Speculation: Who will the Kracken take from the Devils in the Expansion Draft?

[PKs Broken Stick]

Ok wait, just to make sure I got this right....anyone shown on the capfriendly site (and not protected) is eligible to be picked right?

 

[Triumph]

Zboril or Lauzon from Boston for example. Guys like that with a lot of upside. Instead of a Subban.

I don't think this is the right strategy. I think you want some of these guys, but I think you want to have done your homework on which guys like this are going to be available and focus in on the ones you really want. Because the truth is most guys like Lauzon and Zboril are marginal NHLers - they're both 24 and have been kicking around Boston's system for a long time. If you crowd 10 of these sorts of guys on to a roster, yeah maybe 2 or 3 make it and become average players, but the rest will become near-worthless. To me, Seattle's goal should be thinking about how to maximize return for most of the players they take. Everyone else in the league has been drafting for the last 5 years and you haven't - there's not a good way to make up that gap except by flipping expansion picks for draft picks/prospects.

I'm not sure they'll do this - obviously Vegas kinda split the difference but then it ended up that a lot of the guys they picked turned out to be great. That was not their plan. Vegas has had a great 4 years but their future looks kinda rough a few years out as their roster ages and they don't have young players to replace the guys aging out. They did the right thing by trading away Brannstrom and Suzuki, but their future strategy is to get UFAs - their prospect pool is pretty shallow and their roster doesn't have a ton of valuable guys on it outside of Tuch and Theodore.

The worst thing you can do as Seattle is get to the middle fast - then you'll likely be bottoming out in 5 years right when the players you didn't draft in the 2020 entry draft are hitting their prime,the novelty of the franchise is gone, and there's no more value in the players you selected in the expansion draft.

 

[Guttersniped]

Pronman just had an article about which young players, age 23 or younger as of Sept 15, the Kraken should target.

Building the Kraken for the future: Young players Seattle should target (and avoid) in expansion

Prime Target: Projected upper half of the NHL line-up player: one player
Jake Bean

Possible Target: Projected bottom half of the line-up NHL player: thirteen players
Bastian is on it.

Also on this list.
Kieffer Bellows, NYI
Kale Clague, LA
Cal Foote, Tampa
Julien Gauthier, NYR
Jonah Gadjovich, Van
Grundstrom, LA
Geekie, Carolina
Katchouk, Tampa
Lind, Van
Lizotte, LA
Mahura, Anaheim
Raddysh, Tampa

Bastian is a big, competitive winger with size and a little offense but his poor skating will likely limit him from being more than a bottom lineup part.

Not a target: Not a projected full-time NHL player: 50 players

Four Devils are on it:
Evan Cormier (*gasp* there’s a shocker.)
Brandon Gignac (not a surprise either)
David Quenneville (Yeah, we suspected that.)
Marian Studenic (Shut your whore mouth Pronman and leave our smiling lovable Slovakian effort guy alone.)

Also on that list:
Vitaly Abramov, Ottawa (who used to be a thing.)
Joey Anderson, Toronto (Uh…)
Tyler Benson, Oiler (A popular selection in some mock drafts because the Oilers have literally nothing depthwise)
Cale Fleury, Montreal (who used to be a thing too)

 

[Guttersniped]

I don't think this is the right strategy. I think you want some of these guys, but I think you want to have done your homework on which guys like this are going to be available and focus in on the ones you really want. Because the truth is most guys like Lauzon and Zboril are marginal NHLers - they're both 24 and have been kicking around Boston's system for a long time. If you crowd 10 of these sorts of guys on to a roster, yeah maybe 2 or 3 make it and become average players, but the rest will become near-worthless. To me, Seattle's goal should be thinking about how to maximize return for most of the players they take. Everyone else in the league has been drafting for the last 5 years and you haven't - there's not a good way to make up that gap except by flipping expansion picks for draft picks/prospects.

I'm not sure they'll do this - obviously Vegas kinda split the difference but then it ended up that a lot of the guys they picked turned out to be great. That was not their plan. Vegas has had a great 4 years but their future looks kinda rough a few years out as their roster ages and they don't have young players to replace the guys aging out. They did the right thing by trading away Brannstrom and Suzuki, but their future strategy is to get UFAs - their prospect pool is pretty shallow and their roster doesn't have a ton of valuable guys on it outside of Tuch and Theodore.

The worst thing you can do as Seattle is get to the middle fast - then you'll likely be bottoming out in 5 years right when the players you didn't draft in the 2020 entry draft are hitting their prime,the novelty of the franchise is gone, and there's no more value in the players you selected in the expansion draft.

Being a GM means knowing every plan is fluid, but half the players in the expansion draft did contribute to Vegas’ first season. This is a good article discussing their approach.

They will most likely take one of Boston’s three defensemen, it could be Clifton because he’s RD or Lauzon or Zorbil because they’re signed for two years and then RFAs. They are cost controlled younger defensemen coming from an winning, well coached team. Someone has to play for this team, specifically on defense, and I don’t actually see a lot of valuable tradable assets on Boston’s list.

Expansion draft: What the Kraken can learn from Vegas and why they won't choose the best available player

And trading Suzuki was the right thing? Huh?

Vegas prospect pool is shallower because of the assets that were shoveled out of it.

All three 1st round picks from 2017 have been traded, now Nick Hague (#34) is the only remaining contributor so far from 12 pick draft class.

In 2018 the only pick they had in the first three rounds was 61st pick in the 2nd round.

They did pick up a ton of assets in Expansion Draft related deals. The 2019 2nd used in the 2018 Patches trade was from a ED deal with Columbus.

The 2020 2nd used in the 2019 Mark Stone was from Dallas, they got it dumping Marc Methot in June 2017 after picking him in ED from Ottawa.

 

[goonybird]

When did this obsession with Bastian start and why

 

[jkrdevil]

Running through the CapFriendly draft simulator and I think Bastian is definitely Seattle's pick. That all of the players salaries from last year count toward the $81.5 million upper limit for the draft (if UFA's they are just going to let walk) makes it tricky to take on big salary of Subban's size when you have to fit 30 players under that limit.

 

[ninetyeight]

When did this obsession with Bastian start and why

When he blocked like 5 shots in one shift few years back in Bing. He's already a good big defensive minded fourth line grinder, and he'll probably keeps getting even better. Teams need guys like him.

 

[TBF1972]

I think it's Johnsson. He's a little over priced even if he bounces back, but provides the biggest offensive upside, had shown a history of producing at an acceptable level. In theory, he'd provide the greatest versatility throughout a lineup. We've seen him play the third man on a top line in Toronto, not out of place in the middle six

i don't think they waste 3.4 million on an insignificant player like johnsson, who plays the easiest position to find replacement level players. ask yourself would you rather have three johnsson's or tarasenko and two bastian's.

they will pick bastian. similar upside. offers size. costs only a quarter of the cap.

 

[TheUnseenHand]

i don't think they waste 3.4 million on an insignificant player like johnsson, who plays the easiest position to find replacement level players. ask yourself would you rather have three johnsson's or tarasenko and two bastian's.

they will pick bastian. similar upside. offers size. costs only a quarter of the cap.

As much as I like Bastian for what he brings to this team and as much as I find Johnsson overpriced and redundant, I do not think Bastian has similar upside at all. Bastian is more valuable to this team, because he's a physical 4th line grinder and super buddy with McLeod, than he is to really any other team. He's a very replaceable player. As is Johnsson, but with Johnsson you definitely get more versatility and higher offensive upside.

 

[goonybird]

When he blocked like 5 shots in one shift few years back in Bing. He's already a good big defensive minded fourth line grinder, and he'll probably keeps getting even better. Teams need guys like him.

Ah. Seattle must have had scouts at our bingo games a few years ago

 

[NjdevilfanJim]

Seattle will be tempted to roll the dice on Johnsson he's a former 40 50 point player.,...Bastian will temp them for his physical game and willingness to fight.....That said if Johnsson recovers his game and does it with Devils Kracken ffd up and left the player with more flip value......

 

[MadDevil]

I've thought it would be Butcher for like a year now, so I'll stick with that pick, even though I do think Bastian probably makes more sense now (he's younger, cheaper, and under team control longer).

 

[TBF1972]

As much as I like Bastian for what he brings to this team and as much as I find Johnsson overpriced and redundant, I do not think Bastian has similar upside at all. Bastian is more valuable to this team, because he's a physical 4th line grinder and super buddy with McLeod, than he is to really any other team. He's a very replaceable player. As is Johnsson, but with Johnsson you definitely get more versatility and higher offensive upside.

Offensive upside (=point production)? Yes. Upside? I am not sure.

Seattle will have plenty of options to burn their cap, as multiple high priced players are available, which have much higher upside than Johnsson and are also more proven. Certain won't be considered because of term. But Jonsson isn't enough of a difference maker to burn cap on. They are better off to select a cheaper player from the Devils.

 

[Team Concept]

When did this obsession with Bastian start and why

He had 136 hits last year in 41 games which projects as 272 hits in a full season. He brings an element of physicality that this team currently lacks in spades. I would hate to lose him.

 

[hidek91]

He had 136 hits last year in 41 games which projects as 272 hits in a full season. He brings an element of physicality that this team currently lacks in spades. I would hate to lose him.

And also is solid defensively and quite good with the puck in the offensive zone.

Some teams will lose more valuable assets but for a basement team, losing somebody like Bastian on a super cheap deal is a bit sad.

 

[TrufleShufle]

To sum it up, Bastian does stuff that we have little of, pretty well, Johnsson does stuff that we have a lot of, pretty bad.

 

[DEVILS130]

The current poll results are the exact order of ‘likelihood’ that I would guess

 

[Offseason Champs]

Bastian is also a dime a dozen player. To be honest I’d rather him be the pick so we can see if we can squeeze any value out of Johnsson and Butcher. However I don’t know why someone would take Bastian over either of those two.

 

[My3Sons]

Bastian is also a dime a dozen player. To be honest I’d rather him be the pick so we can see if we can squeeze any value out of Johnsson and Butcher. However I don’t know why someone would take Bastian over either of those two.

It's hard to see any of them really moving the needle for SEA. None of them really move the needle that much for NJ I'm not sure why SEA would covet any of them. At that point, they likely go with the youngest cheapest option.

 

[AfroThunder396]

I think people are ignoring the cap aspects of the expansion process. If SEA takes Tarasenko, Voracek, Eberle, and Giordano, that's 28M in cap space. Over 1/3 or the cap in 4 guys. They are *required* to take 30 guys, meaning they'd only have 53.5M to bring in an additional 26 players.

There are also guys like Zucker (5.5M) and Niederreiter (5.5M) available, and this is ignoring side deals that could see a guy like Henrique (5.1M) heading to SEA.

That's kinda the point of the ED. Teams are intentionally leaving good but overpaid players unprotected so that SEA can bail them out of bad contracts. Guys on good deals are not getting exposed.

They simply have to take some very low <1M salary guys just to make the cap work. In that context, a guy like Bastian makes a lot of sense - he's young, cheap, RFA. A guy you could plug in for a year and move on from when you have a better idea of what your team is.

 

[Triumph]

One thing this doesn't say is whether or not the summer cap applies to Seattle - while they can only select players up to 100% of the salary cap, it says nothing about making trades. I'm guessing the summer cap doesn't apply until free agency opens. That said, there could be some trades made at that point to bring them over the cap temporarily? Who knows.

 

[tr83]

I think people are ignoring the cap aspects of the expansion process. If SEA takes Tarasenko, Voracek, Eberle, and Giordano, that's 28M in cap space. Over 1/3 or the cap in 4 guys. They are *required* to take 30 guys, meaning they'd only have 53.5M to bring in an additional 26 players.

There are also guys like Zucker (5.5M) and Niederreiter (5.5M) available, and this is ignoring side deals that could see a guy like Henrique (5.1M) heading to SEA.

That's kinda the point of the ED. Teams are intentionally leaving good but overpaid players unprotected so that SEA can bail them out of bad contracts. Guys on good deals are not getting exposed.

They simply have to take some very low <1M salary guys just to make the cap work. In that context, a guy like Bastian makes a lot of sense - he's young, cheap, RFA. A guy you could plug in for a year and move on from when you have a better idea of what your team is.

It is possible that they flip expansion draft guys for draft picks

 

[My3Sons]

I think people are ignoring the cap aspects of the expansion process. If SEA takes Tarasenko, Voracek, Eberle, and Giordano, that's 28M in cap space. Over 1/3 or the cap in 4 guys. They are *required* to take 30 guys, meaning they'd only have 53.5M to bring in an additional 26 players.

There are also guys like Zucker (5.5M) and Niederreiter (5.5M) available, and this is ignoring side deals that could see a guy like Henrique (5.1M) heading to SEA.

That's kinda the point of the ED. Teams are intentionally leaving good but overpaid players unprotected so that SEA can bail them out of bad contracts. Guys on good deals are not getting exposed.

They simply have to take some very low <1M salary guys just to make the cap work. In that context, a guy like Bastian makes a lot of sense - he's young, cheap, RFA. A guy you could plug in for a year and move on from when you have a better idea of what your team is.

If Bastian cannot be sent down without waivers I could see him end up back in NJ at some point next season if he does not get off to a good start for SEA.

 

[MartyOwns]

still want to give them a 4th to take butcher if they aren't already inclined to.

 

[My3Sons]

still want to give them a 4th to take butcher if they aren't already inclined to.

Think of Butcher as a cap dump. He has little to no value for SEA most likely. What would be the cost to clear Butcher's contract as a dump in this environment? A low first? A second? Hard to see SEA interested in a fourth to eat that much cap. If Butcher had any value as a player something tells me that NJ would have traded him already.