Who will win the Calder Trophy this season?

[jonlin]

Plus-minus doesn’t matter.

Ooh it doesnt? I always thought the team that score more than is scored upon wins? I`ll educate you - If you score 5 goals and the opponent score 2, at even strenght = You are +3

 

[Buck Naked]

Plus-minus doesn’t matter.

Depends on how you contextualize it. As a plain stat, it's worthless.

 

[jonlin]

Depends on how you contextualize it. As a plain stat, it's worthless.

I have never understood "+/- is worthless"? Ofcourse its a worthy stat - it means when the player is on the ice 5vs5 his team score more than let in. How is that worthless?

 

[Pavels Dog]

First line minutes coupled with #1 PP time should be more favorable than third line with defensive responsibilities, #1 PK, and very limited PP time no matter what teams we're talking about. Especially in terms of offensive production. And it's not like Lundell plays against scrubs. As a center he's generally facing more elite competition than Sam Bennett's line.

I think this underrates how good Florida is and how bad Detroit is.

Case in point - Lundell is the worst Florida regular in terms of shot-attempts%. He'd still be, with a decent margin, the best on Detroit.

Detroit gets murdered in the possession battle almost every game.
Raymond may be in about as favorable a situation as there is in Detroit, but that still means very little when compared to actually good teams.

 

[Buck Naked]

I have never understood "+/- is worthless"? Ofcourse its a worthy stat - it means when the player is on the ice 5vs5 his team score more than let in. How is that worthless?

Not just 5v5, basically every situation except for goals for on the PP and goals against on the PK. The reason why I'm saying that it isn't a good stat without context is that it doesn't account for anything other than a player being on the ice. You could be part of a line change and your skates hit the ice one second before a goal against is scored, and all of a sudden you're a minus player. Therefore, it works as a team stat rather than an individual stat, unless you apply context.

 

[JoVel]

I have never understood "+/- is worthless"? Ofcourse its a worthy stat - it means when the player is on the ice 5vs5 his team score more than let in. How is that worthless?

+/- has its use when comparing players within the same team. Different teams, it's useless.

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

I have never understood "+/- is worthless"? Ofcourse its a worthy stat - it means when the player is on the ice 5vs5 his team score more than let in. How is that worthless?

It’s not worthless, but it’s not a great measure of a player’s relative usefulness in terms of scoring and/or preventing goals without context: how a player is utilized on the team, quality of teammates, his match ups, and so on.

It gets super frustrating sometimes when people look at the +/- to draw conclusions: “hey why do we keep playing this defenseman 25 minutes a night when this other guy is playing 17 minutes with a superior +/-?“. Did you realize that the “minus” player is routinely matched up against the other teams’ top lines for defensive zone draws, usually with a low scoring checking line taking the faceoffs, and wondered what that will do for his +/- in the long run? If you’re always out defending McDrai, you’ll have a tougher time maintaining a positive +/- than if you’re matched up against RNH.

Here’s another example I saw in a thread more recently: Peter Forsberg was a great player, and he didn’t have a minus season before the comeback attempt in 2011. He’s known for being a great two way player, belligerent and physical, useful on the penalty kill, for starting offense from the defensive end and so on. Knowing this, some will look at his 2002-03 Art Ross run and notice the insane +52 spike. Just wow! To think he managed that while also being heavily relied on for his defense!

Well, no. A big reason behind his 2002-03 spike in +/- was the fact that they used him almost exclusively in an offensive role. He’s said so as well when asked about that season, that he didn’t take many defensive zone draws that year.

So my point is, it’s not worthless, and it can be very useful as an indicator of something else, but in a vacuum it’s often misinterpreted and wrongly believed to mean something it doesn’t.

 

[jonlin]

Well, no. A big reason behind his 2002-03 spike in +/- was the fact that they used him almost exclusively in an offensive role. He’s said so as well when asked about that season, that he didn’t take many defensive zone draws that year.

Well, when talking about Lundell the +/- is actually relevant then. The kid has almost 65% defensive zone starts and is used as a defending 3C on a checking line, giving Barkov more offensive starts. Atleast that is what I grt outta your post...

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

Well, when talking about Lundell the +/- is actually relevant then. The kid has almost 65% defensive zone starts and is used as a defending 3C on a checking line, giving Barkov more offensive starts. Atleast that is what I grt outta your post...

Could be, but there's a lot of context to apply to make sense of his +/-. If you watch a lot of Panther games, are familiar with the players and notice employment and match-ups, you are in a better position to explain what his +/- is indicative of and to what extent he's the one driving the success when he's out 5v5. For me on the outside looking in, I see that he's one out of a whole lot of plus players on the team. I can probably draw the conclusions they as a team are successful, deep, and that the lines and match-ups seem to work well. If I start applying more context, like you did there, I can probably draw more conclusions from the +/- stat, but in itself, it's hard for me to tell what Lundell's +/- says about him.

 

[Buck Naked]

Well, when talking about Lundell the +/- is actually relevant then. The kid has almost 65% defensive zone starts and is used as a defending 3C on a checking line, giving Barkov more offensive starts. Atleast that is what I grt outta your post...

I think the most important thing to take away from that post is that it can be interpreted that way, but looking at it alone won't tell you that for sure. Since he provided somewhat of a context coupled with zone starts and responsibilities, +/- could tell us something. Had the context been different in his example, for instance saw mostly defensive zone starts rather than offensive, the +/- would've told a different story, despite being exactly the same numeric value. Hence, why context is so important and why +/- is pretty useless without it.

 

[jonlin]

Could be, but there's a lot of context to apply to make sense of his +/-. If you watch a lot of Panther games, are familiar with the players and notice employment and match-ups, you are in a better position to explain what his +/- is indicative of and to what extent he's the one driving the success when he's out 5v5. For me on the outside looking in, I see that he's one out of a whole lot of plus players on the team. I can probably draw the conclusions they as a team are successful, deep, and that the lines and match-ups seem to work well. If I start applying more context, like you did there, I can probably draw more conclusions from the +/- stat, but in itself, it's hard for me to tell what Lundell's +/- says about him.

Well, the kid starts 64+% in the defensive zone is a C, leads the league in takeaways of all forwards and is+14. I`d say thats pretty good for a rookie checking-line C

 

[Yozhik v tumane]

Well, the kid starts 64+% in the defensive zone is a C, leads the league in takeaways of all forwards and is+14. I`d say thats pretty good for a rookie checking-line C

Yes it sure is! But the +14 I argue is less valuable information to evaluate him on than the other stats you mentioned. Most Panthers are plus players, they are a great team, and I’d reckon he’s got strong support helping to drive that +/-, it just doesn’t seem to stand out too much on that team. Lundell seems to provide very solid offense for a rookie two-way center who’s not been a PP regular, however. I agree he looks like a Calder candidate based on his stats.

 

[jonlin]

Yes it sure is! But the +14 I argue is less valuable information to evaluate him on than the other stats you mentioned. Most Panthers are plus players, they are a great team, and I’d reckon he’s got strong support helping to drive that +/-, it just doesn’t seem to stand out too much on that team. Lundell seems to provide very solid offense for a rookie two-way center who’s not been a PP regular, however. I agree he looks like a Calder candidate based on his stats.

Cant actually remember another rookie with this usage as a C. They usually are sheltered into offensive duties and little to no PK. Lundell has it the other way around. So, it actually tells a lot of him as a 2-way player.

 

[Zegs2sendhelp]

Cant actually remember another rookie with this usage as a C. They usually are sheltered into offensive duties and little to no PK. Lundell has it the other way around. So, it actually tells a lot of him as a 2-way player.

I think I agree with the other poster… the +/- is nice but not as impressive as the other stats you provided(dzone starts + takeaways + pk time etc), as those all provide a little clearer context.


I also don’t think anyone is really saying lundell isn’t a fantastic player, he’s great and gunna be a stud and honestly have barkov + lundell back to back(as he gets more ice time) down the middle for a few years should put the panthers in a really good spot for some cup runs

 

[lucaseider]

You are just throwing stuff out, that arent even true and see if they will stick. Maybe check facts before you state things as facts?
Its really not that hard to check statistics. There are plenty of sites for it, so no need to dictate up stuff.

He is making shit up? No, that is clearly you when you have seen the other players 0 times. Because you clearly have not seen or no a dam thing about Raymond if you think he is a offensive specialist. All your crying means nothing in the end because seider is far better this year and will be for his career.

 

[bsu]

If Zegras was playing with the caliber of players that Raymond is he would be running away with this imho, that being said Seider has to be the favorite right now.

 

[newfy]

If Zegras was playing with the caliber of players that Raymond is he would be running away with this imho, that being said Seider has to be the favorite right now.

I think youre exaggerating. Raymond is really good. Detroit doesnt have a second center like Getzlaf that teams have to worry about at all, he also doesnt get the benefit of having someone like Getzlaf handle the harder minutes. The defense Zegras is working with is a lot better as well. Bertuzzi and Larkin are definitely better, but I'm not sure Raymond circumstances overall are drastically better to the point of saying Zegras would run away with anything

 

[Buck Naked]

He is making shit up? No, that is clearly you when you have seen the other players 0 times. Because you clearly have not seen or no a dam thing about Raymond if you think he is a offensive specialist. All your crying means nothing in the end because seider is far better this year and will be for his career.

Hurt much?

 

[bsu]

I think youre exaggerating. Raymond is really good. Detroit doesnt have a second center like Getzlaf that teams have to worry about at all, he also doesnt get the benefit of having someone like Getzlaf handle the harder minutes. The defense Zegras is working with is a lot better as well. Bertuzzi and Larkin are definitely better, but I'm not sure Raymond circumstances overall are drastically better to the point of saying Zegras would run away with anything

Getzlaf is lucky to be playing with Terry and has looked like a grandpa since the break. But yes his experience and leadership is evident.

 

[lucaseider]

Hurt much?

Why? Cause I called him for calling Raymond an offensive specialist? Doesn't take more than one game to see Raymond is actually very good defensively.

 

[lucaseider]

Getzlaf is lucky to be playing with Terry and has looked like a grandpa since the break. But yes his experience and leadership is evident.

I mean, I hope he is still better than pius suter.

 

[bsu]

I mean, I hope he is still better than pius suter.

He is but I think the players you are on the ice with are more important than the ones you watch from the bench... Especially when it comes to scoring points and keeping puck possession during your shifts.

 

[Buck Naked]

Why? Cause I called him for calling Raymond an offensive specialist? Doesn't take more than one game to see Raymond is actually very good defensively.

I know.

 

[newfy]

He is but I think the players you are on the ice with are more important than the ones you watch from the bench... Especially when it comes to scoring points and keeping puck possession during your shifts.

Getzlaf and Terry give other teams a pick your poison situation though. Terry has been the scariest duck this year in games I've watched, so if anything I'm sure teams are focusing more on him than Zegras' line. With the wings, you have absolutely none of that. They have an awesome top line and nothing after that worth talking about up front, especially offensively. Every teams focus is on Raymonds line every single game, its not on Zegras the same way at all. That makes a massive difference as well. As much as you could say Zegras would dominate with Raymond's linemates, I could say the same thing about Raymond against second lines and 2nd pairing dmen.

 

[HanSolo]

Ooh it doesnt? I always thought the team that score more than is scored upon wins? I`ll educate you - If you score 5 goals and the opponent score 2, at even strenght = You are +3

Oh well no we've all come to understand the value of the +/- metric. Thanks for the education.