Who do you consider Cup favorites now?

[Kyle McMahon]

People selling the Islanders short. If any coach can dismantle Washington, it's probably the one who was inside their dressing room for the past 4 years. Unfortunately, the books are not selling them short. Atlantic Final might prove to be the kingmaker for a 4th consecutive year.

 

[bobholly39]

Same as Betonline

I love seeing Tampa at 12/1 and not further down. I know they're down 0-3 but they're also that same team from the reg season, so bumping them down to 50/1 or such would have seemed extreme.
In a similar vein - Pittsburgh also is above Carolina despite being down 0-3 vs 0-2. Same idea, and I like it.

Caps at #1 makes sense.

Blues at #2 is too much imo.

Having both Leafs and Boston at a similar 12/1 seems lazy.

edit - I didn't even notice NYI at #2 lol. I think that's a bit high for them...I like teams in the west better at least.

 

[BahlDeep]

You're succumbing to recency bias.

It's actually not that much of a recency bias. The way they are shutting down the offensive juggaurnaut Tampa Bay can't be overlooked. They have an excellent line-up.

 

[illpucks]

Caps and Knights

Dunno if Caps can beat Vegas with Stone

 

[LamorielloAndSon]

Bruins
Blues
Flames
Caps
Isles
jackets

If the isles get to the second round they could absolutely upset the caps, same goes for the jackets and bruins

 

[Bear of Bad News]

It's actually not that much of a recency bias. The way they are shutting down the offensive juggaurnaut Tampa Bay can't be overlooked. They have an excellent line-up.

Looking at the Blue Jackets' most recent three games isn't much of a recency bias? Okay.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Really? After watching your own team be systematically dismantled by the Islanders, you don't give them a chance to beat the caps? Are you watching?

I think the isles are playing great. Same with Columbus. I think Washington is at the top of their game though, they can handle forecheck and physicality that Tampa and Pittsburgh as currently constructed can't.

 

[Edgy]

You're succumbing to recency bias.

No more so than the ones that declared Tampa/Boston/Caps/Pens to be the cup favorite based on their recent regular season performance. Nor if you only take past playoffs history performance as an indicator would it be be any more accurate than the recent performance by the CBJ.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

No more so than the ones that declared Tampa/Boston/Caps/Pens to be the cup favorite based on their recent regular season performance. Nor if you only take past playoffs history performance as an indicator would it be be any more accurate than the recent performance by the CBJ.

If you want to say that people reacting to the most recent 82-game regular season sample (prior to the start of the playoffs) are just as susceptible to recency bias as those reacting to the most recent three-game postseason sample (now), then nothing I can say will probably convince you to believe otherwise.

I'd recommend studying up on the actual concept, however. We could use more behavioral economics around here.

Although I'm not sure that people picking the Penguins as the Cup favorite (per your comment above) were doing so based upon the recent regular season performance. What leads you to believe that they were?

 

[tony d]

Boston or St.Louis.

 

[SPV]

Washington

Gotta stick with the Champs until proven otherwise.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

The answer is the Caps. Islanders will be a cake walk for them

I am pretty sure the Pens thought the same thing.

 

[lorwood]

I am pretty sure the Pens thought the same thing.

Yep, keep walking towards that juicy piece of cheese never mind those steel jaws ready to clamp down....

 

[BMOK33]

People selling the Islanders short. If any coach can dismantle Washington, it's probably the one who was inside their dressing room for the past 4 years. Unfortunately, the books are not selling them short. Atlantic Final might prove to be the kingmaker for a 4th consecutive year.

The only chance the Isles have is Carolina taking Washington deep to 6 or 7 and or the Caps tiring out from having played 102 games just a year ago. There's a tendency for cup winners to run out of steam regardless the next postseason but tiring them out in round 1 is a good start.

 

[ThreeLeftSkates]

Yep, keep walking towards that juicy piece of cheese never mind those steel jaws ready to clamp down....

You know mousetrap is just a kid's game, right?
Both teams need to get there first, we are doing our part.

 

[TrufleShufle]

If you want to say that people reacting to the most recent 82-game regular season sample (prior to the start of the playoffs) are just as susceptible to recency bias as those reacting to the most recent three-game postseason sample (now), then nothing I can say will probably convince you to believe otherwise.

I'd recommend studying up on the actual concept, however. We could use more behavioral economics around here.

Although I'm not sure that people picking the Penguins as the Cup favorite (per your comment above) were doing so based upon the recent regular season performance. What leads you to believe that they were?

Hypothetical situation-

TBL loses next game
Person 1- "Well TBL won't win the cup this year"

Person 2- "Recency bias"

P1- "No, it's literally impossible because they are now out of the playo-"

P2- "RECENY BIAS"

 

[Bear of Bad News]

Hypothetical situation-

TBL loses next game
Person 1- "Well TBL won't win the cup this year"

Person 2- "Recency bias"

P1- "No, it's literally impossible because they are now out of the playo-"

P2- "RECENY BIAS"

Sigh. Nope. Try again.

Among the things I'm not suggesting is that Tampa is still a Cup favorite.

Recency bias isn't a particularly difficult concept, even when you put words in my mouth "hypothetically".

 

[Alexei Yashvalev]

Going to say still Washington.

 

[N o o d l e s]

I think the favorite was Washington anyway. Tampa did nothing to address their issues vs WAS other than earn a shit ton of points.

 

[TrufleShufle]

Sigh. Nope. Try again.

Among the things I'm not suggesting is that Tampa is still a Cup favorite.

This isn't a particularly difficult concept, even when you put words in my mouth "hypothetically".

So what are you saying? An entire regular season is too long for recency bias, but getting swept is too short, but 3 hockey games is the perfect size to fall within the definition of "recency bias?"

Not putting words in your mouth, legitimately asking what your are saying.

 

[gtrower]

I love seeing Tampa at 12/1 and not further down. I know they're down 0-3 but they're also that same team from the reg season, so bumping them down to 50/1 or such would have seemed extreme.
In a similar vein - Pittsburgh also is above Carolina despite being down 0-3 vs 0-2. Same idea, and I like it.

Caps at #1 makes sense.

Blues at #2 is too much imo.

Having both Leafs and Boston at a similar 12/1 seems lazy.

edit - I didn't even notice NYI at #2 lol. I think that's a bit high for them...I like teams in the west better at least.

Lines are from today so the NYI number is taking into account that they’re up 3-0 right now while every West matchup is split. They’ll probably slide down a little relative to the other teams once the 2R starts (assuming they close out the pens).
Same with CBJ. Whoever wins the BOS/TOR will be the favorites with the Caps (again assuming they advance) from the East at the start of the next round.

 

[triggrman]

I love seeing Tampa at 12/1 and not further down. I know they're down 0-3 but they're also that same team from the reg season, so bumping them down to 50/1 or such would have seemed extreme.
In a similar vein - Pittsburgh also is above Carolina despite being down 0-3 vs 0-2. Same idea, and I like it.

Caps at #1 makes sense.

Blues at #2 is too much imo.

Having both Leafs and Boston at a similar 12/1 seems lazy.

edit - I didn't even notice NYI at #2 lol. I think that's a bit high for them...I like teams in the west better at least.

don't confuse betting odds with winning odds.

 

[kicksavedave]

Am I reading this correctly? Why would the Lightning be 12/1 but Pens are 40/1?

Better players

Isn't the Vegas line stuff based pretty much just on where the betting money is going? Apparently some people still think TB can win the Cup (LOL) but almost no one thinks the Pens can (also LOL)

 

[PuckSeparator]

BJs FTW.

 

[34]

Columbus looks like they mean business.

Another dark horse is NYI.