationally. A year later I feel like it was a horrible deal.
The big thing I will say about the deal going forward though, which I didn't do this year, is I won't judge it on how well the team does. With great talent like McD and others I think this team will bounce back and win. I won't just give Larsson credit for that. I want to compare Hall vs Larsson team results aside. If Larsson plays great Defence, logs big minutes, puts up 30 some points and looks like a legit top paring D. The of course, I will acknowledge the deal once again was even. However, I just don't see any chance that happens. So yes, I might just change my mind again. I just really don't see that happening. I think Larsson will be what most hockey writers thought he was at the time of the trade, a decent 3-4 guy with limited up side. I am sure Hall will not have such a great year next, and probably get hurt again. However, he is still going to make this deal look terrible going forward.
I guess to answer your question exactly. I won't make the mistake again of judging the trade based on the oilers season. If they have a great season I am still going to look at Hall vs Larsson. If Larsson looks great, I'll admit I underestimated him. Just don't see that happening, but prove me wrong Larsson. I would love to be proven wrong.