1) For most draft class you have 8-10 16 years old that are already playing like 18-19 years old. That number for this draft is barely 1 (Raty). 2021 isnt bad for Ds, but these guys will take a long time and none are like Byram - Drysdale. There's 12-15 guys in 2022 and 8-10 in 2023.
You have to realize something at some point: a 16 years old already has 12 years of development in them. One year of development at that stage is only 6-7% more. We already know who will be good in 2022, 2023 and names are starting to come out for 2024. We already know 2022 and 2023 will be much much stronger than 2021 at least at the top. This is not me saying it, just read the scouts, they know.
You have to also track the number of exceptional status beeing applied for. Here are the 2023s:
Expect the WHL's Exceptional Status barrier to be broken after Bedard, Yager and Heidt apply - TheHockeyNews
Bedard is likely to get it.
In the 2022s, Wright is already number 1 solidified. And Savoie was refused exception status in the WHL where they never granted it yet, but hes been playing nearly like an exceptional status.
2) Any year without blue chips prospects from Canada, US, Sweden and Russia is a weak year. 2021 is weak for all of these countries. They all have a big hole in production in 2021.